Nate Silver Say... Everything Nate Silver goes here

[Liability]

Who doesn't think there should be a few threads dedicated to Nate Silver and his magic elixir?

 

[Toro]

On his blog, Silver has 10-15 polls taken on Monday showing that almost all of them have moved towards Obama over the past few days based on the difference between each poll and their last poll.

3 reason Nate is full of shit

1) Independents will decide this election. In the final CNN poll of the campaign, Romney crushes Obama by 22 points among Independents. In every poll leading up to this election Mitt is WAY ahead with Independents. But this time it's different?

2) The Economy. It sucks. But this time is different?

3) Voter enthusiasm. Think 2010 midterms. Does anyone really think the GOP is going to stay home today? The Tea Party is dead? This time it's different?

What I wrote has nothing to do with Silver. He's merely reporting the polls. Basically, what you're saying is that all the polls are wrong, including Ras who now has Obama leading in swing states.

Are all the polls wrong? Maybe. But probably not.

 

[LordBrownTrout]

Who doesn't think there should be a few threads dedicated to Nate Silver and his magic elixir?

Pixie dust is everywhere. O gains 5 percent and 20 more electoral votes every hour in Silver's magical poll.

 

[Liability]

On his blog, Silver has 10-15 polls taken on Monday showing that almost all of them have moved towards Obama over the past few days based on the difference between each poll and their last poll.

3 reason Nate is full of shit

1) Independents will decide this election. In the final CNN poll of the campaign, Romney crushes Obama by 22 points among Independents. In every poll leading up to this election Mitt is WAY ahead with Independents. But this time it's different?

2) The Economy. It sucks. But this time is different?

3) Voter enthusiasm. Think 2010 midterms. Does anyone really think the GOP is going to stay home today? The Tea Party is dead? This time it's different?

What I wrote has nothing to do with Silver. He's merely reporting the polls. Basically, what you're saying is that all the polls are wrong, including Ras who now has Obama leading in swing states.

Are all the polls wrong? Maybe. But probably not.

When the polls seem to have a built in bias that ASSUMES that more Dims (by a hefty margin) will be thronging to the polls than GOP voters, there certainly IS a reason to doubt the polls.

And Natey merely recapitulates the "findings" of such polls. GiGo.

There is no reason to give either much credence.

IF, as I am still assuming, the Dims have a noticeably lower overall rate of "turnout" than they had in 2008, then the illusory Obama lead "predicted" by the polls will dissipate. THEN, assuming that the Independents ARE actually leaning (fairly decisively) toward, Mitt, the outcome even in the "swing" states is likely to be decidedly in Mitt's favor.

Natey can be rationally ignored since he isn't saying ANYTHING that isn't determined by the polls themselves.

What does matter is how accurate or inaccurate the polls have been (and may still be as the voters go to the real polling booths). There have been MANY good reasons to conclude that the professional polling done in the lead up to the actual vote has been inaccurate. The pollsters COULD have made some corrections (and may made done some belated minor efforts along those lines) as the flaws got exposed and analyzed. That they chose not to do so is a reflection of where they were headed.

 

[candycorn]

Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

It must suck even more than usual to be a right wing nut about now.

It must. Thinking about blowing off this evening though. There is a large steakhouse here in town with a giant R&R billboard in front of it. Great steak and good people work there. Thinking about going there tonight and getting a 10 ounce ribeye with baked potato.

My way of ending the partisanship.

 

[Zander]

On his blog, Silver has 10-15 polls taken on Monday showing that almost all of them have moved towards Obama over the past few days based on the difference between each poll and their last poll.

3 reason Nate is full of shit

1) Independents will decide this election. In the final CNN poll of the campaign, Romney crushes Obama by 22 points among Independents. In every poll leading up to this election Mitt is WAY ahead with Independents. But this time it's different?

2) The Economy. It sucks. But this time is different?

3) Voter enthusiasm. Think 2010 midterms. Does anyone really think the GOP is going to stay home today? The Tea Party is dead? This time it's different?

What I wrote has nothing to do with Silver. He's merely reporting the polls. Basically, what you're saying is that all the polls are wrong, including Ras who now has Obama leading in swing states.

Are all the polls wrong? Maybe. But probably not.

I always appreciate the dialogue Toro, we simply disagree! Silver does more than just report the polls, he weights them according to his own "gut" feelings and other factors - and puts out an opinion. He's been the sole source of leftist comfort these last 2-3 weeks as Romney has surged to the lead. I think after tomorrow he will be forever enshrined as a living breathing example of "confirmation bias".

