Obama Will Lose In 2012

[Dr.Traveler]

Walker would have a tough fight getting the nomination, and an even tougher one in the general. He's a VERY new governor, and trying to leap frog out of Wisconsin and onto the national stage would make him look opportunistic and inexperienced. Plus, the feelings on his actions in Wisconsin run pretty deep. He'd mobilize the Liberals that are currently disenchanted with Obama just as the specter of Hillary mobilizes Republicans.

Brewer... I don't know. I think her issues aren't that different from Walker's all told.

Don't discount Romney's ability to appeal to the middle. There are a LOT of folks that voted for Obama that would flip if the GOP runs a candidate they can get behind. Romney can do that.

 

[The Rabbi]

Yep, which would be relevant accept for the fact, and you may be aware of it already:


Blacks can vote.

The word is "except."
Yes, but the high rating among blacks skews any polling results and masks the true disapproval rate.

Yeah, I shouldn't have had a couple of Corona's with lunch.

Do you have evidence that polling is disproportional, and samples more blacks than reflects the number of eligible black voters?

Doesn't matter. It's mathematical. Take a random 10 people. Figure that there is roughly a 50% chance of any of them supporting Obama. So a raw percentage would be a 50% approval rating.
Now suppose 2 of them are black. Suddenly the rate goes to 70% approval. But that really is not accurate.

 

[Dr.Traveler]

You're the only one saying the opinions of blacks don't count.
I'm saying with a strong block like that it masks the overall approval rating in the country.

I'm saying why does it matter he has strong support in the Black Community? The Black community is part of the voting population and is part of the American Community as a whole. Arbitrarily tossing out a group just because they have strong support for a candidate is a pretty questionable tactic. Especially when the only characteristic the group you're trying to exclude have in common is race.

Obama's approval rating is his approval rating, no more no less. There is no "true" approval rating, and you're not making a "truthier" one by limiting the US population to only certain groups.

 

[Samson]

Yeah, I shouldn't have had a couple of Corona's with lunch.

Is that why you support Obama? I would think it would take something stronger; crack perhaps?

I think Obama is an empty suit at best, and at worst he is the poster boy for why artificial social advancement damages blacks. He had no other credential to be elected president other than his color, and now everyone gets to see the poor guy, flail about as helplessly as a beached salmon being picked apart by gulls.

This doesn't alter the probability that he will be re-elected.

 

[The Rabbi]

Don't discount Romney's ability to appeal to the middle. There are a LOT of folks that voted for Obama that would flip if the GOP runs a candidate they can get behind. Romney can do that.

People said the same thing about McCain. We see how that worked out.
Conservatives win elections. RINOs don't.

 

[Samson]

Obama won in 2008 due to a disharmonic convergence of the Financial Crisis, Bush Fatigue, War Fatigue, and McCain's uninspiring campaign...and the fact that his virtual lack of a record enabled him to spin a fantasy regarding how he would heal the planet.

This time around, he'll be running on a record, and it's quite ugly to many of the moderates who supported him in 2008.

A "disharmonic convergence?"

I thought he won in 2008 because......

....he was popular?



I know, that's just silly.

 

[Dr.Traveler]

Doesn't matter. It's mathematical. Take a random 10 people. Figure that there is roughly a 50% chance of any of them supporting Obama. So a raw percentage would be a 50% approval rating.
Now suppose 2 of them are black. Suddenly the rate goes to 70% approval. But that really is not accurate.

That's really questionable math, as a good sample would include a pool of candidates as close in composition to the US population as possible. Also, you're calculation on expected value is kinda bad. Even if I accepted your hypothesis that P(Like Obama)=50% for a non-black voter, and P(Like Obama)=70% for a black voter, then the expected value ought to be:

Y=(0.50(10-x)+0.7x)/10=(5+0.2x)/10=0.5+0.02x, where x=number of African American voters in your sample of 10.

That means 2 voters generate an expected value of a 54% approval rating, which isn't that far off mathematically. It certainly isn't off by the 20% you claim. Considering that the US Population is about 12% African American, a truly representative sample ought to have x\geq 1, meaning you should have expected an approval rating of 52% regardless.

That still doesn't speak to your original thesis, which is that somehow a high approval rating in the black community masks his "true" approval rating. I still think that's bunk.

 

[Dr.Traveler]

Don't discount Romney's ability to appeal to the middle. There are a LOT of folks that voted for Obama that would flip if the GOP runs a candidate they can get behind. Romney can do that.

People said the same thing about McCain. We see how that worked out.
Conservatives win elections. RINOs don't.

McCain lost because of Palin, and because of his incredibly stupid "Let's go to Washington to help fix private industry!" Palin alienated the moderates, and his stunt alienated his base.

 

[Dr.Traveler]

This doesn't alter the probability that he will be re-elected.

I personally think he's proven to be a dangerously weak President. I personally do not plan to vote for him if the GOP gives me a candidate I can vote for.

That doesn't change the fact that from a rational examination of the current state of affairs, I'd say the smart bet is an Obama victory.

 

[Uncensored2008]

Walker would have a tough fight getting the nomination, and an even tougher one in the general. He's a VERY new governor, and trying to leap frog out of Wisconsin and onto the national stage would make him look opportunistic and inexperienced. Plus, the feelings on his actions in Wisconsin run pretty deep. He'd mobilize the Liberals that are currently disenchanted with Obama just as the specter of Hillary mobilizes Republicans.

He would polarize, no doubt. We have a country of government workers run by government workers for no one other than government workers. The rest are getting fucked.

