Gary Shilling: Recession Will Return Next Year

[CaféAuLait]

Gary Shilling: Recession Will Return Next Year

“I’m predicting another recession next year,” he told MarketWatch. It’s not a double-dip recession, because 3 ½ years already have passed since the last recession began in December 2007 (it ended in June 2009), he says.


In the past, severe recessions – this was the worst since the 1930s – were followed by sharp rebounds. But this time around the recovery has been “distinctly subpar,” Shilling says.

“As of the first quarter, real GDP is barely above its peak in the fourth quarter of 2007, whereas earlier recoveries were well above their previous tops 13 quarters later,” he writes in a recent edition of his newsletter, Insight.

The housing sector is particularly weak, Shilling says. He predicts another 20 percent plunge for home prices by 2013, when we finally hit bottom.

Read more: Gary Shilling: Recession Will Return Next Year

http://www.moneynews.com/StreetTalk/Gary-Shilling-Recession-Return/2011/06/27/id/401533

Same guy who predicted the last recession, which seems to have never ended but has if you go by NBER's technical definition.

 

[Sallow]

And by not raising the Debt Ceiling..something they did 19 times during the Bush administration, Conservatives are assuring the collapse of the American Economy to make a sitting president "look bad'.

True patriots.

 

[uscitizen]

I predicted the last recession. and have said all along that it ould be a long adjustment downward, not just a regular recession that we would climb back out of and be stronger later.

We must learn to live with less.

 

[Avatar4321]

return? When did it leave?

Sallow, if you think raising the debt ceilling isnt as dangerous to the economy right now, you are dreaming. We are between a rock and a hard place. Whether we raise it or not, we have serious financial problems.

I say if we are going to raise the debt ceiling, we get some spending cuts for doing it.

 

[Missourian]

And by not raising the Debt Ceiling..something they did 19 times during the Bush administration, Conservatives are assuring the collapse of the American Economy to make a sitting president "look bad'.

True patriots.

'In 2006, Sen. Barack Obama voted against raising the debt ceiling to allow the U.S. to borrow more money, saying Washington was saddling future generations with its out-of-control spending.'

<snip>

'In 2006, Mr. Obama struck a high moral tone in opposing legislation to raise the debt ceiling. “Increasing America’s debt weakens us domestically and internationally. Leadership means that `the buck stops here.’ Instead, Washington is shifting the burden of bad choices today onto the backs of our children and grandchildren. America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership. Americans deserve better,” he said on the Senate floor.'

Obama on the Debt Limit: Then and Now - Washington Wire - WSJ​

 

[Missourian]

Back to the topic.

I think Shilling's right.

(Reuters) - The index that tracks tonnage hauled by American trucks fell in May, renewing anxiety over the economy, a trade group said on Monday.

The American Trucking Association's (ATA) advance seasonally adjusted For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index fell 2.3 percent in May, after falling a revised 0.6 percent in April.

On a year-to-year basis, tonnage climbed 2.7 percent in May, the smallest year-over-year gain since February last year, ATA said. (Reporting by Selam Gebrekidan; Editing by David Gregorio)

CORRECTED-U.S. trucking tonnage dips in May vs April -ATA | Reuters
​

 

[Lumpy 1]

And by not raising the Debt Ceiling..something they did 19 times during the Bush administration, Conservatives are assuring the collapse of the American Economy to make a sitting president "look bad'.

True patriots.

Yup.. I think we ought to bury are heads in the sand in regards to the dismal economy..

I mean .. I wouldn't want Obama to "look bad'....

 

[CaféAuLait]

And by not raising the Debt Ceiling..something they did 19 times during the Bush administration, Conservatives are assuring the collapse of the American Economy to make a sitting president "look bad'.

True patriots.

From Sen. Obama’s Floor Speech, March 20, 2006

The fact that we are here today to debate raising America's debt limit is a sign of leadership failure. ... to tolerate an increase that would bring the debt ceiling to $9 trillion.

~~ Barack Obama


Senator Barack Obama Explaining his 2006 Vote Against Raising the Debt Limit - By Andrew C. McCarthy - The Corner - National Review Online

PolitiFact | Bachmann said Obama voted against the debt limit when he was a senator

 

[editec]

And by not raising the Debt Ceiling..something they did 19 times during the Bush administration, Conservatives are assuring the collapse of the American Economy to make a sitting president "look bad'.

True patriots.

