Republican Delegate Math

[Paulie]

As there are only 1,238 outstanding delegates remaining, santorum needs 892 of them! Over 70% to win the nomination.

1048 delegates so far rewarded
So Santorum has near 252 delegates right now/1048 delegate=24% of the delegates so far! He needs to start winning like he did in Kananas everywhere! That's Not going to happen in New york, where Romney could get over the 50%, meaning "If a candidate receives more than 50% of the vote, that candidate receives all 34 delegates." New York Republican Delegation 2012

Romney could pull out of New york 75 delegates to 20 for Santorum! Why, just look at the map of the congressional districs within new york city...Only about a dozen are within reach for Santorum. http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/6c/NY-districts-108.JPG
Pa: Pennsylvania Republican Delegation 2012 and the congressional distric map! http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/94/PA-districts-108.JPG Romney is going to win some of those philly and pitts districs just like he won the ones around Chicogo that made his delegate blow out possible.

Both Pa and New york are like Ill in the way they pick there delegates. Kind of sucks for Santorum.

Washinton DC(19), Delware(17), New Jersey, Utah(40) are all winner take all! All Romney!

Indiana Indiana Republican Delegation 2012 of course Santorum could do pretty good here, but I doubt good enough! File:IN-districts-108.JPG - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia Good because the districs are spread out.

Nc, maybe good or bad...But not enough. North Carolina Republican Delegation 2012

Califorina fucking sucks for Santorum! California Republican Delegation 2012 Easily 35 of the states 53 congressional districs lay within LA and San franfuckingsicko! No fucking way is Santorum going to win them either. http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f3/CA-districts-108.JPG

Texas
Thursday 7 June - Saturday 9 June 2012: The Texas Republican State Convention convenes in Fort Worth where the National Convention delegates are elected according to the results of the primary. [General Rules for All Conventions and Meetings. Rule 38. Sections 6, 7, 8, 9]

108 district delegates are elected: 3 from each of the state's 36 congressional districts.
44 at-large delegates (10 base at-large delegates plus 34 bonus delegates) are elected.
Delegates are elected by Presidential Preference from the Congressional districts in which their candidate received the highest percentage of the vote, providing the candidate received 20% or more of the vote, until the candidates delegate allotment is fulfilled. Then, the process is repeated for the 2nd highest vote getter. Once all Congressional district delegates are selected, the At-Large delegates are selected.

In addition, 3 party leaders, the National Committeeman, the National Committeewoman, and the chairman of the Texas's Republican Party, will attend the convention as unpledged delegates by virtue of their position.

Texas Republican Delegation 2012

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/52/TX-districts-109.JPG

Well, Texas is kind of like a mixture of Tenn, New york, ill all in one. Nasty mix for Santorum as most of the districs are in romney strong holds. URBAN area's and cities!

Wv- West Virginia Republican Delegation 2012 Likely to be nice to Santorum.

Kenturky, Ark are favorable for Santorum...These with Neb are Santorums best chance at getting another Kanasas! None of them are winner take all...More like Ok, Tenn, Miss in the way they hand out the delegates. NOT GOOD FOR santorum.
New mexico, Oregon=Romney.
Montana is a toss up!

Almost forgot! Wisconsin...
Tuesday 3 April 2012: 42 of Wisconsin's delegates to the Republican National Convention are allocated to presidential contenders in today's Wisconsin Presidential Primary.

24 district delegates are to be allocated to presidential contenders based on the primary results in each of the 8 congressional districts: each congressional district is assigned 3 National Convention delegates and the presidential contender receiving the greatest number of votes in that district will receive all 3 of that district's National Convention delegates. [Republican Party of Wisconsin Constitution Article X Section 3.]
18 at-large delegates (10 base at-large delegates plus 5 bonus delegates plus 3 party leaders) are to be allocated to the presidential contender receiving the greatest number of votes in the primary statewide. [Republican Party of Wisconsin Constitution Article X Section 4.] http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/0a/WI-districts-108.JPG

Romney will likely win the 1, 4, 5, 6 districs at least. Very liberal part of That state...Up state Santorum will do fairly good.

The reality on the ground makes it nearly impossible for Santorum to get anywhere near the 70% of the remaing delegates needed to win. LA will just make it worst!

Most of these delegates are not even "awarded" yet. Every caucus state has a different process than the primary states and it is not winner take all, or even proportional. It's entirely based on the convention process that hasn't even gotten to the district level yet.

