BluePhantom
Educator (of liberals)
So let's have a look at where things stand and what is to come.
According to RCP we currently have the following delegate count (1,144 needed to secure the nomination):
Romney: 560
Santorum: 246
Gingrich: 141
Paul: 66
Now keep in mind that Illinois still has 17 delegates to hand out and those will go to Romney, but let's just give him 13 of them for now. That brings him to 573. Now let's have a look at the winner take all states that Romney is pretty much a lock to win: Maryland (37), District of Columbia (19), Delaware (17), California (172), New Jersey (50), and Utah (40). That's 335 total and added to his previous number that's 908. Now New York and Connecticut are winner take all if someone scores 50% of the vote. I tend think he will in both those states but let's say, just for argument, that he scores about the same as Illinois with 47%. That's 58 more for a total of 966.
Now let's look at the proportional states and assign him the following percentages (which I will set low):
Louisiana: 25% of 46 = 11 delegates
Missouri: 20% of 52 = 10 delegates
Pennsylvania: 20% of 72 = 14 delegates
Rhode Island: 47% of 19 = 9 delegates
North Carolina: 31% of 55 = 17 delegates
Indiana: 25% of 46 = 12 delegates
West Virginia: 40% of 31 = 12 delegates
Nebraska: 20% of 35 = 7 delegates
Oregon: 47% of 28 = 13 delegates
Kentucky: 30% of 45 = 14 delegates
Arkansas: 20% of 36 = 7 delegates
Texas: 25% of 155 = 39 delegates
South Dakota: 20% of 28 = 6 delegates
Montana: 25% of 26 = 7 delegates
New Mexico: 40% of 23 = 9 delegates
Sub-total = 187
Grand Total = 1,153
Even with low proportional figures, Romney wins the nomination....no brokered convention, nothing. Done, over, finished, kaput.
Well what if Gingrich drops out? Well according to Gallup Gingrich voters are split evenly between Romney and Santorum (and in fact there's a one point edge to Romney) so all it would do is get Romney to the nomination faster. This one is done and over with. Romney will be the nominee, end of story.
RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Republican Delegate Count
Romney, Santorum Tie as Gingrich Voters' Second Choice
According to RCP we currently have the following delegate count (1,144 needed to secure the nomination):
Romney: 560
Santorum: 246
Gingrich: 141
Paul: 66
Now keep in mind that Illinois still has 17 delegates to hand out and those will go to Romney, but let's just give him 13 of them for now. That brings him to 573. Now let's have a look at the winner take all states that Romney is pretty much a lock to win: Maryland (37), District of Columbia (19), Delaware (17), California (172), New Jersey (50), and Utah (40). That's 335 total and added to his previous number that's 908. Now New York and Connecticut are winner take all if someone scores 50% of the vote. I tend think he will in both those states but let's say, just for argument, that he scores about the same as Illinois with 47%. That's 58 more for a total of 966.
Now let's look at the proportional states and assign him the following percentages (which I will set low):
Louisiana: 25% of 46 = 11 delegates
Missouri: 20% of 52 = 10 delegates
Pennsylvania: 20% of 72 = 14 delegates
Rhode Island: 47% of 19 = 9 delegates
North Carolina: 31% of 55 = 17 delegates
Indiana: 25% of 46 = 12 delegates
West Virginia: 40% of 31 = 12 delegates
Nebraska: 20% of 35 = 7 delegates
Oregon: 47% of 28 = 13 delegates
Kentucky: 30% of 45 = 14 delegates
Arkansas: 20% of 36 = 7 delegates
Texas: 25% of 155 = 39 delegates
South Dakota: 20% of 28 = 6 delegates
Montana: 25% of 26 = 7 delegates
New Mexico: 40% of 23 = 9 delegates
Sub-total = 187
Grand Total = 1,153
Even with low proportional figures, Romney wins the nomination....no brokered convention, nothing. Done, over, finished, kaput.
Well what if Gingrich drops out? Well according to Gallup Gingrich voters are split evenly between Romney and Santorum (and in fact there's a one point edge to Romney) so all it would do is get Romney to the nomination faster. This one is done and over with. Romney will be the nominee, end of story.
RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Republican Delegate Count
Romney, Santorum Tie as Gingrich Voters' Second Choice