Republican Delegate Math

[BluePhantom]

So let's have a look at where things stand and what is to come.

According to RCP we currently have the following delegate count (1,144 needed to secure the nomination):

Romney: 560
Santorum: 246
Gingrich: 141
Paul: 66

Now keep in mind that Illinois still has 17 delegates to hand out and those will go to Romney, but let's just give him 13 of them for now. That brings him to 573. Now let's have a look at the winner take all states that Romney is pretty much a lock to win: Maryland (37), District of Columbia (19), Delaware (17), California (172), New Jersey (50), and Utah (40). That's 335 total and added to his previous number that's 908. Now New York and Connecticut are winner take all if someone scores 50% of the vote. I tend think he will in both those states but let's say, just for argument, that he scores about the same as Illinois with 47%. That's 58 more for a total of 966.

Now let's look at the proportional states and assign him the following percentages (which I will set low):

Louisiana: 25% of 46 = 11 delegates
Missouri: 20% of 52 = 10 delegates
Pennsylvania: 20% of 72 = 14 delegates
Rhode Island: 47% of 19 = 9 delegates
North Carolina: 31% of 55 = 17 delegates
Indiana: 25% of 46 = 12 delegates
West Virginia: 40% of 31 = 12 delegates
Nebraska: 20% of 35 = 7 delegates
Oregon: 47% of 28 = 13 delegates
Kentucky: 30% of 45 = 14 delegates
Arkansas: 20% of 36 = 7 delegates
Texas: 25% of 155 = 39 delegates
South Dakota: 20% of 28 = 6 delegates
Montana: 25% of 26 = 7 delegates
New Mexico: 40% of 23 = 9 delegates

Sub-total = 187
Grand Total = 1,153

Even with low proportional figures, Romney wins the nomination....no brokered convention, nothing. Done, over, finished, kaput.

Well what if Gingrich drops out? Well according to Gallup Gingrich voters are split evenly between Romney and Santorum (and in fact there's a one point edge to Romney) so all it would do is get Romney to the nomination faster. This one is done and over with. Romney will be the nominee, end of story.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Republican Delegate Count

Romney, Santorum Tie as Gingrich Voters' Second Choice

 

[BluePhantom]

So with the below analysis the writing is on the wall here. The following questions must be asked:

1) Isn't it finally time for Santorum and Gingrich to simply pack it up and throw support behind Romney?

2) Isn't it time for Santorum, Paul, and Gingrich supporters to accept reality and start asking the question: "am I really going to vote for Obama or refuse to vote out of protest and allow Obama to win?"

3) Isn't it time for Santorum to shut the hell up and stop giving the media juicy sound bytes that serve only to humiliate the Republican Party and give the left weapons with which to stereotype the Republican Party?

 

[BreezeWood]

Illinois: M. Romney - 46.7%

Winning with less than half the vote (consistently) is what keeps the other candidates in the race.

 

[BluePhantom]

Illinois: M. Romney - 46.7%

Winning with less than half the vote (consistently) is what keeps the other candidates in the race.

No what keeps them in the race is money and power...or at least the possibilities of both. Gingrich is about broke. His Super-PACs are fine but they cannot give money to Newt's campaign directly and his campaign is pretty much penniless at this point. He's gotten about 9% of all the available delegates since Super Tuesday and no one is going to continue contributing with that kind of performance. He may stay in through April 3rd when there are three primaries (Maryland, DC, and Wisconsin) but he will get crushed in all of them and after that he will drop because he won't go bankrupt for a losing cause.

Santorum is still in because he is hoping to force a brokered convention so he can pressure Romney to give him VP, Secretary of State, something of that nature. If he could force a brokered convention I would say "fine...go for it. That's the way the game is played". But he's not going to be able to do that. The math is pretty clear. So there's no benefit to him anymore. All he is doing is helping Obama at this point.

 

[GuyPinestra]

Funny thing about your delegate count, you're assigning delegates to candidates that AREN'T pledged, and those delegates can support whomever they wish. In the caucus states, most of those unpledged delegates will be going to Ron Paul, NOT 1 of the 3 Stooges. If all 4 candidates stay in until the end there will be a brokered convention, bet on it.

 

[Decepticon]

LMAO at Ron Paul's teeny delegate count.

 

[GuyPinestra]

LMAO at Ron Paul's teeny delegate count.

Is that your boyfriend in that picture?

 

[BluePhantom]

Funny thing about your delegate count, you're assigning delegates to candidates that AREN'T pledged, and those delegates can support whomever they wish. In the caucus states, most of those unpledged delegates will be going to Ron Paul, NOT 1 of the 3 Stooges. If all 4 candidates stay in until the end there will be a brokered convention, bet on it.

