The limit of North Korea's technology

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Dec 9, 2008
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Several experts believe missiles that North Korea paraded this month in Pyongyang are fakes because a closer study of photographs of the weapons reveals odd inconsistencies in their design. Experts spotted a number of strange features on the purported missiles. For instance, the warheads do not appear capable of separating from the missiles, a key stage in ensuring proper flight. The question that remains is whether the missiles were mockups of a real missile that is being developed or simply phony missiles wheeled out for show.

North Korea missiles put on parade are fakes, experts say - latimes.com
 
North Korea Will Try Again With Missile Launch...
:mad:
NKorea says it will launch long-range rocket soon
Dec 1, 2012 : Last long-range attempt fizzled in April
North Korea announced Saturday that it would attempt to launch a long-range rocket in mid-December, a defiant move just eight months after a failed April bid was widely condemned as a violation of a U.N. ban against developing its nuclear and missile programs. The launch, set for Dec. 10 to 22, is likely to heighten already strained tensions with Washington and Seoul as the United States prepares for Barack Obama's second term as U.S. president and South Korea holds its own presidential election on Dec. 19.

This would be North Korea's second launch attempt under leader Kim Jong Un, who took power following his father Kim Jong Il's death nearly a year ago. The announcement by North Korea's space agency followed speculation overseas about stepped-up activity at North Korea's west coast launch pad captured in satellite imagery. A spokesman for North Korea's Korean Committee for Space Technology said scientists have "analyzed the mistakes" made in the failed April launch and improved the precision of its Unha rocket and Kwangmyongsong satellite, according to the official Korean Central News Agency.

KCNA said the launch was a request of late leader Kim Jong Il, whose Dec. 17, 2011, death North Koreans are expected to mark with some fanfare. The space agency said the rocket would be mounted with a polar-orbiting Earth observation satellite, and maintained its right to develop a peaceful space program. Washington considers North Korea's rocket launches to be veiled covers for tests of technology for long-range missiles designed to strike the United States, and such tests are banned by the United Nations.

North Korea has capable short- and medium-range missiles, but long-range launches in 1998, 2006, 2009 and in April of this year ended in failure. North Korea is not known to have succeeded in mounting an atomic bomb on a missile but is believed to have enough weaponized plutonium for at least half a dozen bombs, according to U.S. experts, and in 2010 revealed a uranium enrichment program that could provide a second source of material for nuclear weapons. Six-nation negotiations on dismantling North Korea's nuclear program in exchange for aid fell apart in early 2009.

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Granny says if dey launch it onna Dec. 21st - it gonna be the end o' the world...
:eek:
US: Situation 'dangerous' ahead of NKorea launch
Dec 6,`12 -- The commander of American troops in Japan said Thursday that the situation ahead of North Korea's planned launch of a long-range rocket this month is "very dangerous."
Lt. Gen. Salvatore Angelella said U.S. troops in the country are closely monitoring activity in North Korea as it prepares for the launch. He said the United States sees the launch as a violation of U.N. restrictions in place to keep North Korea from developing its long-range missile capabilities. "This is a very dangerous situation, and we do not support those actions by North Korea. ... We are monitoring the situation closely," Angelella, who commands the roughly 50,000 U.S. troops in Japan, said at a news conference in Tokyo.

He said U.S. troops are working closely with the Japanese to protect the country's citizens and territory. He declined to give details. Two U.S. officials said Wednesday that the Navy had begun moving several ships into the western Pacific. North Korea has announced it will launch the rocket between Dec. 10 and 22. It attempted a similar launch in April, but it failed shortly after liftoff.

Also on Thursday, a Japanese man who served as a chef to the North Korean leadership and visited the country earlier this year said the planned rocket launch was meant to honor the late leader Kim Jong Il. Kenji Fujimoto, Kim's personal sushi chef from 1988-2001, said he believes the late leader's son and successor, Kim Jong Un, was backing the launch to show respect for his father.

Fujimoto said that despite its apparent determination to defy international appeals against the rocket launch, Pyongyang wants better relations with the West. Fujimoto settled in Japan after leaving Pyongyang and has written several memoirs. He visited North Korea for several weeks last summer, saying he was fulfilling a promise he had made to the younger Kim before he left.

Source
 
Granny says send in the drones, zap `em with a Stuxnet virus...
:eusa_eh:
North Korea nuclear test branded 'serious threat' to US
12 February 2013 - The US defence secretary said the US must be prepared to "deal with" North Korea's threat
North Korean military ambitions are a "serious threat" to the US, outgoing Pentagon chief Leon Panetta has said. In a speech made after Pyongyang carried out its third nuclear test, Mr Panetta likened the North to Iran, describing them as "rogue states". In New York, the UN Security Council "strongly condemned" the nuclear test. The council said it would begin work on measures against North Korea, after UN chief Ban Ki-moon said the test was a "clear and grave violation". Earlier, Pyongyang said "even stronger" action might follow, saying its test was a response to US "hostility". North Korea warned the US in advance that it intended to conduct a nuclear test, the state department said, but did not say when it would happen.

