Republican Delegate Math

[GuyPinestra]

As far as unpledged delegates, yes they can vote for whomever they wish. There are a total of 567 unpledged delegates. You think the majority of those are going to Paul?!?!?! You dream, my friend.

Let's just have a quick look at Iowa which is a non-binding caucus. Paul pulled in 21% of the vote. Now you think that the delegates who represent the 50% that voted for Santorum or Romney are going to say "well fuck it...we're casting our ballot for Paul?" That's the most asinine thing I have ever heard.


Primaries - State Results - Election Center 2012 - Elections & Politics from CNN.com

You do understand the process by which those delegates are chosen, don't you? The votes are cast at the caucus and the majority of folks go home. Those that stay behind are the ones that want to be delegates. Delegates are elected by those that stayed, and 90% of those people are all Ron Paul supporters. YouTube is chock full of videos of those Ron Paul delegates getting disenfranchised at the State conventions.

Oh will you guys stop crying about Paul voters being disenfranchised? He's in last place because roughly 10% of the primary voters support him and nothing else. Jeez.

Nobody is crying, will you get you head out of the sand long enough to realize that if the Party can get away with it against Ron Paul, it may be YOUR candidate NEXT?

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JF_bGuZ8H0A]TruthTV - OK County GOP Excludes RP Delegates, Supporters Fight Back and Win Majority - YouTube[/ame]

 

[The Rabbi]

As far as unpledged delegates, yes they can vote for whomever they wish. There are a total of 567 unpledged delegates. You think the majority of those are going to Paul?!?!?! You dream, my friend.

Let's just have a quick look at Iowa which is a non-binding caucus. Paul pulled in 21% of the vote. Now you think that the delegates who represent the 50% that voted for Santorum or Romney are going to say "well fuck it...we're casting our ballot for Paul?" That's the most asinine thing I have ever heard.


Primaries - State Results - Election Center 2012 - Elections & Politics from CNN.com

You do understand the process by which those delegates are chosen, don't you? The votes are cast at the caucus and the majority of folks go home. Those that stay behind are the ones that want to be delegates. Delegates are elected by those that stayed, and 90% of those people are all Ron Paul supporters. YouTube is chock full of videos of those Ron Paul delegates getting disenfranchised at the State conventions.

Oh will you guys stop crying about Paul voters being disenfranchised? He's in last place because roughly 10% of the primary voters support him and nothing else. Jeez.

But..but...all my friends on internet chat boards support Paul. It must be stolen elections!!
Paul has failed to win a single nomination. He has performed about on par with every other election he's run in. And it isn't because people don't know anything about him. It is the more they find out the less appealing he becomes.

Anyway, back from Planet Moonbeams.
I voted for Santorum in the TN primary because every time he opens his mouth libs have a stroke. That's worth something right there.
But your excellent analysis is probably correct. Romney will be the winner. If he can run as something other Obama-lite he might have a chance. But if he simply parrots Obama's rhetoric, as McCain did, then he will fail massively.
The question for conservatives is why we have not been able to field a decent winning candidate in two election cycles.

 

[LibertyForAll]

You do understand the process by which those delegates are chosen, don't you? The votes are cast at the caucus and the majority of folks go home. Those that stay behind are the ones that want to be delegates. Delegates are elected by those that stayed, and 90% of those people are all Ron Paul supporters. YouTube is chock full of videos of those Ron Paul delegates getting disenfranchised at the State conventions.

Oh will you guys stop crying about Paul voters being disenfranchised? He's in last place because roughly 10% of the primary voters support him and nothing else. Jeez.

But..but...all my friends on internet chat boards support Paul. It must be stolen elections!!
Paul has failed to win a single nomination. He has performed about on par with every other election he's run in. And it isn't because people don't know anything about him. It is the more they find out the less appealing he becomes.

Anyway, back from Planet Moonbeams.
I voted for Santorum in the TN primary because every time he opens his mouth libs have a stroke. That's worth something right there.
But your excellent analysis is probably correct. Romney will be the winner. If he can run as something other Obama-lite he might have a chance. But if he simply parrots Obama's rhetoric, as McCain did, then he will fail massively.
The question for conservatives is why we have not been able to field a decent winning candidate in two election cycles.

