U.s. Scientists See Long Fight Against Ebola

[bripat9643]

This Ebola outbreak is really getting scare. How can they control it after 100,000 people come down with it?

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/13/w...-long-fight-against-ebola.html?ref=world&_r=1

The deadly Ebola outbreak sweeping across three countries in West Africa is likely to last 12 to 18 months more, much longer than anticipated, and could infect hundreds of thousands of people before it is brought under control, say scientists mapping its spread for the federal government.

“We hope we’re wrong,” said Bryan Lewis, an epidemiologist at the Virginia Bioinformatics Institute at Virginia Tech.

Both the time the model says it will take to control the epidemic and the number of cases it forecasts far exceed estimates by the World Health Organization, which said last month that it hoped to control the outbreak within nine months and predicted 20,000 total cases by that time. The organization is sticking by its estimates, a W.H.O. spokesman said Friday.

But researchers at various universities say that at the virus’s present rate of growth, there could easily be close to 20,000 cases in one month, not in nine. Some of the United States’ leading epidemiologists, with long experience in tracking diseases such as influenza, have been creating computer models of the Ebola epidemic at the request of the National Institutes of Health and the Defense Department.

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[Mr. H.]

This is not fine.

 

[bripat9643]

This is not fine.

I'm surprised there is so little interest in this thread. Perhaps the title isn't scary enough.

 

[JimBowie1958]

People don't want to think about the ugly side of Reality.

 

[waltky]

Human Rights Watch says ebola crisis tests human rights...

HRW: Ebola Outbreak Tests Human Rights
September 15, 2014: West African governments are being urged to ensure human rights are respected as they battle the ongoing Ebola outbreak. Human Rights Watch says the response to the crisis has been slowed by ignorance, fear, denial and mistrust.

Human Rights Watch says protecting rights is “a crucial element in controlling the unprecedented Ebola epidemic ravaging the region.” Corinne Dufka, senior West Africa researcher, said, “We do call on these governments to adopt a human rights framework in addressing this illness, which is creating an incredible strain on these countries, which are recovering from armed conflict in the case of Sierra Leone and Liberia – and then decades of authoritarian rule in Guinea.”

She says Liberia, Guinea and Sierra Leone have histories of corruption, abuses by security forces and media restrictions. Dufka said the protection of health care workers is a top priority. At least 140 have died in the outbreak. She said many have raised concerns about a lack of protective suits and equipment needed when treating patients. “We are asking that the governments step up to the plate – that [the] international community help them do that to ensure that the right they have for protection during epidemics is respected.”

A child looks at a man suspected of suffering from the Ebola virus, while holding his hand over his nose, in a main street and busy part in Monrovia, Liberia, Friday, Sept. 12, 2014. A Western Kentucky University student has developed a way to track the Ebola virus outbreak. Armin Smailhodzic developed a smartphone app that uses Twitter data to track the virus. Western says the app could predict the spread of the virus.

Besides health professionals, Human Rights Watch said better protection is also needed for janitors, cleaning staff, drivers and burial staff. Recently, tension filled the West Pointe neighborhood of Liberia’s capital Monrovia when it was placed under quarantine. Dufka agreed that quarantines are needed at times, but said they’re often more effective in isolated communities. “Because quarantines necessarily address liberty and freedom of movement – as well as freedom to make livelihood – we’re asking that other measures that involve public education, working with the community, cooperative measures be used instead. These measures are really the least intrusive and restrictive available to be able to reach the same objective,” she said.

HRW said quarantines must be based on scientific evidence. And when they are imposed governments have an obligation to provide food, water and health care. It said that “quarantines imposed during this epidemic have frequently not met these standards…and have been applied arbitrarily and been overly broad in implementation.” There’s a gender dimension to the Ebola crisis, too. UNICEF reported that women account for 55 to 60 percent of the deaths. HRW’s Dufka said it has to due with the role women play. “Women are disproportionately represented among nurses and cleaning staff at hospitals and so on. They also care for the sick and then prepare the dead for burial. They’re also more likely to be cross-border traders. So, all of these professions and occupations leave them more vulnerable to infection.”

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