How much is the Terrorist Premium on Oil?

Discussion in 'Economy' started by KissMy, May 5, 2011.

  1. KissMy
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    KissMy Free Breast Exam

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    How much is the Terrorist Premium on Oil?

    That is the amount that speculators drove up oil prices banking on making money from another terrorist attack.

    From 9/11/2001 until we invaded Iraq in 2003 Crude Oil prices climbed ~35% from $28 to $38 a barrel.

    Does that mean the Terrorist Premium on Oil is $10 or is it 35%? Because we just blew through $10 since Osama's death popped the commodities bubble.

    Discuss:
     
  2. FireFly
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    Dr. Nansen G. Saleri is President and CEO of Quantum Reservoir Impact. He was chief architect of Saudi Aramco's hugely successful reservoir management and water optimization programs, most notably for Ghawar, the world’s largest field.

    Nansen Saleri was just on CNBC this morning saying that any price over $70 oil is a result of terrorist, unrest, war, weather or anything that causes a risk of a supply disruption.

    This would put that premium at about 1/3rd of the price of Crude Oil.

    There is an OPEC meeting today to increase oil production quotas. The Saudi Prince wants to drive oil price down to $75 a barrel.

    Once Qaddafi is gone & the Middle East calms down we should see Crude Oil prices back down near $75.
     
    Last edited: Jun 8, 2011
  3. editec
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    I think the primary cause of the rise in oil has little to do with TERROR.

    Mostly it has to do with a rise in demand (thanks to emerging markets in Asia) and the recognition that the world supply OIL is finite.

    We see the price of oil change as the worlds economic activity waxes and wanes.

    Oil IS one of those resources where abundance or scarcity continues to play a large role in price.

    Certainly events that chance our perception of SUPPLY will effect today's prices, but in the long run>

    In the long run the biggest factor that seems to drive up prices is the growing DEMAND.
     
  4. Douger
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    Terruh ? Move where they aint no terruh.
    That's would be counties that don't support IsNtReal.
    Yes. These prices are in USD's .
     

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  5. FireFly
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    Increased global demand is responsible for taking oil from $20 to $70. The rest of the price increase is pure speculative supply fears. It cost less than $70 a barrel to produce oil from all the sources we are utilizing today. The rest is pure premium.

    The death of Osama Bin Laden took $15 off of the price of oil. The death or ouster of Qaddafi will drop the price another $7.
     
    Last edited: Jun 8, 2011
  6. waltky
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    Look for the EU to break apart too...
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    Divided cartel headed for 'slow, painful death'
    June 13, 2011 - NO one predicted the outcome of what had been billed as the most crucial OPEC summit for decades.
     
  7. Free Thinker
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    I agree. Bin Ladens demise and Qaddafi's eventual demise wil have positive lasting effects.
     
  8. waltky
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    OPEC makin' money comin' an' goin'...
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    Report: OPEC to earn $1 trillion in 2011
    July 22, 2011 -- Net oil export earnings of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will top $1 trillion this year, the Energy Information Administration said citing consolidated figures for the 12 member countries.
     
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    OPEC tryin' to keep prices from dropping...
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    OPEC cuts oil production and demand outlook
    September 12, 2011: OPEC cut its forecast Monday for global oil demand and production, citing the slowing economic recovery.
     
  10. Mr. H.
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