Number of guns in society falling sharply

[Saigon]

Missourian -

No, we don't.

If the suicide rate did not drop SUBSTANTIALLY, the same number of people committed suicide.

Now take a look...and Australian authorities made this extremely difficult...they only wanted to show the last decade, not the time period directly before or after the buy back...

Yes, we do.

If a graph shows a line steadily rising and then leveling off, what see is a positve change. It absolutely shows that lives are being saved.

While the impact of legislation on Australian homicide rates seems to be contentious and disputed, the data on suicide rates seems to be accepted and reliable, particularly when viewed in light of the Harvard research on suicide which proved that guns are often used in suicides in heat of the moment cases - whereas methods that require more advance planning also ensure the person has time to think through their action.

From Wiki:

Suicide rates for both males and females have generally decreased since the mid-90s with the overall suicide rate decreasing by 23% between 1999 and 2009. Suicide rates for males peaked in 1997 at 23.6 per 100,000 but have steadily decreased since then and stood at 14.9 per 100 000 in 2009. Female rates reached a high of 6.2 per 100 000 in 1997. Rates declined after that and was 4.5 per 100 000 in 2009.

Suicide in Australia - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

So they peaked in 1997...and what year was that buyback?

 

[Missourian]

Missourian -

No, we don't.

If the suicide rate did not drop SUBSTANTIALLY, the same number of people committed suicide.

Now take a look...and Australian authorities made this extremely difficult...they only wanted to show the last decade, not the time period directly before or after the buy back...

Yes, we do.

If a graph shows a line steadily rising and then leveling off, what see is a positve change. It absolutely shows that lives are being saved.

While the impact of legislation on Australian homicide rates seems to be contentious and disputed, the data on suicide rates seems to be accepted and reliable, particularly when viewed in light of the Harvard research on suicide which proved that guns are often used in suicides in heat of the moment cases - whereas methods that require more advance planning also ensure the person has time to think through their action.

From Wiki:

Suicide rates for both males and females have generally decreased since the mid-90s with the overall suicide rate decreasing by 23% between 1999 and 2009. Suicide rates for males peaked in 1997 at 23.6 per 100,000 but have steadily decreased since then and stood at 14.9 per 100 000 in 2009. Female rates reached a high of 6.2 per 100 000 in 1997. Rates declined after that and was 4.5 per 100 000 in 2009.

Suicide in Australia - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

So they peaked in 1997...and what year was that buyback?

Look at the numbers...not a sentence in Wikipedia.

1998 the rate was 14.3

1999-2001 the rates were the same as 1993-1996.

Nothing changed.

The reduction was fuel almost entirely by less NON-FIREARM suicides.

Firearm suicide reduction continued at the same rate as the pre-buyback reduction.

If the buyback was the cause, the overall suicide rate should have dropped like a stone after the guns were confiscated...

...but the fact is they did not.

I have given you the facts, what else can I do to make you see the truth?

 

[Saigon]

Missourian -

the overall suicide rate should have dropped like a stone after the guns were confiscated...

Should it? Why?

I would never expect that if guns were banned outright in the US tomorrow, that homicide or suicide rates would "drop like a stone". That makes no sense to me at all.

I would expect a very slow downwards trend at first, accelerating over many years. It wouldn't surprise me at all if no change were even visible for several years.

The fact remains - the buyback began in 1997. The suicide rate peaked in 1997.

I do not think that is coincidence.

 

[Missourian]

Missourian -

the overall suicide rate should have dropped like a stone after the guns were confiscated...

Should it? Why?

I would never expect that if guns were banned outright in the US tomorrow, that homicide or suicide rates would "drop like a stone". That makes no sense to me at all.

I would expect a very slow downwards trend at first, accelerating over many years. It wouldn't surprise me at all if no change were even visible for several years.

The fact remains - the buyback began in 1997. The suicide rate peaked in 1997.

I do not think that is coincidence.

In 1997 and 1998 there was a 10% INCREASE in suicides...AFTER the buyback.

Immediately following the Buyback there was a fall in firearm suicides which was more than offset by a 10% increase in total suicides in 1997 and 1998. There were concerted efforts in suicide prevention from this time and in subsequent years the total suicide rate resumed its decline.

<SNIP>

De Leo, Dwyer, Firman & Neulinger,[33] studied suicide methods in men from 1979 to 1998 and found a rise in hanging suicides that started slightly before the fall in gun suicides. As hanging suicides rose at about the same rate as gun suicides fell, it is possible that there was some substitution of suicide methods. It has been noted that drawing strong conclusions about possible impacts of gun laws on suicides is challenging, because a number of suicide prevention programs were implemented from the mid-1990s onwards, and non-firearm suicides also began falling.[34]

In 2005 the head of the New South Wales Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research, Don Weatherburn,[35] noted that the level of legal gun ownership in New South Wales increased in recent years, and that the 1996 legislation had had little to no effect on violence.

