feeling grimmer about obama chances today

[buckeye45_73]

of course you appreciate decker. he's fos.

Jillian based on what? He didnt say Obama was going to win? Jillian, we've talked and discussed things....I dont get involved with petty shit like that, unless the dipshit starts it.....He stated an opinon and you liberals jump on him for what?????

Hey wait!!!


decker said Obama 'can't' win and then after being hounded and called on his crap agreed with some mod or admin that it would maybe be too close to call or something like that,.

problem is decker said Obama "can't" win and most polls don't even say that.

Dante I think OBama is a goner....ok, it comes from knowing politics, working in campaigns and looking at their campaigns...Obama is using words like bullshit in a news article?, teen girls in a sexual way in campaigns, and talking about stupid shit like Big Bird, binders, and crap. Some of his voters have thought and are voting for Romney, Johnson, Stein, whoever, but the retards that support this adminstration are unbelievable

Has he had a press conference on Libya, or ANYTHING? I remember seeing Reagan, Bush, Clinton, and Bush do conferences and then an address to the nation after a major issue, Obama hasnt done any of these things, he should have had a presidential address to say we are looking for these jerks and we dont have information...but instead he just tossed out some bullshit video excuse.....

 

[blackhawk]

with gallup poll increasing romney lead, abc with romney in the leaed bad enough but in the
uk guardian newspaper they said that obama could be trouble in pa as the sentator their is behind in his race which could impact on obama. They also said wi is gettting more dominant romney buys then obama

I know nv looking ok for obama but getting sense that even if he wins ohio it won,t be enough in the end

i know nate sliver confident but just sense he off bit time here.

Some of the left seems to be quoting Nate Sliver a lot but what I have found out is the only other election polling he has done was for the 2008 election and no offense to Nate but with how unpopular Bush was and the economic crisis going on at the time predicting those outcomes was no great feat.

 

[courseofhistory]

Don't Worry!

Election Forecast (approx 50% O 44% R)

The Election Forecast provides our best forecast of the popular vote based on the responses that panelists provided in the past week. The gray band indicates if the difference between the estimates for the two candidates is statistically significant. If the lines for Obama and Romney lie outside the gray band, then with at least 95-percent confidence we can say that one candidate would win the election if on election day the citizens vote as they now anticipate. It is important to note that if the lines are within the gray band then the observed differences may be due to chance.

It is also important to note that the predictions combine the percent chance of voting for a candidate with the percent chance that a respondent will actually vote. For example, if someone says in response to the first question that he or she has a 50-percent chance of actually voting, then this person's response to the question of who they will vote for gets a “weight” of 50 percent in the calculation of our prediction (which is then further weighted by the percent chance that he or she says that they are likely to vote for their chosen candidate).

Why This Poll Is Different

First, it allows us to ask the same people for their opinion repeatedly over time. In comparison to most polls, this leads to much more stable outcomes; changes that we see are true changes in people's opinions and not the result of random fluctuations in who gets asked the questions.

Second, we may be more accurately capturing the likely votes of a greater number of voters in the crucial “middle” (i.e., not closely aligned with either candidate) by allowing respondents to more precisely assign their own numerical probability (or percent chance) to both the likelihood that they will vote and the likelihood that they will vote for a particular candidate. By comparison, traditional polls may not be fully capturing the intentions of these voters because they rely on less precise qualitative metrics (such as somewhat likely and somewhat unlikely) when asking respondents to indicate for whom they may vote and the likelihood that they will vote.

Read more at link for more details:

LINK

 

[courseofhistory]

Nate Silver 538 As of 6:01 PM 10/26/12

Obama 295.4 EV

Obama chance of winning 74.4%

LINK

Princeton Election Consortium

As of October 26, 8:02PM EDT:
Obama: 297
Romney: 241
Meta-margin: Obama +1.96%

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

with gallup poll increasing romney lead, abc with romney in the leaed bad enough but in the
uk guardian newspaper they said that obama could be trouble in pa as the sentator their is behind in his race which could impact on obama. They also said wi is gettting more dominant romney buys then obama

I know nv looking ok for obama but getting sense that even if he wins ohio it won,t be enough in the end

i know nate sliver confident but just sense he off bit time here.

Some of the left seems to be quoting Nate Sliver a lot but what I have found out is the only other election polling he has done was for the 2008 election and no offense to Nate but with how unpopular Bush was and the economic crisis going on at the time predicting those outcomes was no great feat.

Idiot!

you don't even know how to use search engines?

The accuracy of his November 2008 presidential election predictions—he correctly predicted the winner of 49 of the 50 states—won Silver further attention and commendation. The only state he missed was Indiana, which went for Barack Obama by 1%. He also correctly predicted the winner of all 35 Senate races that year.

In April 2009, he was named one of The World's 100 Most Influential People by Time.[4] Nate Silver - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

pathetic

or maybe it is reading and comprehension?