As for the polls - not all of them are wrong, just most of them. The only reliable pollsters are Rasmussen and Gallup - and they are being very conservative in their turnout models. Most of the media and various college polls are assuming that Obama will replicate the D+7 turnout advantage that they enjoyed in 2008. Some have D+11 or even higher!! In my opinion, there is no possible way that D's are going to have a 7pt advantage in turnout- they will be lucky to match the Republicans. The electorate has changed. Obama has a "RECORD" now. He's not the blank canvas he was in 2008...

Let me go out on a limb here - Romney is going to kick Obama's skinny ass in this election like it was the first debate!

What do you think happened to all the people who were upset about Obamacare? What happened to all those people who voted in 2010? Does anyone really believe that those Tea party type Fiscal Conservatives are going to stay home? No...they won't.

What about those college students, ideologues, and welfare mothers that support Obama? Will a shiny new "Obama phone" be enough for them? Will graduating from college with a huge debt and no job prospects land Obama More or Less support from college students than he enjoyed in '08?



I believe today is going to be a bloodbath for Obama. He will lose Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin, Florida, Virginia, Colorado, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. Romney might pick off Michigan and Minnesota to boot!

The Lame-stream media and pollsters already have their spin sheets ready to explain why they were so wrong.........yet still right!!

 

[Toro]

3 reason Nate is full of shit

1) Independents will decide this election. In the final CNN poll of the campaign, Romney crushes Obama by 22 points among Independents. In every poll leading up to this election Mitt is WAY ahead with Independents. But this time it's different?

2) The Economy. It sucks. But this time is different?

3) Voter enthusiasm. Think 2010 midterms. Does anyone really think the GOP is going to stay home today? The Tea Party is dead? This time it's different?

What I wrote has nothing to do with Silver. He's merely reporting the polls. Basically, what you're saying is that all the polls are wrong, including Ras who now has Obama leading in swing states.

Are all the polls wrong? Maybe. But probably not.

When the polls seem to have a built in bias that ASSUMES that more Dims (by a hefty margin) will be thronging to the polls than GOP voters, there certainly IS a reason to doubt the polls.

And Natey merely recapitulates the "findings" of such polls. GiGo.

There is no reason to give either much credence.

IF, as I am still assuming, the Dims have a noticeably lower overall rate of "turnout" than they had in 2008, then the illusory Obama lead "predicted" by the polls will dissipate. THEN, assuming that the Independents ARE actually leaning (fairly decisively) toward, Mitt, the outcome even in the "swing" states is likely to be decidedly in Mitt's favor.

Natey can be rationally ignored since he isn't saying ANYTHING that isn't determined by the polls themselves.

What does matter is how accurate or inaccurate the polls have been (and may still be as the voters go to the real polling booths). There have been MANY good reasons to conclude that the professional polling done in the lead up to the actual vote has been inaccurate. The pollsters COULD have made some corrections (and may made done some belated minor efforts along those lines) as the flaws got exposed and analyzed. That they chose not to do so is a reflection of where they were headed.

That's possible. And we may find that all of the polls were oversampling Democrats. But three dozen or so? Probably not.

 

[Synthaholic]

3 reason Nate is full of shit

1) Independents will decide this election. In the final CNN poll of the campaign, Romney crushes Obama by 22 points among Independents. In every poll leading up to this election Mitt is WAY ahead with Independents. But this time it's different?

2) The Economy. It sucks. But this time is different?

3) Voter enthusiasm. Think 2010 midterms. Does anyone really think the GOP is going to stay home today? The Tea Party is dead? This time it's different?

What I wrote has nothing to do with Silver. He's merely reporting the polls. Basically, what you're saying is that all the polls are wrong, including Ras who now has Obama leading in swing states.

Are all the polls wrong? Maybe. But probably not.

I always appreciate the dialogue Toro, we simply disagree! Silver does more than just report the polls, he weights them according to his own "gut" feelings and other factors - and puts out an opinion. He's been the sole source of leftist comfort these last 2-3 weeks as Romney has surged to the lead. I think after tomorrow he will be forever enshrined as a living breathing example of "confirmation bias".