US President Barack Obama spoke to his South Korean counterpart Lee Myung-bak to coordinate a response. He "unequivocally reaffirmed" the US defence commitment to South Korea, "including the extended deterrence offered by the US nuclear umbrella," the White House said. Nuclear test monitors in Vienna say the underground explosion had double the force of the last test, in 2009, despite the use of a device said by the North to be smaller. If a smaller device was indeed tested, analysts said this could take Pyongyang closer to building a warhead small enough to arm a missile. UN sanctions on North Korea were expanded after the secretive communist state launched a rocket in December, in a move condemned by the UN as a banned test of missile technology.

'Stern' message

North Korea's latest nuclear test comes as senators in Washington prepare for the first votes on whether to confirm Chuck Hagel as successor to current Defence Secretary Leon Panetta. In a farewell speech at the Pentagon, Mr Panetta said the US would continue to be tested by unpredictable regimes in years to come. "We're going to have to deal with weapons of mass destruction and the proliferation. We're going to have to continue with rogue states like Iran and North Korea. "We just saw what North Korea's done in these last few weeks - a missile test and now a nuclear test. They represent a serious threat to the United States of America. We've got to be prepared to deal with that." President Obama, who is to make his State of the Union speech later, called the test a "highly provocative act" and called for "swift" and "credible" international action in response. China, North Korea's main ally and a veto-wielding member of the Security Council, summoned North Korea's ambassador to Beijing to express its concern over the test.

Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi delivered a "stern representation"' to Ji Jae Ryong and expressed China's "strong dissatisfaction and firm opposition'' to the test, the Chinese foreign ministry said in a statement. Earlier, it urged the North to honour its commitment to denuclearisation and "not take any actions which might worsen the situation". The test was condemned by North Korea's immediate neighbours, South Korea and Japan, while Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov called for a revival of talks on the North's nuclear arms programme. In a defiant message to the UN's disarmament forum, the North said it would never bow to resolutions on its nuclear programme and blamed the failure of diplomacy on the US. "The US and their followers are sadly mistaken if they miscalculate the DPRK [North Korea] would respect the entirely unreasonable resolutions against it," the North's envoy, Jon Yong Ryong, told the Conference on Disarmament in Geneva.

'Miniaturised' device

See also:

North Korea’s nuclear test: Third time unlucky?
12 February 2013 - Widely tagged as unpredictable, sometimes North Korea is anything but. In 2006 and 2009, it launched long-range rockets. The latter, but not the former, was claimed as a satellite launch.
Not content with one big bang, in both cases a nuclear test followed within weeks. Each was roundly condemned by unanimous UN Security Council (UNSC) resolutions, and sanctions applied. A defiant North Korea rejected these and insisted on its right to a nuclear deterrent. Hence 2012's two big rocket launches - a damp squib in April, then a resounding success in December which really did put a satellite in orbit - made it highly likely that a third nuclear test would follow.

In January Pyongyang, feigning anger at the latest unanimous censure from the UNSC, as good as confirmed this. Satellite photos of its test site at Punggye-ri in Kilju county in the remote north-east clearly showed that preparations were under way. We now learn that China and the US were formally notified yesterday, although no date was given. The test is thus no surprise. At 11:57 local time (02:57 GMT), South Korea detected a seismic tremor from Kilju of magnitude 4.9. The defence ministry in Seoul put the force of the explosion at 6-7 kilotons (Hiroshima was 15kT), making it the North's biggest bang yet after less than 1kT in 2006 - possibly a partial failure - and 4.6 kT in 2009.

Both bigger and smaller

Confirming the test soon after, the North Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) boasted of "an atomic warhead that is lighter and miniaturised but with a big explosive charge". That claim cannot be confirmed, but a key tipping point would be if Pyongyang can indeed make its big bang small enough to fit on one of its big rockets - meaning it would then have a viable nuclear weapon to threaten its neighbours and beyond. World condemnation was swift. South Korea's outgoing President Lee Myung-bak entered a bunker to hold a security meeting. Markets in Seoul were more blase. Analysts attributed a 0.26% stock market fall to foreign-led selling for commercial reasons, not political.

The South's next (and first female) leader, Park Geun-hye, who takes office on 25 February, also strongly criticised a test which shatters, or at least postpones, her hopes of easing Lee's hard line and building "trustpolitik" with the North. Ms Park is reorganising the security team in the Blue House (presidential office), and has been slow to choose her cabinet. This is not a good time for those who will soon be in charge in Seoul to look, still less be, unprepared. The timing resonates north of the Demilitarised Zone too. Just as December's missile soared a year after Kim Jong-il's demise, the nuclear test marks the late "dear leader's" birthday on 16 February.

