July 22, 2014: Georgia runoff elections results thread

[Statistikhengst]

Runoff-elections for:

nominations for Senate Class 2 Republican

U.S. House District 1 Democratic and Republican

U.S. House District 10 Republican

U.S. House District 11 Republican

Superintendent of Education Democratic and Republican.

SHD 1, 22, 54, 112 - all GOP
SHD 153 - DEM

SSD 8, 9, 16, 27 - all GOP
SSD 22 - DEM


The polls will be open 7 AM to 7 PM local time.


In the Senate runoff (R), it looks like Kingston has the advantage. The Senate runoff is the one that everyone is watching, for this seat is a prime DEM pick-up target for 2014, with Michelle Nunn (D) as the nominee.

Surely there will be lots of polling R vs. D after tonight's runoff, but Nunn is currently leading both potential GOP nominees in latest polling:

RealClearPolitics - Election 2014 - Georgia Senate - Kingston vs. Nunn

RealClearPolitics - Election 2014 - Georgia Senate - Perdue vs. Nunn


Here the results link from the AP.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Nice write-up in Politico about today's runoff election:

Georgia Republican Senate runoff: 5 things to watch - James Hohmann - POLITICO.com

...But polls remain tight — and with fewer than 10 percent of eligible voters expected to show up on a midsummer Tuesday, the outcome is far from certain....

...Two automated polls conducted last week put Kingston up single digits among likely voters. Landmark Communications had Kingston up 7 points, 48 percent to 41 percent, and InsiderAdvantage had him up 5 points, 46-41.

Both candidates have been blistering each other with attack ads, which could suppress turnout even more. Kingston’s closing ad depicted Perdue as a mannequin, calling him a phony conservative. Perdue’s closing, Fred Davis-produced ad accused Kingston of secretly supporting amnesty for illegal immigrants, citing the support he’s received from the pro-immigration-reform Chamber...


...1) Does Kingston run up the score in South Georgia?....

...2) Do Handel’s voters break for Kingston in the Atlanta metro?...

...3) How does turnout for the three House runoffs impact the Senate runoff?...

...Because three sitting House members sought the Senate nomination, there are also runoffs Tuesday for their open seats. It’s fair to expect more votes in these three places than the state’s 11 other House districts, where GOP nominees have already been chosen...

...4) Does Perdue do as well with seniors as he polls?...


...5) Who do voters think offers the better contrast to Nunn?...

Pretty nice analysis. Well written, worth a read.

 

[Nyvin]

Looks like Perdue has it locked up

 

[Bush92]

GOP retains Georgia.

 

[Statistikhengst]

And the results:


Perdue 50.9
Kingston 49.1

Margin: Perdue +1.7

Interesting upset.

 

[Statistikhengst]

GOP retains Georgia.

No. Perdue wins runoff election. Get your facts straight.

 

[TemplarKormac]

And the results:


Perdue 50.9
Kingston 49.1

Margin: Perdue +1.7

Interesting upset.

Okay, so the polls as of now have Perdue and Nunn in a dead heat. Kingston was the preferred candidate for Nunn to run against, however. A quick look at the Metro Atlanta area showed that Perdue won the Metro Area quite decisively.

Counties in the Geographical Metropolitan Atlanta Area

Fulton County:

Perdue by 9.8 points

DeKalb County:

Perdue by 14 points

Cobb County:

Perdue by 7.4 points

Clayton County:

Perdue by 26 points

Gwinnett County:

Perdue by 11 points

Forsyth County:

Perdue by 10.2 points

Caroll County:

Perdue by 16.8 points

Haralson County:

Perdue by 16.4 points

Heard County:

Perdue by 21.6 points

Fayette County:

Perdue by 20 points

Rockdale County:

Perdue by 16.4 points

Walton County:

Perdue by 15.8 points

Barrow County:

Perdue by 16.4 points

Dawson County:

Perdue by 24.4 points

Pickens County:

Perdue by 21.6 points

Cherokee County:

