Goldman Sachs believes the US economy will slow to a crawl next year

[JGalt]

We are overdue for a recession, and the Fed is raising rates, while pulling 50 Billion out of the economy per month. Housing is a leading indicator and it isn’t looking good.

Have some faith. We now have a President who can deal with pretty much anything that comes our way. Just be glad that Hillary isn't President.

It’s not about faith. Presidents get far too much credit and far too much blame for the economy. Certainly the president can enact policies which will directly effect the economy (like Trumps silly trade war is bad for the economy), but the Federal Reserve and natural economic cycles are more pertinent. BTW- you must have loved Slick Willie if you are judging presidents based on the economy.

It's not a "trade war." It's retaliation for decades of unfair trade practices and being taken advantage of in the marketplace. You may not like it now but in the long run, it was past time that someone addressed the problem.

BTW, Bill Clinton is the one who sold the country out by giving China their "most favored trade nation" status."

Not a trade war huh. You’re the only person in the world who doesn’t think it’s a trade war.

They started it. We'll finish it.

 

[JGalt]

We are overdue for a recession, and the Fed is raising rates, while pulling 50 Billion out of the economy per month. Housing is a leading indicator and it isn’t looking good.

Have some faith. We now have a President who can deal with pretty much anything that comes our way. Just be glad that Hillary isn't President.

It’s not about faith. Presidents get far too much credit and far too much blame for the economy. Certainly the president can enact policies which will directly effect the economy (like Trumps silly trade war is bad for the economy), but the Federal Reserve and natural economic cycles are more pertinent. BTW- you must have loved Slick Willie if you are judging presidents based on the economy.

It's not a "trade war." It's retaliation for decades of unfair trade practices and being taken advantage of in the marketplace. You may not like it now but in the long run, it was past time that someone addressed the problem.

BTW, Bill Clinton is the one who sold the country out by giving China their "most favored trade nation" status."

Not a trade war huh. You’re the only person in the world who doesn’t think it’s a trade war.

There are all kinds of signs that Trump's tariffs are working against China..

Import Prices: Still No Signs of Tariffs Taxing Consumers | Breitbart

 

[MisterBeale]

We are overdue for a recession, and the Fed is raising rates, while pulling 50 Billion out of the economy per month. Housing is a leading indicator and it isn’t looking good.

Have some faith. We now have a President who can deal with pretty much anything that comes our way. Just be glad that Hillary isn't President.

It’s not about faith. Presidents get far too much credit and far too much blame for the economy. Certainly the president can enact policies which will directly effect the economy (like Trumps silly trade war is bad for the economy), but the Federal Reserve and natural economic cycles are more pertinent. BTW- you must have loved Slick Willie if you are judging presidents based on the economy.

It's not a "trade war." It's retaliation for decades of unfair trade practices and being taken advantage of in the marketplace. You may not like it now but in the long run, it was past time that someone addressed the problem.

BTW, Bill Clinton is the one who sold the country out by giving China their "most favored trade nation" status."

Not a trade war huh. You’re the only person in the world who doesn’t think it’s a trade war.

They started it. We'll finish it.

You are both wrong. Much like Agricultural subsidies are there to make sure the nation always has food available, there is a long range logic to this so called "trade war," that has nothing to do with economics, it has to do with national security.

We look to the last great war as our lesson.

COLUMN-The cold military logic behind Trump's trade war: Andy Home
COLUMN-The cold military logic behind Trump's trade war: Andy Home | Reuters
"LONDON, Nov 1 (Reuters) - The U.S. military has a tent problem.

The only domestic supplier of the specialist polyester fibre used in its tents has gone out of business with potential “significant impact to multiple tent and fabric systems”, according to a multi-agency assessment of weaknesses in the U.S. defence complex.

Tents are just one of nearly 300 strategic frailties identified in the country’s military supply chains. (“Assessing and Strengthening the Manufacturing and Defense Supply Chain Resiliency of the United States”, September 2018)

The list ranges from the cold-rolled aluminium used for armour plating through submarine shaft maintenance to the silicon power switches used in missile systems. And that’s just the handful of examples that made it into the declassified section of the report.