As for the polls - not all of them are wrong, just most of them. The only reliable pollsters are Rasmussen and Gallup - and they are being very conservative in their turnout models. Most of the media and various college polls are assuming that Obama will replicate the D+7 turnout advantage that they enjoyed in 2008. Some have D+11 or even higher!! In my opinion, there is no possible way that D's are going to have a 7pt advantage in turnout- they will be lucky to match the Republicans. The electorate has changed. Obama has a "RECORD" now. He's not the blank canvas he was in 2008...

Let me go out on a limb here - Romney is going to kick Obama's skinny ass in this election like it was the first debate!

What do you think happened to all the people who were upset about Obamacare? What happened to all those people who voted in 2010? Does anyone really believe that those Tea party type Fiscal Conservatives are going to stay home? No...they won't.

What about those college students, ideologues, and welfare mothers that support Obama? Will a shiny new "Obama phone" be enough for them? Will graduating from college with a huge debt and no job prospects land Obama More or Less support from college students than he enjoyed in '08?



I believe today is going to be a bloodbath for Obama. He will lose Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin, Florida, Virginia, Colorado, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. Romney might pick off Michigan and Minnesota to boot!

The Lame-stream media and pollsters already have their spin sheets ready to explain why they were so wrong.........yet still right!!

He has never used "gut" feeling, and has never injected his opinion.

His methodology is the same model he used for a poker prediction program he used to amass $300k in online poker. When the government started restricting and making illegal a lot of these online parlours, he switched to political predictions.

All data, no emotion.

 

[Synthaholic]

could a mod please merge this with one of the other 87 Nate Silver threads? thanks.

You are clearly unhinged and upset.

 

[Zander]

What I wrote has nothing to do with Silver. He's merely reporting the polls. Basically, what you're saying is that all the polls are wrong, including Ras who now has Obama leading in swing states.

Are all the polls wrong? Maybe. But probably not.

I always appreciate the dialogue Toro, we simply disagree! Silver does more than just report the polls, he weights them according to his own "gut" feelings and other factors - and puts out an opinion. He's been the sole source of leftist comfort these last 2-3 weeks as Romney has surged to the lead. I think after tomorrow he will be forever enshrined as a living breathing example of "confirmation bias".

As for the polls - not all of them are wrong, just most of them. The only reliable pollsters are Rasmussen and Gallup - and they are being very conservative in their turnout models. Most of the media and various college polls are assuming that Obama will replicate the D+7 turnout advantage that they enjoyed in 2008. Some have D+11 or even higher!! In my opinion, there is no possible way that D's are going to have a 7pt advantage in turnout- they will be lucky to match the Republicans. The electorate has changed. Obama has a "RECORD" now. He's not the blank canvas he was in 2008...

Let me go out on a limb here - Romney is going to kick Obama's skinny ass in this election like it was the first debate!

What do you think happened to all the people who were upset about Obamacare? What happened to all those people who voted in 2010? Does anyone really believe that those Tea party type Fiscal Conservatives are going to stay home? No...they won't.

What about those college students, ideologues, and welfare mothers that support Obama? Will a shiny new "Obama phone" be enough for them? Will graduating from college with a huge debt and no job prospects land Obama More or Less support from college students than he enjoyed in '08?



I believe today is going to be a bloodbath for Obama. He will lose Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin, Florida, Virginia, Colorado, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. Romney might pick off Michigan and Minnesota to boot!

The Lame-stream media and pollsters already have their spin sheets ready to explain why they were so wrong.........yet still right!!

He has never used "gut" feeling, and has never injected his opinion.

His methodology is the same model he used for a poker prediction program he used to amass $300k in online poker. When the government started restricting and making illegal a lot of these online parlours, he switched to political predictions.

All data, no emotion.

yeah sure..... I watched him explain his "model" on TV. He explained how he uses his "gut" to weigh each poll - just like he uses his "gut" in Poker.

 

[Synthaholic]

I always appreciate the dialogue Toro, we simply disagree! Silver does more than just report the polls, he weights them according to his own "gut" feelings and other factors - and puts out an opinion. He's been the sole source of leftist comfort these last 2-3 weeks as Romney has surged to the lead. I think after tomorrow he will be forever enshrined as a living breathing example of "confirmation bias".

As for the polls - not all of them are wrong, just most of them. The only reliable pollsters are Rasmussen and Gallup - and they are being very conservative in their turnout models. Most of the media and various college polls are assuming that Obama will replicate the D+7 turnout advantage that they enjoyed in 2008. Some have D+11 or even higher!! In my opinion, there is no possible way that D's are going to have a 7pt advantage in turnout- they will be lucky to match the Republicans. The electorate has changed. Obama has a "RECORD" now. He's not the blank canvas he was in 2008...

