Elizabeth Warren Is Warning of a Recession. Maybe We Should Listen.

[Denizen]

The First Bankrupt is raiding Uncle Sam's till faster than he can print IOUs.

Government and corporate debt are ballooning as the manufacturing index shrinks and wages stagnate. Another $320 billion is about to be added to Federal spending further bloating the budget deficit.

Everybody is practicing profligacy as the USA is heading towards a belief in the perpetuity of free money.

Elizabeth Warren Is Warning of a Recession. Maybe We Should Listen.

Elizabeth Warren Is Warning of a Recession. Maybe We Should Listen.
By CHIP BROWNLEE
JULY 22, 20194:48 PM

In 2003, Elizabeth Warren predicted that subprime mortgage lending would lead to a big economic crash. In 2008, it came true. Now a Democratic presidential candidate, Warren is warning that another crippling economic crisis—this time fueled by rising household and corporate debt—could be on the horizon, unless we (she) take(s) swift action. “Warning lights are flashing,” the Massachusetts senator wrote in a Medium post Monday. “Whether it’s this year or next year, the odds of another economic downturn are high—and growing.”
She’s not the first presidential candidate to predict a looming recession, and she won’t be the last. Back in 2016, then-candidate Donald Trump warned of a “very massive recession” that never happened. And Ted Cruz said a stock market crash was imminent. Neither of those claims has come true. Economic alarmism from presidential candidates is about as common as it is ignored. But unlike other “predictions” based on nothing other than a dislike for the other party, Warren’s claim that she predicted the Great Recession received a “true” rating from PolitiFact. She’d been speaking about debt, risky mortgage lending practices, and the looming housing and financial crisis for years.
Warren’s campaign promises massive reforms for the U.S. economy intended to stave off a recession and improve the lives of working people. Convincing people that the economy isn’t on strong ground could prove difficult, because unemployment recently hit a 50-year low, and the majority of Americans describe the economy as “good” or “excellent.” But Warren is not alone in sounding the alarm. The New York Federal Reserve Bank’s recession probability index, one economic barometer looked to since the 1960s, broke 30 percent in July for the first time since 2009. In March, the U.S. Treasury yield curve inverted—another predictor that’s only been wrong once—for the first time since 2007. In June, consumer confidence dropped to a near-two-year low (though it rebounded slightly in July and remains pretty high). And—as Warren pointed out in her Medium essay—the U.S. manufacturing sector is already in a mild recession after its second straight quarterly decline.
Warren also points out that household debt has surpassed previous records set before the last recession in large part because of stagnant wages and increasing student loan, credit card, and auto loan debt. Corporate debt—particularly lending to companies with already high levels of debt—is snowballing, too. (Former Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen has raised similar concerns.) “I see a precarious economy that is built on debt—both household debt and corporate debt—and that is vulnerable to shocks,” Warren wrote. “And I see a number of serious shocks on the horizon that could cause our economy’s shaky foundation to crumble.” So it’s not surprising that much of Warren’s agenda lines up with her causes of concern.
Warren didn’t release any major new proposals in her essay Monday, but she did connect the most ambitious of her plans to the problems she points to in the economy. To reduce household debt, Warren has proposed raising the minimum wage to $15 an hour, banning so-called “right-to-work” laws, ensuring equal pay for women of color, and canceling up to $50,000 in student loan debt for 95 percent of the people who have it. She’s also released plans to increase access to affordable housing and to provide universal affordable childcare, policies she said would reduce costs for working families.
Three other proposals also fit within her crisis response plan: imposing rules to limit leveraged corporate lending, investing in green manufacturing, and limiting shocks to the economy by replacing “trade-war-by-tweet” with a—wait for it—“coherent” trade strategy. Oh, and she wants to ditch the debt limit altogether in favor of a system that automatically raises the debt limit to coincide with revenue and spending decisions made by Congress. (The White House and congressional Democrats are currently negotiating on raising the debt ceiling for two years. If they don’t, the government could run smack into the ceiling in September.)
Meanwhile, Warren is still battling it out against more than 20 other candidates vying for the Democratic Party’s nomination. Her warning about a possible recession comes just a week after she released another extensive plan to place new regulations on Wall Street. Ahead of next week’s Democratic debate, where recent polling placed her among the “top tier” of candidates, Warren seems to be directing her message back squarely at her favorite issues of income inequality, Wall Street, and the economy.

