RCP Poll - Yikes!

[Polk]

You have all been shown that Rasmussen is / has been the most accurate. Yet you still insist that they are not and that they are biased. Must be because he occasionally appears on FOX news. Are we that Biased ourselves?

A claim that was made based on the results on one race, and even in that race, it's been shown the researcher who stated Rasmussen was the most accurate used inaccurate numbers. It wasn't due to malice, he just jumped the gun on putting out his results.

http://www.fordham.edu/images/acade...ccuracy in the 2008 presidential election.pdf

And what made Rasmussen not the most accurate here?

This was the same link posted earlier, and as I pointed out then, the research in question used inaccurate numbers in his calculation. It clearly states in the lead that the results are based on "a 6.15-point Obama margin in the national popular vote". The actual margin was 7.26 percent.

 

[Polk]

49.9-46=13 And liberals wonder why we think they're dipshits.

No, we wonder why homeschooling doesn't focus more on math.

Here, here, point of order:

In a study of over 5,000 home-schooled students, they outperformed public school students by 30 to 37 percentile point in all subjects (from “Strengths of Their Own-Home Schoolers Across America,” Dr. Brian D. Ray)


Recent statistics from The College Board and the American College Testing Program (ACT) indicate that home schoolers are exceeding the national average test scores on both the SAT and the ACT college entrance exams. In 1999, the 2219 students who identified themselves as home schooled students on the SAT test, scored an average of 1083 (verbal 548, math 535), 67 points above the national average of 1016. A perfect SAT score is 1600. Also in 1999, 3616 home school students taking the ACT scored an average of 22.7, compared to the national average of 21, a perfect score being 36.
College-bound Home Schoolers Make Headlines (HSLDA | National Center News)

And what school is it that is proud to point to you as a grad?

That doesn't really prove anything, unless the demographics of homeschoolers taking the test is the same, or at least comparable, to the demographics in the general population. Those numbers could arise from several factors. Homeschoolers could be from families wealthier than the general population (and therefore after controlling for income, the results are no better). Also can't discount that there may be more active pressure from parents of homeschooling students to not take the test if they feel the student will score poorly.

 

[PoliticalChic]

No, we wonder why homeschooling doesn't focus more on math.

Here, here, point of order:

In a study of over 5,000 home-schooled students, they outperformed public school students by 30 to 37 percentile point in all subjects (from “Strengths of Their Own-Home Schoolers Across America,” Dr. Brian D. Ray)


Recent statistics from The College Board and the American College Testing Program (ACT) indicate that home schoolers are exceeding the national average test scores on both the SAT and the ACT college entrance exams. In 1999, the 2219 students who identified themselves as home schooled students on the SAT test, scored an average of 1083 (verbal 548, math 535), 67 points above the national average of 1016. A perfect SAT score is 1600. Also in 1999, 3616 home school students taking the ACT scored an average of 22.7, compared to the national average of 21, a perfect score being 36.
College-bound Home Schoolers Make Headlines (HSLDA | National Center News)

And what school is it that is proud to point to you as a grad?

That doesn't really prove anything, unless the demographics of homeschoolers taking the test is the same, or at least comparable, to the demographics in the general population. Those numbers could arise from several factors. Homeschoolers could be from families wealthier than the general population (and therefore after controlling for income, the results are no better). Also can't discount that there may be more active pressure from parents of homeschooling students to not take the test if they feel the student will score poorly.

A dubious post. The students could have arrived from Mars, as well, I suppose.

A usual hallmark of your posts is the lack of links or documentation to support fatuous opinion.

Have you any data that indicates that home-schoolers are, overall,from wealthier families than the public in general?

Data that indicates that home-schoolers have been left back as a matter of course, and so are older and more experienced that others taking the same grade exams?

I thought not, totally bogus.

You appear more and more as,...shall we be kind, and say, a lightweight.

It is a gross exaggeration to state "That doesn't really prove anything"

Every straw at which you clutch can be laid, equally at the feet of the public school system, including the idea that teachers have been known to tell poorly performing students not to take the tests.

So, contrary to your post, mine speaks directly to the prior poster who implied that home-schoolers are somewhat limited in a particular area.

I have presented proof, in the form of documentation, that indicates that there are no such weaknesses.

In worst case, my post may be an 'implicaion,' as well, but it reaches and surpasses the level of the prior.

Do better next time.

 

[Polk]

You haven't presented any proof. You quoted a website promoting homeschooling. It would be like someone saying the Ford Focus is the best car on the road and using quotes from Ford to prove it.

