More economic good news, unemployment rate drops to 8.6%

[Full-Auto]

Wait a second - you provided a link to government figures in order to demonstrate that your industry is fairing poorly...Yet you also claim the figures are a lie?

How convenient.

Explain the accuracy of a survey............. Take your time......................

What, specifically, would you like me to explain? The household survey isn't a random Rasmussen poll using random digit dialing to reach 800 people.

No it uses a person making the calls.

Point?

 

[8537]

Explain the accuracy of a survey............. Take your time......................

What, specifically, would you like me to explain? The household survey isn't a random Rasmussen poll using random digit dialing to reach 800 people.

No it uses a person making the calls.

Point?

The point is that a properly-structured monthly survey of 60,000 people has a much smaller confidence interval than your average political poll.

 

[pinqy]

Explain the accuracy of a survey............. Take your time......................

What, specifically, would you like me to explain? The household survey isn't a random Rasmussen poll using random digit dialing to reach 800 people.

No it uses a person making the calls.

Point?

Actually it's a lot of people. I can't remember which call center Census uses for the CPS but there's a good number of people at each one.

What's your point?

 

[Full-Auto]

What, specifically, would you like me to explain? The household survey isn't a random Rasmussen poll using random digit dialing to reach 800 people.

No it uses a person making the calls.

Point?

The point is that a properly-structured monthly survey of 60,000 people has a much smaller confidence interval than your average political poll.

smaller confidence

Go on. That is the point of debate.

 

[8537]

No it uses a person making the calls.

Point?

The point is that a properly-structured monthly survey of 60,000 people has a much smaller confidence interval than your average political poll.

smaller confidence

Go on. That is the point of debate.

No, not smaller confidence. Greater confidence. Smaller confidence interval. Smaller standard error. Less expected deviation from the mean.

 

[Full-Auto]

The point is that a properly-structured monthly survey of 60,000 people has a much smaller confidence interval than your average political poll.

smaller confidence

Go on. That is the point of debate.

No, not smaller confidence. Greater confidence. Smaller confidence interval. Smaller standard error.

Weve seen revision in the hundreds of thousands.

Current revisions and excuses have almost 3 million less being counted then just a few years ago.

Have you figured out yet the problem with the accuracy?

 

[8537]

smaller confidence

Go on. That is the point of debate.

No, not smaller confidence. Greater confidence. Smaller confidence interval. Smaller standard error.

Weve seen revision in the hundreds of thousands.

We've seen revisions in the hundreds of thousands? Can you show us those?

Have you figured out yet the problem with the accuracy?

There is no problem with the accuracy. All of the standard errors and confidence intervals are included in the data. I don't expect people who think "smaller confidence interval" equates to "smaller confidence" to understand it.

 

[pinqy]

smaller confidence

Go on. That is the point of debate.

No, not smaller confidence. Greater confidence. Smaller confidence interval. Smaller standard error.

Weve seen revision in the hundreds of thousands.

Revisions to UI claims and the Current Employment Survey are due to late or incomplete reporting. That's not an issue with the methodology.

Current revisions and excuses have almost 3 million less being counted then just a few years ago.

Please show your work.

 

[bigrebnc1775]

Huh? Those are government numbers. Why are you suddenly using "cooked" numbers from the government to make your point? after all, they lie!

right?

amiright?

Because I know my industry if the government said the numbers were high then they are much higher. I know those numbers are not true because I know how weak construction is in my state.

Wait a second - you provided a link to government figures in order to demonstrate that your industry is fairing poorly...Yet you also claim the figures are a lie?

How convenient.

As I explained the numbers are much higher than reported. I may have used a government source but tack on higher numbers to that source if you want to see the true numbers.

 

[Full-Auto]

No, not smaller confidence. Greater confidence. Smaller confidence interval. Smaller standard error.

Weve seen revision in the hundreds of thousands.

We've seen revisions in the hundreds of thousands? Can you show us those?

Have you figured out yet the problem with the accuracy?

There is no problem with the accuracy. All of the standard errors and confidence intervals are included in the data. I don't expect people who think "smaller confidence interval" equates to "smaller confidence" to understand it.

No problem with accuracy. Then there would be no need for revisions.

 

[bigrebnc1775]

Weve seen revision in the hundreds of thousands.

We've seen revisions in the hundreds of thousands? Can you show us those?

Have you figured out yet the problem with the accuracy?

There is no problem with the accuracy. All of the standard errors and confidence intervals are included in the data. I don't expect people who think "smaller confidence interval" equates to "smaller confidence" to understand it.

No problem with accuracy. Then there would be no need for revisions.

no they wouldn't be any need for any revisions if they were correct in the first place.