How do you people not know this by now??

 

[BluePhantom]

Most of these delegates are not even "awarded" yet. Every caucus state has a different process than the primary states and it is not winner take all, or even proportional. It's entirely based on the convention process that hasn't even gotten to the district level yet.

How do you people not know this by now??

We do. It's already been discussed. There may be some slight variation in how those states eventually award their delegates but for the most part it will relatively close to the results of the caucus. The only major change will be if someone drops out of the race prior to the state conventions and they have a bunch of delegates that they normally would have given to that person. The idea that the state convention is going to say "fuck you" to the voters and give them all to Ron Paul or Santorum, or whoever is a pipe dream. That kind of thinking is the last gasp of hope for supporters of those candidates and it's not going to come to fruition.

 

[Paulie]

Most of these delegates are not even "awarded" yet. Every caucus state has a different process than the primary states and it is not winner take all, or even proportional. It's entirely based on the convention process that hasn't even gotten to the district level yet.

How do you people not know this by now??

We do. It's already been discussed. There may be some slight variation in how those states eventually award their delegates but for the most part it will relatively close to the results of the caucus. The only major change will be if someone drops out of the race prior to the state conventions and they have a bunch of delegates that they normally would have given to that person. The idea that the state convention is going to say "fuck you" to the voters and give them all to Ron Paul or Santorum, or whoever is a pipe dream. That kind of thinking is the last gasp of hope for supporters of those candidates and it's not going to come to fruition.

This simply isn't true. Many of the caucus states where Santorum won the popular vote beauty contest, he's not even coming close in delegates in their county conventions. Missouri for instance...Romney and Paul have gotten the plurality of delegates so far in the county conventions, which means they're most likely to end up with delegates after state level. That's happening in Washington, Colorado, Maine, and Nevada. Ron Paul delegates have the entire slate out of Clark County, Nevada for instance, even though Romney won the popular vote in that county. This is something the media isn't reporting. They only want to focus on projections rather than actually report what's happening in the conventions all around the country, which would be the most accurate portrayal of the delegate process so far.

You literally need to read a myriad of local news reports from all over the country right now to really know the delegate situation. When it comes to delegates for party nomination, it's all local.

 

[uscitizen]

Republicans also have derivative delegates.

 

[Paulie]

Here's why Santorum isn't going to win many, if any, delegates out of Missouri:

NEWS ANALYSIS: Romney, Paul camps form alliance in Missouri - Columbia Missourian

Santorum won Missouri's nonbinding presidential primary in February, sweeping all 114 counties and the city of St. Louis after he was the only Republican candidate to campaign before the election. But Santorum did not score a clean sweep Saturday, when Republicans caucused at nearly 140 sites in a first step toward allotting Missouri's delegates to particular presidential candidates.

Although Santorum's supporters turned out in significant numbers, they got outmaneuvered in some caucuses when Paul proponents paired up with Romney followers to form a majority coalition. The alliance brought together some of the Republican Party's traditional insiders — supporting Romney — and its fringe activists — supporting Paul — to potentially deny delegates to Santorum, the candidate most capable of mounting a challenge to the front-running Romney.

Nationally, Romney leads the Republican race with 521 delegates, compared with Santorum's 253, Newt Gingrich's 136 and Paul's 50, according a count by The Associated Press.

Missouri's 52 delegates are not yet included in that tally. That's because the local caucuses that occurred this past weekend — as well others scheduled for Saturday in Jackson County and St. Louis — did not bind delegates to particular presidential candidates. Rather, the county and township caucuses are choosing 2,123 people to advance to regional Republican conventions April 21 and a state party convention June 2, where delegates will be given to presidential candidates.

Paul supporters dominated Saturday's caucus in Boone County, where he had campaigned two days earlier. They paired with a smaller Romney contingent to elect a slate of 48 Paul delegates and five Romney delegates to advance to the next round in the selection process. Santorum was shut out.

Santorum supporters were also outflanked in the Republican stronghold of Greene County. A Paul-Romney alliance resulted in a slate allotting 65 delegates to Paul, 40 to Romney and six to Santorum.

A similar alliance turned back Santorum supporters in the Capitol's home of Cole County, where Romney backers comprised the bulk of the 35 delegates with some also going to Paul supporters.