“All facets of the manufacturing and defense industrial base are currently under threat, at a time when strategic competitors and revisionist powers appear to be growing in strength and capability,” the report states.. . . "


You do both know that the Pentagon failed it's first ever Audit? Let's face it, the U.S. empire is slowly disintegrating. Only fools that believe the lies of corporate media deny reality.

 

[McRocket]

JP Morgan sees a slowdown coming, with economy growing at less than 2 percent in 2019

• JP Morgan economists said the economy should grow at a slower pace of 1.9 percent from the fourth quarter's year over year rate of 3.1 percent.
• They point to reduced stimulus from fiscal and monetary policy and negative drag from trade policy.
• The economist expect the Fed to raise interest rates four times, and consumer inflation running at a pace of 2.3 percent.

JP Morgan sees a slowdown coming, with economy growing at less than 2 percent in 2019 

 

[McRocket]

Have some faith. We now have a President who can deal with pretty much anything that comes our way. Just be glad that Hillary isn't President.

It’s not about faith. Presidents get far too much credit and far too much blame for the economy. Certainly the president can enact policies which will directly effect the economy (like Trumps silly trade war is bad for the economy), but the Federal Reserve and natural economic cycles are more pertinent. BTW- you must have loved Slick Willie if you are judging presidents based on the economy.

It's not a "trade war." It's retaliation for decades of unfair trade practices and being taken advantage of in the marketplace. You may not like it now but in the long run, it was past time that someone addressed the problem.

BTW, Bill Clinton is the one who sold the country out by giving China their "most favored trade nation" status."

Not a trade war huh. You’re the only person in the world who doesn’t think it’s a trade war.

They started it. We'll finish it.

You are both wrong. Much like Agricultural subsidies are there to make sure the nation always has food available, there is a long range logic to this so called "trade war," that has nothing to do with economics, it has to do with national security.

We look to the last great war as our lesson.

COLUMN-The cold military logic behind Trump's trade war: Andy Home
COLUMN-The cold military logic behind Trump's trade war: Andy Home | Reuters
"LONDON, Nov 1 (Reuters) - The U.S. military has a tent problem.

The only domestic supplier of the specialist polyester fibre used in its tents has gone out of business with potential “significant impact to multiple tent and fabric systems”, according to a multi-agency assessment of weaknesses in the U.S. defence complex.

Tents are just one of nearly 300 strategic frailties identified in the country’s military supply chains. (“Assessing and Strengthening the Manufacturing and Defense Supply Chain Resiliency of the United States”, September 2018)

The list ranges from the cold-rolled aluminium used for armour plating through submarine shaft maintenance to the silicon power switches used in missile systems. And that’s just the handful of examples that made it into the declassified section of the report.

“All facets of the manufacturing and defense industrial base are currently under threat, at a time when strategic competitors and revisionist powers appear to be growing in strength and capability,” the report states.. . . "


You do both know that the Pentagon failed it's first ever Audit? Let's face it, the U.S. empire is slowly disintegrating. Only fools that believe the lies of corporate media deny reality.

Tents?



Some moron that almost no one has ever heard of writes a pro-trade war article, and you scream out - 'THERE...SEE'?

Sorry pal...almost every, respected economist and politician (if there are any of the latter) - including the U.S. Chamber of Commerce - will tell you that trade wars NEVER work.

And strategic concerns? Are you out of your mind? If Trump shuts off America's economy from the world, it is going to get a WHOLE lot harder and more expensive to get materials that America needs for national defense.
Plus, it makes sense that if the military can buy those goods offshore, at a far cheaper price, it is their duty to the American taxpayer (during peacetime) to do just that.
It is neither responsible, nor possible, for EVERY, SINGLE thing AND EVERY, SINGLE raw material/base product that the American military needs is 100% manufactured in America. That is flat out insane and would shoot the cost of defending America WAY up.
TOTALLY unnecessarily.

Either you are some neo con ding dong OR you are just desperate to defend Trump's moronic trade war crap.

Whichever - you are clueless as to what America truly needs, IMO.


We are done here.