 

[PoliticalChic]

You haven't presented any proof. You quoted a website promoting homeschooling. It would be like someone saying the Ford Focus is the best car on the road and using quotes from Ford to prove it.

And your?

You've quoted a source known for aught but bloviation.

 

[Polk]

You haven't presented any proof. You quoted a website promoting homeschooling. It would be like someone saying the Ford Focus is the best car on the road and using quotes from Ford to prove it.

And your?

You've quoted a source known for aught but bloviation.

I was suggesting possible explanations. I hadn't really taken a look at the specifics. Upon doing so though, one of ideas I suggested seems to have merit.

- A greater percentage of homeschoolers compared to nonhomeschoolers were white, non-Hispanic in 1999-75 percent compared to 65 percent. At the same time, a smaller percentage of homeschoolers were black, non-Hispanic students and a smaller percentage were Hispanic students.
- The household income of homeschoolers in 1999 was no different than nonhomeschoolers. However, parents of homeschoolers had higher levels of educational attainment than did parents of nonhomeschoolers.

Homeschooling in the United States: 1999

While they not wealthier, parents who homeschool are typically more educated. Study after study has shown that household income and parental education level are the two factors with the strongest impact on a student's SAT score.

 

[rdean]

I recall the days when a few in here would deride the Rasmussen polls, and any other singular poll showing a decline in Obama approval. Now we have the latest RCP polling average showing Obama, for the first time, falling below 50%. No outliers here folks - just the cold hard fact that America is getting increasingly fed up with this White House...

Hope and Change indeed!


RealClearPolitics - Election Other - President Obama Job Approval

Most of those polls take place over phone lines that is mostly older and Republican.

Like Huckabee says, "Stop ragging on our president".

 

[Maple]

I recall the days when a few in here would deride the Rasmussen polls, and any other singular poll showing a decline in Obama approval. Now we have the latest RCP polling average showing Obama, for the first time, falling below 50%. No outliers here folks - just the cold hard fact that America is getting increasingly fed up with this White House...

Hope and Change indeed!


RealClearPolitics - Election Other - President Obama Job Approval

I saw a billboard today asking," Where's the jobs Governor Ritter?", he is the democratic governor of Colorado and he has received stimulus money, but still no jobs anywhere.

It appears, " That fllood the basement economics," of this administration is not working out too well for them.

 

[Maple]

I heard that no President has ever been re-elected if their polls were below 50. I think that 50 is optimistic and in reality they may be much lower than that.

I talked to a couple of my democrat friends this weekend on a hike and even they are fed up with the spending and all this debt they are running up. They won't vote for Obama next time.

 

[PoliticalChic]

You haven't presented any proof. You quoted a website promoting homeschooling. It would be like someone saying the Ford Focus is the best car on the road and using quotes from Ford to prove it.

And your?

You've quoted a source known for aught but bloviation.

I was suggesting possible explanations. I hadn't really taken a look at the specifics. Upon doing so though, one of ideas I suggested seems to have merit.

- A greater percentage of homeschoolers compared to nonhomeschoolers were white, non-Hispanic in 1999-75 percent compared to 65 percent. At the same time, a smaller percentage of homeschoolers were black, non-Hispanic students and a smaller percentage were Hispanic students.
- The household income of homeschoolers in 1999 was no different than nonhomeschoolers. However, parents of homeschoolers had higher levels of educational attainment than did parents of nonhomeschoolers.

Homeschooling in the United States: 1999

While they not wealthier, parents who homeschool are typically more educated. Study after study has shown that household income and parental education level are the two factors with the strongest impact on a student's SAT score.

I actually appreciate your posting documentation.

Especially in this case, as it supports my thesis: home-schoolers are not deficient in the subjet(s) the original poster indicated.

I take this as a full scale rout of your position.

So this is why you normally don't link or document.

Further, a question arises based on "... a smaller percentage of homeschoolers were black, non-Hispanic students and a smaller percentage were Hispanic students."

Is it your position that white students necessarily do better than black or hispanic students- or would you like to retreat here, too?