Let me go out on a limb here - Romney is going to kick Obama's skinny ass in this election like it was the first debate!

What do you think happened to all the people who were upset about Obamacare? What happened to all those people who voted in 2010? Does anyone really believe that those Tea party type Fiscal Conservatives are going to stay home? No...they won't.

What about those college students, ideologues, and welfare mothers that support Obama? Will a shiny new "Obama phone" be enough for them? Will graduating from college with a huge debt and no job prospects land Obama More or Less support from college students than he enjoyed in '08?



I believe today is going to be a bloodbath for Obama. He will lose Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin, Florida, Virginia, Colorado, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. Romney might pick off Michigan and Minnesota to boot!

The Lame-stream media and pollsters already have their spin sheets ready to explain why they were so wrong.........yet still right!!

He has never used "gut" feeling, and has never injected his opinion.

His methodology is the same model he used for a poker prediction program he used to amass $300k in online poker. When the government started restricting and making illegal a lot of these online parlours, he switched to political predictions.

All data, no emotion.

yeah sure..... I watched him explain his "model" on TV. He explained how he uses his "gut" to weigh each poll - just like he uses his "gut" in Poker.

Link?

I call bullshit.

 

[Toro]

3 reason Nate is full of shit

1) Independents will decide this election. In the final CNN poll of the campaign, Romney crushes Obama by 22 points among Independents. In every poll leading up to this election Mitt is WAY ahead with Independents. But this time it's different?

2) The Economy. It sucks. But this time is different?

3) Voter enthusiasm. Think 2010 midterms. Does anyone really think the GOP is going to stay home today? The Tea Party is dead? This time it's different?

What I wrote has nothing to do with Silver. He's merely reporting the polls. Basically, what you're saying is that all the polls are wrong, including Ras who now has Obama leading in swing states.

Are all the polls wrong? Maybe. But probably not.

I always appreciate the dialogue Toro, we simply disagree! Silver does more than just report the polls, he weights them according to his own "gut" feelings and other factors - and puts out an opinion. He's been the sole source of leftist comfort these last 2-3 weeks as Romney has surged to the lead. I think after tomorrow he will be forever enshrined as a living breathing example of "confirmation bias".

As for the polls - not all of them are wrong, just most of them. The only reliable pollsters are Rasmussen and Gallup - and they are being very conservative in their turnout models. Most of the media and various college polls are assuming that Obama will replicate the D+7 turnout advantage that they enjoyed in 2008. Some have D+11 or even higher!! In my opinion, there is no possible way that D's are going to have a 7pt advantage in turnout- they will be lucky to match the Republicans. The electorate has changed. Obama has a "RECORD" now. He's not the blank canvas he was in 2008...

Let me go out on a limb here - Romney is going to kick Obama's skinny ass in this election like it was the first debate!

What do you think happened to all the people who were upset about Obamacare? What happened to all those people who voted in 2010? Does anyone really believe that those Tea party type Fiscal Conservatives are going to stay home? No...they won't.

What about those college students, ideologues, and welfare mothers that support Obama? Will a shiny new "Obama phone" be enough for them? Will graduating from college with a huge debt and no job prospects land Obama More or Less support from college students than he enjoyed in '08?



I believe today is going to be a bloodbath for Obama. He will lose Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin, Florida, Virginia, Colorado, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. Romney might pick off Michigan and Minnesota to boot!

The Lame-stream media and pollsters already have their spin sheets ready to explain why they were so wrong.........yet still right!!

Where did you read that he goes on his gut?

I like Intrade better but I respect his work.

My guess is that conservatives are finding any reason why they aren't losing. Conservatives might be right but this seems highly emotional.

 

[Synthaholic]

What I wrote has nothing to do with Silver. He's merely reporting the polls. Basically, what you're saying is that all the polls are wrong, including Ras who now has Obama leading in swing states.

Are all the polls wrong? Maybe. But probably not.

I always appreciate the dialogue Toro, we simply disagree! Silver does more than just report the polls, he weights them according to his own "gut" feelings and other factors - and puts out an opinion. He's been the sole source of leftist comfort these last 2-3 weeks as Romney has surged to the lead. I think after tomorrow he will be forever enshrined as a living breathing example of "confirmation bias".