Have a nice day.

 

[gipper]

• Goldman predicts 2.5 percent and 2.2 percent growth in the first two quarters of 2019, respectively, but then just 1.8 percent and 1.6 percent real GDP growth in the final two quarters.
• "We expect tighter financial conditions and a fading fiscal stimulus to be the key drivers of the deceleration," wrote the bank's chief economist, Jan Hatzius.
• But Goldman believes the U.S. will skirt a recession next year.

'Goldman Sachs believes the U.S. economy will slow significantly in the second half of next year as the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates and the effects of the tax cut fade.

"Growth is likely to slow significantly next year, from a recent pace of 3.5 percent-plus to roughly our 1.75 percent estimate of potential by end-2019," wrote Jan Hatzius, chief economist for the investment bank, in a note to clients on Sunday. "We expect tighter financial conditions and a fading fiscal stimulus to be the key drivers of the deceleration."


The bank sees the economy expanding at 2.5 percent in the fourth quarter of this year, down from 3.5 percent last quarter. Real GDP growth will come in at 2.5 percent again in the first quarter of 2019, but then will slow to 2.2 percent, 1.8 percent and 1.6 percent in the next three quarters, respectively.'

Goldman Sachs believes the US economy will slow to a crawl next year

Interesting.

You're touting Goldman Sachs, who committed one of the most significant scandals in its history, a multibillion-dollar international fraud?

I though your leftards hated Goldman Sachs? Why the sudden change of heart?

In a sane nation, Goldman would have been closed down long ago. Yet another proof that the criminal ruling class is in control and seldom faces consequences for their criminal actions.

 

[Windparadox]

`
Up where I live, we do a lot of trading and bartering of commodities. No cash trades hands, no records kept. And while I am loath to admit it, having gold on hand in small denominations such as in the shape of stamps and credit cards always work in lieu of cash.
1

 

[McRocket]

The folks at Goldman pretty much know what the FED is going to do, they have pull over there.

True - to a point.

It has nothing to do with the federal government, they don't have control over it.

Trump appointed both the Chairman and the Vice Chairman of the Fed. Obviously, he appointed people that agreed to do what he told them to or he would not have appointed them. At the very least, he would have appointed people who had told him in advance EXACTLY what they were going to to do and when. AND how they saw the economy and Trump would have made sure they agreed with how he saw it or he would not have appointed them. ESPECIALLY a guy like Trump who is all about loyalty.

The banking cabal would never tell the truth anyway. They will always hold their cards close. It increases their chance to make a profit and screw the rest over.

Banks are not going to release statements about forecasts that are flat out lies or deliberately erroneous...that would be corporate suicide. If anyone ever found out, NO ONE would trust them again - not without a total board replacement. Trust is what banks depend on.
And how the hell does telling everyone that the economy looks fair-at-best for the future going to help them? All that does is encourage people to stop investing/expanding and not take out new loans/investments. That hurts the banks - not helps them.
The banks are almost all coming out and saying what the equity markets and economists see crystal clearly - that the economy does not look good going forward.

No doubt you disagree with the above.

No doubt I do not much care as your mind is closed and your knowledge on this subject is clearly limited, IMO.


We are done here.

Ta ta.

 

[MisterBeale]

The folks at Goldman pretty much know what the FED is going to do, they have pull over there.

True - to a point.

It has nothing to do with the federal government, they don't have control over it.

Trump appointed both the Chairman and the Vice Chairman of the Fed. Obviously, he appointed people that agreed to do what he told them to or he would not have appointed them. At the very least, he would have appointed people who had told him in advance EXACTLY what they were going to to do and when. AND how they saw the economy and Trump would have made sure they agreed with how he saw it or he would not have appointed them. ESPECIALLY a guy like Trump who is all about loyalty.

The banking cabal would never tell the truth anyway. They will always hold their cards close. It increases their chance to make a profit and screw the rest over.