Because most republicans are retarded neocons like you.

 

[The Rabbi]

yeah, that's it. If Ron Paul can't get elected it's our fault.
Keep saying it, wookie boy.

 

[PLYMCO_PILGRIM]

That would be the final result, yes.

LOL that has been obvious to everyone but santoru/newt/paul and their supporters for about a month now...maybe even longer

Well that's kind of the point of the thread. You see guys like GP and others on USMB holding out for hope that someone will pull ahead of Romney or somehow there will be a brokered convention that will force a compromise candidate, and what I am demonstrating is that it simply won't happen. The math is pretty damn clear that there will not be a brokered convention barring a complete miracle like the aforementioned "Santorum wins California" scenarios. Forget it. It's time to stop the bickering about Romney vs. Santorum/Paul/Gingrich and start to focus on Romney vs. Obama.

OH I would love a better conservative canidate than romney myself.

Other than romneycare I was really happy with romney as my governor when he was here, he did right by the taxpaying citizens of my state (other than romneycare, aka forced purchase of insurance or face fines just like obamacare does now).

I think Ron Paul is the best canidate up there as far as my personal values go but I just don't think he is presidential at all.....i like newt just because he makes me laugh and has a way of getting his point across in simple terms for the masses....santorum, never liked him. All 3 I don't think would be good presidents.

 

[Dr.Traveler]

The question for conservatives is why we have not been able to field a decent winning candidate in two election cycles.

I doubt you'll be able to field one for the next 10 cycles honestly. This cycle is making it clear just how huge Citizen's United really is. Every time a candidate tries to get momentum, Romney and his Super PAC's swing in and crush the opposition under ginormous piles of cash.

While a Conservative might enjoy a large amount of grassroots support in the GOP Primaries, it'll be RINO's that end up draw in the large cash donations that will carry the day thanks to United. It'll be hard to draw in corporate money when you're on record against bailouts, earmarks, etc.

Romney is sitting at a solid 60% of GOP voters do NOT want him as the candidate. United is the reason he's winning and will continue to do so.

Now what'll be really really interesting is what United means in the General. Obama's campaign is taking notes watching how Romney is using United and he's going to be as well funded as Romney in the General. This'll be a nasty nasty hard fought fight. It certainly won't be a slam dunk for anyone.

 

[BluePhantom]

But..but...all my friends on internet chat boards support Paul. It must be stolen elections!!
Paul has failed to win a single nomination. He has performed about on par with every other election he's run in. And it isn't because people don't know anything about him. It is the more they find out the less appealing he becomes.

WORD!

Anyway, back from Planet Moonbeams.
I voted for Santorum in the TN primary because every time he opens his mouth libs have a stroke. That's worth something right there.
But your excellent analysis is probably correct. Romney will be the winner. If he can run as something other Obama-lite he might have a chance. But if he simply parrots Obama's rhetoric, as McCain did, then he will fail massively.
The question for conservatives is why we have not been able to field a decent winning candidate in two election cycles.

Two reasons:

1) The nation is split pretty evenly into thirds. 1/3 is Democrat, 1/3 is Republican, and 1/3 is Independent. It varies a little as things happen, but generally speaking that's about how it goes. So what that means is that Democrats and Republicans alone can't win an election; it will always come down to who can swing the Independents. Any extreme position (left or right) will drive the Independents away, BUT the media puts the spotlight more on right-wing extremism than left-wing extremism. So when it's a contest of extremes the left will generally win because of the biased media coverage. When it's an extremist vs. a moderate, the moderate will generally win. This brings us to....

2) McCain was proving the first point correct in 2008. McCain the moderate had pulled ahead of Obama the extremist in late summer / early Autumn. All signs were pointing toward a solid McCain win...THEN the market crashed and the Democrats (strongly aided by the media) blamed it all on Bush and the GOP. That was the end of McCain and the rest is history.


