Heavy Precipitation Over the US: Has it Increased as Some have Predicted it Should?

[Saigon]

Crusader Frank -

Then by all means read the article, come back and present a serious case.

I'll definitely read it and respond to it.

That is how debate works, no?


If both you and Daveman have conceded defeat on this topic - which is how it looks to me - why are you even commenting?

Either man up and discuss the topic, or leave it alone.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Crusader Frank -

Then by all means read the article, come back and present a serious case.

I'll definitely read it and respond to it.

That is how debate works, no?


If both you and Daveman have conceded defeat on this topic - which is how it looks to me - why are you even commenting?

Either man up and discuss the topic, or leave it alone.

Serious case for what?? That climate has been affecting the wine industry?

Go play with your stupid Mann tree ring

 

[Saigon]

Frank -

As I said, you and Daveman seem to have simply conceded defeat on these threads.

Lucikily there are still a few other posters here prepared to step up to the plate, anyway.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Crusader Frank -

Then by all means read the article, come back and present a serious case.

I'll definitely read it and respond to it.

That is how debate works, no?


If both you and Daveman have conceded defeat on this topic - which is how it looks to me - why are you even commenting?

Either man up and discuss the topic, or leave it alone.

Yes, that's real science. Climate affects the wine industry.

Wow.

Just fucking wow

 

[CrusaderFrank]

I'll concede CO2 has the effect you allege the day you can point to one single repeatable lab experiment that show how a 200PPM increase in CO2 raises temperature 5 degrees and spawns floods and droughts, until then you're as big as fraud as the guys who put together the Piltdown Man

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Frank -

As I said, you and Daveman seem to have simply conceded defeat on these threads.

Lucikily there are still a few other posters here prepared to step up to the plate, anyway.

I'll concede CO2 has the effect you allege the day you can point to one single repeatable lab experiment that show how a 200PPM increase in CO2 raises temperature 5 degrees and spawns floods and droughts, until then you're as big as fraud as the guys who put together the Piltdown Man

You're a fucking Moonbat.

Pointing at weather event and going, "See that?! Manmade Global Warming!" just isn't science

 

[flacaltenn]

What's the Tornado season gonna be like next year Mr Climate Change????

Got a Forecast for Toledo this Christmas Eve?

If it's all so clear and obvious --- stick your neck out and tell us when lower Manhattan is gonna flood.

You're a truly valuable asset TinkerBelle if you think you have a theory and explanation for the CURRENT and FUTURE climate..

You guys can hardly do a TEMP forecast for 2 decades.. Let alone sea levels, hurricanes and droughts.

You are in the same position of a guy who claims to have predicted last weeks earthquake, but always gets the time, date, and location wrong on the next one...

AGW has made some of it's supporters BELIEVE THEY HAVE SUPERpowers.

when actually sadly, they don't... And neither do their superheroes who would never confuse weather with climate..

Once again, you earn the title 'dumb fuck'.

The prediction for weather? The weather swings will be wider and wilder with an overall increase in warmth. And that is exactly what we have been seeing.

So THAT'S IT??? WIDER AND WILDER??? Two VERY scientific terms.. Not hotter or colder. Not wetter or dryer. Not stormy or calm.. NOT GLOBAL, but local.

And you will take credit for ANY EVENT (after the fact) to prove this is linked to CO2.

You've moved from science to shamanism. And your magical powers are limited by your inability to actually tell us whether Hurricane seasons will be more vigorous or not. Or WHEN or where the Wildness will manifest itself.. It's magical ain't it?

 

[Katzndogz]

It is not possible to fight a cult member. The Jim Jones cult drank the kool aid, the Heaven's Gate cult all died too. A cult member will happily embrace the disaster they caused. All you can do with a cult member is to try and limit what damage they do.

 

[flacaltenn]

Flac -

You have no support from NOAA or NASA

NASA:

Most climate scientists agree the main cause of the current global warming trend is human expansion of the "greenhouse effect" -- warming that results when the atmosphere traps heat radiating from Earth toward space.

Climate Change: Causes


NOOA: (which has entire swathes of data on climate change)

According to the range of possible forcing scenarios, and taking into account uncertainty in climate model performance, the IPCC projects a best estimate of global temperature increase of 1.8 - 4.0°C with a possible range of 1.1 - 6.4°C by 2100, depending on which emissions scenario is used. However, this global average will integrate widely varying regional responses, such as the likelihood that land areas will warm much faster than ocean temperatures, particularly those land areas in northern high latitudes (and mostly in the cold season). Additionally, it is very likely that heat waves and other hot extremes will increase.