 

[mikegriffith1]

The First Bankrupt is raiding Uncle Sam's till faster than he can print IOUs. Government and corporate debt are ballooning as the manufacturing index shrinks and wages stagnate.

HUH????? Wages have risen by an average of nearly 3% since Trump came to office, at least 30% higher than the average increase under Obama. I've posted all the numbers with sources before. They're available in the BLS employment situation reports.

Furthermore, we've seen an explosion in manufacturing jobs under Trump the likes of which we haven't seen in some 15-20 years. Under Obama we had a net *loss* of manufacturing jobs.

 

[Bootney Lee Farnsworth]

The First Bankrupt is raiding Uncle Sam's till faster than he can print IOUs.

Government and corporate debt are ballooning as the manufacturing index shrinks and wages stagnate. Another $320 billion is about to be added to Federal spending further bloating the budget deficit.

Everybody is practicing profligacy as the USA is heading towards a belief in the perpetuity of free money.

Elizabeth Warren Is Warning of a Recession. Maybe We Should Listen.

Elizabeth Warren Is Warning of a Recession. Maybe We Should Listen.
By CHIP BROWNLEE
JULY 22, 20194:48 PM

In 2003, Elizabeth Warren predicted that subprime mortgage lending would lead to a big economic crash. In 2008, it came true. Now a Democratic presidential candidate, Warren is warning that another crippling economic crisis—this time fueled by rising household and corporate debt—could be on the horizon, unless we (she) take(s) swift action. “Warning lights are flashing,” the Massachusetts senator wrote in a Medium post Monday. “Whether it’s this year or next year, the odds of another economic downturn are high—and growing.”
She’s not the first presidential candidate to predict a looming recession, and she won’t be the last. Back in 2016, then-candidate Donald Trump warned of a “very massive recession” that never happened. And Ted Cruz said a stock market crash was imminent. Neither of those claims has come true. Economic alarmism from presidential candidates is about as common as it is ignored. But unlike other “predictions” based on nothing other than a dislike for the other party, Warren’s claim that she predicted the Great Recession received a “true” rating from PolitiFact. She’d been speaking about debt, risky mortgage lending practices, and the looming housing and financial crisis for years.
Warren’s campaign promises massive reforms for the U.S. economy intended to stave off a recession and improve the lives of working people. Convincing people that the economy isn’t on strong ground could prove difficult, because unemployment recently hit a 50-year low, and the majority of Americans describe the economy as “good” or “excellent.” But Warren is not alone in sounding the alarm. The New York Federal Reserve Bank’s recession probability index, one economic barometer looked to since the 1960s, broke 30 percent in July for the first time since 2009. In March, the U.S. Treasury yield curve inverted—another predictor that’s only been wrong once—for the first time since 2007. In June, consumer confidence dropped to a near-two-year low (though it rebounded slightly in July and remains pretty high). And—as Warren pointed out in her Medium essay—the U.S. manufacturing sector is already in a mild recession after its second straight quarterly decline.
Warren also points out that household debt has surpassed previous records set before the last recession in large part because of stagnant wages and increasing student loan, credit card, and auto loan debt. Corporate debt—particularly lending to companies with already high levels of debt—is snowballing, too. (Former Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen has raised similar concerns.) “I see a precarious economy that is built on debt—both household debt and corporate debt—and that is vulnerable to shocks,” Warren wrote. “And I see a number of serious shocks on the horizon that could cause our economy’s shaky foundation to crumble.” So it’s not surprising that much of Warren’s agenda lines up with her causes of concern.
Warren didn’t release any major new proposals in her essay Monday, but she did connect the most ambitious of her plans to the problems she points to in the economy. To reduce household debt, Warren has proposed raising the minimum wage to $15 an hour, banning so-called “right-to-work” laws, ensuring equal pay for women of color, and canceling up to $50,000 in student loan debt for 95 percent of the people who have it. She’s also released plans to increase access to affordable housing and to provide universal affordable childcare, policies she said would reduce costs for working families.
Three other proposals also fit within her crisis response plan: imposing rules to limit leveraged corporate lending, investing in green manufacturing, and limiting shocks to the economy by replacing “trade-war-by-tweet” with a—wait for it—“coherent” trade strategy. Oh, and she wants to ditch the debt limit altogether in favor of a system that automatically raises the debt limit to coincide with revenue and spending decisions made by Congress. (The White House and congressional Democrats are currently negotiating on raising the debt ceiling for two years. If they don’t, the government could run smack into the ceiling in September.)
Meanwhile, Warren is still battling it out against more than 20 other candidates vying for the Democratic Party’s nomination. Her warning about a possible recession comes just a week after she released another extensive plan to place new regulations on Wall Street. Ahead of next week’s Democratic debate, where recent polling placed her among the “top tier” of candidates, Warren seems to be directing her message back squarely at her favorite issues of income inequality, Wall Street, and the economy.