As for the polls - not all of them are wrong, just most of them. The only reliable pollsters are Rasmussen and Gallup - and they are being very conservative in their turnout models. Most of the media and various college polls are assuming that Obama will replicate the D+7 turnout advantage that they enjoyed in 2008. Some have D+11 or even higher!! In my opinion, there is no possible way that D's are going to have a 7pt advantage in turnout- they will be lucky to match the Republicans. The electorate has changed. Obama has a "RECORD" now. He's not the blank canvas he was in 2008...

Let me go out on a limb here - Romney is going to kick Obama's skinny ass in this election like it was the first debate!

What do you think happened to all the people who were upset about Obamacare? What happened to all those people who voted in 2010? Does anyone really believe that those Tea party type Fiscal Conservatives are going to stay home? No...they won't.

What about those college students, ideologues, and welfare mothers that support Obama? Will a shiny new "Obama phone" be enough for them? Will graduating from college with a huge debt and no job prospects land Obama More or Less support from college students than he enjoyed in '08?



I believe today is going to be a bloodbath for Obama. He will lose Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin, Florida, Virginia, Colorado, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. Romney might pick off Michigan and Minnesota to boot!

The Lame-stream media and pollsters already have their spin sheets ready to explain why they were so wrong.........yet still right!!

Where did you read that he goes on his gut?

I like Intrade better but I respect his work.

My guess is that conservatives are finding any reason why they aren't losing. Conservatives might be right but this seems highly emotional.

It would be funny to find out that Intrade is using Nate Silver as their criteria.

 

[candycorn]

What I wrote has nothing to do with Silver. He's merely reporting the polls. Basically, what you're saying is that all the polls are wrong, including Ras who now has Obama leading in swing states.

Are all the polls wrong? Maybe. But probably not.

I always appreciate the dialogue Toro, we simply disagree! Silver does more than just report the polls, he weights them according to his own "gut" feelings and other factors - and puts out an opinion. He's been the sole source of leftist comfort these last 2-3 weeks as Romney has surged to the lead. I think after tomorrow he will be forever enshrined as a living breathing example of "confirmation bias".

As for the polls - not all of them are wrong, just most of them. The only reliable pollsters are Rasmussen and Gallup - and they are being very conservative in their turnout models. Most of the media and various college polls are assuming that Obama will replicate the D+7 turnout advantage that they enjoyed in 2008. Some have D+11 or even higher!! In my opinion, there is no possible way that D's are going to have a 7pt advantage in turnout- they will be lucky to match the Republicans. The electorate has changed. Obama has a "RECORD" now. He's not the blank canvas he was in 2008...

Let me go out on a limb here - Romney is going to kick Obama's skinny ass in this election like it was the first debate!

What do you think happened to all the people who were upset about Obamacare? What happened to all those people who voted in 2010? Does anyone really believe that those Tea party type Fiscal Conservatives are going to stay home? No...they won't.

What about those college students, ideologues, and welfare mothers that support Obama? Will a shiny new "Obama phone" be enough for them? Will graduating from college with a huge debt and no job prospects land Obama More or Less support from college students than he enjoyed in '08?



I believe today is going to be a bloodbath for Obama. He will lose Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin, Florida, Virginia, Colorado, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. Romney might pick off Michigan and Minnesota to boot!

The Lame-stream media and pollsters already have their spin sheets ready to explain why they were so wrong.........yet still right!!

Where did you read that he goes on his gut?

I like Intrade better but I respect his work.

My guess is that conservatives are finding any reason why they aren't losing. Conservatives might be right but this seems highly emotional.

If Obama wins, I bet Unskewed polls still has Romney ahead.

 

[Zander]

What I wrote has nothing to do with Silver. He's merely reporting the polls. Basically, what you're saying is that all the polls are wrong, including Ras who now has Obama leading in swing states.

Are all the polls wrong? Maybe. But probably not.

I always appreciate the dialogue Toro, we simply disagree! Silver does more than just report the polls, he weights them according to his own "gut" feelings and other factors - and puts out an opinion. He's been the sole source of leftist comfort these last 2-3 weeks as Romney has surged to the lead. I think after tomorrow he will be forever enshrined as a living breathing example of "confirmation bias".

As for the polls - not all of them are wrong, just most of them. The only reliable pollsters are Rasmussen and Gallup - and they are being very conservative in their turnout models. Most of the media and various college polls are assuming that Obama will replicate the D+7 turnout advantage that they enjoyed in 2008. Some have D+11 or even higher!! In my opinion, there is no possible way that D's are going to have a 7pt advantage in turnout- they will be lucky to match the Republicans. The electorate has changed. Obama has a "RECORD" now. He's not the blank canvas he was in 2008...