Global Warming Frequently Asked Questions

You're not following the discussion Saigon.. Stay with me here.. We're talking about BLAMING GLOBAL warming for recent weather events.. The statement I made about you having no support from REPUTABLE orgs for doing so stands....

 

[flacaltenn]

You should prove your claims before attempting to disprove anyone's rebuttal.

Yes, fair enough. Here it is:

MELBOURNE — Australian grape growers believe that they are the canary in the coal mine of global warming, as a long drought forces wine makers to rethink the styles of wine they can produce and the regions they can grow in.

The three largest grape-growing regions in Australia, the driest inhabited continent, all depend on irrigation to survive. The high cost of water has made life tough for growers.

Industry groups estimate that of the 7,000 or so wine growers, as many as 1,000 may be forced to leave the industry this year because their vineyards are no longer financially viable.

"Climate change is the biggest issue we face," said Stephen Strachan, chief executive of the Winemakers' Federation of Australia. "Relatively small changes in temperature and precipitation do have reasonably large impacts in terms of wine style.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/25/business/worldbusiness/25iht-wine.1.11395929.html?pagewanted=all


There are stories like this happening in a dozen countries around the world right now. Spain I mentioned earlier, but there are several others as well.

An article from 2008 does NOT tell of an actual grape apopacalyse in Australia due to Global Warming. In fact, there is NO evidence that any of this supposition ever actually happened. The background is that the Wine Industry in Aus. is relatively NEW and strong. And it takes a couple decades to PROVE which areas can produce. So a NEW industry is gonna have some failures predicting WHERE wine grapes will grow.

I spent 20+ yrs in North Cal -- just south of Napa/Sonoma. Had friends and colleagues with vinyards and observed that you can grow wine grapes on ONE SIDE of hill and not on the other. In ONE Valley and not the one next door.. I'm NOT BUYING this fable...

How did that harvest in 2008 turn out AFTER the NYTimes cried wolf???

Winebiz | Vintage Reports

2008
According to the Winemakers’ Federation of Australia (WFA) 2008 Vintage Survey, Australia’s winegrape intake increased by 37% from last year, reaching a total of 1.83m tonnes. This figure is significantly larger than estimations made pre-harvest.Disease pressure was high due to humid and moist conditions in December. Powdery mildew pressure was high and in several sites quality was compromised. Native Marri flower was non-existent resulting in high bird pressure.

The region experienced a ‘compressed’ early vintage but this evened out after cooler conditions in early autumn.

False alarm eh??

Not only that.....

Note that's a PROJECTION from 2005, but current production in Australia is around 170KHect --- JUST LIKE the projection...

There's nothing here.. What other DISASTERS do you wanna discuss?

 

[Saigon]

Flacaltenn -

Do you accept that BOTH the NOAA and NASA accept human acitivty as a cause for climate change?

 

[Saigon]

An article from 2008 does NOT tell of an actual grape apopacalyse in Australia due to Global Warming. In fact, there is NO evidence that any of this supposition ever actually happened. The background is that the Wine Industry in Aus. is relatively NEW and strong. And it takes a couple decades to PROVE which areas can produce. So a NEW industry is gonna have some failures predicting WHERE wine grapes will grow.

Um....would I be right in guessing you have not been to Australia?

The industry dates back around a century, if not longer. It is by no means a young industry on the global scale; not by any means.

The FACT is that grapes have been produced in NSW and Victoria for more than a century, and are now being ploughed under because climate change and drought have made the industry economically unsustainable in some areas.

The industry in New Zealand, for instance, is much younger, but has never planted land and then ploughed it under as part of the experimentation you suggest. These days soil science make such experimentation largely unnecessary, and on the contrary allows more and more land to be used for winemaking.

Except for the impact of climate change.

btw, Winemaking is also being hit in Spain and to a less extent South Africa and Argentina. These are old industries, and not known for planning errors.

As for 2008:

"In June 2008 it became known that an expert panel had warned of long term, maybe irreversible, severe ecological damage for the whole Murray-Darling basin if it did not receive sufficient water by October of that year. In Tasmania drought conditions worsened in 2008, with many areas reporting no significant rainfall for three years"

Then in 2009:

"In 2009, drought conditions in South East Australia continued, after one of the driest summers for the region."

 

[flacaltenn]

<<From Saigon>>

Flacaltenn -

Do you accept that BOTH the NOAA and NASA accept human acitivty as a cause for climate change?

I really don't have time for folks who cannot follow the conversation.. You don't carry the quotes thru when you post and YOU ENTIRELY MISSED the context of the post you are questioning me on.. I will not waste more time here..