 

[Full-Auto]

Wait a second - you provided a link to government figures in order to demonstrate that your industry is fairing poorly...Yet you also claim the figures are a lie?

How convenient.

Explain the accuracy of a survey............. Take your time......................

Don't need any time. Accuracy of the Unemployment rate: +-0.2 percentage points
Accuracy of Unemployment Level: +-2.4%
Accuracy of non farm pay roll jobs: +- 0.33%
Accuracy of bigrebnc's opinion: +-80%

Margin of error in a survey is not the same as lying.

I didnt claim it was the same as lying. I just said it isnt accurate.

How do you intend to prove your accuracy percentages?

 

[pinqy]

There is no problem with the accuracy. All of the standard errors and confidence intervals are included in the data.

Actually, they're not....you have to do it yourself. The formulas for calculating CPS standard errors and confidence levels is HERE and for CES HERE

 

[pinqy]

Explain the accuracy of a survey............. Take your time......................

Don't need any time. Accuracy of the Unemployment rate: +-0.2 percentage points
Accuracy of Unemployment Level: +-2.4%
Accuracy of non farm pay roll jobs: +- 0.33%
Accuracy of bigrebnc's opinion: +-80%

Margin of error in a survey is not the same as lying.

I didnt claim it was the same as lying. I just said it isnt accurate.

How do you intend to prove your accuracy percentages?

Well, bigreb's I made up.
But the others, go to the links with the formulas from my last post and do the math yourself. I was using 90% confidence (+-1.645SE)

 

[8537]

Because I know my industry if the government said the numbers were high then they are much higher. I know those numbers are not true because I know how weak construction is in my state.

Wait a second - you provided a link to government figures in order to demonstrate that your industry is fairing poorly...Yet you also claim the figures are a lie?

How convenient.

As I explained the numbers are much higher than reported. I may have used a government source but tack on higher numbers to that source if you want to see the true numbers.

I see, and you know the numbers are much higher than reported because your survey of a few guys in the bar is much more statistically rigorous than a monthly 60,000 person survey.

That makes good sense.

 

[bigrebnc1775]

Explain the accuracy of a survey............. Take your time......................

Don't need any time. Accuracy of the Unemployment rate: +-0.2 percentage points
Accuracy of Unemployment Level: +-2.4%
Accuracy of non farm pay roll jobs: +- 0.33%
Accuracy of bigrebnc's opinion: +-80%

Margin of error in a survey is not the same as lying.

I didnt claim it was the same as lying. I just said it isnt accurate.

How do you intend to prove your accuracy percentages?

Would the government intentionally release false numbers?

 

[8537]

Weve seen revision in the hundreds of thousands.

We've seen revisions in the hundreds of thousands? Can you show us those?

Have you figured out yet the problem with the accuracy?

There is no problem with the accuracy. All of the standard errors and confidence intervals are included in the data. I don't expect people who think "smaller confidence interval" equates to "smaller confidence" to understand it.

No problem with accuracy. Then there would be no need for revisions.

Oh bejeebers. Revisions aren't related to an accuracy problem. They are related to incomplete data.

You should quit" laughing your ass off" and do a bit of cursory research.

 

[Full-Auto]

Don't need any time. Accuracy of the Unemployment rate: +-0.2 percentage points
Accuracy of Unemployment Level: +-2.4%
Accuracy of non farm pay roll jobs: +- 0.33%
Accuracy of bigrebnc's opinion: +-80%

Margin of error in a survey is not the same as lying.

I didnt claim it was the same as lying. I just said it isnt accurate.

How do you intend to prove your accuracy percentages?

Well, bigreb's I made up.
But the others, go to the links with the formulas from my last post and do the math yourself. I was using 90% confidence (+-1.645SE)

So we very well could have an 11 percent unemployment rate. And we still drop people from the count even though no one talked to them.

This accuracy is overwelming. Same guys that calced the result of the stim? 5 to 25 million

 

[8537]

There is no problem with the accuracy. All of the standard errors and confidence intervals are included in the data.

Actually, they're not....you have to do it yourself. The formulas for calculating CPS standard errors and confidence levels is HERE and for CES HERE

Thanks, Pinqy.

 

[8537]

I didnt claim it was the same as lying. I just said it isnt accurate.

How do you intend to prove your accuracy percentages?

Well, bigreb's I made up.
But the others, go to the links with the formulas from my last post and do the math yourself. I was using 90% confidence (+-1.645SE)

So we very well could have an 11 percent unemployment rate.

Oh gawd. Please stop. Within the 90% confidence interval, we could "very well" have an unemployment rate of 8.4% or 8.8%.