In Franklin County, Santorum carried the plurality on an initial vote of separate delegate slates put forward by the three camps. But during a break, Paul and Romney supporters combined forces, resulting in victory for a revised 40-person delegate slate in which Paul supporters comprised a little less than two-thirds of the delegates and Romney supporters comprised more than one-third. Santorum supporters were left with nothing.

"The Ron Paul people and the Romney people were willing to work together because they wanted to get some delegates to the next level, and that was the way to do it," said Jedidiah Smith, a Paul delegate from Franklin County. "It's not so much that they see eye-to-eye together."

The article goes on to mention that Santorum delegates narrowly managed to avoid this in St. Louis County, however.

But for the most part, Santorum isn't going to have much support at the district convention level, which is going to really hurt him on getting support through that level and on to the state convention where the final binding slate of delegates is chosen. Santorum is most likely not going to have any delegates out of Missouri.

This is happening all over the country and the national TV media isn't reporting it.

 

[BluePhantom]

Here's why Santorum isn't going to win many, if any, delegates out of Missouri:


But for the most part, Santorum isn't going to have much support at the district convention level, which is going to really hurt him on getting support through that level and on to the state convention where the final binding slate of delegates is chosen. Santorum is most likely not going to have any delegates out of Missouri.

This is happening all over the country and the national TV media isn't reporting it.

I KNOW...We have already discussed this. Those are delegates to the state conventions not the states delegates for the nomination. Big difference. Just because they are Paul supporters does not mean they will automatically cast their vote at the convention for Paul. Some will, yes, but at the convention it will be debated, discussed, and pointed out that giving their delegates to Paul is a complete fucking waste of time because he has ZERO chance of getting the nomination. ZERO.

They will also begin to recognize that giving their delegates to Paul will make them the fucking laughing stock of the nation and so they will either line up behind Romney (possible), try in vain to force a brokered convention by giving them to someone other than Romney (probably Gingrich or Santorum), or they will simply go by the results of the caucus on April 21 or a slight variation of it (most likely).

But if you honestly think that the Missouri Republican Party is going to allow the wishes of the voters to be completely ignored you are out of your ever loving mind.

 

[BluePhantom]

You are completely misunderstanding how this works Paulie. The delegates to the state convention you are talking about are not the guys who will be going to the Republican National Convention. Those guys are high party officials within the state. I know...I looked into being one in 2008 and in order to be one of those delegates you have to have powerful standing within the party.

Now all those Paul supporters at the state convention can screech and cry all they want and they can vote to give the state delegates to Paul en masse...but it will not work out that way in the end. The state Republican party flat out will not direct their delegates to the national convention to vote for Paul when he has 10% support in their state and the delegates to the national convention will not be Paul supporters. So whatever noise they make at the state conventions will largely be irrelevant. The state Republican party will ignore that.

 

[Paulie]

You are completely misunderstanding how this works Paulie. The delegates to the state convention you are talking about are not the guys who will be going to the Republican National Convention. Those guys are high party officials within the state. I know...I looked into being one in 2008 and in order to be one of those delegates you have to have powerful standing within the party.

Now all those Paul supporters at the state convention can screech and cry all they want and they can vote to give the state delegates to Paul en masse...but it will not work out that way in the end. The state Republican party flat out will not direct their delegates to the national convention to vote for Paul when he has 10% support in their state and the delegates to the national convention will not be Paul supporters. So whatever noise they make at the state conventions will largely be irrelevant. The state Republican party will ignore that.

You clearly have no idea how the process works.

 

[BluePhantom]

Regardless, the total number of unbound delegates for Romney in my analysis is 113. So let's just give Romney only 1/3rd of those (38). So now Romney has to make up 75 delegates. The most recent polls in Wisconsin (winner take all state) have Romney with a strong lead. There's 42 of that 75 right there. If Romney pulls 50% in New York (which I think he will) that 50 more delegates and Romney has made up the difference and then some, regardless of the unbound delegate element. Even if he doesn't pull 50% in New York he still only needs 33 delegates and remember that I set the proportional states low. Romney will get far more delegates in reality than my analysis suggests so he will make up that 33 easy.

The unbound delegate argument is a pipe dream.


2012 Wisconsin Republican Primary - Rasmussen Reports™

 

[Paulie]

You have no clue how parliamentary procedure works. At the state convention, if a majority of floor members elect a slate of Ron Paul delegates to go to the national convention, that's binding.