Nathaniel Read "Nate" Silver (born January 13, 1978) is an American statistician, sabermetrician, psephologist, and writer. Silver first gained public recognition for developing PECOTA,[2] a system for forecasting the performance and career development of Major League Baseball players, which he sold to and then managed for Baseball Prospectus from 2003 to 2009.[3]

.

At the same time, he continued making forecasts of the 2008 Democratic primary elections. That several of his forecasts based on demographic analysis proved to be substantially more accurate than those of the professional pollsters gained visibility and professional credibility for "Poblano".[43]

After the North Carolina and Indiana primaries on May 6 the popularity of FiveThirtyEight.com really exploded. Silver recalls the scenario: 'I know the polls show it's really tight in NC, but we think Obama is going to win by thirteen, fourteen points, and he did.... Any time you make a prediction like that people give you probably too much credit for it...

 

[Charles_Main]

Gallup came out today with it's polling on Party Demographics for this Election. It's very bad news for Democrats. They are saying, as Rass has been saying. That unlike in 08 when Dems came out by 7 points more than Republicans (the same amount Obama won by) this time around Republicans will actually come out plus 4 over Democrats. That is an 11 point swing and means every poll you are seeing right now is off and is showing things much better for Obama than they really are. If all these polls were sampling even just an even amount of Dems to Republicans Romney would be way ahead in all of them. Let alone if it actually turns out to be Republicans plus 4.

I predict a lot of very unhappy Democrats on this board on nov 7th.

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

Gallup came out today with it's polling on Party Demographics for this Election. It's very bad news for Democrats. They are saying, as Rass has been saying. That unlike in 08 when Dems came out by 7 points more than Republicans (the same amount Obama won by) this time around Republicans will actually come out plus 4 over Democrats. That is an 11 point swing and means every poll you are seeing right now is off and is showing things much better for Obama than they really are. If all these polls were sampling even just an even amount of Dems to Republicans Romney would be way ahead in all of them. Let alone if it actually turns out to be Republicans plus 4.

I predict a lot of very unhappy Democrats on this board on nov 7th.

Dante is not a Democrat so he'll not be unhappy. Why would a loss by the President be as bad for others as you think a loss by Romney would be for you? What is up with all this alarmist fear coming out of you people?

It's about a few states. Sorry to burst your 'happy' bubble, but the odds still favor the President winning the election.

 

[Cheddarmelon]

with gallup poll increasing romney lead, abc with romney in the leaed bad enough but in the
uk guardian newspaper they said that obama could be trouble in pa as the sentator their is behind in his race which could impact on obama. They also said wi is gettting more dominant romney buys then obama

I know nv looking ok for obama but getting sense that even if he wins ohio it won,t be enough in the end

i know nate sliver confident but just sense he off bit time here.

Some of the left seems to be quoting Nate Sliver a lot but what I have found out is the only other election polling he has done was for the 2008 election and no offense to Nate but with how unpopular Bush was and the economic crisis going on at the time predicting those outcomes was no great feat.

Except that he hit 49 of 50 states with his projection model.

 

[blackhawk]

with gallup poll increasing romney lead, abc with romney in the leaed bad enough but in the
uk guardian newspaper they said that obama could be trouble in pa as the sentator their is behind in his race which could impact on obama. They also said wi is gettting more dominant romney buys then obama

I know nv looking ok for obama but getting sense that even if he wins ohio it won,t be enough in the end

i know nate sliver confident but just sense he off bit time here.

Some of the left seems to be quoting Nate Sliver a lot but what I have found out is the only other election polling he has done was for the 2008 election and no offense to Nate but with how unpopular Bush was and the economic crisis going on at the time predicting those outcomes was no great feat.

Idiot!

you don't even know how to use search engines?

pathetic

or maybe it is reading and comprehension?

Nathaniel Read "Nate" Silver (born January 13, 1978) is an American statistician, sabermetrician, psephologist, and writer. Silver first gained public recognition for developing PECOTA,[2] a system for forecasting the performance and career development of Major League Baseball players, which he sold to and then managed for Baseball Prospectus from 2003 to 2009.[3]

.

At the same time, he continued making forecasts of the 2008 Democratic primary elections. That several of his forecasts based on demographic analysis proved to be substantially more accurate than those of the professional pollsters gained visibility and professional credibility for "Poblano".[43]

After the North Carolina and Indiana primaries on May 6 the popularity of FiveThirtyEight.com really exploded. Silver recalls the scenario: 'I know the polls show it's really tight in NC, but we think Obama is going to win by thirteen, fourteen points, and he did.... Any time you make a prediction like that people give you probably too much credit for it...