<SNIP>

In 2006, the lack of a measurable effect from the 1996 firearms legislation was reported in the British Journal of Criminology. Using ARIMA analysis, Dr Jeanine Baker (a former state president of the SSAA(SA)) and Dr Samara McPhedran (Women in Shooting and Hunting) found no evidence for an impact of the laws on homicide.[38]

Weatherburn described the Baker & McPhedran article as "reputable" and "well-conducted" and stated that the available data are insufficient to draw stronger conclusions.[39] Weatherburn noted the importance of actively policing illegal firearm trafficking and argued that there was little evidence that the new laws had helped in this regard.[40]


Gun politics in Australia - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia


​

Now, that should settle this.


I have done all the work, presented all the facts.

After the buyback, firearm suicide decreased, but the overall suicide rate INCREASED. No lives saved.


The studies have been cited...the graphs presented


And the conclusion is there is NO EVIDENCE that the gun buyback was responsible for any reduction in suicide or homicide in Australia.

 

[JimBowie1958]

Missourian -

No, we don't.

If the suicide rate did not drop SUBSTANTIALLY, the same number of people committed suicide.

Now take a look...and Australian authorities made this extremely difficult...they only wanted to show the last decade, not the time period directly before or after the buy back...

Yes, we do.

If a graph shows a line steadily rising and then leveling off, what see is a positve change. It absolutely shows that lives are being saved.

While the impact of legislation on Australian homicide rates seems to be contentious and disputed, the data on suicide rates seems to be accepted and reliable, particularly when viewed in light of the Harvard research on suicide which proved that guns are often used in suicides in heat of the moment cases - whereas methods that require more advance planning also ensure the person has time to think through their action.

...

So they peaked in 1997...and what year was that buyback?

Dear Lord.

You are being deliberately obtuse.

 

[skookerasbil]

Of all the topics you see on these message board forums, making a correlation with guns and suicides is definately the stupidest. People jumping on these threads have the most significant connect the dots issues one will find. Afuckingmazing........but a hoot for boardmembers who recognize that taking a dive off a building or a super 8-ball works just as good as 00 buck!!

I guess its somehow less romantically tragic or some shit......"well, maybe a do-gooder can talk a nut off a ledge......but a bullet moves too fast!!!"

 

[Saigon]

Missourian-

And again I can only ask - why on earth would you expect any change in legislation to have an immediate effect and cause suicides to "drop like a stone"?

That makes no sense at all.

 

[Unkotare]

Of all the topics you see on these message board forums, making a correlation with guns and suicides is definately the stupidest. People jumping on these threads have the most significant connect the dots issues one will find. Afuckingmazing........but a hoot for boardmembers who recognize that taking a dive off a building or a super 8-ball works just as good as 00 buck!!

I guess its somehow less romantically tragic or some shit......"well, maybe a do-gooder can talk a nut off a ledge......but a bullet moves too fast!!!"

Be fair. The bullet just had a difficult childhood.

 

[Missourian]

Missourian-

And again I can only ask - why on earth would you expect any change in legislation to have an immediate effect and cause suicides to "drop like a stone"?

That makes no sense at all.

What else would be the point?

Your contention is "banning guns would save lives by reducing suicide".

But the reality is removing guns only reduced the firearm suicides, but the overall suicide rate INCREASED.

That means removing the guns accomplished nothing.

If it accomplishes nothing, there is no point in doing it.

Therefore, using the suicide rate as a rationale for banning guns is faulty.

Which is the position we've been proving for 10 pages.

 

[Saigon]

Missourian -

Absolutely. If the gun legislation changed in the US tomorrow, within a few years both the suicide rate and homicide rate would be greatly reduced. I consider this is basic statistical likelihood based on the experience of other countries.

But would it drop immediately?

Probably not. It takes time for the guns to be bought back, after all.

How can a ban on a weapon work before the weapon has been removed from the streets. In any system, that is going to take 2 -5 years.

But the reality is removing guns only reduced the firearm suicides, but the overall suicide rate INCREASED.

That means removing the guns accomplished nothing.

That is not true, and has been proven not to be true by Harvard, who established that gun suicides tend to be more 'heat of the moment' than methods which require more planning, and where guns were removed from the equation, the suicides were often avoided. Removing guns from homes simply and clearly helps prevent both suicides and gun accidents.

This is proven, statistical fact.

(I may try and find the research for you, although I think the point makes fairly obvious logical sense anyway.)

 

[Missourian]

Missourian -

Absolutely. If the gun legislation changed in the US tomorrow, within a few years both the suicide rate and homicide rate would be greatly reduced. I consider this is basic statistical likelihood based on the experience of other countries.

But would it drop immediately?