This is interesting.

Watch as people manipulate markets and the America people to cause a crash.

(See 1992 and 2008)

.

 

[fncceo]

Does she have a solution to the housing crisis?

 

[Staidhup]

Yes there will be a slowdown and possibly a recession in the future, the culprit will be sovereign debt, corporate, and personal debt,all the result of uncontrolled spending. So what?

 

[AntiTrump]

Corporate debt in the U.S. has reached $9.4 trillion—equivalent to 46% of GDP, according to the Federal Reserve, which matches the previous peak set in 2007 just before the global financial crisis erupted. Business investment, on the other hand, has remained flat despite the Trump tax cuts, which between 2016 and 2018 roughly halved the effective tax rate for companies on the S&P 500.

 

[AntiTrump]

The record low unemployment rate is also not what it seems. One key reason for low unemployment is because people are dropping out of the labor force, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. This means that many American workers, chiefly the less educated and low skilled, have become so discouraged that they have simply given up looking for a job. The economy is not creating jobs that they can fill, while companies are complaining about shortages of skilled workers. As a result, households’ finance remains extremely precarious; a shocking four in ten American adults would not be able to cover an unexpected $400 expense with cash or saving, according to research by the Federal Reserve. As troubling as these economic findings are, the fragility of the U.S. economy runs even deepe

 

[Dekster]

Of course we will have one eventually.

I will warn you that the sun will rise in the east and set in the west tomorrow. Be prepared.

 

[fncceo]

"The sky is falling! Vote for me and we can watch it together!"

-- Warren 2020

 

[AntiTrump]

Since 2009, the economy has grown by only 25%, which compares poorly against the much shorter periods of expansion in the 1980s and the 1990s, which grew by 38% and 43% respectively. Even the record low unemployment rate is also not what it seems.

 

[Denizen]

The First Bankrupt is raiding Uncle Sam's till faster than he can print IOUs.

Government and corporate debt are ballooning as the manufacturing index shrinks and wages stagnate. Another $320 billion is about to be added to Federal spending further bloating the budget deficit.

Everybody is practicing profligacy as the USA is heading towards a belief in the perpetuity of free money.

Elizabeth Warren Is Warning of a Recession. Maybe We Should Listen.

Elizabeth Warren Is Warning of a Recession. Maybe We Should Listen.
By CHIP BROWNLEE
JULY 22, 20194:48 PM