Both are filial Confucian gestures by his young son and heir, Kim Jong-un: reassuring any doubters at home (perhaps the military) and abroad that he, and North Korea, are no pushover. The timing is piquant elsewhere too. US President Barack Obama, who swiftly called the test "highly provocative", had hoped to focus on jobs in his State of the Union address due later today. His first term policy of "strategic patience" with Pyongyang now looks complacent. China meanwhile is on holiday to welcome in the Year of the Snake. In March its new leader Xi Jinping will assume the state presidency; he already heads the ruling Communist Party. He could do without this rude greeting and challenge from a regime kept afloat by Chinese aid and trade.

Keep calm and carry on
 
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Granny says, "Obviously sanctions ain't worked so far...
:cuckoo:
NKorea to face sanctions for nuke, but China key
Feb 14,`13 -- For the past decade, the world's most powerful nations have turned to sanctions in an attempt to punish North Korea for a series of rocket launches and nuclear tests. Their stated goal: to stop North Korea's march toward acquiring an arsenal of nuclear-armed long-range missiles.
The sanctions, however, have failed to slow Pyongyang down. It conducted a third nuclear test Tuesday despite warnings of more international punishment. Once again countries are looking to the United Nations to tighten already harsh multilateral sanctions. But the U.S. and its allies will also consider boosting their own national penalties against North Korean companies and individuals. Here's a look at these countries' current non-U.N. sanctions and the reasons why many argue that for any real change to happen in North Korea, a reluctant China must also embrace tough, unilateral penalties against its ally.

CHINA

China is seen as the only major power with any real influence on North Korea as it pursues nuclear weapons. It provides most of North Korea's fuel, a good deal of its food and accounts for an increasing share of its trade and investment. But despite recurring nuclear and missile tests by Pyongyang, Beijing has been reluctant to take unilateral action against a neighbor it sees as a valuable buffer between U.S. troops stationed in South Korea and Japan. "China can make a difference," said Andrei Lankov, a professor at Kookmin University in Seoul. "The question is whether it will make a difference." Beijing's current options range from issuing harsh condemnation to supporting sterner U.N. sanctions, something it did after the North launched a rocket in December that the U.N. said was a cover for a banned missile test.

But many outsiders are pushing for more, including calls for China to restrict its food and fuel aid. Beijing, for example, could turn "off the spigot of the Daqing pipeline that supplies (North Korea) with much of its oil, as Beijing did nearly a decade ago in March 2003," according to Elizabeth Economy, an Asia specialist at the Council on Foreign Relations. But Kim Dong-gil, deputy director of the Center for Korean Peninsula Studies of Peking University, said that although China will likely sign on to whatever measures are agreed upon at the U.N., he strongly doubts China will take unilateral action against the North.

China's "unpleasant choice," Lankov said, is "between a nuclear, relatively stable North Korea, and a non-nuclear but unstable North Korea." For China, political collapse in North Korea "is a greater evil than North Korea's nuclear adventures." Still, there is growing disgust among the government and the public in China with Pyongyang's behavior. The nuclear test, which took place less than 100 kilometers (62 miles) from the Chinese border, was widely criticized on China's popular Twitter-like Weibo microblogging service, with users calling it anti-social and urging the government to reconsider its assistance to the Pyongyang. "Can China really allow this insane country to have nuclear weapons," wrote a user identified as Little Eagle King.

UNITED STATES

See also:

Diplomat confirms Iran nuke upgrade
Feb 14,`13 -- A senior diplomat is confirming Tehran's announcement that it has started upgrading its nuclear program. He says that U.N. officials just back from Iran saw new machines positioned to vastly accelerate output of material usable both for reactor fuel and nuclear warheads.
The diplomat said Thursday that the officials saw a small number of advanced centrifuges for enriching uranium at the Natanz plant southeast of Tehran. His comments follow Iran's announcement the day before.

But while Iran said installation had begun, the diplomat said the officials only saw machines positioned for installation Wednesday.

The machines are much faster than ones now enriching. Iran says it only wants reactor fuel but the centrifuges can also produce fissile warhead material. The diplomat demanded anonymity because his information was confidential.

Source
 
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Beijing's condemnation of North Korea’s behaviour is obviously a half-hearted gesture to assuage the international community's anxiety over its Communist ally's nuclear programme and the Chinese government’s official news agency praised North Korea’s “determination to fight against the hostile policies of the United States and Japan with more powerful means.” It's natural that China stands firm with North Korea rather than playing a prominent role in resolving the nuclear crisis as expected, considering its traditional hostility towards the US and Japan.

We will see what China does about proposed United Nations sanctions, but if it follows its past practice, it will water them down while going along just enough to maintain its pretense as a responsible international player. We can be reasonably certain, however, that Beijing will not exercise its unique leverage as North Korea’s main supplier of fuel and food. Its rationale, echoed by many in the West, is that the mere threat of pressure would trigger Pyongyang’s collapse and send a flood of refugees across the border. That argument suggests that China cares more about the North Korean regime’s survival than the regime does itself.
North Korea, China do their usual dance - CSMonitor.com
 

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