The only way the GOP could stop it from happening is by not allowing the floor to nominate and elect a chairman that will accept the vote of a Ron Paul slate, which is against their own rules as it is.

The whole process is dictated by Roberts Rules of Order, which is typical convention parliamentary procedure in a party convention. If there's a majority of Ron Paul delegates on the floor, the motion to elect a new chairman can and must pass.

This is playing by the GOP's own rules. But sometimes, as we've seen in some of these county conventions around the country, the GOP tries to break its own rules. Sometimes it succeeds and sometimes it fails.

 

[BluePhantom]

You are completely misunderstanding how this works Paulie. The delegates to the state convention you are talking about are not the guys who will be going to the Republican National Convention. Those guys are high party officials within the state. I know...I looked into being one in 2008 and in order to be one of those delegates you have to have powerful standing within the party.

Now all those Paul supporters at the state convention can screech and cry all they want and they can vote to give the state delegates to Paul en masse...but it will not work out that way in the end. The state Republican party flat out will not direct their delegates to the national convention to vote for Paul when he has 10% support in their state and the delegates to the national convention will not be Paul supporters. So whatever noise they make at the state conventions will largely be irrelevant. The state Republican party will ignore that.

You clearly have no idea how the process works.

Oh I have a perfect understanding of how this works. Paul pulled 12% of the vote in the February 7th Missouri primary where Santorum and Romney combined for 80%. The Missouri caucus is on April 21st and while Paul does better in caucuses than primaries he still won't pull more than 20%. Now you think...honestly....that the Missouri Republican Party is going to allow their delegates to the national convention to go primarily to Ron Paul when he has roughly 10%-15% support in the state? Do you have any idea what the political fallout would be in that state?

If you honestly think the Missouri Republican Party is going to let that happen then you need to stop licking the psychoactive toads, brother. Regardless....as I pointed out in post #49....it doesn't matter. Take away 2/3rd of the unbound delegates assigned to Romney and he will still win it.

 

[Paulie]

You are completely misunderstanding how this works Paulie. The delegates to the state convention you are talking about are not the guys who will be going to the Republican National Convention. Those guys are high party officials within the state. I know...I looked into being one in 2008 and in order to be one of those delegates you have to have powerful standing within the party.

Now all those Paul supporters at the state convention can screech and cry all they want and they can vote to give the state delegates to Paul en masse...but it will not work out that way in the end. The state Republican party flat out will not direct their delegates to the national convention to vote for Paul when he has 10% support in their state and the delegates to the national convention will not be Paul supporters. So whatever noise they make at the state conventions will largely be irrelevant. The state Republican party will ignore that.

You clearly have no idea how the process works.

Oh I have a perfect understanding of how this works. Paul pulled 12% of the vote in the February 7th Missouri primary where Santorum and Romney combined for 80%. The Missouri caucus is on April 21st and while Paul does better in caucuses than primaries he still won't pull more than 20%. Now you think...honestly....that the Missouri Republican Party is going to allow their delegates to the national convention to go primarily to Ron Paul when he has roughly 10%-15% support in the state? Do you have any idea what the political fallout would be in that state?

If you honestly think the Missouri Republican Party is going to let that happen then you need to stop licking the psychoactive toads, brother. Regardless....as I pointed out in post #49....it doesn't matter. Take away 2/3rd of the unbound delegates assigned to Romney and he will still win it.

Ok, you're embarrassing yourself. First of all, Missouri already held their popular vote, it was a non-binding primary on Feb. 7. Right now they're currently in the process of their state-wide county level conventions which is what I just linked in that news article. There's no more popular voting to be held in Missouri. It's all conventions from here on out.

Second, I have no idea where you're getting this "20%" thing from. Everything that happens from here on out is based on how many slates of delegates the campaigns push through each convention. Romney and Paul are winning the majority of the county convention delegate slates, so they will be in the best position to elect delegate slates at the congressional district conventions, and then the state convention.

You're proving that you have no clue what you're talking about. The GOP leadership doesn't just get to decide what delegates win and lose. That's not the way it works in this country. In a republic, the minority can and does win in spite of majority support for their opposition. It doesn't matter if Paul only has X% of popular votes, because if he has the majority of delegates he wins. The GOP leadership can't change that. It's against their own rules.

