National Home Prices Double Dip

[Trajan]

for christ sakes...what next?






It's official.

Home prices have double dipped nationwide, now lower than their March 2009 trough, according to a new report from Clear Capital.

It was inevitable, and it was predicted (by me for sure) that a surge in sales of foreclosed properties and a big push by banks to facilitate short sales would force home prices down dramatically.

Sales of bank-owned (REO) properties hit 34.5 percent of the market, according to the survey, resulting in a national price drop of 4.9 percent quarterly and 5 percent year-over-year. National home prices have fallen 11.5 percent in the past nine months, a rate not seen since 2008. Add short sales, where the bank allows the borrower to sell for less than the value of the mortgage, and prices have nowhere to go but down.

"With more than one-third of national home sales being REO (bank owned), market prices are being weighed down as many markets have not regained enough footing to withstand the strain of the high proportion of REO sales," says Clear Capital's Alex Villacorta.

more at-

News Headlines

 

[Samson]

Well, the good news is that Boulder County appraised my home -$15,000 than what it was last year.








The bad news is they're raising the tax rate on home values

 

[Trajan]

Well, the good news is that Boulder County appraised my home -$15,000 than what it was last year.








The bad news is they're raising the tax rate on home values

well at least you are still above water, a lot of peeps aren't, but that sux anyway.

 

[Samson]

Well, the good news is that Boulder County appraised my home -$15,000 than what it was last year.








The bad news is they're raising the tax rate on home values

well at least you are still above water, a lot of peeps aren't, but that sux anyway.

As long as my rep power is higher than yours, I'll be happy.

 

[Trajan]

 

[Tank]

It will level off when we reach a equal par with homes in Mexico

 

[william the wie]

I'm waiting for the strategic default wave to hit. At some critical number of either underwater mortgages 30%, 33%, 40% or 50% or REOs and shortsales as a part of the market the housing market will crash through the trendline heavily the real question is what measurement of trendline to use. Reversion to the mean in oz. of Gold or Silver, house price as a multiple of income, real dollars and other measures all give very different answers. Median house nationwide could go to $45K on house price as a multiple of income but that would just about collapse the west coast and northeast states setting off mass migration.

This is going to get extremely weird because a housing crash of this magnitude has never been seen before.

 

[Samson]

I'm waiting for the strategic default wave to hit. At some critical number of either underwater mortgages 30%, 33%, 40% or 50% or REOs and shortsales as a part of the market the housing market will crash through the trendline heavily the real question is what measurement of trendline to use. Reversion to the mean in oz. of Gold or Silver, house price as a multiple of income, real dollars and other measures all give very different answers. Median house nationwide could go to $45K on house price as a multiple of income but that would just about collapse the west coast and northeast states setting off mass migration.

This is going to get extremely weird because a housing crash of this magnitude has never been seen before.

I believe this is what you're trying to say:

 

[Trajan]

I'm waiting for the strategic default wave to hit. At some critical number of either underwater mortgages 30%, 33%, 40% or 50% or REOs and shortsales as a part of the market the housing market will crash through the trendline heavily the real question is what measurement of trendline to use. Reversion to the mean in oz. of Gold or Silver, house price as a multiple of income, real dollars and other measures all give very different answers. Median house nationwide could go to $45K on house price as a multiple of income but that would just about collapse the west coast and northeast states setting off mass migration.

This is going to get extremely weird because a housing crash of this magnitude has never been seen before.

I believe this is what you're trying to say:

wow.....seriously.....

 

[sparky]

evidence one can't rely on 'current stats' in a sine wave economy

but then, most rhetoric is based on a narrow sampling

that said, consider your (yes you mr. proud homeowner) assessment / apprasial ratio

two , yes two mints in one!......

 

[william the wie]

I'm waiting for the strategic default wave to hit. At some critical number of either underwater mortgages 30%, 33%, 40% or 50% or REOs and shortsales as a part of the market the housing market will crash through the trendline heavily the real question is what measurement of trendline to use. Reversion to the mean in oz. of Gold or Silver, house price as a multiple of income, real dollars and other measures all give very different answers. Median house nationwide could go to $45K on house price as a multiple of income but that would just about collapse the west coast and northeast states setting off mass migration.

This is going to get extremely weird because a housing crash of this magnitude has never been seen before.