Let me go out on a limb here - Romney is going to kick Obama's skinny ass in this election like it was the first debate!

What do you think happened to all the people who were upset about Obamacare? What happened to all those people who voted in 2010? Does anyone really believe that those Tea party type Fiscal Conservatives are going to stay home? No...they won't.

What about those college students, ideologues, and welfare mothers that support Obama? Will a shiny new "Obama phone" be enough for them? Will graduating from college with a huge debt and no job prospects land Obama More or Less support from college students than he enjoyed in '08?



I believe today is going to be a bloodbath for Obama. He will lose Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin, Florida, Virginia, Colorado, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. Romney might pick off Michigan and Minnesota to boot!

The Lame-stream media and pollsters already have their spin sheets ready to explain why they were so wrong.........yet still right!!

Where did you read that he goes on his gut?

I like Intrade better but I respect his work.

My guess is that conservatives are finding any reason why they aren't losing. Conservatives might be right but this seems highly emotional.

I didn't read it, I watched him on TV. He's a nice young man. He likes to gamble.

 

[Political Junky]

Mitt has a defeated look about him. It just seems like he is not confident at all, hope that look is genuine.

If there is anything genuine about Willard.

 

[The Rabbi]

Mitt has a defeated look about him. It just seems like he is not confident at all, hope that look is genuine.

If there is anything genuine about Willard.

Yeah, right. Defeated.

As opposed to Obama:

 

[Zander]

He has never used "gut" feeling, and has never injected his opinion.

His methodology is the same model he used for a poker prediction program he used to amass $300k in online poker. When the government started restricting and making illegal a lot of these online parlours, he switched to political predictions.

All data, no emotion.

yeah sure..... I watched him explain his "model" on TV. He explained how he uses his "gut" to weigh each poll - just like he uses his "gut" in Poker.

Link?

I call bullshit.

Good for you! Silver was on a TV show explaining what he does a while back. It was interesting. He's a really nice guy that likes to gamble. I don't care if your believe me or not.

Here is what he says about how he weights polls at his NY Times blog:

"a combination of freshness, sample size, past accuracy, and methodological standards".

I see plenty of room for human factors in that explanation.

Bottom line- He's a gambler. If he's right- he'll make a bloody FORTUNE. If he's wrong, he'll make a tiny little less. He can't walk away from the pot odds...he wins either way.

 

[Dot Com]

...bump

 

[candycorn]

3 reason Nate is full of shit

1) Independents will decide this election. In the final CNN poll of the campaign, Romney crushes Obama by 22 points among Independents. In every poll leading up to this election Mitt is WAY ahead with Independents. But this time it's different?

2) The Economy. It sucks. But this time is different?

3) Voter enthusiasm. Think 2010 midterms. Does anyone really think the GOP is going to stay home today? The Tea Party is dead? This time it's different?

What I wrote has nothing to do with Silver. He's merely reporting the polls. Basically, what you're saying is that all the polls are wrong, including Ras who now has Obama leading in swing states.

Are all the polls wrong? Maybe. But probably not.

When the polls seem to have a built in bias that ASSUMES that more Dims (by a hefty margin) will be thronging to the polls than GOP voters, there certainly IS a reason to doubt the polls.

And Natey merely recapitulates the "findings" of such polls. GiGo.

There is no reason to give either much credence.

IF, as I am still assuming, the Dims have a noticeably lower overall rate of "turnout" than they had in 2008, then the illusory Obama lead "predicted" by the polls will dissipate. THEN, assuming that the Independents ARE actually leaning (fairly decisively) toward, Mitt, the outcome even in the "swing" states is likely to be decidedly in Mitt's favor.

Natey can be rationally ignored since he isn't saying ANYTHING that isn't determined by the polls themselves.

What does matter is how accurate or inaccurate the polls have been (and may still be as the voters go to the real polling booths). There have been MANY good reasons to conclude that the professional polling done in the lead up to the actual vote has been inaccurate. The pollsters COULD have made some corrections (and may made done some belated minor efforts along those lines) as the flaws got exposed and analyzed. That they chose not to do so is a reflection of where they were headed.

I have a question.

You call Obama "The One".
Will you now call Romney "The Zero"?