 

[Paulie]

The April 21st date you're talking about in Missouri is the date of their congressional district conventions. Those delegates that are selected at those conventions are not bound yet, they simply move on to the state convention. Since Romney and Paul are winning the plurality of delegates in most of the Missouri county conventions, they are going to have the most representation at the district conventions, and therefore will have the highest percentage of possibility of winning slates to the state convention.

It's all about representation.

 

[BluePhantom]

Ok, you're embarrassing yourself. First of all, Missouri already held their popular vote, it was a non-binding primary on Feb. 7. Right now they're currently in the process of their state-wide county level conventions which is what I just linked in that news article. There's no more popular voting to be held in Missouri. It's all conventions from here on out.

Second, I have no idea where you're getting this "20%" thing from. Everything that happens from here on out is based on how many slates of delegates the campaigns push through each convention. Romney and Paul are winning the majority of the county convention delegate slates, so they will be in the best position to elect delegate slates at the congressional district conventions, and then the state convention.

You're proving that you have no clue what you're talking about. The GOP leadership doesn't just get to decide what delegates win and lose. That's not the way it works in this country. In a republic, the minority can and does win in spite of majority support for their opposition. It doesn't matter if Paul only has X% of popular votes, because if he has the majority of delegates he wins. The GOP leadership can't change that. It's against their own rules.

No my friend...you are embarrassing yourself. There are a total of 567 unpledged delegates nationwide. I have given Romney 113 of them which is roughly 20% and that's all he needs to secure the nomination, and frankly he probably only needs about 10%. Now if you are going to sit here and try to make the argument that Romney can't pull 10% of the unpledged delegates nationwide, you are completely out of your skull.

Second, if you are going to sit here and try to make the argument that the state party (Republican or Democrat) of any state (Missouri or otherwise) are going to sit back and allow the lion's share of their delegates to go to a guy who has 12% of their constituents' support, you are not only out of your skull, you exist in a completely different plane of reality.

Parliamentary procedure be damned. They are simply not going to allow a 12% candidate to get 50% of the delegates and if that means changing the rules in the middle of the game, that's exactly what they will do. Paul supporters will cry about being disenfranchised, but who is really being disenfranchised if they allow that is the 88% of the people who oppose Paul.

This is why arguing with a Paul supporter is so frustrating. They have absolutely no grasp on reality....which of course is why they support Paul in the first fucking place.

 

[LibertyForAll]

The April 21st date you're talking about in Missouri is the date of their congressional district conventions. Those delegates that are selected at those conventions are not bound yet, they simply move on to the state convention. Since Romney and Paul are winning the plurality of delegates in most of the Missouri county conventions, they are going to have the most representation at the district conventions, and therefore will have the highest percentage of possibility of winning slates to the state convention.

It's all about representation.

I am a missourian so I have some first hand experience on this. There was a push by the GOP to have the delegates bound to the primary results. This was submitted as a rule to be voted on in most of the townships at the caucus. In mine and several others this rule was passed so our entire slate of 10 was bound to santorum at the county and state level in the first round of voting. It's unclear at this point how many delegates are bound. I do know for a fact that one of the largest counties went to Ron Paul. Portions of many other slates went to him as well. There was a spreadsheet running at one point but it was locked and removed. They did decide to have the St. Charles caucus again and that will be huge for the Paul campaign. There are several caucuses tomorrow too and a few are rather large. Ron Paul did very well here in the caucuses but whether or not he has a majority isn't clear but the campaign office seems be confident. I saw a piece earlier that said he is also probably going to get all of Iowa too.

 

[LibertyForAll]

Ok, you're embarrassing yourself. First of all, Missouri already held their popular vote, it was a non-binding primary on Feb. 7. Right now they're currently in the process of their state-wide county level conventions which is what I just linked in that news article. There's no more popular voting to be held in Missouri. It's all conventions from here on out.

Second, I have no idea where you're getting this "20%" thing from. Everything that happens from here on out is based on how many slates of delegates the campaigns push through each convention. Romney and Paul are winning the majority of the county convention delegate slates, so they will be in the best position to elect delegate slates at the congressional district conventions, and then the state convention.

You're proving that you have no clue what you're talking about. The GOP leadership doesn't just get to decide what delegates win and lose. That's not the way it works in this country. In a republic, the minority can and does win in spite of majority support for their opposition. It doesn't matter if Paul only has X% of popular votes, because if he has the majority of delegates he wins. The GOP leadership can't change that. It's against their own rules.

