Jobs Data Dim Recovery Hopes - unemployment ticks up to 9.2%

Discussion in 'Economy' started by Trajan, Jul 8, 2011.

  1. Trajan
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    Trajan conscientia mille testes

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    there doesn't appear to be any good news here. Just another "bump in the road" ?





    Nonfarm payrolls rose 18,000 last month, far fewer than expected, as small gains in the private sector were just enough to outweigh continued government-job losses, the Labor Department said Friday in its survey of employers.

    Payrolls data for the previous two months were revised down by a total 44,000 to show increases of only 25,000 jobs in May and 217,000 in April.

    snip-

    The jobless rate, which is obtained from a separate household survey, increased for the third straight month to 9.2% in June from 9.1% in May. It was the highest level since December 2010. There are 14.1 million Americans who would like to work but can't get a job.

    Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had forecast payrolls would rise by 125,000 and the jobless rate would remain steady at 9.1%.

    The choppy two-year-old recovery is proving to be one of the worst since the 1930s. It has been too slow to make up for all the jobs lost after the financial crisis of 2008 and 2009. With little scope left for policy to help, President Barack Obama is likely to confront the highest unemployment rate of any postwar incumbent when he seeks re-election in the fall of 2012.

    Friday's report showed private-sector employers, which account for about 70% of the work force, added 57,000 jobs in June, down from 73,000 in May. The weakness was broad-based.

    Manufacturing employment remained weak, adding 6,000 jobs. Economists were expecting a rebound as disruptions to manufacturing production stemming from Japan's earthquake should be easing. Employment in the battered construction sector was broadly unchanged. The housing sector remains a big drag on the economy.

    snip-

    Employment in professional and business services, which had shown strong gains in previous months, rose by 12,000.

    Government employment fell by 39,000, the eighth drop in a row, following declines in all levels of government struggling to close budget gaps.

    more at-

    Jobs Data Dim Recovery Hopes - WSJ.com
     
  2. Wiseacre
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    Wiseacre Retired USAF Chief Supporting Member

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    Think about this, the amount of overtime hours usually goes up when the economy is picking up when employers try to make do satisfying demand with the existing employees they have. When that sn't enough, then they start hiring more people. But in June the overtime hours number dropped, which signifies we ain't moving in the right direction.

    The other thing is temporary hires, employers will also hire temps before they begin to hire permanent employees. But again in June the temp hires is also down, so it's another sign of economic trouble.

    I just don't know what can be done to turn things around without reversing just about all of Obama's policies. I think we need a fresh approach, what we're doing now ain't working.
     
    Last edited: Jul 8, 2011
  3. American Cowboy
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    American Cowboy BANNED

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    "One way to make sure crime doesn't pay would be to let the government run it." -Ronald Reagan
     
  4. Trajan
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    Trajan conscientia mille testes

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    interesting note wiseacre.......

    yes well good luck. as they see it its all still bushs fault. when you are in denial you cannot begin to formulate a cogent response;)
     
  5. iamwhatiseem
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    iamwhatiseem Gold Member

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    ADP reported fewest number of people hired since September 2010.
    Only the financial institutions are doing well...good to be a banker.
     
  6. Trajan
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    Trajan conscientia mille testes

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    you sure, I heard they are dumping folks, or maybe it was wall street...:eusa_eh:
     
  7. iamwhatiseem
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    iamwhatiseem Gold Member

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    Sorry...meant investment banker.
    Hell...the Dow is now highest in history except 2007 and one month in 2008. There has never been so much money made in the history of investment since the economy collapsed.
    Never - not ever - has the markets shot up so fast. The government throwing $900,000,000,000 of taxpayer money into the hands of finance has done the financial market wonders.
    Something the Obamanites can't seem to grasp.
     
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  8. Trajan
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    Trajan conscientia mille testes

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    check this, I 'heard' that the banks are being allowed to borrow at 2% from the fed. and are loaning F&F at 3 to 4%...I am to scared to check..have you heard that?
     
  9. Wiseacre
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    Wiseacre Retired USAF Chief Supporting Member

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    FYI, from Cato:

    Banks Are Lending, but to Whom?
    Posted by Mark A. Calabria
    A recurring concern we have heard since the financial crisis erupted is that banks are simply not lending, and that this is holding back economic activity. If only banks would lend, the economy would grow. As usual, the truth is a little more complex.
    Unlike in the Great Depression, and despite about 300 bank failures, the balance sheets and deposits of insured commercial banks and thrifts has been steady, if slowly, expanding throughout the financial crisis and recess. Banks have continued lending during this time; however, they have changed who they are lending to. Over the last two years we have witnessed a massive shift from lending to the private sector to lending to the public.
    The chart below shows banking business lending and bank holdings of U.S. government securities. The chart suggests that the approximately $500 billion increase in bank lending to Uncle Sam came at the expense of a $400 billion decline in lending to private business. If one assumes that bank balance sheets have either been stable or increased slightly, then a loan to the government must off-set a loan otherwise made somewhere else.

    [the chart didn't copy, don't know why]

    While its hard to exactly measure the job impact of this reduced business lending, some estimates have been made on the impact of SBA lending. According to one study, every $41,600 in new small business loans is associated with 1 new job created. While this number should be taken with a grain of salt, it implies that the $400 billion reduction in business lending has cost over 9 million jobs. Of course, one might argue that the half-trillion in lending to the govt has created or “saved” some jobs. Accepting the difficulty of coming up with a reliable estimate, I think its fair to say that on net a few million jobs have been lost due to this shift of lending from the private to the public sector.
    Also of interest is that since the financial crisis, and despite the failures of Fannie and Freddie, commercial banks and thrifts have increased their holdings of Fannie/Freddie/Ginnie securities by over $300 billion.
    Textbook economics usually teaches that government crowding out of private investment only really occurs when we are near full-employment. Yet looking at the balance sheets of our commercial banks and thrifts, would suggest that U.S. Treasuries and Agency securities have crowded out significant lending that would otherwise go to the private sector. But this should come as no surprise, since banks can borrow for close to zero and invest risk-free in government debt, earning a nice spread of 3 to 4 percentage points.
    Mark A. Calabria • December 16, 2010 @ 3:14 pm

    Banks Are Lending, but to Whom? | Cato @ Liberty
     
  10. iamwhatiseem
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    iamwhatiseem Gold Member

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    You bet...look at the enormous profits European banks have made loaning Greece money at engorged rates...then when they began running into trouble - no problem! In comes the IMF, other Euro governments and naturally Uncle Sam to ensure they lose no profits. The U.S. government has no pause when it comes to giving away our tax dollars.
    In fact - France is strongly advocating Euro banks to start loaning to the Greek government again - round two!
     

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