The Serious Stock Market Crash Thread

The other thread has turned into the usual mindless political hack garbage. This thread is to discuss the stock market crash without blaming everything on Republicans or Democrats by people who barely know the difference between a stock and livestock.

The UK has fallen 12% in 5 days. Switzerland has fallen 17% in 2 weeks.

Long term treasuries are up. It looks to me that, despite the stock market predicting a near term recession, investors still think the economy will be strong in the long term, and they actually think the US will still come out on top.
 
IMO, the looming government spending cuts are contributing to world wide panic.

You don't think the bad economic news from Spain and the potential for another large scale bailout of a European country has anything to do with it?
 
The other thread has turned into the usual mindless political hack garbage. This thread is to discuss the stock market crash without blaming everything on Republicans or Democrats by people who barely know the difference between a stock and livestock.

The UK has fallen 12% in 5 days. Switzerland has fallen 17% in 2 weeks.

Long term treasuries are up. It looks to me that, despite the stock market predicting a near term recession, investors still think the economy will be strong in the long term, and they actually think the US will still come out on top.

You may be right but investors buy Treasuries in a Pavlovian manner when they think the economy is slowing or there is financial stress.
 
The other thread has turned into the usual mindless political hack garbage. This thread is to discuss the stock market crash without blaming everything on Republicans or Democrats by people who barely know the difference between a stock and livestock.

The UK has fallen 12% in 5 days. Switzerland has fallen 17% in 2 weeks.

Long term treasuries are up. It looks to me that, despite the stock market predicting a near term recession, investors still think the economy will be strong in the long term, and they actually think the US will still come out on top.

You may be right but investors buy Treasuries in a Pavlovian manner when they think the economy is slowing or there is financial stress.

People that make their living off of investing act like trained dogs?

They are not buying short term bonds, which is why I think they are betting long term.
 
i got my statement today....no worries.....till i noted the close out date....7/31.....back to worries....i really try to ignore all this....just makes me nervous....i keep thinking of the movie....'splendor in the grass' where dee's father sell off his stocks to pay for her medical care and bud's father hold and goes broke when the market crashes...but then i remind myself that i pay someone to do this and they understand all this crap....i hope
 
People that make their living off of investing act like trained dogs?

Yes.

Even Graham emphasized the importance of doing everything systematically if for no other reason than to your identify errors. It is extremely dangerous not to invest like a trained dog because your emotional responses will betray you.

They are not buying short term bonds, which is why I think they are betting long term.

They are buying short term government bonds. They are also buying long term government bonds. Maybe they won't soon, I don't know.

Panic buying of gold and gold mining stocks are starting to be seen and a return to specie in some countries is a wild card that cannot be quantified but that is being dismissed without sufficient cause.
 
Thought I heard today that many people are buying 10 yr US bonds. The rates are not good, but it's all about capital preservation. Weird, people are even scared of gold a little bit, usually a safe haven when the crap hits the fan.
 
Panic buying of gold and gold mining stocks are starting to be seen and a return to specie in some countries is a wild card that cannot be quantified but that is being dismissed without sufficient cause.

Gold is not panic driven. It is driven by fundamentals. $115 Trillion in US unfunded liabilities is assurance that the US Dollar & Bonds will continue to decline in value. People who know the facts or do the math do not dismiss Gold without sufficient cause.
 
Panic buying of gold and gold mining stocks are starting to be seen and a return to specie in some countries is a wild card that cannot be quantified but that is being dismissed without sufficient cause.

Gold is not panic driven. It is driven by fundamentals. $115 Trillion in US unfunded liabilities is assurance that the US Dollar & Bonds will continue to decline in value. People who know the facts or do the math do not dismiss Gold without sufficient cause.
I bolded your fallacy. You don't think there are enough people who can't do their own research or math that you can ignore their effects do you? Ignorance and innumeracy is surprisingly widespread and among those who are neither you have to subtract out the easily swayed.
 
Panic buying of gold and gold mining stocks are starting to be seen and a return to specie in some countries is a wild card that cannot be quantified but that is being dismissed without sufficient cause.

Gold is not panic driven. It is driven by fundamentals. $115 Trillion in US unfunded liabilities is assurance that the US Dollar & Bonds will continue to decline in value. People who know the facts or do the math do not dismiss Gold without sufficient cause.

There is some panic buying of gold. I don't like being exposed when there is panic buying because fear can turn on a dime, and thus so can gold prices. I like it when gold is going up because fiat currencies are being debased. That is a long-term trend that is easier to navigate. Fear is a short-term trend that is difficult to navigate. I am expecting a break in gold some time over the next few weeks as the panic subsides.
 
I think this is just a panic adjustment based on the realization that this functional if not technical recession will be around for a while.

The market is functioning as it should.
 
Panic buying of gold and gold mining stocks are starting to be seen and a return to specie in some countries is a wild card that cannot be quantified but that is being dismissed without sufficient cause.

Gold is not panic driven. It is driven by fundamentals. $115 Trillion in US unfunded liabilities is assurance that the US Dollar & Bonds will continue to decline in value. People who know the facts or do the math do not dismiss Gold without sufficient cause.

There is some panic buying of gold. I don't like being exposed when there is panic buying because fear can turn on a dime, and thus so can gold prices. I like it when gold is going up because fiat currencies are being debased. That is a long-term trend that is easier to navigate. Fear is a short-term trend that is difficult to navigate. I am expecting a break in gold some time over the next few weeks as the panic subsides.

Where will the funding for the $115 Trillion in US unfunded liabilities come from? See: US Debt Clock

I assume there will be a compromise. 1/3 in cuts, 1/3 in higher tax revenues & 1/3 from currency debasement. So 1/3 of the $115 Trillion unfunded liabilities = $38.33 Trillion in currency debasement over the next 10 years.

NPR says US unfunded liabilities come to $211 Trillion. Clearly this puts way further up shit creek without a paddle.

NPR: A National Debt Of $14 Trillion? Try $211 Trillion
"If you add up all the promises that have been made for spending obligations, including defense expenditures, and you subtract all the taxes that we expect to collect, the difference is $211 trillion. That's the fiscal gap," he says. "That's our true indebtedness."
 
Last edited:

Forum List

Back
Top