Warning! “Conservatives” who constantly search for things to be afraid of will not be able to read this all the way through.
A report CBS probably wishes it never let see the light of day, says its polling “expert” doesn’t see a blue wave; in fact, a careful reading of the CBS report says a red wave may very well be on its way.
CBS has adopted the LA Times/USC Dornsife method of polling by compiling a large sample of respondents who are willing to be polled periodically on a continuous basis.
What CBS found is that there is no groundswell of voters itching to vote Democrat in the 25 “Battleground” Congressional districts it has focused on.
To give the left every chance to prevail, CBS has been polling only in Republican held seats identified by the left leaning Charlie Cook as “toss ups.”
Of the 25 seats, Cook assigns a partisan edge of +5 for Democrats in one and +1 for Democrats in another.
There are four seats rated EVEN by Cook.
There are 19 districts Cook gives a partisan edge of between one point and 3 points to Republicans.
In 6 districts Cook assigns a partisan edge of 4 or more to Republicans.
This means these districts already vote Republican and already have a Republican incumbent so naming only them as “toss ups” is based on wishful thinking.
In a recently posted article the New York Times wrote about the likelihood of two Minnesota Congressional districts flipping from Democrat to Republican.
It also added there are two Nevada seats, one Pennsylvania seat, one Florida seat, and one Arizona seat that could flip from Democrat to Republican as well.
But the bad news for those looking for something to be afraid of doesn’t stop there.
Last week the Politico posted a story that breathlessly described how the Democrats were “cutting into the GOP’s longstanding turnout advantage in midterm elections.
They called this “another encouraging sign for the minority party’s hopes of winning the House in November.”
That’s where the good news for Democrats ended.
The next paragraphs told of a “big jump” in Democrat enthusiasm.
In effect, it said Democrats were now ONLY down 9 points to Republicans in enthusiasm at 75/66 in the “very motivated to vote” category.
After that the “report” reverted to the type of murky semi-sensical language the Democrat controlled media uses to hide the truth.
The writer immediately contradicted himself by saying Democrats are just 3 points behind at 75/72 in enthusiasm.
So, the question becomes why talk about being behind 75/66 first when the real numbers are 75/72?
Answer: Because the 75/66 number is the true one.
On top of this the Democrat generic lead is gone (yes, they are up by 2.25% but that is way off what they need to win back the House); and Black support for Donald Trump is at 36% in the Rasmussen survey.
There is no question that this will translate into an advantage for Republicans. African Americans want the same of life that everyone else does.
They want a job and a growing economy to raise a family in.
Clearly Blacks are beginning to recognize it is Trump’s policies that are bringing them closer to their goals.
They will support the candidates Trump endorses.
............................
The Cook Political Index (CPI)is an historical index. It’s a good metric because voters tend to vote the same way that they voted last time. Except when they don’t. Additionally, turnout is always less in midterm elections compared with Presidential elections. Turnout in midterm elections tend to favor the Republicans, historically Democrats stay at home for the midterms. These polls are showing that it looks like this year will probably be a typical midterm election and people will vote the way that they voted in 2016. That means another Red Wave, not a Blue Wave.
The media have been telling us that there will be a Blue Wave because that’s what they want to happen, not necessarily what will happen. More likely, the reports of Democrat enthusiasm are exaggerated and Democrats will behave in line with historic midterms.
A report CBS probably wishes it never let see the light of day, says its polling “expert” doesn’t see a blue wave; in fact, a careful reading of the CBS report says a red wave may very well be on its way.
CBS has adopted the LA Times/USC Dornsife method of polling by compiling a large sample of respondents who are willing to be polled periodically on a continuous basis.
What CBS found is that there is no groundswell of voters itching to vote Democrat in the 25 “Battleground” Congressional districts it has focused on.
To give the left every chance to prevail, CBS has been polling only in Republican held seats identified by the left leaning Charlie Cook as “toss ups.”
Of the 25 seats, Cook assigns a partisan edge of +5 for Democrats in one and +1 for Democrats in another.
There are four seats rated EVEN by Cook.
There are 19 districts Cook gives a partisan edge of between one point and 3 points to Republicans.
In 6 districts Cook assigns a partisan edge of 4 or more to Republicans.
This means these districts already vote Republican and already have a Republican incumbent so naming only them as “toss ups” is based on wishful thinking.
In a recently posted article the New York Times wrote about the likelihood of two Minnesota Congressional districts flipping from Democrat to Republican.
It also added there are two Nevada seats, one Pennsylvania seat, one Florida seat, and one Arizona seat that could flip from Democrat to Republican as well.
But the bad news for those looking for something to be afraid of doesn’t stop there.
Last week the Politico posted a story that breathlessly described how the Democrats were “cutting into the GOP’s longstanding turnout advantage in midterm elections.
They called this “another encouraging sign for the minority party’s hopes of winning the House in November.”
That’s where the good news for Democrats ended.
The next paragraphs told of a “big jump” in Democrat enthusiasm.
In effect, it said Democrats were now ONLY down 9 points to Republicans in enthusiasm at 75/66 in the “very motivated to vote” category.
After that the “report” reverted to the type of murky semi-sensical language the Democrat controlled media uses to hide the truth.
The writer immediately contradicted himself by saying Democrats are just 3 points behind at 75/72 in enthusiasm.
So, the question becomes why talk about being behind 75/66 first when the real numbers are 75/72?
Answer: Because the 75/66 number is the true one.
On top of this the Democrat generic lead is gone (yes, they are up by 2.25% but that is way off what they need to win back the House); and Black support for Donald Trump is at 36% in the Rasmussen survey.
There is no question that this will translate into an advantage for Republicans. African Americans want the same of life that everyone else does.
They want a job and a growing economy to raise a family in.
Clearly Blacks are beginning to recognize it is Trump’s policies that are bringing them closer to their goals.
They will support the candidates Trump endorses.
............................
The Cook Political Index (CPI)is an historical index. It’s a good metric because voters tend to vote the same way that they voted last time. Except when they don’t. Additionally, turnout is always less in midterm elections compared with Presidential elections. Turnout in midterm elections tend to favor the Republicans, historically Democrats stay at home for the midterms. These polls are showing that it looks like this year will probably be a typical midterm election and people will vote the way that they voted in 2016. That means another Red Wave, not a Blue Wave.
The media have been telling us that there will be a Blue Wave because that’s what they want to happen, not necessarily what will happen. More likely, the reports of Democrat enthusiasm are exaggerated and Democrats will behave in line with historic midterms.
