Now even CBS doubts a blue wave is coming; can we stop making believe one is coming?

[Pop23]

What the fuck are you talking about? I simply said we can’t believe conventional wisdom when it comes to this . Why are you rambling?

Conventional wisdom has the Dems winning by 30-50 seats.

What if they won by 100?

Is this what you meant by "nothing is as we think?"

Or are victories that you approve of the only ones that you are referring to?

Are you really this stupid? The poster said there is no debate as to which party will pick up seats. I simply stated given what happened in the last election, nothing is for certain. I made no prediction of who will win and frankly don’t care. Calm the fuck down.

Toro’s Pulling your chain dude.

Way to early to tell especially in the mid terms no one pays attention until after Labor Day.

 

[rightwinger]

Mueller will have an October surprise for Trump, yes.

I think regardless, it will make Republicans look bad

Even at best, Trump looks inept
At worst, he is Nixon on steroids

 

[CarlinAnnArbor]

Warning! “Conservatives” who constantly search for things to be afraid of will not be able to read this all the way through.

A report CBS probably wishes it never let see the light of day, says its polling “expert” doesn’t see a blue wave; in fact, a careful reading of the CBS report says a red wave may very well be on its way.

CBS has adopted the LA Times/USC Dornsife method of polling by compiling a large sample of respondents who are willing to be polled periodically on a continuous basis.

What CBS found is that there is no groundswell of voters itching to vote Democrat in the 25 “Battleground” Congressional districts it has focused on.

To give the left every chance to prevail, CBS has been polling only in Republican held seats identified by the left leaning Charlie Cook as “toss ups.”

Of the 25 seats, Cook assigns a partisan edge of +5 for Democrats in one and +1 for Democrats in another.

There are four seats rated EVEN by Cook.

There are 19 districts Cook gives a partisan edge of between one point and 3 points to Republicans.

In 6 districts Cook assigns a partisan edge of 4 or more to Republicans.

This means these districts already vote Republican and already have a Republican incumbent so naming only them as “toss ups” is based on wishful thinking.

In a recently posted article the New York Times wrote about the likelihood of two Minnesota Congressional districts flipping from Democrat to Republican.

It also added there are two Nevada seats, one Pennsylvania seat, one Florida seat, and one Arizona seat that could flip from Democrat to Republican as well.

But the bad news for those looking for something to be afraid of doesn’t stop there.

Last week the Politico posted a story that breathlessly described how the Democrats were “cutting into the GOP’s longstanding turnout advantage in midterm elections.

They called this “another encouraging sign for the minority party’s hopes of winning the House in November.”

That’s where the good news for Democrats ended.

The next paragraphs told of a “big jump” in Democrat enthusiasm.

In effect, it said Democrats were now ONLY down 9 points to Republicans in enthusiasm at 75/66 in the “very motivated to vote” category.

After that the “report” reverted to the type of murky semi-sensical language the Democrat controlled media uses to hide the truth.

The writer immediately contradicted himself by saying Democrats are just 3 points behind at 75/72 in enthusiasm.

So, the question becomes why talk about being behind 75/66 first when the real numbers are 75/72?

Answer: Because the 75/66 number is the true one.

On top of this the Democrat generic lead is gone (yes, they are up by 2.25% but that is way off what they need to win back the House); and Black support for Donald Trump is at 36% in the Rasmussen survey.

There is no question that this will translate into an advantage for Republicans. African Americans want the same of life that everyone else does.

They want a job and a growing economy to raise a family in.

Clearly Blacks are beginning to recognize it is Trump’s policies that are bringing them closer to their goals.

They will support the candidates Trump endorses.

............................

The Cook Political Index (CPI)is an historical index. It’s a good metric because voters tend to vote the same way that they voted last time. Except when they don’t. Additionally, turnout is always less in midterm elections compared with Presidential elections. Turnout in midterm elections tend to favor the Republicans, historically Democrats stay at home for the midterms. These polls are showing that it looks like this year will probably be a typical midterm election and people will vote the way that they voted in 2016. That means another Red Wave, not a Blue Wave.

The media have been telling us that there will be a Blue Wave because that’s what they want to happen, not necessarily what will happen. More likely, the reports of Democrat enthusiasm are exaggerated and Democrats will behave in line with historic midterms.

/----/ Republicans need to make sure there is a big turnout. Don't be complacent and think it's in the bag.

You're right. History is against us, and the left are lemmings programed to believe Trump is the reincarnation of Hitler. They WILL turn out. If we don't, we have no one to blame but ourselves.

 

[rightwinger]

If the Mueller report is bad......Republicans will stay home

 

[EverCurious]

The reality is that out of 300k plus registered voters only like 150k bothered to vote for president. Like half the country doesn't give two shits about politics... I'd say out of the other half, maybe a quarter actually care and vote on issues, the rest all vote by letter.

We'll all reap what we sowed by not teaching our kids that politics are important to them.

 

[JakeStarkey]

If Mueller does not exonerate Trump, the mainstrem GOP, the independents, and every Democrat in America will vote against Trump candidates.