Banks are not going to release statements about forecasts that are flat out lies or deliberately erroneous...that would be corporate suicide. If anyone ever found out, NO ONE would trust them again - not without a total board replacement. Trust is what banks depend on.
And how the hell does telling everyone that the economy looks fair-at-best for the future going to help them? All that does is encourage people to stop investing/expanding and not take out new loans/investments. That hurts the banks - not helps them.
The banks are almost all coming out and saying what the equity markets and economists see crystal clearly - that the economy does not look good going forward.

No doubt you disagree with the above.

No doubt I do not much care as your mind is closed and your knowledge on this subject is clearly limited, IMO.


We are done here.

Ta ta.

"Bottom Line


The fallout from the 2008 financial crisis continues to affect Americans' views of the banking industry. Despite some signs of economic recovery, views of the economy's overall health remain negative, and Americans are not much more willing to express confidence in banks.


Low confidence in banks is not unprecedented, and Americans' views of the institution have recovered in the past from severe dips. However, past events such as the Savings and Loan Crisis paled in comparison to the wide-ranging effects of the 2008 financial crisis that led the economy to depths unseen since the Great Depression. Regaining Americans' trust in recent years, then, appears to be a heavier lift for the banking industry. And it is unclear when -- or if -- Americans' confidence in banks will be restored to what it was a decade ago."
Americans' Confidence in Banks Still Languishing Below 30%

 

[MisterBeale]

It’s not about faith. Presidents get far too much credit and far too much blame for the economy. Certainly the president can enact policies which will directly effect the economy (like Trumps silly trade war is bad for the economy), but the Federal Reserve and natural economic cycles are more pertinent. BTW- you must have loved Slick Willie if you are judging presidents based on the economy.

It's not a "trade war." It's retaliation for decades of unfair trade practices and being taken advantage of in the marketplace. You may not like it now but in the long run, it was past time that someone addressed the problem.

BTW, Bill Clinton is the one who sold the country out by giving China their "most favored trade nation" status."

Not a trade war huh. You’re the only person in the world who doesn’t think it’s a trade war.

They started it. We'll finish it.

You are both wrong. Much like Agricultural subsidies are there to make sure the nation always has food available, there is a long range logic to this so called "trade war," that has nothing to do with economics, it has to do with national security.

We look to the last great war as our lesson.

COLUMN-The cold military logic behind Trump's trade war: Andy Home
COLUMN-The cold military logic behind Trump's trade war: Andy Home | Reuters
"LONDON, Nov 1 (Reuters) - The U.S. military has a tent problem.

The only domestic supplier of the specialist polyester fibre used in its tents has gone out of business with potential “significant impact to multiple tent and fabric systems”, according to a multi-agency assessment of weaknesses in the U.S. defence complex.

Tents are just one of nearly 300 strategic frailties identified in the country’s military supply chains. (“Assessing and Strengthening the Manufacturing and Defense Supply Chain Resiliency of the United States”, September 2018)

The list ranges from the cold-rolled aluminium used for armour plating through submarine shaft maintenance to the silicon power switches used in missile systems. And that’s just the handful of examples that made it into the declassified section of the report.

“All facets of the manufacturing and defense industrial base are currently under threat, at a time when strategic competitors and revisionist powers appear to be growing in strength and capability,” the report states.. . . "


You do both know that the Pentagon failed it's first ever Audit? Let's face it, the U.S. empire is slowly disintegrating. Only fools that believe the lies of corporate media deny reality.

Tents?



Some moron that almost no one has ever heard of writes a pro-trade war article, and you scream out - 'THERE...SEE'?

Sorry pal...almost every, respected economist and politician (if there are any of the latter) - including the U.S. Chamber of Commerce - will tell you that trade wars NEVER work.

And strategic concerns? Are you out of your mind? If Trump shuts off America's economy from the world, it is going to get a WHOLE lot harder and more expensive to get materials that America needs for national defense.
Plus, it makes sense that if the military can buy those goods offshore, at a far cheaper price, it is their duty to the American taxpayer (during peacetime) to do just that.
It is neither responsible, nor possible, for EVERY, SINGLE thing AND EVERY, SINGLE raw material/base product that the American military needs is 100% manufactured in America. That is flat out insane and would shoot the cost of defending America WAY up.
TOTALLY unnecessarily.