So the answer to your question is: "because a hard-left liberal is seen by Independents as an asshole where a hard-right conservative is seen as crazy." And let's be honest here; it's not like Santorum is doing a lot to dispel the myth, ya know?

 

[Dr.Traveler]

2) McCain was proving the first point correct in 2008. McCain the moderate had pulled ahead of Obama the extremist in late summer / early Autumn. All signs were pointing toward a solid McCain win...THEN the market crashed and the Democrats (strongly aided by the media) blamed it all on Bush and the GOP. That was the end of McCain and the rest is history.


So the answer to your question is: "because a hard-left liberal is seen by Independents as an asshole where a hard-right conservative is seen as crazy."

There were two other factors I'd put out there too when it comes to McCain's loss in 2008. One is that once the GOP ended up getting the blame for the crash, McCain botched the job with the "Let's all go back to Washington and fix this!". The GOP base largely felt (and still feel) that it was Washington that caused the mess. Saying that Washington could fix the mess alienated his base.

The Second was the Palin pick. She was definitely more of a Conservative than McCain, but that ended up drowning out his more moderate stances and alienating Moderates. You don't win without the moderates, and so McCain lost.

Honestly, once Obama moved to the middle there was absolutely no difference in platform between McCain and Obama. McCain was pro-Mandate while Obama was Pro-Single Payer. That was about it.

 

[amrchaos]

Illinois: M. Romney - 46.7%

Winning with less than half the vote (consistently) is what keeps the other candidates in the race.

Romney may consistently win with less than 50% of the vote, but he is consistently winning more than 50% of the delegates.

Santorum and Gingrich did not prepare for the nomination process, Romney did. That is why Romney will win.

Thinking along these terms, why would anyone support an unprepared candidate to begin with? That is what Democrats do!! You only need to look at Obama and realize the dangers!!

 

[BluePhantom]

There were two other factors I'd put out there too when it comes to McCain's loss in 2008. One is that once the GOP ended up getting the blame for the crash, McCain botched the job with the "Let's all go back to Washington and fix this!". The GOP base largely felt (and still feel) that it was Washington that caused the mess. Saying that Washington could fix the mess alienated his base.

Possibly. I can see the argument for that. At the end of the day after the market crashed Obama and the media did a better job of laying blame then McCain did of pointing out what he and the GOP had done to try to avoid the collapse and were blocked by the Democrats. At that point, even though what McCain was saying was the truth, no one wanted to hear it.

The Second was the Palin pick. She was definitely more of a Conservative than McCain, but that ended up drowning out his more moderate stances and alienating Moderates. You don't win without the moderates, and so McCain lost.

Honestly, once Obama moved to the middle there was absolutely no difference in platform between McCain and Obama. McCain was pro-Mandate while Obama was Pro-Single Payer. That was about it.

Perhaps a bit, but McCain had moved ahead in the polls well after the Palin pick. People knew Palin would be VP and McCain was still charging ahead. I remember the temper tantrums the liberal talking heads were having too. I swear Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com blew out his heart valve as McCain was pulling ahead and he was forced to concede impending doom for Obama. But....Obama got lucky and market crashed. Had the market held out until after the election McCain would be POTUS today.

 

[The Rabbi]

McCain was doing better and better in the polls until the economic crisis hit. Economics is not his strong point and this showcased it. Look at his proposals for dealing with it. They were hardly distinguishable from Obama's in any serious way. When I turned on the VP debate to Sarah Palin crying about "Wall St Speculators" causing all this I knew they were lost. There wasn't a dime's difference between their positions.

 

[Dr.Traveler]

McCain was doing better and better in the polls until the economic crisis hit. Economics is not his strong point and this showcased it. Look at his proposals for dealing with it. They were hardly distinguishable from Obama's in any serious way. When I turned on the VP debate to Sarah Palin crying about "Wall St Speculators" causing all this I knew they were lost. There wasn't a dime's difference between their positions.

Yeah, that was McCain's real problem. What were his differences with Obama? Practically none.

So once the top of the ticket became practically equal, the whole debate moved off to really stupid stuff. Such as which VP candidate was the bigger waste of space? What did you think of the outgoing president? Etc.