Perdue by 10.7 points

Bartow County:

Perdue by 3.6 points

Jasper County:

Perdue by 22.8 points

Butts County:

Perdue by 30.8 points

Spalding County:

Perdue by 22.4 points

Pike County:

Perdue by 25.2 points

Lamar County:

Perdue by 25.6 points

Meriwether County:

Perdue by 21 points

Georgia Primary Runoff Election Results 2014: Live Senate Map by County , Midterm Races - POLITICO

 

[Statistikhengst]

And the results:


Perdue 50.9
Kingston 49.1

Margin: Perdue +1.7

Interesting upset.

Okay, so the polls as of now have Perdue and Nunn in a dead heat. Kingston was the preferred candidate for Nunn to run against, however. A quick look at the Metro Atlanta area showed that Perdue won the Metro Area quite decisively.

Counties in the Geographical Metropolitan Atlanta Area

Fulton County:

Perdue by 9.8 points

DeKalb County:

Perdue by 14 points

Cobb County:

Perdue by 7.4 points

Clayton County:

Perdue by 26 points

Gwinnett County:

Perdue by 11 points

Forsyth County:

Perdue by 10.2 points

Caroll County:

Perdue by 16.8 points

Haralson County:

Perdue by 16.4 points

Heard County:

Perdue by 21.6 points

Fayette County:

Perdue by 20 points

Rockdale County:

Perdue by 16.4 points

Walton County:

Perdue by 15.8 points

Barrow County:

Perdue by 16.4 points

Dawson County:

Perdue by 24.4 points

Pickens County:

Perdue by 21.6 points

Cherokee County:

Perdue by 10.7 points

Bartow County:

Perdue by 3.6 points

Jasper County:

Perdue by 22.8 points

Butts County:

Perdue by 30.8 points

Spalding County:

Perdue by 22.4 points

Pike County:

Perdue by 25.2 points

Lamar County:

Perdue by 25.6 points

Meriwether County:

Perdue by 21 points

Georgia Primary Runoff Election Results 2014: Live Senate Map by County , Midterm Races - POLITICO

The large bolded: among Republican voters only. It was a closed runoff. Exactly what point are you trying to make?

Actually, Nunn is also ahead of Perdue, it's not a dead heat.

 

[TemplarKormac]

What was that?

RealClearPolitics - 2014 Georgia Senate Race

I was making the point that winning metro voters was key to a Perdue win. Kingston won all the rural voters, Perdue won the city voters.

Pining for Nunn again, too, I see.

 

[BreezeWood]

EarthLink - Political News

Nunn's TV ads have so far focused on introducing her to voters and emphasizing her experience as CEO of the large volunteer organization Points of Light, which was founded by former President George H.W. Bush. Nunn has looked to lay blame with both parties for gridlock in Washington.

...................


"David Perdue has spent his career tearing apart companies and communities by slashing thousands of jobs in Georgia and across the country and outsourcing jobs to Asia, while walking away with millions for himself," said Guy Cecil, head of the Democrats' national Senate campaign office.

Purdue will be hard to defeat in Geogia however Nunn is the candidate that may pull it off.

.

 

[Statistikhengst]

EarthLink - Political News

Nunn's TV ads have so far focused on introducing her to voters and emphasizing her experience as CEO of the large volunteer organization Points of Light, which was founded by former President George H.W. Bush. Nunn has looked to lay blame with both parties for gridlock in Washington.

...................


"David Perdue has spent his career tearing apart companies and communities by slashing thousands of jobs in Georgia and across the country and outsourcing jobs to Asia, while walking away with millions for himself," said Guy Cecil, head of the Democrats' national Senate campaign office.

Purdue will be hard to defeat in Geogia however Nunn is the candidate that may pull it off.

.

Pollsters, Pundits and PolySci people in the know have been saying for months now that the two likely marquee races of 2014 will be the

KY Senatorial

-and-

GA Senatorial


and lo and behold, it sure looks like it.