From Sen. Obama’s Floor Speech, March 20, 2006

The fact that we are here today to debate raising America's debt limit is a sign of leadership failure. ... to tolerate an increase that would bring the debt ceiling to $9 trillion.

~~ Barack Obama


Senator Barack Obama Explaining his 2006 Vote Against Raising the Debt Limit - By Andrew C. McCarthy - The Corner - National Review Online

PolitiFact | Bachmann said Obama voted against the debt limit when he was a senator

The proposed REPUBLUCAN BUDGET will ASLO demand an increase in the DEBT LIMIT.

Pay attention, partisan.

 

[Mr. Shaman]

Gary Shilling: Recession Will Return Next Year

Same guy who predicted the last recession.....

ooooooooooooooooooooo....and, he's a star independent economist!!

Never heard o' him....

 

[Mr. Shaman]

I predicted the last recession. and have said all along that it ould be a long adjustment downward, not just a regular recession....

Where?



Point-out the site/location where you made such a prediction.​

 

[Mr. Shaman]

return? When did it leave?

Sallow, if you think raising the debt ceilling isnt as dangerous to the economy right now, you are dreaming. We are between a rock and a hard place. Whether we raise it or not, we have serious financial problems.

Do you purposely try to say nothing??

​

 

[Mr. Shaman]

And by not raising the Debt Ceiling..something they did 19 times during the Bush administration, Conservatives are assuring the collapse of the American Economy to make a sitting president "look bad'.

True patriots.

Yup.. I think we ought to bury are heads in the sand in regards to the dismal economy..

I mean .. I wouldn't want Obama to "look bad'....

Yeah....how risky (it is) for Teabaggers to adopt the option....

....that WORKS....

....and, make your boy (Lil' Dumbya) look WORSE!!!


​

 

[The Rabbi]

And by not raising the Debt Ceiling..something they did 19 times during the Bush administration, Conservatives are assuring the collapse of the American Economy to make a sitting president "look bad'.

True patriots.

From Sen. Obama&#8217;s Floor Speech, March 20, 2006

The fact that we are here today to debate raising America's debt limit is a sign of leadership failure. ... to tolerate an increase that would bring the debt ceiling to $9 trillion.

~~ Barack Obama


Senator Barack Obama Explaining his 2006 Vote Against Raising the Debt Limit - By Andrew C. McCarthy - The Corner - National Review Online

PolitiFact | Bachmann said Obama voted against the debt limit when he was a senator

The proposed REPUBLUCAN BUDGET will ASLO demand an increase in the DEBT LIMIT.

Pay attention, partisan.

In exchange for large cuts, which will make additional increases unnecessary.
What does the Democratic plan do?
Oh yeah, there is no Democratic plan.

The Democrats are already on record against voting for an increase in the debt ceiling.

 

[uscitizen]

I predicted the last recession. and have said all along that it ould be a long adjustment downward, not just a regular recession....

Where?



Point-out the site/location where you made such a prediction.​

Justplainpolitics.com and before that Politics.com. which closed and reopened with a new format and data gone.
It is there and there is one or two on here who were there and may remember. Care for one.
It is there i archives. I also predicted to a T how Iraq would turn out before it was invaded.

The right wingers became insufferable when I was proven right.
Thry had kept up with the just another 6 months and what recession the mall parking lots are full, etc.

 

[sealybobo]

Gary Shilling: Recession Will Return Next Year

&#8220;I&#8217;m predicting another recession next year,&#8221; he told MarketWatch. It&#8217;s not a double-dip recession, because 3 ½ years already have passed since the last recession began in December 2007 (it ended in June 2009), he says.


In the past, severe recessions &#8211; this was the worst since the 1930s &#8211; were followed by sharp rebounds. But this time around the recovery has been &#8220;distinctly subpar,&#8221; Shilling says.

&#8220;As of the first quarter, real GDP is barely above its peak in the fourth quarter of 2007, whereas earlier recoveries were well above their previous tops 13 quarters later,&#8221; he writes in a recent edition of his newsletter, Insight.

The housing sector is particularly weak, Shilling says. He predicts another 20 percent plunge for home prices by 2013, when we finally hit bottom.

Read more: Gary Shilling: Recession Will Return Next Year

Gary Shilling: Recession Will Return Next Year

Same guy who predicted the last recession, which seems to have never ended but has if you go by NBER's technical definition.

Boy was he wrong.