Michigan's son is ahead!

Don't forget that the city of Detroit is about 83% black. Once you get outside of Detroit, the black population drops way off.

Michigan is Romney's "home" state, so to speak. His dad was Governor of Michigan, and his dad was the President of American Motors.
if romney win mi then it all over and we looking at very big win for gop.

If Romney wins Michigan, Minnesota or Pennsylvania then Obama will need a hella lot of other stuff to go his way. This will be a fun state to watch for that reason. And it'll be a nailbiter for Dems just like Virginia will be for the good guys.
 
Probably getting old, but this is about the sixth election where the Republicans say they are making progress, and they still end up getting called about five minutes after the polls close for the Democrat.

Romney's "let them eat Bankruptcy" position has killed him in Michigan, which he nearly lost to Santorum, for those playing along at home.
 
Last polls, O+11 and O+8 in Minnesota. That's the state Republicans were just bragging they were going to carry.

Several Ohio polls, all in the O+3/4/5 range.

7 Pennsylvania polls, all but one showing Obama comfortably ahead. Therefore, the Republicans cherrypick the single poll that shows a tie, and proclaim their imminent victory there. Someone needs to explain to 'em what an outlier is.

5 Michigan polls, all but one showing Obama comfortably ahead. Therefore, the Republicans cherrypick the single poll that shows a tie, and proclaim their imminent victory there. Someone needs to explain to 'em what an outlier is.

RCP national average at O+0.5.

It's not going to be close, at least in EV.
 
A Michigan pollster has Romney in the lead there!

Republican Nominee Mitt Romney 46.86%
President Barack Obama 46.24%
Another candidate 4.94%
Undecided 1.96%

Romney and Obama in dead heat in latest Michigan poll - Fox 2 News Headlines

iit's the only poll that isn't clearly in the president's favor.

but whatever makes you hacks feel better. :thup:

RCP Avg:

Obama 49.2
Romney 45.4

obama + 3.8

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Michigan: Romney vs. Obama

Baydoun-Foster’s Michigan polling has leaned more toward Romney than other Michigan surveys by several points throughout the final months of the campaign, a review of RCP’s Michigan polling shows.

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/polls/265779-mich-poll-has-romney-up-1
 
A Michigan pollster has Romney in the lead there!

Republican Nominee Mitt Romney 46.86%
President Barack Obama 46.24%
Another candidate 4.94%
Undecided 1.96%

Romney and Obama in dead heat in latest Michigan poll - Fox 2 News Headlines

iit's the only poll that isn't clearly in the president's favor.

but whatever makes you hacks feel better. :thup:

RCP Avg:

Obama 49.2
Romney 45.4

obama + 3.8

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Michigan: Romney vs. Obama

Baydoun-Foster’s Michigan polling has leaned more toward Romney than other Michigan surveys by several points throughout the final months of the campaign, a review of RCP’s Michigan polling shows.

Mich. poll has Romney up 1 point - The Hill's Ballot Box

EVen Real Clear Nonsense's average of legit and hack polls is almost within the margin of error. You should be nervous.
 
Why should we be nervous? The pluses are all on our side, not yours. And we are not the people posting baggadicio post after post.

Reality is that it looks like a victory for the President at two day from the election.
 
EVen Real Clear Nonsense's average of legit and hack polls is almost within the margin of error. You should be nervous.

Since it's the hackier polls that tend to be the Republican-favorable polls, excluding them would make things better for Obama over all the states.

Oh wait. This is just you doing that confirmation-bias thing where you declare any poll you don't like is a hack poll. Never mind.
 
Why shouldn't you believe this poll? Because the polling firm, Foster McCollum White Baydoun, has a likely voter screen that's utterly absurd, as Nate Silver explained a while back:

In Michigan, there are two local polling firms in particular that have shown poor numbers for Mr. Obama. One is ... Foster McCollum White Baydoun, which had Mr. Romney ahead by four points in its last survey.

Foster McCollum White Baydoun actually does survey one state apart from Michigan: it released a poll of Florida last week. In that survey, it showed Mr. Romney ahead by almost 15 points -- perhaps the biggest outlier we’ve seen in any individual poll so far this year.

As I mentioned when that Florida poll came out, this firm anticipates a big decline in participation among groups like younger voters that are ordinarily inclined to support Democratic candidates. The initial news release of the Florida poll appeared to show that the firm anticipated that just 11 percent of Florida voters would be under age 50 -- in contrast to about half the Florida electorate in 2008, according to exit polls. A principal of the firm, Eric Foster, later wrote me to say that the news release had been incomplete, and voters under the age of 50 had actually been weighted to make up 27 percent of the poll instead.

That's still an implausibly large drop-off, in my view, from 2008. It may be because the Foster McCollum White Baydoun likely-voter model looks for voters who, as they described it, participated in "odd year municipal and county elections" -- where turnout is tiny as compared with what it will be on Nov. 6. In any event, this method seems likely to produce extremely Republican-leaning results -- whether applied to Michigan, to Florida or to any other state.

A firm that thinks three-quarters of the electorate will be 50 or older, even in Florida, is not going to get believable results.



No More Mister Nice Blog
 

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