Probably not. It takes time for the guns to be bought back, after all.

How can a ban on a weapon work before the weapon has been removed from the streets. In any system, that is going to take 2 -5 years.

But the reality is removing guns only reduced the firearm suicides, but the overall suicide rate INCREASED.

That means removing the guns accomplished nothing.

That is not true, and has been proven not to be true by Harvard, who established that gun suicides tend to be more 'heat of the moment' than methods which require more planning, and where guns were removed from the equation, the suicides were often avoided. Removing guns from homes simply and clearly helps prevent both suicides and gun accidents.

This is proven, statistical fact.

(I may try and find the research for you, although I think the point makes fairly obvious logical sense anyway.)

Have you been reading what I've been posting?

That is exactly what happened in Australia.

The gun buyback was 1996.

In 1997 the firearm suicide rate went down, but the overall suicide rate INCREASED and stayed higher or equal for four years.

And the firearm suicide rate didn't drop dramatically...it dropped at the same steady rate it had been dropping at for years.


Look and see...

This is the third or fourth time I've proved this same point.

 

[jon_berzerk]

from the Harvard source


The authors, in noting
that the presence of a gun in a home corresponds to a higher
risk of suicide, apparently assume that if denied firearms,
potential suicides will decide to live rather than turning to
the numerous alternative suicide mechanisms. The evidence,
however, indicates that denying one particular means to
people who are motivated to commit suicide by social, eco&#8208;
nomic, cultural, or other circumstances simply pushes them
to some other means.44

 

[Saigon]

Guns and suicide: A fatal link

In the United States, suicides outnumber homicides almost two to one. Perhaps the real tragedy behind suicide deaths&#8212;about 30,000 a year, one for every 45 attempts&#8212;is that so many could be prevented. Research shows that whether attempters live or die depends in large part on the ready availability of highly lethal means, especially firearms.

A study by the Harvard School of Public Health of all 50 U.S. states reveals a powerful link between rates of firearm ownership and suicides. Based on a survey of American households conducted in 2002, HSPH Assistant Professor of Health Policy and Management Matthew Miller, Research Associate Deborah Azrael, and colleagues at the School&#8217;s Injury Control Research Center (ICRC), found that in states where guns were prevalent&#8212;as in Wyoming, where 63 percent of households reported owning guns&#8212;rates of suicide were higher. The inverse was also true: where gun ownership was less common, suicide rates were also lower.

Harvard School of Public Health » HSPH News » Guns and suicide: A fatal link

Note that the TOTAL suicide rate was lower - meaning that suicides were reduced.

The same thing clearly occured in Australia, because we know that the number of gun suicides reduced proportionally to the number of guns removed from society, but this does not mean that other factors can also impact on suicide rates.

 

[Saigon]

In 1997 the firearm suicide rate went down, but the overall suicide rate INCREASED and stayed higher or equal for four years.

Yes, I don't doubt it at all. And of course in the UK the homicide rate also continued to climb for a few years after the law change, until such time as the guns had been removed from society.

What we know:

Ten years on from gun control in Australia, the suicide rate is lower.

Ten years on from gun control in the UK, the homicide rate is lower.

Coincidence?

I think not.

 

[westwall]

Missourian -

Absolutely. If the gun legislation changed in the US tomorrow, within a few years both the suicide rate and homicide rate would be greatly reduced. I consider this is basic statistical likelihood based on the experience of other countries.

But would it drop immediately?

Probably not. It takes time for the guns to be bought back, after all.

How can a ban on a weapon work before the weapon has been removed from the streets. In any system, that is going to take 2 -5 years.

But the reality is removing guns only reduced the firearm suicides, but the overall suicide rate INCREASED.

That means removing the guns accomplished nothing.

That is not true, and has been proven not to be true by Harvard, who established that gun suicides tend to be more 'heat of the moment' than methods which require more planning, and where guns were removed from the equation, the suicides were often avoided. Removing guns from homes simply and clearly helps prevent both suicides and gun accidents.

This is proven, statistical fact.

(I may try and find the research for you, although I think the point makes fairly obvious logical sense anyway.)

Have you been reading what I've been posting?

That is exactly what happened in Australia.

The gun buyback was 1996.

In 1997 the firearm suicide rate went down, but the overall suicide rate INCREASED and stayed higher or equal for four years.

And the firearm suicide rate didn't drop dramatically...it dropped at the same steady rate it had been dropping at for years.


Look and see...

This is the third or fourth time I've proved this same point.

saggy, and the rest of his socialist buddies, don't do facts. Facts destroy their meme so they ignore them. Their goal is the disarmament and subjugation of the unwashed so they can kill off those they want to and have a nice "clean" Earth un-polluted by people.

 

[westwall]

In 1997 the firearm suicide rate went down, but the overall suicide rate INCREASED and stayed higher or equal for four years.