Sad, isn't it that Democrats, an most particularly President Obama, will do nothing to improve the educational opportunities for black and hispanic students:

Vouchers are outlawed, and with a government monopoly, choice is forbidden. Why? Won’t vouchers force schools to compete for dollars, and improve as any free-market enterprise?

a. “…performance review of the D.C. voucher program while Congress debated its future in March. The latest annual evaluation was finally released Friday, and it shows measurable academic gains…. report shows statistically significant academic gains for the entire voucher-receiving population…. reading nearly a half-grade ahead of their peers who did not receive vouchers. Voucher recipients are doing no better in math but they're doing no worse…. "There are transition difficulties, a culture shock upon entering a school where you're expected to pay attention, learn, do homework," says Jay Greene, an education scholar at the Manhattan Institute. "But these results fit a pattern that we've seen in other evaluations of vouchers. Benefits compound over time."

b. The Obama Administration buried the results, and officials were forbidden from discussing it: “[Department of Education] decision to sit on a performance review of the D.C. voucher program… scandalous is that the Education Department almost certainly knew the results of this evaluation for months… Mr. Duncan's office spurned our repeated calls and emails asking what and when he and his aides knew about these results. We do know the Administration prohibited anyone involved with the evaluation from discussing it publicly…. A reasonable conclusion is that Mr. Duncan's department didn't want proof of voucher success to interfere with Senator Dick Durbin's campaign to kill vouchers at the behest of the teachers unions.” Education Secretary Arne Duncan's Two Opposing Views on School Vouchers - WSJ.com

c. “Vouchers have improved the math and reading of inner-city children from Dayton, Ohio, to Charlotte, N.C., various studies show. The Washington vouchers improved the reading of girls and younger kids by about half a school year, though results for other groups were iffier. Yet opposition is so fierce that few voucher experiments survive past the seedling stage.

Florida vouchers were blocked by a party-line vote in the stateSupreme Court. In Utah, they were killed by a union-funded anti-voucher campaign.
This serves only to protect failing schools.” Our view on improving education: Despite success, school choice runs into new barriers - Opinion - USATODAY.com

 

[Maple]

I recall the days when a few in here would deride the Rasmussen polls, and any other singular poll showing a decline in Obama approval. Now we have the latest RCP polling average showing Obama, for the first time, falling below 50%. No outliers here folks - just the cold hard fact that America is getting increasingly fed up with this White House...

Hope and Change indeed!


RealClearPolitics - Election Other - President Obama Job Approval

I saw a billboard today asking," Where's the jobs Governor Ritter?", he is the democratic governor of Colorado and he has received stimulus money, but still no jobs anywhere.

It appears, " That fllood the basement economics," of this administration is not working out too well for them.

I recall the days when a few in here would deride the Rasmussen polls, and any other singular poll showing a decline in Obama approval. Now we have the latest RCP polling average showing Obama, for the first time, falling below 50%. No outliers here folks - just the cold hard fact that America is getting increasingly fed up with this White House...

Hope and Change indeed!


RealClearPolitics - Election Other - President Obama Job Approval

Most of those polls take place over phone lines that is mostly older and Republican.

Like Huckabee says, "Stop ragging on our president".

Still doing the Obama cheerleading and you are still in constant denial of the facts.

I can't wait until the 2010 tsunami that will clean out the house and senate, but after the 1st of this year we will witness the dems go into a full blown panic when it dawns on them that the mid-terms are just 11 months away. It will be entertaining.

 

[saveliberty]

I heard that no President has ever been re-elected if their polls were below 50. I think that 50 is optimistic and in reality they may be much lower than that.

I talked to a couple of my democrat friends this weekend on a hike and even they are fed up with the spending and all this debt they are running up. They won't vote for Obama next time.

No President has been reelected if below 50% at election time. Most have actually been below 50% at some time during their term in office.

 

[Polk]

I heard that no President has ever been re-elected if their polls were below 50. I think that 50 is optimistic and in reality they may be much lower than that.

I talked to a couple of my democrat friends this weekend on a hike and even they are fed up with the spending and all this debt they are running up. They won't vote for Obama next time.

No President has been reelected with an approval rating under 50 percent? Hell, in the most recent race featuring an incumbent was 2004. Bush won even though his approval rating was 48 percent.

 

[Polk]

I heard that no President has ever been re-elected if their polls were below 50. I think that 50 is optimistic and in reality they may be much lower than that.

I talked to a couple of my democrat friends this weekend on a hike and even they are fed up with the spending and all this debt they are running up. They won't vote for Obama next time.

No President has been reelected if below 50% at election time. Most have actually been below 50% at some time during their term in office.

Bush had a 48 percent approval rating when he was reelected and in the last poll conducted before his reelection, Truman only had a 39 percent approval rating.

 

[NYcarbineer]

49.9-46=13 And liberals wonder why we think they're dipshits.

No, we wonder why homeschooling doesn't focus more on math.