Wikipedia that is your great source of information a site where people can post and edit anything they want accurate or not no wonder your post are so uniformed,

 

[blackhawk]

with gallup poll increasing romney lead, abc with romney in the leaed bad enough but in the
uk guardian newspaper they said that obama could be trouble in pa as the sentator their is behind in his race which could impact on obama. They also said wi is gettting more dominant romney buys then obama

I know nv looking ok for obama but getting sense that even if he wins ohio it won,t be enough in the end

i know nate sliver confident but just sense he off bit time here.

Some of the left seems to be quoting Nate Sliver a lot but what I have found out is the only other election polling he has done was for the 2008 election and no offense to Nate but with how unpopular Bush was and the economic crisis going on at the time predicting those outcomes was no great feat.

Except that he hit 49 of 50 states with his projection model.

Yeah again given the state of things at that time the economy the disdain for Bush and the Republicans how tough a call was that? You had your solid blue and red states easy to pick and your handful of swing states which would have been pretty easy to get given the nations situation. Now if he can do that this year with two candidates so evenly matched and the swing states this close I will give him a little more credit. Just a question before I go if Nate is so great at polling how come the left did not start citing him until Romney started leading in the other polls wouldn't you want to cite him from the get go?

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

Some of the left seems to be quoting Nate Sliver a lot but what I have found out is the only other election polling he has done was for the 2008 election and no offense to Nate but with how unpopular Bush was and the economic crisis going on at the time predicting those outcomes was no great feat.

Idiot!

you don't even know how to use search engines?

pathetic

or maybe it is reading and comprehension?



.

At the same time, he continued making forecasts of the 2008 Democratic primary elections. That several of his forecasts based on demographic analysis proved to be substantially more accurate than those of the professional pollsters gained visibility and professional credibility for "Poblano".[43]

After the North Carolina and Indiana primaries on May 6 the popularity of FiveThirtyEight.com really exploded. Silver recalls the scenario: 'I know the polls show it's really tight in NC, but we think Obama is going to win by thirteen, fourteen points, and he did.... Any time you make a prediction like that people give you probably too much credit for it...

Wikipedia that is your great source of information a site where people can post and edit anything they want accurate or not no wonder your post are so uniformed,

yet you are lost on how to refute anything above posted and linked to from Wikipedia?

so you would be bringing a squirt gun to the gun fight?

okay

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

Some of the left seems to be quoting Nate Sliver a lot but what I have found out is the only other election polling he has done was for the 2008 election and no offense to Nate but with how unpopular Bush was and the economic crisis going on at the time predicting those outcomes was no great feat.

Except that he hit 49 of 50 states with his projection model.

Yeah again given the state of things at that time the economy the disdain for Bush and the Republicans how tough a call was that? You had your solid blue and red states easy to pick and your handful of swing states which would have been pretty easy to get given the nations situation. Now if he can do that this year with two candidates so evenly matched and the swing states this close I will give him a little more credit. Just a question before I go if Nate is so great at polling how come the left did not start citing him until Romney started leading in the other polls wouldn't you want to cite him from the get go?

the left? there you go again. Some of us did not vote for Obama in 2008, and who wanted to cite and link to polls and analysis far out? Oh yeah, tools like you.

next

 

[courseofhistory]

51.47% O 48.53% R EV: 281 O 257 R

As of 10/27/12 ​

 

[GuyPinestra]

Remember true Christians are not voting for a Mormon it's that simple, no one is talking about it . They are not voting obama ,they will stay home . Latinos are not voting romney .
So the numbers are deceiving .

You keep telling yourself that...

 

[courseofhistory]

Another site to follow for election polls and predictions:

​

 

[mex]

you better update your charts courseofhistory.

romney owns Fla and Va... and Oh is a dead heat.

It's ok to keep dreaming though... hope and change baby.

 

[blackhawk]

Except that he hit 49 of 50 states with his projection model.

Yeah again given the state of things at that time the economy the disdain for Bush and the Republicans how tough a call was that? You had your solid blue and red states easy to pick and your handful of swing states which would have been pretty easy to get given the nations situation. Now if he can do that this year with two candidates so evenly matched and the swing states this close I will give him a little more credit. Just a question before I go if Nate is so great at polling how come the left did not start citing him until Romney started leading in the other polls wouldn't you want to cite him from the get go?

the left? there you go again. Some of us did not vote for Obama in 2008, and who wanted to cite and link to polls and analysis far out? Oh yeah, tools like you.

next

Down to name calling now are you the final act of desperation for someone who knows they have lost the debate head back to the kiddies table little boy and leave this to the grownups.

 

[bripat9643]

Who the fuck are "Debart and Holbrook?"

51.47% O 48.53% R EV: 281 O 257 R

​

 

[bripat9643]

"Votomatic?"

Are you serious with this shit?

Another site to follow for election polls and predictions:

​

 

[mex]

who the fuck are "debart and holbrook?"

lol