No my friend...you are embarrassing yourself. There are a total of 567 unpledged delegates nationwide. I have given Romney 113 of them which is roughly 20% and that's all he needs to secure the nomination, and frankly he probably only needs about 10%. Now if you are going to sit here and try to make the argument that Romney can't pull 10% of the unpledged delegates nationwide, you are completely out of your skull.

Second, if you are going to sit here and try to make the argument that the state party (Republican or Democrat) of any state (Missouri or otherwise) are going to sit back and allow the lion's share of their delegates to go to a guy who has 12% of their constituents' support, you are not only out of your skull, you exist in a completely different plane of reality.

Parliamentary procedure be damned. They are simply not going to allow a 12% candidate to get 50% of the delegates and if that means changing the rules in the middle of the game, that's exactly what they will do. Paul supporters will cry about being disenfranchised, but who is really being disenfranchised if they allow that is the 88% of the people who oppose Paul.

This is why arguing with a Paul supporter is so frustrating. They have absolutely no grasp on reality....which of course is why they support Paul in the first fucking place.

The statistics I saw said only 8% of republicans voted in the primary how do you figure that 88% of people would be disenfranchised? 88% of 8% maybe but a lot of people didn't even vote in that primary because it was advertised as non-binding and pointless. I am one of them and I intended to caucus to get my vote in. It's the caucus that matters here so the disenfranchisement argument goes to the people that showed up for that.

 

[BluePhantom]

Oh Jesus Christ. Quit worrying about what Paul will get. It's completely irrelevant. All that matters is whether Romney can get to 1,144. If he does that it makes no fucking difference what Paul or anyone else does.

Now Romney has secured 154 delegates from the winner take all states of Florida, Virginia, Arizona, and Idaho. He will win the winner take all states of Maryland, DC, Delaware, California, New Jersey, and Utah. The only recent poll of Wisconsin has him up by double digits so assuming he wins there that's 377 more secured for a total of 531 bound delegates.

Now in the bound primaries to this point he has scored the following: New Hampshire (7), Nevada (14), Michigan (16), Georgia (19), Ohio (38), Tennessee (16), Oklahoma (13), Massachusetts (38), Alaska (8), Vermont (9), Kansas (7), Alabama (11), Mississippi (12), Hawaii (9), American Samoa (9), Puerto Rico (20), and Illinois (42) for a total of 288 bound delegates. Combined with the above, that's 819.

For the remaining bound proportional primaries we will project low with the following numbers:

Louisiana: 25% of 46 = 11 delegates
New York: 47% of 95 = 45 delegates
Pennsylvania: 20% of 72 = 14 delegates
Connecticut: 47% of 28 = 13 delegates
Rhode Island: 47% of 19 = 9 delegates
North Carolina: 31% of 55 = 17 delegates
Indiana: 25% of 46 = 12 delegates
West Virginia: 40% of 31 = 12 delegates
Oregon: 47% of 28 = 13 delegates
Kentucky: 30% of 45 = 14 delegates
Arkansas: 20% of 36 = 7 delegates
Texas: 25% of 155 = 39 delegates
South Dakota: 20% of 28 = 6 delegates
New Mexico: 40% of 23 = 9 delegates

That's a low estimate of 221 bound delegates for a total of 1,040

Now there are the uncommitted RNC. 34 of them have committed so far and 27 of those have committed to Romney; an almost 80% committal rate for RNC delegates. That's 1,067. Now of the states that have gone already there are 57 delegates that have not been designated but will be by the RNC. Hell let's cut Romney's current rate in half and just give him 40% of those instead of the 80% he is getting. That's 23 more for 1,090 bound delegates.

That means he needs 54 of the 567 unbound delegates nationwide to clinch the election. That's roughly 9.5% of them. Now is anyone going to try and sit here and make the argument that Romney will not get 9.5% of those unpledged delegates? Seriously? Would anyone even try to argue he will get less than 20% let alone 9.5%?

 

[BluePhantom]

Louisiana: 25% of 46 = 11 delegates

UPDATE: Well Romney pulled 27%. 20 of Louisiana's 46 delegates were tied to the primary and Romney got 7 of those. That means he needs 4 more from the 26 delegates that are given by the high officials of the Louisiana State Republican Party. He will get that easily and frankly he will probably get at least 9...maybe as many as 14-15.

