Solid US retail sales give economy a boost heading into 2024

[EvilEyeFleegle]

Solid retail sales..very cool. Did we really beat an inflationary spike without Recession?
I wonder if that's a first?

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-retail-sales-beat-expectations-december-2024-01-17/

U.S. retail sales increased more than expected in December, boosted by motor vehicle and online purchases, keeping the economy on solid ground heading into the new year.
The upbeat report from the Commerce Department on Wednesday, which prompted economists to upgrade their economic growth estimates for the fourth quarter, cast further doubt on financial market expectations that the Federal Reserve would start cutting interest rates in March.
It followed data this month showing strong employment and wage gains in December as well as a pick-up in consumer prices. Fed Governor Christopher Waller on Tuesday described the economy as "doing well," which he said was giving the U.S. central bank "the flexibility to move carefully and methodically," in terms on monetary policy.
"Households have continued to weather high interest rates and October's resumption of student loan payments," said Will Compernolle, macro strategist at FHN Financial in New York. "While there are some signs of rising distress in credit card delinquencies, we see no strong evidence so far that the economy started 2024 on the verge of a downturn."

 

[airplanemechanic]

Solid retail sales..very cool. Did we really beat an inflationary spike without Recession?
I wonder if that's a first?

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-retail-sales-beat-expectations-december-2024-01-17/

U.S. retail sales increased more than expected in December, boosted by motor vehicle and online purchases, keeping the economy on solid ground heading into the new year.
The upbeat report from the Commerce Department on Wednesday, which prompted economists to upgrade their economic growth estimates for the fourth quarter, cast further doubt on financial market expectations that the Federal Reserve would start cutting interest rates in March.
It followed data this month showing strong employment and wage gains in December as well as a pick-up in consumer prices. Fed Governor Christopher Waller on Tuesday described the economy as "doing well," which he said was giving the U.S. central bank "the flexibility to move carefully and methodically," in terms on monetary policy.
"Households have continued to weather high interest rates and October's resumption of student loan payments," said Will Compernolle, macro strategist at FHN Financial in New York. "While there are some signs of rising distress in credit card delinquencies, we see no strong evidence so far that the economy started 2024 on the verge of a downturn."

I guess it is high retail sales. Everything costs more. Inflation even went up in December. Almost doubled from 2 to 3.4%. Didn't hear liberals talking about this, did you?

The Current Inflation Rate is 3.4%. Here’s Why It Matters - NerdWallet

Inflation occurs when the price of goods and services increases over time, resulting in decreased purchasing power.

www.nerdwallet.com

I spend twice as much now as I did in 2019. I don't buy twice as much, I pay twice as much.

 

[luiza]

Zero reasons to get excited

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, as a reminder, retail sales data is nominal - i.e. not adjusted for inflation. So is this just a reflection of falling gas prices and soaring food prices?

While not comparing apples and oranges, if we adjust the headline retail sales rise in 2023 for the rise in consumer prices, we see 'real' retail sales rose 2.2% YoY - obviously far better than the real-sales decline in 2022, but it was the weakest year since 2018...

 

[justoffal]

Solid retail sales..very cool. Did we really beat an inflationary spike without Recession?
I wonder if that's a first?

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-retail-sales-beat-expectations-december-2024-01-17/

U.S. retail sales increased more than expected in December, boosted by motor vehicle and online purchases, keeping the economy on solid ground heading into the new year.
The upbeat report from the Commerce Department on Wednesday, which prompted economists to upgrade their economic growth estimates for the fourth quarter, cast further doubt on financial market expectations that the Federal Reserve would start cutting interest rates in March.
It followed data this month showing strong employment and wage gains in December as well as a pick-up in consumer prices. Fed Governor Christopher Waller on Tuesday described the economy as "doing well," which he said was giving the U.S. central bank "the flexibility to move carefully and methodically," in terms on monetary policy.
"Households have continued to weather high interest rates and October's resumption of student loan payments," said Will Compernolle, macro strategist at FHN Financial in New York. "While there are some signs of rising distress in credit card delinquencies, we see no strong evidence so far that the economy started 2024 on the verge of a downturn."

Actually it's just a transfer of debt. Most of the retail sales are done on credit which more or less nullifies the economic impact.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

Most of the retail sales are done on credit

You can of course support this claim, correct?

 

[Harpy Eagle]

I spend twice as much now as I did in 2019. I don't buy twice as much, I pay twice as much.

Sucks to be you

 

[C_Clayton_Jones]

And as usual the reprehensible right wants the American people suffer for some perceived partisan gain.

 

[justoffal]

Sucks to be you

Yes "you". Being 80% of the American consuming public.

 

[justoffal]

Solid retail sales..very cool. Did we really beat an inflationary spike without Recession?
I wonder if that's a first?

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-retail-sales-beat-expectations-december-2024-01-17/

U.S. retail sales increased more than expected in December, boosted by motor vehicle and online purchases, keeping the economy on solid ground heading into the new year.
The upbeat report from the Commerce Department on Wednesday, which prompted economists to upgrade their economic growth estimates for the fourth quarter, cast further doubt on financial market expectations that the Federal Reserve would start cutting interest rates in March.
It followed data this month showing strong employment and wage gains in December as well as a pick-up in consumer prices. Fed Governor Christopher Waller on Tuesday described the economy as "doing well," which he said was giving the U.S. central bank "the flexibility to move carefully and methodically," in terms on monetary policy.
"Households have continued to weather high interest rates and October's resumption of student loan payments," said Will Compernolle, macro strategist at FHN Financial in New York. "While there are some signs of rising distress in credit card delinquencies, we see no strong evidence so far that the economy started 2024 on the verge of a downturn."

Bwahhhhhhhhhahhhhhhhahhhhhhhh....
Yep....the sales went up at the same rate as the credit card debt did. In other words nothing actually happened.