Yes, I don't doubt it at all. And of course in the UK the homicide rate also continued to climb for a few years after the law change, until such time as the guns had been removed from society.

What we know:

Ten years on from gun control in Australia, the suicide rate is lower.

Ten years on from gun control in the UK, the homicide rate is lower.

Coincidence?

I think not.

And now, with no guns, the UK suicide rate is .2 lower than ours. Your argument fails yet again.

 

[JimBowie1958]

In 1997 the firearm suicide rate went down, but the overall suicide rate INCREASED and stayed higher or equal for four years.

Yes, I don't doubt it at all. And of course in the UK the homicide rate also continued to climb for a few years after the law change, until such time as the guns had been removed from society.

What we know:

Ten years on from gun control in Australia, the suicide rate is lower.

Ten years on from gun control in the UK, the homicide rate is lower.

Coincidence?

I think not.

And now, with no guns, the UK suicide rate is .2 lower than ours. Your argument fails yet again.

He isn't trying to present an argument, only a smoke screen.

 

[skookerasbil]

Guns and suicide: A fatal link

In the United States, suicides outnumber homicides almost two to one. Perhaps the real tragedy behind suicide deaths—about 30,000 a year, one for every 45 attempts—is that so many could be prevented. Research shows that whether attempters live or die depends in large part on the ready availability of highly lethal means, especially firearms.

A study by the Harvard School of Public Health of all 50 U.S. states reveals a powerful link between rates of firearm ownership and suicides. Based on a survey of American households conducted in 2002, HSPH Assistant Professor of Health Policy and Management Matthew Miller, Research Associate Deborah Azrael, and colleagues at the School’s Injury Control Research Center (ICRC), found that in states where guns were prevalent—as in Wyoming, where 63 percent of households reported owning guns—rates of suicide were higher. The inverse was also true: where gun ownership was less common, suicide rates were also lower.

Harvard School of Public Health » HSPH News » Guns and suicide: A fatal link

Note that the TOTAL suicide rate was lower - meaning that suicides were reduced.

The same thing clearly occured in Australia, because we know that the number of gun suicides reduced proportionally to the number of guns removed from society, but this does not mean that other factors can also impact on suicide rates.

I love the mental cases on this forum, in fact, its what keeps me coming back in here. They have a complete inabiity to think on the margin. Its fucking fascinating.


Anyway......a moot point really............

Heres the point that is the shit........recently completed Harvard University study determines conclusively..........

The study showed that nations with strict gun control laws have substantially higher murder rates than those who do not. In fact, the 9 European nations with the lowest gun ownership rate have a combined murder rate that is three times that of the nine European nations with the highest gun ownership rate.



more guns = less crimes


Does Owning Guns Reduce Crime?

 

[Missourian]

Can it be that the fascination with guns is slowly coming to an end?

And can it be that the reason the US homicide rate is falling is because the number of households owning guns is falling?

It seems so, according to both the NY Times and LA Times, Gallup and the General Social Survey:

The share of American households with guns has declined over the past four decades, a national survey shows, with some of the most surprising drops in the South and the Western mountain states, where guns are deeply embedded in the culture.

The household gun ownership rate has fallen from an average of 50 percent in the 1970s to 49 percent in the 1980s, 43 percent in the 1990s and 35 percent in the 2000s, according to the survey data, analyzed by The New York Times.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/10/u...is-down-survey-shows.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0

The major point is that the American “culture of gun ownership” that one often hears about has been strikingly on the wane for the past generation. A similar decline has taken place in the number of Americans who hunt, now about 5% of the population.

Crime is down -- and so is gun ownership - Los Angeles Times

Just found this today.

Guns | Gallup Historical Trends

 

[Darkwind]

Can it be that the fascination with guns is slowly coming to an end?

And can it be that the reason the US homicide rate is falling is because the number of households owning guns is falling?

It seems so, according to both the NY Times and LA Times, Gallup and the General Social Survey:

The share of American households with guns has declined over the past four decades, a national survey shows, with some of the most surprising drops in the South and the Western mountain states, where guns are deeply embedded in the culture.

The household gun ownership rate has fallen from an average of 50 percent in the 1970s to 49 percent in the 1980s, 43 percent in the 1990s and 35 percent in the 2000s, according to the survey data, analyzed by The New York Times.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/10/u...is-down-survey-shows.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0

The major point is that the American &#8220;culture of gun ownership&#8221; that one often hears about has been strikingly on the wane for the past generation. A similar decline has taken place in the number of Americans who hunt, now about 5% of the population.

Crime is down -- and so is gun ownership - Los Angeles Times

LMAO


Couldn't be that American citizens are getting more and more concerned at the rights being destroyed by the left and instead of talking openly about having guns, they now just keep silent.

Of course, that somehow equates to losing interest in guns.