The post you're bugging me about is below... CLEARLY -- I'm addressing the point of THIS THREAD which is how YOU and the ALARMISTS are trying to blame current events ON Global Warming. THat somehow -- ANY ABBERANT weather event is EVIDENCE of climate change. YOU HAVE NO SUPPORT FOR MAKING CLAIMS ABOUT THE WEATHER AND BLAMING THAT on Global Warming.. Go find me a statement from the Nat Weather Service that blames GLOBAL WARMING for the hurricanes or tornadoes or even GRAPE FAILURE in Australia.

That support doesn't exist.. You and the alarmists are pretending that there are (and were) forecasted links to Global Warming. Go show me where SCIENTISTS say that these weather events are BECAUSE of Global Warming..

YES -- I'm shouting..

Here's what I originally said...

What's the Tornado season gonna be like next year Mr Climate Change????

Got a Forecast for Toledo this Christmas Eve?

If it's all so clear and obvious --- stick your neck out and tell us when lower Manhattan is gonna flood.

You're a truly valuable asset TinkerBelle if you think you have a theory and explanation for the CURRENT and FUTURE climate..

You guys can hardly do a TEMP forecast for 2 decades.. Let alone sea levels, hurricanes and droughts.

You are in the same position of a guy who claims to have predicted last weeks earthquake, but always gets the time, date, and location wrong on the next one...

AGW has made some of it's supporters BELIEVE THEY HAVE SUPERpowers.

when actually sadly, they don't... And neither do their superheroes who would never confuse weather with climate..

And another incredibly demented and extremely retarded post from ol' fecalhead.

Fecalhead is way too stupid to comprehend the fact that climate models do a pretty good job of predicting long term trends but nobody can predict specific weather events far in advance. Just another denier cult straw man argument from one of the resident retardos.

But yet you and OldieRocks and Saigon sit here and piss your pants about EVERY SINGLE abberant weather event. OR is tallying up the damages as we speak for events that were NOT predicted from climate models. In fact, I was challenged by Mamooth to go out and find any scientific AUTHORITY that was saying that Hurricanes would intensify and droughts would become common and flooding would simultaneously coexist with increased tornadic activity.. I found NONE. All of that has been conjured up in YOUR alarmist blogosphere by folks who can't tell us how many storms will occur next year or when or where they might likely occur. Yet you will take credit for ANYTHING weather that might occur out of the ordinary.

You truly are the guy who CLAIMS to have predicted last week earthquake, but has no freaking idea of where or when the next big one might strike. That's not science. You have no support from NOAA or NASA (except for radicals like Hansen) or any other credible climate tracking source. Because there is not enough knowledge to do that.

The alarmists have jumped the shark with the giddy thought that MAN has been the primary cause of the warming and that they have been endowed with the power to cast blame for bad crop years or tornadoes that hit city centers instead of pastureland.

That's a primal trick used by Shamans and Medicine Men to raise their level of importance in the tribe. It's primitive, it's dishonest, and it has NOTHING to do with a 0.5degC rise in average Global Surface Temperatures. The climate IS changing. Temps ARE going up. Cut the crap, strap on a Depends and stick to the science..

 

[Saigon]

Flac -

I did take your statement out of context, and I did not follow your entire conversation with Old Rocks - it just seemed strange to me that you would cite as authorities two organisations who both cite human activity as being partially responsible for climate change.

Are they credible authorities, or not?

 

[flacaltenn]

An article from 2008 does NOT tell of an actual grape apopacalyse in Australia due to Global Warming. In fact, there is NO evidence that any of this supposition ever actually happened. The background is that the Wine Industry in Aus. is relatively NEW and strong. And it takes a couple decades to PROVE which areas can produce. So a NEW industry is gonna have some failures predicting WHERE wine grapes will grow.

Um....would I be right in guessing you have not been to Australia?

The industry dates back around a century, if not longer. It is by no means a young industry on the global scale; not by any means.

The FACT is that grapes have been produced in NSW and Victoria for more than a century, and are now being ploughed under because climate change and drought have made the industry economically unsustainable in some areas.

The industry in New Zealand, for instance, is much younger, but has never planted land and then ploughed it under as part of the experimentation you suggest. These days soil science make such experimentation largely unnecessary, and on the contrary allows more and more land to be used for winemaking.

Except for the impact of climate change.

btw, Winemaking is also being hit in Spain and to a less extent South Africa and Argentina. These are old industries, and not known for planning errors.

As for 2008:

"In June 2008 it became known that an expert panel had warned of long term, maybe irreversible, severe ecological damage for the whole Murray-Darling basin if it did not receive sufficient water by October of that year. In Tasmania drought conditions worsened in 2008, with many areas reporting no significant rainfall for three years"

Then in 2009:

"In 2009, drought conditions in South East Australia continued, after one of the driest summers for the region."