Walker stood up to the nobility who then mobilized the government leeches from the entire nation to go to Wisconsin. The force that attacked Wisconsin is it - the entire force. Those who are tired of the boot of the privileged class on their neck are a far greater number.

The GOP fears nothing quite like taking a stand, but IF they actually showed some principles and took on the aristocracy, head on, it would be an easy win - and an easy sell. We are $14 trillion in debt largely BECAUSE of the privileged aristocracy. Our states are failing entirely because of the excesses of the aristocracy and the crime syndicate that promotes them.

Don't discount Romney's ability to appeal to the middle. There are a LOT of folks that voted for Obama that would flip if the GOP runs a candidate they can get behind. Romney can do that.

I don't agree. Policy wise, Obama and Romney are very similar. He doesn't offer much of a choice. Black Americans are racist, so they will vote Obama regardless of other factors. Obama is black, end of story. That leave 87% in play. Romney needs 56.5% of those to win. Without the conservatives, I see no chance of that.

 

[Samson]

This doesn't alter the probability that he will be re-elected.

I personally think he's proven to be a dangerously weak President. I personally do not plan to vote for him if the GOP gives me a candidate I can vote for.

That doesn't change the fact that from a rational examination of the current state of affairs, I'd say the smart bet is an Obama victory.

Well, there's always the possiblity that blacks would choose not to vote, and surprise us all.



Here is a great interactive site for anyone who wishes to seriously compare the popularity of presidents since FDR.

Presidential Job Approval Center

 

[Uncensored2008]

I'm saying why does it matter he has strong support in the Black Community?

He doesn't have "strong support," he has absolute support. Black Americans vote skin color.

 

[Dr.Traveler]

I don't agree. Policy wise, Obama and Romney are very similar. He doesn't offer much of a choice. Black Americans are racist, so they will vote Obama regardless of other factors. Obama is black, end of story. That leave 87% in play. Romney needs 56.5% of those to win. Without the conservatives, I see no chance of that.

Without the moderates, the GOP has absolutely no chance.

I think you're starting to see why the GOP might be kinda screwed in 2012, at least in the Presidential Race. Any candidate that will unseat Obama will absolutely have to bring out to the polls his Conservative base, AND win the moderates over.

 

[EriktheRed]

The Repubs currently have NO credible candidate against this President.

Period.

 

[The Rabbi]

Don't discount Romney's ability to appeal to the middle. There are a LOT of folks that voted for Obama that would flip if the GOP runs a candidate they can get behind. Romney can do that.

People said the same thing about McCain. We see how that worked out.
Conservatives win elections. RINOs don't.

McCain lost because of Palin, and because of his incredibly stupid "Let's go to Washington to help fix private industry!" Palin alienated the moderates, and his stunt alienated his base.

I dsiagree, McCain lost because
1) The economy tanked and his solutions were pretty much identitical to what Obama was proposing.
2) He didnt get along well with Palin and the internal dissent hurt his organizing.
3) The press was totally and absolutely in the tank for Obama.

 

[Samson]

The Repubs currently have NO credible candidate against this President.

Period.

Yeah, so you'd better keep trowing rocks at Palin.

Here, have a couple, you look like you're running low: I've been collecting them whenever they fall from Chris Matthew's Ear.

 

[Samson]

I don't agree. Policy wise, Obama and Romney are very similar. He doesn't offer much of a choice. Black Americans are racist, so they will vote Obama regardless of other factors. Obama is black, end of story. That leave 87% in play. Romney needs 56.5% of those to win. Without the conservatives, I see no chance of that.

Without the moderates, the GOP has absolutely no chance.

I think you're starting to see why the GOP might be kinda screwed in 2012, at least in the Presidential Race. Any candidate that will unseat Obama will absolutely have to bring out to the polls his Conservative base, AND win the moderates over.

I know someone: I'll PM you.

 

[EriktheRed]

The Repubs currently have NO credible candidate against this President.

Period.

Yeah, so you'd better keep trowing rocks at Palin.

Here, have a couple, you look like you're running low: I've been collecting them whenever they fall from Chris Matthew's Ear.

Thanks, that ditzy rhymes-with-punt is fun to throw rocks at, as are the rest of the sorry lot.

Doesn't make any of them credible threats to the Prez next year, though.

 

[EriktheRed]

Don't discount Romney's ability to appeal to the middle. There are a LOT of folks that voted for Obama that would flip if the GOP runs a candidate they can get behind. Romney can do that.

People said the same thing about McCain. We see how that worked out.
Conservatives win elections. RINOs don't.

McCain lost because of Palin, and because of his incredibly stupid "Let's go to Washington to help fix private industry!" Palin alienated the moderates, and his stunt alienated his base.

Don't forget, too, that the Republican brand in general was in the shitter back in '08.

 

[Samson]

The Repubs currently have NO credible candidate against this President.

Period.

Yeah, so you'd better keep trowing rocks at Palin.

Here, have a couple, you look like you're running low: I've been collecting them whenever they fall from Chris Matthew's Ear.

Thanks, that ditzy rhymes-with-punt is fun to throw rocks at, as are the rest of the sorry lot.

Doesn't make any of them credible threats to the Prez next year, though.

Unless there's some sort of early voting I'm not aware of, why would a "credible threat to the Prez" want to appear NOW?

Obama, however, I expect to begin camaigning in May after he and Michelle appear on the final episode of The Oprah Show.

Despite being the incumbant, he'll need to start early.

Plus, there's really nothing else he can do well.