MIT's global warming prediction

[CrusaderFrank]

"...we redistribute de facto the world's wealth by climate policy." -- IPCC

 

[Chris]

According to Wiki, Earth atmosphere is 5 * 10^18 kg or about 5 *10 ^15 tons

First, you say we're adding "1,000 billion tons" as if that's some large number, when all it works out to is another 200PPM increase in CO2.

Is that finally your hypothesis? A 200PPM increase in CO2 will cause a 3-7 degree increase in temperature?

Does atmospheric CO2 cause the earth to retain heat?

Does it? Show us in a lab how this works, Chris.

Those are YOUR numbers

I'm calling bullshit on it, Warmers have the burden of proof

Does atmospheric CO2 cause the earth to retain heat?

 

[Chris]

"...we redistribute de facto the world's wealth by climate policy." -- IPCC

The world's wealth has already been redistributed, Frank.

 

[elvis]

How does that affect climate? how would changing that make temperatures go down? if we took away all of Bill Gates' cash, would that make the temperature go down 1 degree. How about the prince of wales guy. He owns the ground rent in half of west london. We redistribute his wealth, does that make the temperature go down?

No, but it makes chris and the rest of his jealous cronies happy that someone has less then them. It is all about class and wealth envy. The warmists aren't smart enough to get rich the proper way so they have to steal it from everyone else.

Personal attacks are pretty lame. But it's all you have.

So sad.

AWWW.. Did westwall hurt your wittle feewings, you wittle cum gargler?

 

[Chris]

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SeYfl45X1wo]YouTube - ‪CO2 experiment‬‏[/ame]

 

[daveman]

The study uses the MIT Integrated Global Systems Model, a detailed computer simulation of global economic activity and climate processes that has been developed and refined by the Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change since the early 1990s.

The question is no longer whether global warming is upon us … but how we can rise to its challenge.

MIT’s Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change is a world leader in this effort. Our many activities cohere around one strategy: science and policy have to work together.​

They had their minds made up going in. No surprise their models arrived at the predetermined conclusion.

 

[daveman]

I really feel sorry for you Frank.

Still not seeing a Theory from your side, Chris.

What is it?

Frank it's been posted many times, but you continue to pretend it doesn't exist.

CO2 causes the earth to retain heat. This was proven experimentally in 1859.

No, what was proven experimentally was that CO2 heats up a closed container.

I think you'll find, if you go outside and look up, that the Earth is not a closed container.

 

[Big Fitz]

The most comprehensive modeling yet carried out on the likelihood of how much hotter the Earth's climate will get in this century shows that without rapid and massive action, the problem will be about twice as severe as previously estimated six years ago - and could be even worse than that.

The study uses the MIT Integrated Global Systems Model, a detailed computer simulation of global economic activity and climate processes that has been developed and refined by the Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change since the early 1990s. The new research involved 400 runs of the model with each run using slight variations in input parameters, selected so that each run has about an equal probability of being correct based on present observations and knowledge. Other research groups have estimated the probabilities of various outcomes, based on variations in the physical response of the climate system itself. But the MIT model is the only one that interactively includes detailed treatment of possible changes in human activities as well - such as the degree of economic growth, with its associated energy use, in different countries.

Study co-author Ronald Prinn, the co-director of the Joint Program and director of MIT's Center for Global Change Science, says that, regarding global warming, it is important "to base our opinions and policies on the peer-reviewed science," he says. And in the peer-reviewed literature, the MIT model, unlike any other, looks in great detail at the effects of economic activity coupled with the effects of atmospheric, oceanic and biological systems. "In that sense, our work is unique," he says.

The new projections, published this month in the American Meteorological Society's Journal of Climate, indicate a median probability of surface warming of 5.2 degrees Celsius by 2100, with a 90% probability range of 3.5 to 7.4 degrees. This can be compared to a median projected increase in the 2003 study of just 2.4 degrees. The difference is caused by several factors rather than any single big change. Among these are improved economic modeling and newer economic data showing less chance of low emissions than had been projected in the earlier scenarios. Other changes include accounting for the past masking of underlying warming by the cooling induced by 20th century volcanoes, and for emissions of soot, which can add to the warming effect. In addition, measurements of deep ocean temperature rises, which enable estimates of how fast heat and carbon dioxide are removed from the atmosphere and transferred to the ocean depths, imply lower transfer rates than previously estimated.

Climate change odds much worse than thought

Can anyone name a SINGLE prediction from 20 plus years ago that turned out correct about the weather?

I sure can't even conceive of one.

 

[mike beev]

Instead of models, lets look at the physical universe: melting ice caps both North and South, 87% of all glaciers are retreating, record high temps far outnumber record low temps, flora and fauna moving poleward at about 10 K per decade, extreme weather events, and rising sea levels. None of these events are easy to hide or falsely create; the planet is showing us what is happening.

 

[Big Fitz]

Instead of models, lets look at the physical universe: melting ice caps both North and South, 87% of all glaciers are retreating, record high temps far outnumber record low temps, flora and fauna moving poleward at about 10 K per decade, extreme weather events, and rising sea levels. None of these events are easy to hide or falsely create; the planet is showing us what is happening.

And no way to unequivocally link it to man's activity. Only theorize.

 

[daveman]

Instead of models, lets look at the physical universe: melting ice caps both North and South, 87% of all glaciers are retreating, record high temps far outnumber record low temps, flora and fauna moving poleward at about 10 K per decade, extreme weather events, and rising sea levels. None of these events are easy to hide or falsely create; the planet is showing us what is happening.

The weather's not getting worse.

The Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project - Compo - 2011 - Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society - Wiley Online Library

Abstract
The Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) project is an international effort to produce a comprehensive global atmospheric circulation dataset spanning the twentieth century, assimilating only surface pressure reports and using observed monthly sea-surface temperature and sea-ice distributions as boundary conditions. It is chiefly motivated by a need to provide an observational dataset with quantified uncertainties for validations of climate model simulations of the twentieth century on all time-scales, with emphasis on the statistics of daily weather. It uses an Ensemble Kalman Filter data assimilation method with background ‘first guess’ fields supplied by an ensemble of forecasts from a global numerical weather prediction model. This directly yields a global analysis every 6 hours as the most likely state of the atmosphere, and also an uncertainty estimate of that analysis.

The 20CR dataset provides the first estimates of global tropospheric variability, and of the dataset's time-varying quality, from 1871 to the present at 6-hourly temporal and 2° spatial resolutions. Intercomparisons with independent radiosonde data indicate that the reanalyses are generally of high quality. The quality in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere throughout the century is similar to that of current three-day operational NWP forecasts. Intercomparisons over the second half-century of these surface-based reanalyses with other reanalyses that also make use of upper-air and satellite data are equally encouraging.

It is anticipated that the 20CR dataset will be a valuable resource to the climate research community for both model validations and diagnostic studies. Some surprising results are already evident. For instance, the long-term trends of indices representing the North Atlantic Oscillation, the tropical Pacific Walker Circulation, and the Pacific–North American pattern are weak or non-existent over the full period of record. The long-term trends of zonally averaged precipitation minus evaporation also differ in character from those in climate model simulations of the twentieth century. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society and Crown Copyright.​

 

[Chris]

Instead of models, lets look at the physical universe: melting ice caps both North and South, 87% of all glaciers are retreating, record high temps far outnumber record low temps, flora and fauna moving poleward at about 10 K per decade, extreme weather events, and rising sea levels. None of these events are easy to hide or falsely create; the planet is showing us what is happening.

Those are facts.

These guys aren't interested in facts.

But you are right, it is upon us. Just ask the Russians.

 

[Big Fitz]

"...we redistribute de facto the world's wealth by climate policy." -- IPCC

From our "Ohhhh SNAP!" Office.

 

[daveman]

Instead of models, lets look at the physical universe: melting ice caps both North and South, 87% of all glaciers are retreating, record high temps far outnumber record low temps, flora and fauna moving poleward at about 10 K per decade, extreme weather events, and rising sea levels. None of these events are easy to hide or falsely create; the planet is showing us what is happening.

Those are facts.

These guys aren't interested in facts.

But you are right, it is upon us. Just ask the Russians.

I agree, if by "facts" you mean "AGW junk science".

 

[westwall]

How does that affect climate? how would changing that make temperatures go down? if we took away all of Bill Gates' cash, would that make the temperature go down 1 degree. How about the prince of wales guy. He owns the ground rent in half of west london. We redistribute his wealth, does that make the temperature go down?

No, but it makes chris and the rest of his jealous cronies happy that someone has less then them. It is all about class and wealth envy. The warmists aren't smart enough to get rich the proper way so they have to steal it from everyone else.

Personal attacks are pretty lame. But it's all you have.

So sad.

So says the person who resorts to character attacks at the drop of a hat. Or does accusing someone of lying with nothing to back that up not count in your world?

You're the only sad person here.

 

[westwall]

YouTube - ‪CO2 experiment‬‏

An experiment that demonstrats the Ideal Gas Law but not how CO2 is supposed to heat the atmosphere. But once again that's actual science, not this. This is juvenile.

 

[westwall]

Instead of models, lets look at the physical universe: melting ice caps both North and South, 87% of all glaciers are retreating, record high temps far outnumber record low temps, flora and fauna moving poleward at about 10 K per decade, extreme weather events, and rising sea levels. None of these events are easy to hide or falsely create; the planet is showing us what is happening.

Look again. Glaciers are advancing all over the world. The world operates on fantastically long periods of time. In the time you live your entire life the Earth breathes three times. You have no concept of how the planet functions. It takes years for anything to happen. We have seen the temp increases halt and they have stayed constant for ten years and now they are going into decline. That's why there have been record snowstorms the last three winters in a row. You are correct, we can see what is happening. And it's not what the warmists predicted it would be.

 

[Old Rocks]

So MIT thinks that we WILL see 5.2c of warming in 89 fucking years. I don't understand how .2c per decade that we're seeing=5.2c for 89 years. More like 1.8c maximum. I'd put good money on NOT seeing 3c warmer then today by 2100. If I'm alive maybe even a few grand.

We have melted 40% of the North Polar ice cap.

This will continue. When the Arctic heats up it releases methane which is 20 times stronger a greenhouse gas than CO2, so that is a strong feedback effect. Likewise open water absorbs much more heat than ice. These feedback effects will cause the earth to warm even more. We are already seeing the results.

Wrong again Tojo, the ice cap is rebounding from it's all time recorded (well at least since we've actually been looking at it) low in 2007. Three years from now it will be at an all time record high.

Calling you on that, dumb fuck.

 

[mike beev]

We should all hope that the climate change is man caused, as that way it can be controlled. If it is only natural, then we will be the effect, and that has never been successful for a species. By dealing with it, we have little to lose, but by ignoring it, we may lose everything. Besides, someday we will run out of fossil fuels; we won't run out of solar, wind, hydro and tidal. And science may save the species.

 

[elvis]

Based on the pathetic state of computer climate models I am not the least bit worried. Until they can recreate what happened last week they mean nothing and their predictive abilities are laughable.

Actually most of your posts are laughable.

I'll put my money on the boys at MIT over your oil company shill stuff.

pot meet kettle, dipshit.