Republican Delegate Math

Discussion in 'Politics' started by BluePhantom, Mar 21, 2012.

  1. BluePhantom
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    BluePhantom Educator (of liberals)

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    So let's have a look at where things stand and what is to come.

    According to RCP we currently have the following delegate count (1,144 needed to secure the nomination):

    Romney: 560
    Santorum: 246
    Gingrich: 141
    Paul: 66

    Now keep in mind that Illinois still has 17 delegates to hand out and those will go to Romney, but let's just give him 13 of them for now. That brings him to 573. Now let's have a look at the winner take all states that Romney is pretty much a lock to win: Maryland (37), District of Columbia (19), Delaware (17), California (172), New Jersey (50), and Utah (40). That's 335 total and added to his previous number that's 908. Now New York and Connecticut are winner take all if someone scores 50% of the vote. I tend think he will in both those states but let's say, just for argument, that he scores about the same as Illinois with 47%. That's 58 more for a total of 966.

    Now let's look at the proportional states and assign him the following percentages (which I will set low):

    Louisiana: 25% of 46 = 11 delegates
    Missouri: 20% of 52 = 10 delegates
    Pennsylvania: 20% of 72 = 14 delegates
    Rhode Island: 47% of 19 = 9 delegates
    North Carolina: 31% of 55 = 17 delegates
    Indiana: 25% of 46 = 12 delegates
    West Virginia: 40% of 31 = 12 delegates
    Nebraska: 20% of 35 = 7 delegates
    Oregon: 47% of 28 = 13 delegates
    Kentucky: 30% of 45 = 14 delegates
    Arkansas: 20% of 36 = 7 delegates
    Texas: 25% of 155 = 39 delegates
    South Dakota: 20% of 28 = 6 delegates
    Montana: 25% of 26 = 7 delegates
    New Mexico: 40% of 23 = 9 delegates

    Sub-total = 187
    Grand Total = 1,153

    Even with low proportional figures, Romney wins the nomination....no brokered convention, nothing. Done, over, finished, kaput.

    Well what if Gingrich drops out? Well according to Gallup Gingrich voters are split evenly between Romney and Santorum (and in fact there's a one point edge to Romney) so all it would do is get Romney to the nomination faster. This one is done and over with. Romney will be the nominee, end of story.

    RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Republican Delegate Count

    Romney, Santorum Tie as Gingrich Voters' Second Choice
     
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  2. BluePhantom
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    BluePhantom Educator (of liberals)

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    So with the below analysis the writing is on the wall here. The following questions must be asked:

    1) Isn't it finally time for Santorum and Gingrich to simply pack it up and throw support behind Romney?

    2) Isn't it time for Santorum, Paul, and Gingrich supporters to accept reality and start asking the question: "am I really going to vote for Obama or refuse to vote out of protest and allow Obama to win?"

    3) Isn't it time for Santorum to shut the hell up and stop giving the media juicy sound bytes that serve only to humiliate the Republican Party and give the left weapons with which to stereotype the Republican Party?
     
  3. BreezeWood
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    BreezeWood VIP Member Supporting Member

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    Winning with less than half the vote (consistently) is what keeps the other candidates in the race.
     
  4. BluePhantom
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    No what keeps them in the race is money and power...or at least the possibilities of both. Gingrich is about broke. His Super-PACs are fine but they cannot give money to Newt's campaign directly and his campaign is pretty much penniless at this point. He's gotten about 9% of all the available delegates since Super Tuesday and no one is going to continue contributing with that kind of performance. He may stay in through April 3rd when there are three primaries (Maryland, DC, and Wisconsin) but he will get crushed in all of them and after that he will drop because he won't go bankrupt for a losing cause.

    Santorum is still in because he is hoping to force a brokered convention so he can pressure Romney to give him VP, Secretary of State, something of that nature. If he could force a brokered convention I would say "fine...go for it. That's the way the game is played". But he's not going to be able to do that. The math is pretty clear. So there's no benefit to him anymore. All he is doing is helping Obama at this point.
     
  5. GuyPinestra
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    GuyPinestra Senior Member

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    Funny thing about your delegate count, you're assigning delegates to candidates that AREN'T pledged, and those delegates can support whomever they wish. In the caucus states, most of those unpledged delegates will be going to Ron Paul, NOT 1 of the 3 Stooges. If all 4 candidates stay in until the end there will be a brokered convention, bet on it.
     
  6. Decepticon
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    Decepticon BANNED

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    LMAO at Ron Paul's teeny delegate count.

    [​IMG]
     
  7. GuyPinestra
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    GuyPinestra Senior Member

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    Is that your boyfriend in that picture?
     
  8. BluePhantom
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    As far as unpledged delegates, yes they can vote for whomever they wish. There are a total of 567 unpledged delegates. You think the majority of those are going to Paul?!?!?! :lmao: You dream, my friend.

    Let's just have a quick look at Iowa which is a non-binding caucus. Paul pulled in 21% of the vote. Now you think that the delegates who represent the 50% that voted for Santorum or Romney are going to say "well fuck it...we're casting our ballot for Paul?" That's the most asinine thing I have ever heard.


    http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/state/ia
     
    Last edited: Mar 21, 2012
  9. Dr.Traveler
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    Dr.Traveler Mathematician

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    Yeah, the math simply isn't there. The proportional delegate states pretty much guarantee Mitt is the nominee. At this point Santorum can't win outright. His only hope now is that Newt drops and Romney collapses completely in all of the remaining states. And even at that point, he'd be forcing a brokered convention.

    I don't think that all or even a large portion of the unpledged delegates will go to Paul, but I do think that if the convention is brokered, Paul would do FAR better than anyone expects. If that situation becomes possible it'll be the Paul supporters that have to motivation at this point to make a push at convention.
     
  10. Conservative
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    And it's not your teeny 'delegate count' we all laugh at:eusa_whistle:
     
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