As far as unpledged delegates, yes they can vote for whomever they wish. There are a total of 567 unpledged delegates. You think the majority of those are going to Paul?!?!?! You dream, my friend.

Let's just have a quick look at Iowa which is a non-binding caucus. Paul pulled in 21% of the vote. Now you think that the delegates who represent the 50% that voted for Santorum or Romney are going to say "well fuck it...we're casting our ballot for Paul?" That's the most asinine thing I have ever heard.


http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/state/ia

 

[Dr.Traveler]

Yeah, the math simply isn't there. The proportional delegate states pretty much guarantee Mitt is the nominee. At this point Santorum can't win outright. His only hope now is that Newt drops and Romney collapses completely in all of the remaining states. And even at that point, he'd be forcing a brokered convention.

I don't think that all or even a large portion of the unpledged delegates will go to Paul, but I do think that if the convention is brokered, Paul would do FAR better than anyone expects. If that situation becomes possible it'll be the Paul supporters that have to motivation at this point to make a push at convention.

 

[Conservative]

LMAO at Ron Paul's teeny delegate count.

And it's not your teeny 'delegate count' we all laugh at

 

[PLYMCO_PILGRIM]

So let's have a look at where things stand and what is to come.

According to RCP we currently have the following delegate count (1,144 needed to secure the nomination):

Romney: 560
Santorum: 246
Gingrich: 141
Paul: 66

Now keep in mind that Illinois still has 17 delegates to hand out and those will go to Romney, but let's just give him 13 of them for now. That brings him to 573. Now let's have a look at the winner take all states that Romney is pretty much a lock to win: Maryland (37), District of Columbia (19), Delaware (17), California (172), New Jersey (50), and Utah (40). That's 335 total and added to his previous number that's 908. Now New York and Connecticut are winner take all if someone scores 50% of the vote. I tend think he will in both those states but let's say, just for argument, that he scores about the same as Illinois with 47%. That's 58 more for a total of 966.

Now let's look at the proportional states and assign him the following percentages (which I will set low):

Louisiana: 25% of 46 = 11 delegates
Missouri: 20% of 52 = 10 delegates
Pennsylvania: 20% of 72 = 14 delegates
Rhode Island: 47% of 19 = 9 delegates
North Carolina: 31% of 55 = 17 delegates
Indiana: 25% of 46 = 12 delegates
West Virginia: 40% of 31 = 12 delegates
Nebraska: 20% of 35 = 7 delegates
Oregon: 47% of 28 = 13 delegates
Kentucky: 30% of 45 = 14 delegates
Arkansas: 20% of 36 = 7 delegates
Texas: 25% of 155 = 39 delegates
South Dakota: 20% of 28 = 6 delegates
Montana: 25% of 26 = 7 delegates
New Mexico: 40% of 23 = 9 delegates

Sub-total = 187
Grand Total = 1,153

Even with low proportional figures, Romney wins the nomination....no brokered convention, nothing. Done, over, finished, kaput.

Well what if Gingrich drops out? Well according to Gallup Gingrich voters are split evenly between Romney and Santorum (and in fact there's a one point edge to Romney) so all it would do is get Romney to the nomination faster. This one is done and over with. Romney will be the nominee, end of story.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Republican Delegate Count

Romney, Santorum Tie as Gingrich Voters' Second Choice

I think this will still be going in June, just like with Obama and Clinton.

 

[GuyPinestra]

Funny thing about your delegate count, you're assigning delegates to candidates that AREN'T pledged, and those delegates can support whomever they wish. In the caucus states, most of those unpledged delegates will be going to Ron Paul, NOT 1 of the 3 Stooges. If all 4 candidates stay in until the end there will be a brokered convention, bet on it.

As far as unpledged delegates, yes they can vote for whomever they wish. There are a total of 567 unpledged delegates. You think the majority of those are going to Paul?!?!?! You dream, my friend.

Let's just have a quick look at Iowa which is a non-binding caucus. Paul pulled in 21% of the vote. Now you think that the delegates who represent the 50% that voted for Santorum or Romney are going to say "well fuck it...we're casting our ballot for Paul?" That's the most asinine thing I have ever heard.


Primaries - State Results - Election Center 2012 - Elections & Politics from CNN.com

You do understand the process by which those delegates are chosen, don't you? The votes are cast at the caucus and the majority of folks go home. Those that stay behind are the ones that want to be delegates. Delegates are elected by those that stayed, and 90% of those people are all Ron Paul supporters. YouTube is chock full of videos of those Ron Paul delegates getting disenfranchised at the State conventions.