Either you are some neo con ding dong OR you are just desperate to defend Trump's moronic trade war crap.

Whichever - you are clueless as to what America truly needs, IMO.


We are done here.

Have a nice day.

You're funny.

You really have no historical perspective, do you?

Actually, every single thing the American military needed WAS manufactured here probably until just after 'Nam. Why do you have a problem with that?

Why do you think that is not "responsible or possible?"

Sure, it might shoot the cost of defending America way up, what of it? Do you have something against providing jobs and careers to Americans? What are you, anti-American?

As far as attacking the logic of the article based on the back ground of the author? I neither care about his back ground, nor am I interested. For all I know he is writing under a pen name. Folks often do that to protect their anonymity for various reasons. To launch an Ad Hominem attack on the arguments based on a personnel attack is a logical fallacy, I am above such distraction.

I agree with you, from a purely economic standpoint, Trade Wars don't make any sense, and strict quotas on amounts for strategic purposes should probably be imposed. OTH, if you do not see the logic behind this piece, or the reason it is a national security concern, I cannot help you.

This is more about National Security for this Administration than it is about making it a "Trade War." That is how the corporate media is brain washing you. Pay attention and READ. Investigate the reason behind that policy. LEARN.

Trump’s National Security Strategy unveiled, with focus on economics
Trump’s National Security Strategy unveiled, with focus on economics

". . . When asked how this document, with its broad topics, differentiates from the Obama administration’s NSS, a second official pointed to two areas of emphasis — an “unprecedented” focus on homeland security, and the focus on the economy as a national security issue.


Indeed, the economic focus appears to be woven throughout the strategy, with the “serious intellectual property threat” posed by China a point of emphasis.


The document calls for reforms to the CFIUS rules, which govern how foreign nations can invest in the U.S. and which are already being looked at in a bipartisan manner inside Congress. The strategy also calls for a look at how to better secure R&D centers, such as universities, in order to make sure American IP is protected.


“We’re looking at the measures we need to take to protect the national security [industrial] base,” the official said, including “looking at reciprocity or the lack of reciprocity” in technological investments, to make sure “we are being treated fairly.”


In addition, the officials highlighted “several” sections on the need for fair and balanced trade agreements between the U.S. and its partners overseas. “It features pretty significantly in the strategy,” the first official said. . . "

NPR provides that doc. for us. .
https://apps.npr.org/documents/document.html?id=4332188-Trump-s-National-Security-Strategy-Dec-2017

 

[MisterBeale]

`
Up where I live, we do a lot of trading and bartering of commodities. No cash trades hands, no records kept. And while I am loath to admit it, having gold on hand in small denominations such as in the shape of stamps and credit cards always work in lieu of cash.
1

Hmm. . . .

What sort of liberal are YOU? Not one FDR would approve of. Nor one the FED would either.

 

[PredFan]

• Goldman predicts 2.5 percent and 2.2 percent growth in the first two quarters of 2019, respectively, but then just 1.8 percent and 1.6 percent real GDP growth in the final two quarters.
• "We expect tighter financial conditions and a fading fiscal stimulus to be the key drivers of the deceleration," wrote the bank's chief economist, Jan Hatzius.
• But Goldman believes the U.S. will skirt a recession next year.

'Goldman Sachs believes the U.S. economy will slow significantly in the second half of next year as the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates and the effects of the tax cut fade.

"Growth is likely to slow significantly next year, from a recent pace of 3.5 percent-plus to roughly our 1.75 percent estimate of potential by end-2019," wrote Jan Hatzius, chief economist for the investment bank, in a note to clients on Sunday. "We expect tighter financial conditions and a fading fiscal stimulus to be the key drivers of the deceleration."


The bank sees the economy expanding at 2.5 percent in the fourth quarter of this year, down from 3.5 percent last quarter. Real GDP growth will come in at 2.5 percent again in the first quarter of 2019, but then will slow to 2.2 percent, 1.8 percent and 1.6 percent in the next three quarters, respectively.'

Goldman Sachs believes the US economy will slow to a crawl next year

Interesting.