He won't get all 26 because the Louisiana GOP will want to appear to be paying attention to the will of the people, but those delegates can do whatever they want. What will happen is that the state GOP will recognize that Romney is a done deal so they will want to give him a solid portion of those delegates so if (when) Romney becomes president and Louisiana needs a favor, they can go to him and say "we had your back the whole time". The last thing they want in that situation is to go to the President and say "we wanted the other guy".

Even if they give those 26 according to the proportional results of the primary Romney would get 7, three more than the estimate I gave him.

So Santorum won the battle in Louisiana, but Romney did what he had to do in the state to win the war.

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/LA-R

 

[Paulie]

Ok, you're embarrassing yourself. First of all, Missouri already held their popular vote, it was a non-binding primary on Feb. 7. Right now they're currently in the process of their state-wide county level conventions which is what I just linked in that news article. There's no more popular voting to be held in Missouri. It's all conventions from here on out.

Second, I have no idea where you're getting this "20%" thing from. Everything that happens from here on out is based on how many slates of delegates the campaigns push through each convention. Romney and Paul are winning the majority of the county convention delegate slates, so they will be in the best position to elect delegate slates at the congressional district conventions, and then the state convention.

You're proving that you have no clue what you're talking about. The GOP leadership doesn't just get to decide what delegates win and lose. That's not the way it works in this country. In a republic, the minority can and does win in spite of majority support for their opposition. It doesn't matter if Paul only has X% of popular votes, because if he has the majority of delegates he wins. The GOP leadership can't change that. It's against their own rules.

No my friend...you are embarrassing yourself. There are a total of 567 unpledged delegates nationwide. I have given Romney 113 of them which is roughly 20% and that's all he needs to secure the nomination, and frankly he probably only needs about 10%. Now if you are going to sit here and try to make the argument that Romney can't pull 10% of the unpledged delegates nationwide, you are completely out of your skull.

Second, if you are going to sit here and try to make the argument that the state party (Republican or Democrat) of any state (Missouri or otherwise) are going to sit back and allow the lion's share of their delegates to go to a guy who has 12% of their constituents' support, you are not only out of your skull, you exist in a completely different plane of reality.

Parliamentary procedure be damned. They are simply not going to allow a 12% candidate to get 50% of the delegates and if that means changing the rules in the middle of the game, that's exactly what they will do. Paul supporters will cry about being disenfranchised, but who is really being disenfranchised if they allow that is the 88% of the people who oppose Paul.

This is why arguing with a Paul supporter is so frustrating. They have absolutely no grasp on reality....which of course is why they support Paul in the first fucking place.

Do you realize you fucking moron, that the GOP doesn't just get to skirt parliamentary procedure just because they might not like the outcome? IF a majority of delegates on the floor of the convention nominate a certain slate, that's binding. The GOP doesn't have any recourse other than to break their own rules, which if we watch what went down in Missouri last week, they end up losing that battle. They tried doing that in St. Charles County, and the majority Paul delegates reconvened at a later date and nominated a slate of delegates the LEGAL way.

Why you don't seem to understand that the process has certain RULES, is beyond me. Majority of popular votes is not what dictates our electoral process in this country. This is a representative republic. The minority can win if it organizes properly. That's how it works in this country.

Embrace it.

 

[BluePhantom]

Do you realize you fucking moron, that the GOP doesn't just get to skirt parliamentary procedure just because they might not like the outcome? IF a majority of delegates on the floor of the convention nominate a certain slate, that's binding. The GOP doesn't have any recourse other than to break their own rules, which if we watch what went down in Missouri last week, they end up losing that battle. They tried doing that in St. Charles County, and the majority Paul delegates reconvened at a later date and nominated a slate of delegates the LEGAL way.

Why you don't seem to understand that the process has certain RULES, is beyond me. Majority of popular votes is not what dictates our electoral process in this country. This is a representative republic. The minority can win if it organizes properly. That's how it works in this country.

Embrace it.

And do you realize, you fucking moron, that you are arguing a completely irrelevant point? Romney could get zero delegates in Missouri and he will still win without a brokered convention. It doesn't seem to be sinking into your head that at the end of the day Romney will need about 10% of the total delegates you keep harping about to win the nomination without a brokered convention.

Paul will not win. Give it the fuck up.