No man --- sorry you've been crushed. Just like the VERY SUCCESSFUL wine grape harvest in 2008 which INCREASED 37% from 2007.

THe land under grape cultivation has DOUBLED since the mid-90s. It has probably grown 6 to 10 times what it was at the beginning of the century when SOME AUSTRALIANs tried to make mine an economic crop. They have expanded into MARGINAL AREAS that probably should NOT be growing grapes.

NOTE the dramatic rise in cultivation area since JUST 1994!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

There is no NUMERICAL evidence of a loss in 2008. IN FACT PRODUCTION INCREASED THAT YEAR. Nor is their ANY evidence that losses in particular regions are due to Global Warming..

I'm done with this assertion...

 

[flacaltenn]

Flac -

I did take your statement out of context, and I did not follow your entire conversation with Old Rocks - it just seemed strange to me that you would cite as authorities two organisations who both cite human activity as being partially responsible for climate change.

Are they credible authorities, or not?

Those agencies MAKE NO STATEMENTS about current weather events being undeniably due to Global Warming. And that was my point. That YOU and the alarmists have no basis for making such claims..

 

[Saigon]

Flac -

Seriously, man, you can do better than that.

Why would appalling droughts in one Australian state necessarily mean that the entire Australian harvest was ruined, or that the total land on which grapes were grown had not increased?

How does that disprove the FACT that winemakers have abandoned growing grapes in some areas because of climate change?

That makes absolutely no sense at all.

The funny thing is - climate change has also meant land in Tasmania and South Australia can now be cultivated, because rising temperatures have meant those cooler zones now suit some white wines.

 

[Saigon]

Those agencies MAKE NO STATEMENTS about current weather events being undeniably due to Global Warming. And that was my point. That YOU and the alarmists have no basis for making such claims..

On Earth, human activities are changing the natural greenhouse. Over the last century the burning of fossil fuels like coal and oil has increased the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). This happens because the coal or oil burning process combines carbon with oxygen in the air to make CO2. To a lesser extent, the clearing of land for agriculture, industry, and other human activities have increased concentrations of greenhouse gases.

Climate Change: Causes

 

[Saigon]

Nor is their ANY evidence that losses in particular regions are due to Global Warming..

Australian grape growers believe that they are the canary in the coal mine of global warming, as a long drought forces wine makers to rethink the styles of wine they can produce and the regions they can grow in.

Some say they probably will not survive the harvest this year because of the cost of keeping vines alive. The price of water more than tripled last year.

"On the back of three very ordinary years, this year is probably the worst that could have occurred with the drought and the high costs of water," said Michael de Palma, a midsize grower in Redcliffe, Victoria, in the Murray Valley, one of the country's three big wine regions.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/25/business/worldbusiness/25iht-wine.1.11395929.html?pagewanted=all

And in the US....


As farmers in the United States slog through the country&#8217;s largest drought in 50 years, a lot of people are asking about the connection between global warming and the arid landscape in the Midwest. Is climate change causing this drought? Didn&#8217;t the United States suffer worse droughts in the past? And what will happen if the planet keeps heating up?

And the short version is this: Droughts have multiple causes. The United States has suffered worse droughts in the past. It&#8217;s not yet clear whether we&#8217;ve reached the point where global warming is making droughts worse again, at least in North America. But evidence suggests that droughts will become more intense in many parts of the world if the planet keeps heating up &#8212; a trend that could disrupt the world&#8217;s food supply.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...hat-we-know-about-climate-change-and-drought/

 

[flacaltenn]

Nor is their ANY evidence that losses in particular regions are due to Global Warming..

Australian grape growers believe that they are the canary in the coal mine of global warming, as a long drought forces wine makers to rethink the styles of wine they can produce and the regions they can grow in.

Some say they probably will not survive the harvest this year because of the cost of keeping vines alive. The price of water more than tripled last year.

"On the back of three very ordinary years, this year is probably the worst that could have occurred with the drought and the high costs of water," said Michael de Palma, a midsize grower in Redcliffe, Victoria, in the Murray Valley, one of the country's three big wine regions.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/25/business/worldbusiness/25iht-wine.1.11395929.html?pagewanted=all

You're posting the SAME 2008 ARTICLE I just DEBUNKED???????

How crazy are you man? Unfunking believable..

The HARVEST THAT YEAR WAS 37% HIGHER than the previous year.. What part of that and the 10 other FACTS I gave you don't you understand? The NYTimes article was all UNWARRANTED speculation -- All you've done is respond to my facts with MORE speculation..

At this point -- you're making a fool of yourself...