 

[Statistikhengst]

What was that?

RealClearPolitics - 2014 Georgia Senate Race

I was making the point that winning metro voters was key to a Perdue win. Kingston won all the rural voters, Perdue won the city voters.

Pining for Nunn again, too, I see.

Then why did you even mention Nunn's name in that posting? She had absolutely nothing to do with the runoff yesterday.

 

[TemplarKormac]

What was that?

RealClearPolitics - 2014 Georgia Senate Race

I was making the point that winning metro voters was key to a Perdue win. Kingston won all the rural voters, Perdue won the city voters.

Pining for Nunn again, too, I see.

Then why did you even mention Nunn's name in that posting? She had absolutely nothing to do with the runoff yesterday.

Nunn is who the winner would be facing, Stat. She has plenty to do with the discussion. Now the discussion turns to who has a better chance of winning the seat, not the primary.

 

[Statistikhengst]

What was that?

RealClearPolitics - 2014 Georgia Senate Race

I was making the point that winning metro voters was key to a Perdue win. Kingston won all the rural voters, Perdue won the city voters.

Pining for Nunn again, too, I see.

Then why did you even mention Nunn's name in that posting? She had absolutely nothing to do with the runoff yesterday.

Nunn is who the winner would be facing, Stat. She has plenty to do with the discussion. Now the discussion turns to who has a better chance of winning the seat, not the primary.

So, the fact that Perdue did so well in all those counties, but only in the Republican vote, has something to do with Michelle Nunn? Really?

 

[Katzndogz]

The public is in an anti incumbent mood. If the public sees Nunn as just another dynastic political family she will lose.

 

[Statistikhengst]

The public is in an anti incumbent mood. If the public sees Nunn as just another dynastic political family she will lose.

Do you have any idea how stupid that sounds and looks from you?

Michelle Nunn is NOT an incumbent. A dynastic family does not make for an incumbent.

 

[Nyvin]

GOP retains Georgia.

I'd say it's way too earlier to tell, Nunn has polled ahead of Purdue.

 

[Hoosier4Liberty]

GOP retains Georgia.

I'd say it's way too earlier to tell, Nunn has polled ahead of Purdue.

Remember, Nunn needs to get to 50% on election day. Otherwise, it goes to a runoff, which like in 2008, means a big Democratic dropoff.

I say this is likely Republican at this point, especially with the leaked memo.

If Democrats want to pick up a Republican seat, they should try for Kentucky instead, which I would rate as Tossup/Tilt-R.

 

[FuzzyCat]

And "I" as a southern, rural voter in Ga. think you are both forgetting something.
Many people "crossed over" to vote Republican in order to get Kingston out of there!
Also, the name Purdue is associated with a former (not all that popular in many areas) Ga. governor.

And also remember that all those "polls" are only the results of folks who will actually talk to poll takers....many of us won't. Nor will we do telephone surveys or internet surveys.

So IMHO, it's still up in the air and will depend on how many voters actually turn out!

 

[Missourian]

This killed Nunn's chances of winning...a blunder of her campaigns own making:

Michelle Nunn can come across as a “lightweight,” “too liberal,” not a “real Georgian.” While she served as CEO for the Points of Light Foundation, the organization gave grants to “inmates” and “terrorists.” And her Senate campaign must feature images of her and her family “in rural settings with rural-oriented imagery” because the Atlanta-based candidate will struggle to connect with rural voters.

These may sound like attacks from the Senate candidate’s Republican rival, but in fact, those are a few of the concerns expressed in her own campaign plan, which sources say was posted online briefly in December and appears to have been drafted earlier that month.

Michelle Nunn?s Campaign Plan | National Review Online

​

There's a lot more at the link. Especially love this one...

Her strategists are optimistic that the media won’t prove much of an obstacle. They write that at some point her opponent, who at the time the document was written had yet to be determined, will be “shoveling research” against her. But they say they anticipate they will often have “fair warning” about negative news stories and can work to “kill or muddy” them.​