task0778
Diamond Member
Ever since Barack Obama swept into the White House on the strength of record turnout, it has been an article of faith among Democrats that the more people who vote, the better the party will fare.
When turnout sagged, during the 2010 and the 2014 midterm elections, Republicans won wave elections. In 2016, fewer people voted than in 2012 and Donald Trump won the presidency, shocking Democrats and turbocharging a more explicit Republican argument that making voting harder would make it easier for the GOP to win elections.
Then turnout jumped again in the Trump years — in Virginia four years ago, in special elections and in the 2018 midterms. Joe Biden ousted Trump in a national election with record-high turnout. Republicans spent the next year, in states they control, fighting to make it harder to vote and promoting lies that the 2020 turnout had been stocked with fraudulent Democratic votes.
How then to explain the election Tuesday in Virginia, where Glenn Youngkin, now the Republican governor-elect, beat former Gov. Terry McAuliffe in a contest in which at least 25% more votes were cast than in any governor’s race in the state’s history? (The number will go up; mail-in ballots postmarked by Election Day will be counted as long as they are received by Friday.)
Youngkin won the first governor’s race contested under new voting laws adopted by the Democratic majorities elected in 2019 to the state’s General Assembly.
Virginia Democrats and Gov. Ralph Northam repealed the state’s voter ID law, enacted 45 days of no-excuse absentee voting, made Election Day a state holiday and enacted automatic voter registration for anyone who receives a driver’s license in Virginia.
Making it easier to vote worked.
In this week’s election, McAuliffe won 200,000 votes more than Northam did when he won the 2017 election in a blowout. He won nearly 600,000 more votes than he did in 2013 when he beat Ken Cuccinelli to become governor. He beat his internal turnout targets in Northern Virginia, Richmond and the Norfolk area. Turnout was strong in Black precincts, college towns and the suburbs, all traditional areas of strength for Democratic candidates.
Yet Youngkin still got more votes, buoyed by turnout near presidential-election levels across rural Virginia and better than anticipated numbers in the outer suburbs of Washington. He won far more votes than McAuliffe’s team or virtually any of the public polling had anticipated.
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In some of the most important battleground states, like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, Cecil said, a majority of the voting-age public is white people without college degrees, a demographic that has been trending away from Democrats since 2008 and broke strongly against McAuliffe in Virginia, according to exit polling.
If turnout in the 2022 midterms spikes in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, which both have Senate and governor’s races on the ballot, it may not necessarily benefit the Democratic candidates.
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In the current environment, when Republicans are furious with an increasingly unpopular Democratic president, if Democrats and the White House don’t figure out a way to turn their political fortunes around, it may not matter if Democratic candidates reach their turnout goals in the midterms.
Midterm elections over the past decade have hinged on whose voters are angrier. Right now, Democrats are arguing among themselves about legislation they’ve been negotiating for months, while Republicans have adopted a coded phrase as a stand-in to shout obscenities about Biden.
It’s not hard to predict which side’s voters will be more eager to turn out next year.
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From what I can tell, the Democrats (some of them) are doubling down on their lavish spending, bigger gov't ways. The Far Left wants more, not less but the moderate Dems want less not more, and in view of what happened in Virginia and New Jersey their party looks to be headed for another shellacking. It'll be interesting to see how the primaries go next year for the Dems, will the progressives gain or lose seats? And will they lose their House majority in November? Right now I'd bet good money on that.
When turnout sagged, during the 2010 and the 2014 midterm elections, Republicans won wave elections. In 2016, fewer people voted than in 2012 and Donald Trump won the presidency, shocking Democrats and turbocharging a more explicit Republican argument that making voting harder would make it easier for the GOP to win elections.
Then turnout jumped again in the Trump years — in Virginia four years ago, in special elections and in the 2018 midterms. Joe Biden ousted Trump in a national election with record-high turnout. Republicans spent the next year, in states they control, fighting to make it harder to vote and promoting lies that the 2020 turnout had been stocked with fraudulent Democratic votes.
How then to explain the election Tuesday in Virginia, where Glenn Youngkin, now the Republican governor-elect, beat former Gov. Terry McAuliffe in a contest in which at least 25% more votes were cast than in any governor’s race in the state’s history? (The number will go up; mail-in ballots postmarked by Election Day will be counted as long as they are received by Friday.)
Youngkin won the first governor’s race contested under new voting laws adopted by the Democratic majorities elected in 2019 to the state’s General Assembly.
Virginia Democrats and Gov. Ralph Northam repealed the state’s voter ID law, enacted 45 days of no-excuse absentee voting, made Election Day a state holiday and enacted automatic voter registration for anyone who receives a driver’s license in Virginia.
Making it easier to vote worked.
In this week’s election, McAuliffe won 200,000 votes more than Northam did when he won the 2017 election in a blowout. He won nearly 600,000 more votes than he did in 2013 when he beat Ken Cuccinelli to become governor. He beat his internal turnout targets in Northern Virginia, Richmond and the Norfolk area. Turnout was strong in Black precincts, college towns and the suburbs, all traditional areas of strength for Democratic candidates.
Yet Youngkin still got more votes, buoyed by turnout near presidential-election levels across rural Virginia and better than anticipated numbers in the outer suburbs of Washington. He won far more votes than McAuliffe’s team or virtually any of the public polling had anticipated.
.
.
In some of the most important battleground states, like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, Cecil said, a majority of the voting-age public is white people without college degrees, a demographic that has been trending away from Democrats since 2008 and broke strongly against McAuliffe in Virginia, according to exit polling.
If turnout in the 2022 midterms spikes in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, which both have Senate and governor’s races on the ballot, it may not necessarily benefit the Democratic candidates.
.
.
In the current environment, when Republicans are furious with an increasingly unpopular Democratic president, if Democrats and the White House don’t figure out a way to turn their political fortunes around, it may not matter if Democratic candidates reach their turnout goals in the midterms.
Midterm elections over the past decade have hinged on whose voters are angrier. Right now, Democrats are arguing among themselves about legislation they’ve been negotiating for months, while Republicans have adopted a coded phrase as a stand-in to shout obscenities about Biden.
It’s not hard to predict which side’s voters will be more eager to turn out next year.
The Democratic Turnout Myth Unravels
Ever since Barack Obama swept into the White House on the strength of record turnout, it has been an article of faith among Democrats that the more people who vote, the better the party will fare. When turnout sagged, during the 2010 and the 2014 midterm elections, Republicans won wave...
From what I can tell, the Democrats (some of them) are doubling down on their lavish spending, bigger gov't ways. The Far Left wants more, not less but the moderate Dems want less not more, and in view of what happened in Virginia and New Jersey their party looks to be headed for another shellacking. It'll be interesting to see how the primaries go next year for the Dems, will the progressives gain or lose seats? And will they lose their House majority in November? Right now I'd bet good money on that.