I believe this is what you're trying to say:

Exactly. Notice that the pre-boom time of prices above and below trendline are close to equal? The same would be true post-boom only total housing is something like 130% of population and equilibrium is around 111% of population. That is going to require three things to get to market clearance:

Very low prices. 1.1-1.8 Price times income on your scale if I'm reading it right.

Relocation and population growth. About 9% population growth and about 8% interstate relocations to create local pockets of housing shortage.

The destruction of housing in areas losing population. Already being seen in Detroit and Baltimore. California like FL and TX is a state where the working homeless and their children or elderly can generally survive living in their cars so the worst I expect to see there is low or no population growth if Sacramento stays somewhat sane. Here in FL we are getting educated Yankees, mostly black, taking over the skilled and semi-skilled jobs in grocery stores and big box stores, which is strange. Hearing the question "Paper or plastic?" spoken in Larchmont lockjaw by a man 40-60 is becoming common.

I figure 5-10 years before house appreciation gets reported by Case-Shiller for the nation.

 

[Big Fitz]

So I should wait a bit before purchasing a house? Good to know.

I know that in the Twin Cities things are desperately bad in the housing market. My friends who are contractors are facing very grim realities in employment since there is NO new housing happening around here except for the scant minimum possible.

One contractor calling in to the morning show I listen to reported that 7 years of backlogged work vanished in the space of months.

 

[expat_panama]

...a housing crash of this magnitude has never been seen before.

...Exactly. Notice that the pre-boom time of prices above and below trendline are close to equal? ...

There's so much mindless hype about one phony 'crisis' after another on these threads, rather than getting our info from a proprietary data knockoff here're the numbers from the Fed:

huh, it really is unprecedented.

 

[editec]

The only reason I'm above water is that I purchased my home in 91.

If I'd purchased it at market value in 2007 I estimate be about $60,000 under water.

 

[william the wie]

...Exactly. Notice that the pre-boom time of prices above and below trendline are close to equal? ...

There's so much mindless hype about one phony 'crisis' after another on these threads, rather than getting our info from a proprietary data knockoff here're the numbers from the Fed:

huh, it really is unprecedented.

If you use Case-Shiller data you get a much longer timeline it shows the 1920s bubble being nearly as bad but what is scary is most other countries have not organized their data and so far is as known this is the world's first global housing bubble, that is what I meant as unprecedented. My bad, I should have made that clear. The Japanese, Chinese, Irish, British, Australian, Canadian and Spanish bubbles of recent years are all much worse than what we have seen in the US. The 20s bubble that caused the great depression according to the age related spending models was bad but this global bubble is more widespread than anything to affect real estate since the post bubonic plague labor shortage of the 1350s.

 

[007]

Well... now hold on a minute... didn't the baboon in the white house fix the housing market? I mean I regularly hear the dems talking about the "recovery." How could things possibly be getting worse? ...

 

[william the wie]

Well... now hold on a minute... didn't the baboon in the white house fix the housing market? I mean I regularly hear the dems talking about the "recovery." How could things possibly be getting worse? ...

Not a big fan of Obama, I've voted LP since 1980, but that was the clown college drop-outs in congress in his first two years and his big Wall St. contributors getting a quid pro quo of Geithner and Bernancke for bankrolling his campaign that screwed the pooch. Obama recognizes that he is an economic idiot and has done no worse than Bush in his own actions towards the economy which for a community organizer vs. an MBA is not bad at all.

 

[expat_panama]

...use Case-Shiller data you get a much longer timeline it shows the 1920s bubble being nearly as bad....

Thanks for the heads-up. From googling "Case-Shiller data table download" this may be what you mentioned--

The prices don't seem to show a '20's bubble, just a 20-year depressed market. The 07 peak is there and the CS numbers pretty much match the Fed's new 1 fam. stats that also spiked 60% above previous peaks.

Looking to the future we can believe an additional 20% plunge to the floor we've had for half a century, or maybe a 50% drop down to the levels we had in the 20's and 30's.

Bleak.

 

[doctor100]

Two observations from the graph: it doesn't look like housing cost are done correcting; it would have been impossible to look at that chart before the crash and not see a bubble.

 

[Againsheila]

Well, the good news is that Boulder County appraised my home -$15,000 than what it was last year.








The bad news is they're raising the tax rate on home values

well at least you are still above water, a lot of peeps aren't, but that sux anyway.

As long as my rep power is higher than yours, I'll be happy.

If rep power makes a person happy, I need a lot of it.