That's part of why I won't be making predictions about 2012 now. Romney's record and Obama's aren't that dissimilar when you look at their past positions. Toss in Citizen's, and this is going to be an election that just gets mired in inconsequential crap, and who knows how that will play out?

 

[BluePhantom]

An additional point about Santorum. Since he has no chance to win the nomination, and he has no chance to force a brokered convention, why would he remain in the race? Well it's pretty simple actually. Always remember that when a politician closes their campaign he/she can write a check for the remaining balance in their campaign fund to themselves as salary. It's perfectly legal and they all do it. This is why Obama, for example, wants to raise $1 billion for his re-election campaign. He will spend $500 million and the rest will go into his personal bank account.

Santorum will do the exact same thing. As long as he keeps getting campaign donations he will stay in. At this point I would guess that he knows good and well that he can't force a brokered convention so he is trying to raise as much money as possible and spend as little as possible. When the time comes that the amount he needs to spend in order to gain campaign contributions is greater than the contributions themselves, he will end his campaign, write himself a check for the balance and call it a day.

That's just the game of politics.

 

[The Rabbi]

An additional point about Santorum. Since he has no chance to win the nomination, and he has no chance to force a brokered convention, why would he remain in the race? Well it's pretty simple actually. Always remember that when a politician closes their campaign he/she can write a check for the remaining balance in their campaign fund to themselves as salary. It's perfectly legal and they all do it. This is why Obama, for example, wants to raise $1 billion for his re-election campaign. He will spend $500 million and the rest will go into his personal bank account.

Santorum will do the exact same thing. As long as he keeps getting campaign donations he will stay in. At this point I would guess that he knows good and well that he can't force a brokered convention so he is trying to raise as much money as possible and spend as little as possible. When the time comes that the amount he needs to spend in order to gain campaign contributions is greater than the contributions themselves, he will end his campaign, write himself a check for the balance and call it a day.

That's just the game of politics.

I dont believe that is possible.
FactCheck.org : Leftover Campaign Funds

 

[BluePhantom]

An additional point about Santorum. Since he has no chance to win the nomination, and he has no chance to force a brokered convention, why would he remain in the race? Well it's pretty simple actually. Always remember that when a politician closes their campaign he/she can write a check for the remaining balance in their campaign fund to themselves as salary. It's perfectly legal and they all do it. This is why Obama, for example, wants to raise $1 billion for his re-election campaign. He will spend $500 million and the rest will go into his personal bank account.

Santorum will do the exact same thing. As long as he keeps getting campaign donations he will stay in. At this point I would guess that he knows good and well that he can't force a brokered convention so he is trying to raise as much money as possible and spend as little as possible. When the time comes that the amount he needs to spend in order to gain campaign contributions is greater than the contributions themselves, he will end his campaign, write himself a check for the balance and call it a day.

That's just the game of politics.

I dont believe that is possible.
FactCheck.org : Leftover Campaign Funds

Well perhaps I made it out to be a little easier than it actually is but it's not hard to launder it to yourself. Look at the company that sold solar panels to itself, just as an example. So you set up the "Rick Santorum Foundation" for which Karen Santorum is the president, donate the remaining campaign funds to your own charitable organization, and your wife draws salary as CEO. The effect is the same.

 

[ScienceRocks]

As there are only 1,238 outstanding delegates remaining, santorum needs 892 of them! Over 70% to win the nomination.

1048 delegates so far rewarded
So Santorum has near 252 delegates right now/1048 delegate=24% of the delegates so far! He needs to start winning like he did in Kananas everywhere! That's Not going to happen in New york, where Romney could get over the 50%, meaning "If a candidate receives more than 50% of the vote, that candidate receives all 34 delegates." New York Republican Delegation 2012

Romney could pull out of New york 75 delegates to 20 for Santorum! Why, just look at the map of the congressional districs within new york city...Only about a dozen are within reach for Santorum. http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/6c/NY-districts-108.JPG
Pa: Pennsylvania Republican Delegation 2012 and the congressional distric map! http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/94/PA-districts-108.JPG Romney is going to win some of those philly and pitts districs just like he won the ones around Chicogo that made his delegate blow out possible.