In 2003, Elizabeth Warren predicted that subprime mortgage lending would lead to a big economic crash. In 2008, it came true. Now a Democratic presidential candidate, Warren is warning that another crippling economic crisis—this time fueled by rising household and corporate debt—could be on the horizon, unless we (she) take(s) swift action. “Warning lights are flashing,” the Massachusetts senator wrote in a Medium post Monday. “Whether it’s this year or next year, the odds of another economic downturn are high—and growing.”
She’s not the first presidential candidate to predict a looming recession, and she won’t be the last. Back in 2016, then-candidate Donald Trump warned of a “very massive recession” that never happened. And Ted Cruz said a stock market crash was imminent. Neither of those claims has come true. Economic alarmism from presidential candidates is about as common as it is ignored. But unlike other “predictions” based on nothing other than a dislike for the other party, Warren’s claim that she predicted the Great Recession received a “true” rating from PolitiFact. She’d been speaking about debt, risky mortgage lending practices, and the looming housing and financial crisis for years.
Warren’s campaign promises massive reforms for the U.S. economy intended to stave off a recession and improve the lives of working people. Convincing people that the economy isn’t on strong ground could prove difficult, because unemployment recently hit a 50-year low, and the majority of Americans describe the economy as “good” or “excellent.” But Warren is not alone in sounding the alarm. The New York Federal Reserve Bank’s recession probability index, one economic barometer looked to since the 1960s, broke 30 percent in July for the first time since 2009. In March, the U.S. Treasury yield curve inverted—another predictor that’s only been wrong once—for the first time since 2007. In June, consumer confidence dropped to a near-two-year low (though it rebounded slightly in July and remains pretty high). And—as Warren pointed out in her Medium essay—the U.S. manufacturing sector is already in a mild recession after its second straight quarterly decline.
Warren also points out that household debt has surpassed previous records set before the last recession in large part because of stagnant wages and increasing student loan, credit card, and auto loan debt. Corporate debt—particularly lending to companies with already high levels of debt—is snowballing, too. (Former Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen has raised similar concerns.) “I see a precarious economy that is built on debt—both household debt and corporate debt—and that is vulnerable to shocks,” Warren wrote. “And I see a number of serious shocks on the horizon that could cause our economy’s shaky foundation to crumble.” So it’s not surprising that much of Warren’s agenda lines up with her causes of concern.
Warren didn’t release any major new proposals in her essay Monday, but she did connect the most ambitious of her plans to the problems she points to in the economy. To reduce household debt, Warren has proposed raising the minimum wage to $15 an hour, banning so-called “right-to-work” laws, ensuring equal pay for women of color, and canceling up to $50,000 in student loan debt for 95 percent of the people who have it. She’s also released plans to increase access to affordable housing and to provide universal affordable childcare, policies she said would reduce costs for working families.
Three other proposals also fit within her crisis response plan: imposing rules to limit leveraged corporate lending, investing in green manufacturing, and limiting shocks to the economy by replacing “trade-war-by-tweet” with a—wait for it—“coherent” trade strategy. Oh, and she wants to ditch the debt limit altogether in favor of a system that automatically raises the debt limit to coincide with revenue and spending decisions made by Congress. (The White House and congressional Democrats are currently negotiating on raising the debt ceiling for two years. If they don’t, the government could run smack into the ceiling in September.)
Meanwhile, Warren is still battling it out against more than 20 other candidates vying for the Democratic Party’s nomination. Her warning about a possible recession comes just a week after she released another extensive plan to place new regulations on Wall Street. Ahead of next week’s Democratic debate, where recent polling placed her among the “top tier” of candidates, Warren seems to be directing her message back squarely at her favorite issues of income inequality, Wall Street, and the economy.

This is interesting.

Watch as people manipulate markets and the America people to cause a crash.

(See 1992 and 2008)

.

Donald Trump DUI? The ship of state is heading towards the rocks.

 

[Weatherman2020]

The First Bankrupt is raiding Uncle Sam's till faster than he can print IOUs.

Government and corporate debt are ballooning as the manufacturing index shrinks and wages stagnate. Another $320 billion is about to be added to Federal spending further bloating the budget deficit.

Everybody is practicing profligacy as the USA is heading towards a belief in the perpetuity of free money.

Elizabeth Warren Is Warning of a Recession. Maybe We Should Listen.

Elizabeth Warren Is Warning of a Recession. Maybe We Should Listen.
By CHIP BROWNLEE
JULY 22, 20194:48 PM