Not surprising since they know that the Democrat led House will stymie everything Trump tried to do.

 

[JGalt]

• Goldman predicts 2.5 percent and 2.2 percent growth in the first two quarters of 2019, respectively, but then just 1.8 percent and 1.6 percent real GDP growth in the final two quarters.
• "We expect tighter financial conditions and a fading fiscal stimulus to be the key drivers of the deceleration," wrote the bank's chief economist, Jan Hatzius.
• But Goldman believes the U.S. will skirt a recession next year.

'Goldman Sachs believes the U.S. economy will slow significantly in the second half of next year as the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates and the effects of the tax cut fade.

"Growth is likely to slow significantly next year, from a recent pace of 3.5 percent-plus to roughly our 1.75 percent estimate of potential by end-2019," wrote Jan Hatzius, chief economist for the investment bank, in a note to clients on Sunday. "We expect tighter financial conditions and a fading fiscal stimulus to be the key drivers of the deceleration."


The bank sees the economy expanding at 2.5 percent in the fourth quarter of this year, down from 3.5 percent last quarter. Real GDP growth will come in at 2.5 percent again in the first quarter of 2019, but then will slow to 2.2 percent, 1.8 percent and 1.6 percent in the next three quarters, respectively.'

Goldman Sachs believes the US economy will slow to a crawl next year

Interesting.

If the economy does come to a screeching halt, you can blame the Democrats and their silly little "blue wave." Even though they didn't do as well as they expected, the American economy has very little trust in the Democrat's plan for this country.

I posted some proof here:

Dem's "Blue Wave" Wipes Out Whole Year's Market Gains

 

[Pilot1]

And what party does Goldman Sachs typically support? What party do their leaders solely support, and solely become when they run for office? Hint John Corzine.

 

[danielpalos]

• Goldman predicts 2.5 percent and 2.2 percent growth in the first two quarters of 2019, respectively, but then just 1.8 percent and 1.6 percent real GDP growth in the final two quarters.
• "We expect tighter financial conditions and a fading fiscal stimulus to be the key drivers of the deceleration," wrote the bank's chief economist, Jan Hatzius.
• But Goldman believes the U.S. will skirt a recession next year.

'Goldman Sachs believes the U.S. economy will slow significantly in the second half of next year as the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates and the effects of the tax cut fade.

"Growth is likely to slow significantly next year, from a recent pace of 3.5 percent-plus to roughly our 1.75 percent estimate of potential by end-2019," wrote Jan Hatzius, chief economist for the investment bank, in a note to clients on Sunday. "We expect tighter financial conditions and a fading fiscal stimulus to be the key drivers of the deceleration."


The bank sees the economy expanding at 2.5 percent in the fourth quarter of this year, down from 3.5 percent last quarter. Real GDP growth will come in at 2.5 percent again in the first quarter of 2019, but then will slow to 2.2 percent, 1.8 percent and 1.6 percent in the next three quarters, respectively.'

Goldman Sachs believes the US economy will slow to a crawl next year

Interesting.

But, how can that happen with tax cut economics? Everything should be, fine and wonderful.

 

[Windparadox]

Hmm. . . .What sort of liberal are YOU? Not one FDR would approve of. Nor one the FED would either.

`
Yes, in this country, from 1933 to 1974 it was illegal for U.S. citizens to own gold in the form of gold bullion, without a special license. On January 1, 1975, these restrictions were lifted and gold can now be freely held in the U. S. without any licensing or restrictions of any kind.

 

[McRocket]

Economists see the Trump economy slowing drastically next year before a possible recession in 2020

• Economic growth popped in 2018, boosted by tax cuts, but those benefits should fade in 2019 and growth will get back to its longer term pace of near 2 percent.
• A group of 10 economists, including the Fed, have an average forecast of 2.4 percent for 2019, according to a CNBC survey.
• Three big factors behind the slower growth—fading impact of tax cuts, trade wars and tariffs and the Federal Reserve's rate hiking policy.
• Economists do not see a recession until 2020, at the earliest.

Economists see the Trump economy slowing drastically next year before a possible recession in 2020