Here, here, point of order:

In a study of over 5,000 home-schooled students, they outperformed public school students by 30 to 37 percentile point in all subjects (from “Strengths of Their Own-Home Schoolers Across America,” Dr. Brian D. Ray)


Recent statistics from The College Board and the American College Testing Program (ACT) indicate that home schoolers are exceeding the national average test scores on both the SAT and the ACT college entrance exams. In 1999, the 2219 students who identified themselves as home schooled students on the SAT test, scored an average of 1083 (verbal 548, math 535), 67 points above the national average of 1016. A perfect SAT score is 1600. Also in 1999, 3616 home school students taking the ACT scored an average of 22.7, compared to the national average of 21, a perfect score being 36.
College-bound Home Schoolers Make Headlines (HSLDA | National Center News)


And what school is it that is proud to point to you as a grad?

The school where I learned to add and subtract.

 

[Polk]

And your?

You've quoted a source known for aught but bloviation.

I was suggesting possible explanations. I hadn't really taken a look at the specifics. Upon doing so though, one of ideas I suggested seems to have merit.

- A greater percentage of homeschoolers compared to nonhomeschoolers were white, non-Hispanic in 1999-75 percent compared to 65 percent. At the same time, a smaller percentage of homeschoolers were black, non-Hispanic students and a smaller percentage were Hispanic students.
- The household income of homeschoolers in 1999 was no different than nonhomeschoolers. However, parents of homeschoolers had higher levels of educational attainment than did parents of nonhomeschoolers.

Homeschooling in the United States: 1999

While they not wealthier, parents who homeschool are typically more educated. Study after study has shown that household income and parental education level are the two factors with the strongest impact on a student's SAT score.

I actually appreciate your posting documentation.

Especially in this case, as it supports my thesis: home-schoolers are not deficient in the subjet(s) the original poster indicated.

I take this as a full scale rout of your position.

So this is why you normally don't link or document.

I never claimed that homeschoolers are deficient in any subject. I was just challenging your claim that homeschoolers perform better than others, when it's highly possible that any and all observed difference is the result of other factors. As far as I know, there has not been a study done on this.

Further, a question arises based on "... a smaller percentage of homeschoolers were black, non-Hispanic students and a smaller percentage were Hispanic students."

Is it your position that white students necessarily do better than black or hispanic students- or would you like to retreat here, too?

I haven't retreated from anything. Race could also possibly be a factor in explaining test scores due to cultural biases in the choice of questions.

Sad, isn't it that Democrats, an most particularly President Obama, will do nothing to improve the educational opportunities for black and hispanic students:

Vouchers are outlawed, and with a government monopoly, choice is forbidden. Why? Won’t vouchers force schools to compete for dollars, and improve as any free-market enterprise?

a. “…performance review of the D.C. voucher program while Congress debated its future in March. The latest annual evaluation was finally released Friday, and it shows measurable academic gains…. report shows statistically significant academic gains for the entire voucher-receiving population…. reading nearly a half-grade ahead of their peers who did not receive vouchers. Voucher recipients are doing no better in math but they're doing no worse…. "There are transition difficulties, a culture shock upon entering a school where you're expected to pay attention, learn, do homework," says Jay Greene, an education scholar at the Manhattan Institute. "But these results fit a pattern that we've seen in other evaluations of vouchers. Benefits compound over time."

b. The Obama Administration buried the results, and officials were forbidden from discussing it: “[Department of Education] decision to sit on a performance review of the D.C. voucher program… scandalous is that the Education Department almost certainly knew the results of this evaluation for months… Mr. Duncan's office spurned our repeated calls and emails asking what and when he and his aides knew about these results. We do know the Administration prohibited anyone involved with the evaluation from discussing it publicly…. A reasonable conclusion is that Mr. Duncan's department didn't want proof of voucher success to interfere with Senator Dick Durbin's campaign to kill vouchers at the behest of the teachers unions.” Education Secretary Arne Duncan's Two Opposing Views on School Vouchers - WSJ.com

c. “Vouchers have improved the math and reading of inner-city children from Dayton, Ohio, to Charlotte, N.C., various studies show. The Washington vouchers improved the reading of girls and younger kids by about half a school year, though results for other groups were iffier. Yet opposition is so fierce that few voucher experiments survive past the seedling stage.

Florida vouchers were blocked by a party-line vote in the stateSupreme Court. In Utah, they were killed by a union-funded anti-voucher campaign.
This serves only to protect failing schools.” Our view on improving education: Despite success, school choice runs into new barriers - Opinion - USATODAY.com

Meanwhile, back in the real world, vouchers do nothing to increase student performance. Students who attend private schools perform no better on standardized tests than public school students, once the results are weighted using student and school characteristics.