Both Pa and New york are like Ill in the way they pick there delegates. Kind of sucks for Santorum.

Washinton DC(19), Delware(17), New Jersey, Utah(40) are all winner take all! All Romney!

Indiana Indiana Republican Delegation 2012 of course Santorum could do pretty good here, but I doubt good enough! File:IN-districts-108.JPG - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia Good because the districs are spread out.

Nc, maybe good or bad...But not enough. North Carolina Republican Delegation 2012

Califorina fucking sucks for Santorum! California Republican Delegation 2012 Easily 35 of the states 53 congressional districs lay within LA and San franfuckingsicko! No fucking way is Santorum going to win them either. http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f3/CA-districts-108.JPG

Texas
Thursday 7 June - Saturday 9 June 2012: The Texas Republican State Convention convenes in Fort Worth where the National Convention delegates are elected according to the results of the primary. [General Rules for All Conventions and Meetings. Rule 38. Sections 6, 7, 8, 9]

108 district delegates are elected: 3 from each of the state's 36 congressional districts.
44 at-large delegates (10 base at-large delegates plus 34 bonus delegates) are elected.
Delegates are elected by Presidential Preference from the Congressional districts in which their candidate received the highest percentage of the vote, providing the candidate received 20% or more of the vote, until the candidates delegate allotment is fulfilled. Then, the process is repeated for the 2nd highest vote getter. Once all Congressional district delegates are selected, the At-Large delegates are selected.

In addition, 3 party leaders, the National Committeeman, the National Committeewoman, and the chairman of the Texas's Republican Party, will attend the convention as unpledged delegates by virtue of their position.

Texas Republican Delegation 2012

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/52/TX-districts-109.JPG

Well, Texas is kind of like a mixture of Tenn, New york, ill all in one. Nasty mix for Santorum as most of the districs are in romney strong holds. URBAN area's and cities!

Wv- West Virginia Republican Delegation 2012 Likely to be nice to Santorum.

Kenturky, Ark are favorable for Santorum...These with Neb are Santorums best chance at getting another Kanasas! None of them are winner take all...More like Ok, Tenn, Miss in the way they hand out the delegates. NOT GOOD FOR santorum.
New mexico, Oregon=Romney.
Montana is a toss up!

Almost forgot! Wisconsin...
Tuesday 3 April 2012: 42 of Wisconsin's delegates to the Republican National Convention are allocated to presidential contenders in today's Wisconsin Presidential Primary.

24 district delegates are to be allocated to presidential contenders based on the primary results in each of the 8 congressional districts: each congressional district is assigned 3 National Convention delegates and the presidential contender receiving the greatest number of votes in that district will receive all 3 of that district's National Convention delegates. [Republican Party of Wisconsin Constitution Article X Section 3.]
18 at-large delegates (10 base at-large delegates plus 5 bonus delegates plus 3 party leaders) are to be allocated to the presidential contender receiving the greatest number of votes in the primary statewide. [Republican Party of Wisconsin Constitution Article X Section 4.] http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/0a/WI-districts-108.JPG

Romney will likely win the 1, 4, 5, 6 districs at least. Very liberal part of That state...Up state Santorum will do fairly good.

The reality on the ground makes it nearly impossible for Santorum to get anywhere near the 70% of the remaing delegates needed to win. LA will just make it worst!

 

[Dr.Traveler]

An additional point about Santorum. Since he has no chance to win the nomination, and he has no chance to force a brokered convention, why would he remain in the race? Well it's pretty simple actually. Always remember that when a politician closes their campaign he/she can write a check for the remaining balance in their campaign fund to themselves as salary. It's perfectly legal and they all do it. This is why Obama, for example, wants to raise $1 billion for his re-election campaign. He will spend $500 million and the rest will go into his personal bank account.

