'Huge Uncertainty' In Afghanistan

[longknife]

-- An Interview With Max Boot, Jeane J. Kirkpatrick, Council On Foreign Relations

President Obama has withdrawn the last of the so-called 30,000 "surge troops" he sent to Afghanistan in 2009 and 2010, but Max Boot, a veteran military analyst for CFR, says there are "huge uncertainties about the outcome" in the country. He says that "we certainly do not have the sense of victory in sight that we saw in Iraq when the surge troops were pulled out of there." Even though President Obama campaigned in 2008 on a platform of bolstering forces in Afghanistan, "he has done very little to rally public support for the war effort, again because I think he's fundamentally ambivalent about the war himself," Boot says. He also says there are significant questions about long-term U.S. commitment "because neither President Obama nor [Republican presidential nominee] Governor Mitt Romney is eager to talk about Afghanistan."

Read more ....'Huge Uncertainty' in Afghanistan - Council on Foreign Relations

My Comment: A culture of corruption, tribalism, religious sectarianism coupled with poverty and a economy that is still solely based on foreign aid and drugs has .... after 11 years .... still the status quo in Afghanistan. But on the bright side .... millions of children and young adults now know how to read, and many Afghans have now had a glimpse that life can be better than what they have been living with for the past thousand plus years.

I fear that all I can see is the same fate there as is happening in Iraq.

 

[waltky]

Terrorism in Afghanistan increasing...

Karzai: Terrorism in Afghanistan 'Has Not Gone Away. It Has Increased'
October 1, 2012 - "The reason for the NATO and American intervention in Afghanistan was terrorism," Afghan President Hamid Karzai told the CBS program "60 Minutes" in a report that aired on Sunday. But, he added, "Terrorism has not gone away. It has increased."

Karzai listed a number of foreign groups that he says are sending fighters to his country: "Name them al Qaeda, name them Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, name them Haqqani, name them Taliban, whatever. They're still there. And they have the ability to continue 10 years on to come and hurt us and kill your troops and kill our troops, kill our civilians. We must then question how come they've returned?" Karzai told Logan, "Something must have gone wrong" for the foreign troops to have returned.

Gen. John Allen, the top U.S. commander in Afghanistan, agreed with Karzai that "al Qaeda has come back." But Allen told "60 Minutes" that al Qaeda is "not here in large numbers. But al Qaeda doesn't have to be anywhere in large numbers." "Al Qaeda has significance beyond its numbers, frankly," Allen continued. "And so for us, our 24-hour-a-day objective is to seek out those al Qaeda cells. And, as we seek them out, to target them and eliminate them. And we're doing that 24 hours a day. We do not want al Qaeda to feel as though it can put down roots here. That's the key."

Karzai said he disagrees with Gen. Allen, who has told him that security is much better in Afghanistan -- and it's the government that needs to improve. "The security situation isn't perfect around the country," Gen. Allen said. "But an awful lot of the population of this country is living in an area where there is vastly improved security from where it was just a few years ago." Allen agreed that enemy safe havens inside Pakistan are a major problem for the U.S. "I'm not going to be able to wage war in Pakistan. But this is hard," he said. Gen. Allen said he will "do everything we can to hunt down and kill" every one of the foreign fighters who "come out of those safe havens" to kill U.S. troops in Afghanistan. Allen told Logan that with 27 months to go until the majority of U.S. troops are pulled out of Afghanistan, he expects the fighting to last until the final day.

President Obama does not discuss the war in Afghanistan on the campaign trail, but on Sept. 18, his spokesman Jay Carney said the military "continues to work to understand why there has been a spike" in insider attacks. "And we're working with Afghanistan to take measures to better protect our troops." Carney said Obama's "policy of gradually turning over security lead to Afghan forces continues," and will result in "more American troops coming home and Afghans taking more and greater responsibility for the security of their nation." The increasing number of insider attacks won't affect the 2014 withdrawal deadline that President Obama has set for U.S. troops, Carney said.

Source

See also:

Top U.S. Commander in Afghanistan: We’re Willing to Fight – But ‘Not Willing to Be Murdered'
October 1, 2012 - Gen. John Allen, the top U.S. commander in Afghanistan, says he's "mad as hell" about the increasing number of insider attacks, in which Afghan soldiers and police murder the Americans who are trying to train them.

"You know, we're willing to sacrifice a lot for this campaign. But we're not willing to be murdered for it," Gen. Allen told CBS' "60 Minutes" in a segment that aired on Sunday. Gen. Allen told CBS Correspondent Lara Logan that the insider attacks will continue: "The enemy recognizes this is a vulnerability. You know, in Iraq, the signature weapon system that we hadn't seen before was the IED. We had to adjust to that. Here, I think the signature attack that we're beginning to see the -- is going to be the insider attack." Allen also said "the vast majority” of Afghans are "with us in this." He noted that a number of Afghans have been killed trying to save NATO forces from rogue Afghans.

A Taliban commander -- described as a specialist in suicide bombings who was trained by al Qaeda -- also spoke to "60 Minutes," telling Lara Logan that the Taliban is behind the insider attacks: "These are Taliban attacks," the unnamed man said. "This is part of our new military strategy. We have our people in the Afghan police and the army. And the orders come from the top."