 

[BluePhantom]

Yeah, the math simply isn't there. The proportional delegate states pretty much guarantee Mitt is the nominee. At this point Santorum can't win outright. His only hope now is that Newt drops and Romney collapses completely in all of the remaining states. And even at that point, he'd be forcing a brokered convention.

I don't think that all or even a large portion of the unpledged delegates will go to Paul, but I do think that if the convention is brokered, Paul would do FAR better than anyone expects. If that situation becomes possible it'll be the Paul supporters that have to motivation at this point to make a push at convention.

I would be surprised if Paul could pull 5% of the unbound delegates that are unofficially designated to Romney or Santorum. More than likely it will be the exact opposite. The longer this goes on the more obvious it will become that Mitt's nomination is inevitable and those unbound delegates will jump ship on everyone else.

I am not sure how much more of a collapse one can give Romney than my analysis dictates. Even if Gingrich and Paul were to drop and all their current delegates went to Santorum and Santorum got every single one of the remaining delegates from the proportional states that I laid out in my analysis, Santorum still could not force a brokered convention.

To force a brokered convention Santorum would have to do something like win New Jersey, California, pull over 50% in New York, etc. Pffft.....dream on. Won't happen.

 

[BluePhantom]

I think this will still be going in June, just like with Obama and Clinton.

It may be....but it won't change the final result.

 

[PLYMCO_PILGRIM]

I think this will still be going in June, just like with Obama and Clinton.

It may be....but it won't change the final result.

What Romney V Obama?

I think Newt wants to hold on and THINKS that he will get picked in the convention, I like newt but that wont happen, he is done

 

[Decepticon]

LMAO at Ron Paul's teeny delegate count.

And it's not your teeny 'delegate count' we all laugh at

Boy, that joke sure was funnier the second time around when YOU told it.


Why don't you write your own jokes? Oh, I forgot...just like there were no funny Nazis or funny Soviets, there are no funny CONZ.

 

[BluePhantom]

Funny thing about your delegate count, you're assigning delegates to candidates that AREN'T pledged, and those delegates can support whomever they wish. In the caucus states, most of those unpledged delegates will be going to Ron Paul, NOT 1 of the 3 Stooges. If all 4 candidates stay in until the end there will be a brokered convention, bet on it.

As far as unpledged delegates, yes they can vote for whomever they wish. There are a total of 567 unpledged delegates. You think the majority of those are going to Paul?!?!?! You dream, my friend.

Let's just have a quick look at Iowa which is a non-binding caucus. Paul pulled in 21% of the vote. Now you think that the delegates who represent the 50% that voted for Santorum or Romney are going to say "well fuck it...we're casting our ballot for Paul?" That's the most asinine thing I have ever heard.


Primaries - State Results - Election Center 2012 - Elections & Politics from CNN.com

You do understand the process by which those delegates are chosen, don't you? The votes are cast at the caucus and the majority of folks go home. Those that stay behind are the ones that want to be delegates. Delegates are elected by those that stayed, and 90% of those people are all Ron Paul supporters. YouTube is chock full of videos of those Ron Paul delegates getting disenfranchised at the State conventions.

Oh will you guys stop crying about Paul voters being disenfranchised? He's in last place because roughly 10% of the primary voters support him and nothing else. Jeez.

 

[BluePhantom]

I think this will still be going in June, just like with Obama and Clinton.

It may be....but it won't change the final result.

What Romney V Obama?

That would be the final result, yes.

 

[PLYMCO_PILGRIM]

It may be....but it won't change the final result.

What Romney V Obama?

That would be the final result, yes.

LOL that has been obvious to everyone but santoru/newt/paul and their supporters for about a month now...maybe even longer

 

[BluePhantom]

What Romney V Obama?

That would be the final result, yes.

LOL that has been obvious to everyone but santoru/newt/paul and their supporters for about a month now...maybe even longer

Well that's kind of the point of the thread. You see guys like GP and others on USMB holding out for hope that someone will pull ahead of Romney or somehow there will be a brokered convention that will force a compromise candidate, and what I am demonstrating is that it simply won't happen. The math is pretty damn clear that there will not be a brokered convention barring a complete miracle like the aforementioned "Santorum wins California" scenarios. Forget it. It's time to stop the bickering about Romney vs. Santorum/Paul/Gingrich and start to focus on Romney vs. Obama.