 

[OODA_Loop]

If the Mueller report is bad......Republicans will stay home

Yes like they stayed home instead of voting for Trump.

 

[rightwinger]

If Mueller does not exonerate Trump, the mainstrem GOP, the independents, and every Democrat in America will vote against Trump candidates.

No way Trump gets exonerated
At best, he comes off as grossly incompetent in building a staff

At worst, he is looking at prison

If Mueller drops his report......Dems will be outraged and storm the polls
Republicans will stay home in disgust

 

[EverCurious]

We'll see. So far I haven't seen anything that puts Trump in a bad light on this Russia collusion thing. And on the "obstruction" thing Comey was basically a twat, everyone in the country on all sides of the aisle thought so at some point or another - right up until the MSM suggested it could be obstruction anyway, then he was "wrongfully terminated"

As far as Manafort cheating on his taxes years ago, I doubt too many are going to care really. I bet every single one of us has probably fucked up our taxes somehow in the past 30 years. There's a reason that H&R Block offers "tax fuck up insurance" the laws are damn near impossible to keep on top of heh

 

[busybee01]

Warning! “Conservatives” who constantly search for things to be afraid of will not be able to read this all the way through.

A report CBS probably wishes it never let see the light of day, says its polling “expert” doesn’t see a blue wave; in fact, a careful reading of the CBS report says a red wave may very well be on its way.

CBS has adopted the LA Times/USC Dornsife method of polling by compiling a large sample of respondents who are willing to be polled periodically on a continuous basis.

What CBS found is that there is no groundswell of voters itching to vote Democrat in the 25 “Battleground” Congressional districts it has focused on.

To give the left every chance to prevail, CBS has been polling only in Republican held seats identified by the left leaning Charlie Cook as “toss ups.”

Of the 25 seats, Cook assigns a partisan edge of +5 for Democrats in one and +1 for Democrats in another.

There are four seats rated EVEN by Cook.

There are 19 districts Cook gives a partisan edge of between one point and 3 points to Republicans.

In 6 districts Cook assigns a partisan edge of 4 or more to Republicans.

This means these districts already vote Republican and already have a Republican incumbent so naming only them as “toss ups” is based on wishful thinking.

In a recently posted article the New York Times wrote about the likelihood of two Minnesota Congressional districts flipping from Democrat to Republican.

It also added there are two Nevada seats, one Pennsylvania seat, one Florida seat, and one Arizona seat that could flip from Democrat to Republican as well.

But the bad news for those looking for something to be afraid of doesn’t stop there.

Last week the Politico posted a story that breathlessly described how the Democrats were “cutting into the GOP’s longstanding turnout advantage in midterm elections.

They called this “another encouraging sign for the minority party’s hopes of winning the House in November.”

That’s where the good news for Democrats ended.

The next paragraphs told of a “big jump” in Democrat enthusiasm.

In effect, it said Democrats were now ONLY down 9 points to Republicans in enthusiasm at 75/66 in the “very motivated to vote” category.

After that the “report” reverted to the type of murky semi-sensical language the Democrat controlled media uses to hide the truth.

The writer immediately contradicted himself by saying Democrats are just 3 points behind at 75/72 in enthusiasm.

So, the question becomes why talk about being behind 75/66 first when the real numbers are 75/72?

Answer: Because the 75/66 number is the true one.

On top of this the Democrat generic lead is gone (yes, they are up by 2.25% but that is way off what they need to win back the House); and Black support for Donald Trump is at 36% in the Rasmussen survey.

There is no question that this will translate into an advantage for Republicans. African Americans want the same of life that everyone else does.

They want a job and a growing economy to raise a family in.

Clearly Blacks are beginning to recognize it is Trump’s policies that are bringing them closer to their goals.

They will support the candidates Trump endorses.

............................

The Cook Political Index (CPI)is an historical index. It’s a good metric because voters tend to vote the same way that they voted last time. Except when they don’t. Additionally, turnout is always less in midterm elections compared with Presidential elections. Turnout in midterm elections tend to favor the Republicans, historically Democrats stay at home for the midterms. These polls are showing that it looks like this year will probably be a typical midterm election and people will vote the way that they voted in 2016. That means another Red Wave, not a Blue Wave.

The media have been telling us that there will be a Blue Wave because that’s what they want to happen, not necessarily what will happen. More likely, the reports of Democrat enthusiasm are exaggerated and Democrats will behave in line with historic midterms.

The LA Times/USC poll was a huge outlier. It had Trump with a 8 point lead as Clinton won the popular vote by 2. It was off by 10 points.

The CBS Battleground poll predicts a 33 seat pick up for Democrats according to the poll conducted by YouGov for CBS. It shows 4% of blacks are planning to vote for the Republican. Rasmussen is doing it's fake polls as I can guarantee 36% of blacks do not support Trump.

There are 68 or so seats that are less Republican than Ohio 12. Democrat margins have averaged around 10 points stronger than 2016. If you look at the partisan advantage in Cook's report, those seats would be gone if Democrats get a 10 point boost in 2018.