In 2003, Elizabeth Warren predicted that subprime mortgage lending would lead to a big economic crash. In 2008, it came true. Now a Democratic presidential candidate, Warren is warning that another crippling economic crisis—this time fueled by rising household and corporate debt—could be on the horizon, unless we (she) take(s) swift action. “Warning lights are flashing,” the Massachusetts senator wrote in a Medium post Monday. “Whether it’s this year or next year, the odds of another economic downturn are high—and growing.”
She’s not the first presidential candidate to predict a looming recession, and she won’t be the last. Back in 2016, then-candidate Donald Trump warned of a “very massive recession” that never happened. And Ted Cruz said a stock market crash was imminent. Neither of those claims has come true. Economic alarmism from presidential candidates is about as common as it is ignored. But unlike other “predictions” based on nothing other than a dislike for the other party, Warren’s claim that she predicted the Great Recession received a “true” rating from PolitiFact. She’d been speaking about debt, risky mortgage lending practices, and the looming housing and financial crisis for years.
Warren’s campaign promises massive reforms for the U.S. economy intended to stave off a recession and improve the lives of working people. Convincing people that the economy isn’t on strong ground could prove difficult, because unemployment recently hit a 50-year low, and the majority of Americans describe the economy as “good” or “excellent.” But Warren is not alone in sounding the alarm. The New York Federal Reserve Bank’s recession probability index, one economic barometer looked to since the 1960s, broke 30 percent in July for the first time since 2009. In March, the U.S. Treasury yield curve inverted—another predictor that’s only been wrong once—for the first time since 2007. In June, consumer confidence dropped to a near-two-year low (though it rebounded slightly in July and remains pretty high). And—as Warren pointed out in her Medium essay—the U.S. manufacturing sector is already in a mild recession after its second straight quarterly decline.
Warren also points out that household debt has surpassed previous records set before the last recession in large part because of stagnant wages and increasing student loan, credit card, and auto loan debt. Corporate debt—particularly lending to companies with already high levels of debt—is snowballing, too. (Former Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen has raised similar concerns.) “I see a precarious economy that is built on debt—both household debt and corporate debt—and that is vulnerable to shocks,” Warren wrote. “And I see a number of serious shocks on the horizon that could cause our economy’s shaky foundation to crumble.” So it’s not surprising that much of Warren’s agenda lines up with her causes of concern.
Warren didn’t release any major new proposals in her essay Monday, but she did connect the most ambitious of her plans to the problems she points to in the economy. To reduce household debt, Warren has proposed raising the minimum wage to $15 an hour, banning so-called “right-to-work” laws, ensuring equal pay for women of color, and canceling up to $50,000 in student loan debt for 95 percent of the people who have it. She’s also released plans to increase access to affordable housing and to provide universal affordable childcare, policies she said would reduce costs for working families.
Three other proposals also fit within her crisis response plan: imposing rules to limit leveraged corporate lending, investing in green manufacturing, and limiting shocks to the economy by replacing “trade-war-by-tweet” with a—wait for it—“coherent” trade strategy. Oh, and she wants to ditch the debt limit altogether in favor of a system that automatically raises the debt limit to coincide with revenue and spending decisions made by Congress. (The White House and congressional Democrats are currently negotiating on raising the debt ceiling for two years. If they don’t, the government could run smack into the ceiling in September.)
Meanwhile, Warren is still battling it out against more than 20 other candidates vying for the Democratic Party’s nomination. Her warning about a possible recession comes just a week after she released another extensive plan to place new regulations on Wall Street. Ahead of next week’s Democratic debate, where recent polling placed her among the “top tier” of candidates, Warren seems to be directing her message back squarely at her favorite issues of income inequality, Wall Street, and the economy.

The market goes up, then it goes down. Her prediction is like the direction of the sunrise tomorrow.

 

[Staidhup]

Unemployment numbers are secondary to labor participation rate, 62.9-63% is about as high one can expect considering baby boomers retiring early and the voluntary unemployed. Available jobs continue to outnumber the number of unemployed.

 

[LeftofLeft]

The First Bankrupt is raiding Uncle Sam's till faster than he can print IOUs.

Government and corporate debt are ballooning as the manufacturing index shrinks and wages stagnate. Another $320 billion is about to be added to Federal spending further bloating the budget deficit.

Everybody is practicing profligacy as the USA is heading towards a belief in the perpetuity of free money.

Elizabeth Warren Is Warning of a Recession. Maybe We Should Listen.