The Taliban representative told CBS that al Qaeda fights are flowing into Afghanistan, helping to make the Taliban more effective in killing NATO troops: "We can't do this without them (al Qaeda)," he said. "They are masters of everything. For example, making IEDs, something we don't know how to do. But they are teaching us. They are also master engineers and good with all weapons. When our weapons break, they are the ones who repair them. We can't do this without them."

On Monday, the day after "60 Minutes" aired the interviews with Gen. Allen and the Taliban representative, a suicide bomber rammed his motorcycle into a patrol of Afghan and international forces in eastern Afghanistan, detonating it -- and killing at least 14 people, including three NATO service members and their translator, officials said. The Taliban claimed responsibility for the blast.

Source

 

[Mad Scientist]

Afghanistan: Where Empires go to Die.

 

[High_Gravity]

The Taliban knew when the troops were coming, how many they were, where they were going to be, and knew when they were leaving. And this was supposed to be successful how? If I were a Taliban I would have just taken a vacation until the extra troops went back home.

 

[waltky]

Uncertainty in Afghanistan...

Afghan Army’s Turnover Threatens U.S. Strategy
October 15, 2012 — The first thing Col. Akbar Stanikzai does when he interviews recruits for the Afghan National Army is take their cellphones.

He checks to see if the ringtones are Taliban campaign tunes, if the screen savers show the white Taliban flag on a black background, or if the phone memory includes any insurgent beheading videos. Often enough they flunk that first test, but that hardly means they will not qualify to join their country’s manpower-hungry military. Now at its biggest size yet, 195,000 soldiers, the Afghan Army is so plagued with desertions and low re-enlistment rates that it has to replace a third of its entire force every year, officials say.

The attrition strikes at the core of America’s exit strategy in Afghanistan: to build an Afghan National Army that can take over the war and allow the United States and NATO forces to withdraw by the end of 2014. The urgency of that deadline has only grown as the pace of the troop pullout has become an issue in the American presidential campaign. The Afghan deserters complain of corruption among their officers, poor food and equipment, indifferent medical care, Taliban intimidation of their families and, probably most troublingly, a lack of belief in the army’s ability to fight the insurgents after the American military withdraws.

On top of that, recruits now undergo tougher vetting because of concerns that enemy infiltration of the Afghan military is contributing to a wave of attacks on international forces. Colonel Stanikzai, a senior official at the army’s National Recruiting Center, is on the front line of that effort; in the six months through September, he and his team of 17 interviewers have rejected 962 applicants, he said. “There are drug traffickers who want to use our units for their business, enemy infiltrators who want to raise problems, jailbirds who can’t find any other job,” he said. During the same period, however, 30,000 applicants were approved. “Recruitment, it’s like a machine,” he said. “If you stopped, it would collapse.”

Despite the challenges, so far the Afghan recruiting process is not only on track, but actually ahead of schedule. Afghanistan’s army reached its full authorized strength in June, three months early, though there are still no units that American trainers consider able to operate entirely without NATO assistance. According to Brig. Gen. Dawlat Waziri, the deputy spokesman for the Afghan Defense Ministry, the Army’s desertion rate is now 7 to 10 percent. Despite substantial pay increases for soldiers who agree to re-enlist, only about 75 percent do, he said. (Recruits commit to three years of service.)

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[High_Gravity]

Why are we still dicking around over there?

 

[Katzndogz]

There is no uncertainty in Afghanistan. They know exactly what they are doing and are quite certain of what they want to do.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

It's certain Obama has handed Afghan Security back over to Al Qaeda and the Taliban

 

[ima]

It's certain that NATO can't take Afghanistan, mainly because the US army blows chunks big time.

 

[Sunni Man]

^^^^^ You are the only one blowing chunks retard.

 

[ima]

^^^^^ You are the only one blowing chunks retard.

Why, because you think that NATO can take Afghanistan? In how many more decades?

Sunni, does it stink of sweaty feet in your mosque, and do all the carpets have drool and snot on them from being kissed fives times a day?

 

[Colin]

^^^^^ You are the only one blowing chunks retard.

Why, because you think that NATO can take Afghanistan? In how many more decades?

Sunni, does it stink of sweaty feet in your mosque, and do all the carpets have drool and snot on them from being kissed fives times a day?

Don't judge other places by the squalid nature of your own bedroom.

 

[Sunni Man]

Actually, the mosque is immaculately cleaned and spotless.

You must be describing your dilapidated house and nasty stained carpet.

 

[idb]

It's certain Obama has handed Afghan Security back over to Al Qaeda and the Taliban

What should he have done?

 

[ima]

Actually, the mosque is immaculately cleaned and spotless.

You must be describing your dilapidated house and nasty stained carpet.

So at your mosque, is there like a big pile of rocks next to a hole in the floor and that's where muslims shit and then use the rocks to wipe your ass as Mohammy described?

 

[ima]

^^^^^ You are the only one blowing chunks retard.

Why, because you think that NATO can take Afghanistan? In how many more decades?

Sunni, does it stink of sweaty feet in your mosque, and do all the carpets have drool and snot on them from being kissed fives times a day?

Don't judge other places by the squalid nature of your own bedroom.

Says the guy who lives in England!!!