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Gary Shilling: Recession Will Return Next Year
Read more: Gary Shilling: Recession Will Return Next Year
http://www.moneynews.com/StreetTalk/Gary-Shilling-Recession-Return/2011/06/27/id/401533
Same guy who predicted the last recession, which seems to have never ended but has if you go by NBER's technical definition.
“I’m predicting another recession next year,” he told MarketWatch. It’s not a double-dip recession, because 3 ½ years already have passed since the last recession began in December 2007 (it ended in June 2009), he says.
In the past, severe recessions – this was the worst since the 1930s – were followed by sharp rebounds. But this time around the recovery has been “distinctly subpar,” Shilling says.
“As of the first quarter, real GDP is barely above its peak in the fourth quarter of 2007, whereas earlier recoveries were well above their previous tops 13 quarters later,” he writes in a recent edition of his newsletter, Insight.
The housing sector is particularly weak, Shilling says. He predicts another 20 percent plunge for home prices by 2013, when we finally hit bottom.
Read more: Gary Shilling: Recession Will Return Next Year
http://www.moneynews.com/StreetTalk/Gary-Shilling-Recession-Return/2011/06/27/id/401533
Same guy who predicted the last recession, which seems to have never ended but has if you go by NBER's technical definition.
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