Comparing Private Schools and Public Schools Using Hierarchical Linear Modeling

This study compares mean 2003 National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) reading and mathematics scores of public and private schools in 4th and 8th grades, statistically controlling for individual student characteristics (such as gender, race/ethnicity, disability status, identification as an English language learner) and school characteristics (such as school size, location, and the composition of the student body). In grades 4 and 8, using unadjusted mean scores, students in private schools scored significantly higher than students in public schools for both reading and mathematics. But when school means were adjusted in the HLM analysis, the average for public schools was significantly higher than the average for private schools for grade 4 mathematics and not significantly different for reading. At grade 8, the average for private schools was significantly higher than the average for public schools in reading but not significantly different for mathematics. Comparisons were also carried out between types of sectarian schools. In grade 4, Catholic and Lutheran schools were compared separately to public schools. For both reading and mathematics, the results were similar to those based on all private schools. In grade 8, Catholic, Lutheran, and Conservative Christian schools were each compared to public schools. For Catholic and Lutheran schools for both reading and mathematics, the results were again similar to those based on all private schools. For Conservative Christian schools, the average adjusted school mean in reading was not significantly different from that of public schools. In mathematics, the average adjusted school mean for Conservative Christian schools was significantly lower than that of public schools.

Comparing Private Schools and Public Schools Using Hierarchical Linear Modeling

 

[NYcarbineer]

[People who would be considered likely voters under most likely voter screens are people who have voted in several consecutive elections. Those people in general tend to disproportionately older, wealthy, and more white than the general population, which in turn happens to be a more conservative demographic.

And Rasmussen knows that.

He does, but I wouldn't be so quick to label it an issue of bias. Remember, he has to be able to sell polling to clients. That's only going to be effective to the extent his polling is accurate.

I already said many times that I think Rasmussen is marketing to the rightwing audience, which is a well established money maker. And obviously it works. Every time one of these Rasmussen polls comes out that's way off the rest of the pack, to the anti-Obama side, the rightwing blogosphere/media is all over it, promoting it.

 

[saveliberty]

"Meanwhile, back in the real world, vouchers do nothing to increase student performance. Students who attend private schools perform no better on standardized tests than public school students, once the results are weighted using student and school characteristics." - Polk

School characteristics like public or private sherlock? Our local private school out in the hicks, as some are fond of calling it, have these results:

" Currently, Hillsdale Academy ranks
sixth out of 800 public and private high schools on these two
indicators. While the national average ACT score is 21, Academy
students average 26. Headmaster Kenneth Calvert is pleased
with this rate of success, considering entrance to Hillsdale
Academy is not based on IQ or entrance exams."

http://www.hillsdale.edu/images/userImages/jcarr/Page_5002/AcademyLane_Fall08.pdf

I'm going to have to ask you for proof of your position.

 

[Polk]

"Meanwhile, back in the real world, vouchers do nothing to increase student performance. Students who attend private schools perform no better on standardized tests than public school students, once the results are weighted using student and school characteristics." - Polk

School characteristics like public or private sherlock? Our local private school out in the hicks, as some are fond of calling it, have these results:

" Currently, Hillsdale Academy ranks
sixth out of 800 public and private high schools on these two
indicators. While the national average ACT score is 21, Academy
students average 26. Headmaster Kenneth Calvert is pleased
with this rate of success, considering entrance to Hillsdale
Academy is not based on IQ or entrance exams."

http://www.hillsdale.edu/images/userImages/jcarr/Page_5002/AcademyLane_Fall08.pdf

I'm going to have to ask you for proof of your position.

The proof was in the post you're replying to.

 

[saveliberty]

And Rasmussen knows that.

He does, but I wouldn't be so quick to label it an issue of bias. Remember, he has to be able to sell polling to clients. That's only going to be effective to the extent his polling is accurate.

I already said many times that I think Rasmussen is marketing to the rightwing audience, which is a well established money maker. And obviously it works. Every time one of these Rasmussen polls comes out that's way off the rest of the pack, to the anti-Obama side, the rightwing blogosphere/media is all over it, promoting it.

You are the one fixating on Rasmussen. We merely said RCP's average showed Obama was below 50%. I did a little research and pointed out some differences in the polling methods. The big thing I put forward was whether Rasmussen might be a future indicator in some regards because they have 100% response rates for approve and disapprove only.

Marketing to rightwingers. Right. The people who pay for these results want to have accurate information. Rasmussen has been accurate quite nicely.