Then when you look at turnout it looks bad for Republicans. In Minnesota, 310,000 or so participated in gubernatorial primaries in 2014 with Democrats holding a 8,000 vote margin. In 2018. 903,000 people voted in gubernatorial primaries with Democrats holding a 262,000 vote advantage. In Texas, Democrats set a record for turnout in their primary. In the open Washington seat, more Democrats than Republicans did. In McMoriss-Rogers' seat, more Democrats vote and she won by less than 1,000 votes.

The Democrats are in good shape in both Minnesota House seats. In the 1st, Hagedorn is the nominee and a 3 time loser who has a woman problem. In the 8th, 20,000 more Democrats participated in the primary than did Republicans. In Nevada 3rd and 4th, Democrats start out with a 7-10,000 vote lead and higher turnouts.

I suspect the writer was talking about the Politico poll. Morning Consult tends to favor Trump. If they are showing a uptick in Democrat enthusiasm then it is clearly up.

Democrats in stronger position to take the House: CBS News Battleground Tracker

Jim Hagedorn: The worst Republican candidate in America?

 

[JakeStarkey]

If Morning Consult is indicating stronger support for Democrats, the Pubs are in real trouble.

Even RR is slipping in support of Trump.

President Trump Job Approval Monmouth Approve 43, Disapprove 51 Disapprove +8
President Trump Job Approval Gallup Approve 42, Disapprove 52 Disapprove +10
President Trump Job Approval Rasmussen Reports Approve 48, Disapprove 52 Disapprove +4

2018 Generic Congressional Vote Pew Research Democrats 46, Republicans 39 Democrats +7
2018 Generic Congressional Vote Reuters/Ipsos Democrats 45, Republicans 36 Democrats +9

 

[busybee01]

Some interesting statistics

• The Dems need to win 24 seats to regain control of the House
  
• The average swing in seats when a new President takes power two years later is 33 seats towards the party out of power.
• 44 Republican Congressmen are retiring, by far and away the most this century. 20 Democrats are retiring
  
• According to the Cook Report, 37 Republican-held seats are toss-ups, leaning or likely Democrat. There are 3 Democrat seats that are toss-ups, leaning or likely Republican.
• The average swing in all the House special elections since Trump was elected has been 15 points to the Democrats. In 2016, 38 Republicans won by 15 points or less.

/----/ And if you can just pick out the 6 correct numbers you can win the Powerball for $100 million. What's so tough about that?

Congressional elections are decided by who gets the most votes not a electoral college.

 

[Aba Incieni]

Yes, Socialism and abolishing ICE is so IN right now.

 

[EvilCat Breath]

Mueller's entire investigation is crumbling. In 30 days it will have died in a whisper. New York state will pick up whatever bones they can and pick at them.

 

[Cellblock2429]

Some interesting statistics

• The Dems need to win 24 seats to regain control of the House
  
• The average swing in seats when a new President takes power two years later is 33 seats towards the party out of power.
• 44 Republican Congressmen are retiring, by far and away the most this century. 20 Democrats are retiring
  
• According to the Cook Report, 37 Republican-held seats are toss-ups, leaning or likely Democrat. There are 3 Democrat seats that are toss-ups, leaning or likely Republican.
• The average swing in all the House special elections since Trump was elected has been 15 points to the Democrats. In 2016, 38 Republicans won by 15 points or less.

/----/ And if you can just pick out the 6 correct numbers you can win the Powerball for $100 million. What's so tough about that?

Congressional elections are decided by who gets the most votes not a electoral college.

/——-/ Thank you Captain Obvious

 

[rightwinger]

We'll see. So far I haven't seen anything that puts Trump in a bad light on this Russia collusion thing. And on the "obstruction" thing Comey was basically a twat, everyone in the country on all sides of the aisle thought so at some point or another - right up until the MSM suggested it could be obstruction anyway, then he was "wrongfully terminated"

As far as Manafort cheating on his taxes years ago, I doubt too many are going to care really. I bet every single one of us has probably fucked up our taxes somehow in the past 30 years. There's a reason that H&R Block offers "tax fuck up insurance" the laws are damn near impossible to keep on top of heh

Have you seen the evidence Mueller has collected?

Unlike Comey who never saw a camera he didn’t like, Mueller keeps his mouth shut as he methodically builds a case

 

[JakeStarkey]

Only idiots point at the EV victory in 2016 as having any bearing on the PV campaigns of 2018.

 

[Mac1958]

Well, we'll know a lot more in about 10 weeks.

This is all just noise.

 

[Cellblock2429]

The Democrats will gain seats in the House. That’s not even debatable. The Senate is up in the air at this point

/----/ "That’s not even debatable. " Well if Taz says we can't debate it, I guess we can't.

 

[PoliticalChic]

The Democrats will gain seats in the House. That’s not even debatable. The Senate is up in the air at this point

/----/ "That’s not even debatable. " Well if Taz says we can't debate it, I guess we can't.
View attachment 212022