Santorum will do the exact same thing. As long as he keeps getting campaign donations he will stay in. At this point I would guess that he knows good and well that he can't force a brokered convention so he is trying to raise as much money as possible and spend as little as possible. When the time comes that the amount he needs to spend in order to gain campaign contributions is greater than the contributions themselves, he will end his campaign, write himself a check for the balance and call it a day.

That's just the game of politics.

I dont believe that is possible.
FactCheck.org : Leftover Campaign Funds

Well perhaps I made it out to be a little easier than it actually is but it's not hard to launder it to yourself. Look at the company that sold solar panels to itself, just as an example. So you set up the "Rick Santorum Foundation" for which Karen Santorum is the president, donate the remaining campaign funds to your own charitable organization, and your wife draws salary as CEO. The effect is the same.

Stuff like this does happen. DeLay ran for re-election while facing indictment in order to raise funds for his legal defense. Due to a few nice little loopholes the money raised for his campaign could be rolled over into his legal defense fund.

I wouldn't be surprised if there's some monetary angle, but at this point I'd suspect it has far more to do with Ego, capital "E". Santorum is betting Romney loses to Obama in 2012 and staying in now lays the groundwork for his 2016 campaign.

Now Newt is almost certainly in it for book sales and a possible cabinet position now.

 

[Avatar4321]

Because most republicans are retarded neocons like you.

This is why Ron Paul won't win. Because, like Progressives, the Paulites blame their set backs on everyone else.

 

[BluePhantom]

I wouldn't be surprised if there's some monetary angle, but at this point I'd suspect it has far more to do with Ego, capital "E". Santorum is betting Romney loses to Obama in 2012 and staying in now lays the groundwork for his 2016 campaign.

Now Newt is almost certainly in it for book sales and a possible cabinet position now.

Well...certainly we should never underestimate the power of the political ego. I think Newt should focus on that book sale angle cause I don't think Mitt is going to give him anything with a title.

 

[Paulie]

So let's have a look at where things stand and what is to come.

According to RCP we currently have the following delegate count (1,144 needed to secure the nomination):

Romney: 560
Santorum: 246
Gingrich: 141
Paul: 66

Now keep in mind that Illinois still has 17 delegates to hand out and those will go to Romney, but let's just give him 13 of them for now. That brings him to 573. Now let's have a look at the winner take all states that Romney is pretty much a lock to win: Maryland (37), District of Columbia (19), Delaware (17), California (172), New Jersey (50), and Utah (40). That's 335 total and added to his previous number that's 908. Now New York and Connecticut are winner take all if someone scores 50% of the vote. I tend think he will in both those states but let's say, just for argument, that he scores about the same as Illinois with 47%. That's 58 more for a total of 966.

Now let's look at the proportional states and assign him the following percentages (which I will set low):

Louisiana: 25% of 46 = 11 delegates
Missouri: 20% of 52 = 10 delegates
Pennsylvania: 20% of 72 = 14 delegates
Rhode Island: 47% of 19 = 9 delegates
North Carolina: 31% of 55 = 17 delegates
Indiana: 25% of 46 = 12 delegates
West Virginia: 40% of 31 = 12 delegates
Nebraska: 20% of 35 = 7 delegates
Oregon: 47% of 28 = 13 delegates
Kentucky: 30% of 45 = 14 delegates
Arkansas: 20% of 36 = 7 delegates
Texas: 25% of 155 = 39 delegates
South Dakota: 20% of 28 = 6 delegates
Montana: 25% of 26 = 7 delegates
New Mexico: 40% of 23 = 9 delegates

Sub-total = 187
Grand Total = 1,153

Even with low proportional figures, Romney wins the nomination....no brokered convention, nothing. Done, over, finished, kaput.

Well what if Gingrich drops out? Well according to Gallup Gingrich voters are split evenly between Romney and Santorum (and in fact there's a one point edge to Romney) so all it would do is get Romney to the nomination faster. This one is done and over with. Romney will be the nominee, end of story.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Republican Delegate Count

Romney, Santorum Tie as Gingrich Voters' Second Choice

This thread is pointless. A large portion of those delegate numbers on RCP and anywhere else reported in the media are just guesses. Many of these states won't be allocating delegates until late spring after they've had their state conventions.