Elizabeth Warren Is Warning of a Recession. Maybe We Should Listen.
By CHIP BROWNLEE
JULY 22, 20194:48 PM

In 2003, Elizabeth Warren predicted that subprime mortgage lending would lead to a big economic crash. In 2008, it came true. Now a Democratic presidential candidate, Warren is warning that another crippling economic crisis—this time fueled by rising household and corporate debt—could be on the horizon, unless we (she) take(s) swift action. “Warning lights are flashing,” the Massachusetts senator wrote in a Medium post Monday. “Whether it’s this year or next year, the odds of another economic downturn are high—and growing.”
She’s not the first presidential candidate to predict a looming recession, and she won’t be the last. Back in 2016, then-candidate Donald Trump warned of a “very massive recession” that never happened. And Ted Cruz said a stock market crash was imminent. Neither of those claims has come true. Economic alarmism from presidential candidates is about as common as it is ignored. But unlike other “predictions” based on nothing other than a dislike for the other party, Warren’s claim that she predicted the Great Recession received a “true” rating from PolitiFact. She’d been speaking about debt, risky mortgage lending practices, and the looming housing and financial crisis for years.
Warren’s campaign promises massive reforms for the U.S. economy intended to stave off a recession and improve the lives of working people. Convincing people that the economy isn’t on strong ground could prove difficult, because unemployment recently hit a 50-year low, and the majority of Americans describe the economy as “good” or “excellent.” But Warren is not alone in sounding the alarm. The New York Federal Reserve Bank’s recession probability index, one economic barometer looked to since the 1960s, broke 30 percent in July for the first time since 2009. In March, the U.S. Treasury yield curve inverted—another predictor that’s only been wrong once—for the first time since 2007. In June, consumer confidence dropped to a near-two-year low (though it rebounded slightly in July and remains pretty high). And—as Warren pointed out in her Medium essay—the U.S. manufacturing sector is already in a mild recession after its second straight quarterly decline.
Warren also points out that household debt has surpassed previous records set before the last recession in large part because of stagnant wages and increasing student loan, credit card, and auto loan debt. Corporate debt—particularly lending to companies with already high levels of debt—is snowballing, too. (Former Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen has raised similar concerns.) “I see a precarious economy that is built on debt—both household debt and corporate debt—and that is vulnerable to shocks,” Warren wrote. “And I see a number of serious shocks on the horizon that could cause our economy’s shaky foundation to crumble.” So it’s not surprising that much of Warren’s agenda lines up with her causes of concern.
Warren didn’t release any major new proposals in her essay Monday, but she did connect the most ambitious of her plans to the problems she points to in the economy. To reduce household debt, Warren has proposed raising the minimum wage to $15 an hour, banning so-called “right-to-work” laws, ensuring equal pay for women of color, and canceling up to $50,000 in student loan debt for 95 percent of the people who have it. She’s also released plans to increase access to affordable housing and to provide universal affordable childcare, policies she said would reduce costs for working families.
Three other proposals also fit within her crisis response plan: imposing rules to limit leveraged corporate lending, investing in green manufacturing, and limiting shocks to the economy by replacing “trade-war-by-tweet” with a—wait for it—“coherent” trade strategy. Oh, and she wants to ditch the debt limit altogether in favor of a system that automatically raises the debt limit to coincide with revenue and spending decisions made by Congress. (The White House and congressional Democrats are currently negotiating on raising the debt ceiling for two years. If they don’t, the government could run smack into the ceiling in September.)
Meanwhile, Warren is still battling it out against more than 20 other candidates vying for the Democratic Party’s nomination. Her warning about a possible recession comes just a week after she released another extensive plan to place new regulations on Wall Street. Ahead of next week’s Democratic debate, where recent polling placed her among the “top tier” of candidates, Warren seems to be directing her message back squarely at her favorite issues of income inequality, Wall Street, and the economy.

What is her solution? Recessions are inevitable. What his her plan to soften it?

 

[LeeOnLido]

i really feel sorry for the 17 chipmunks trapped somewhere in her body and cant find thier way out

 

[Manonthestreet]

If there is I'm betting it starts overseas and spreads. Heard Rumblings Deutsche Bank is imploding. Add your dot.com business' that have no there, there.....

 

[easyt65]

The First Bankrupt is raiding Uncle Sam's till faster than he can print IOUs.

Government and corporate debt are ballooning as the manufacturing index shrinks and wages stagnate. Another $320 billion is about to be added to Federal spending further bloating the budget deficit.

Everybody is practicing profligacy as the USA is heading towards a belief in the perpetuity of free money.

Elizabeth Warren Is Warning of a Recession. Maybe We Should Listen.

Elizabeth Warren Is Warning of a Recession. Maybe We Should Listen.
By CHIP BROWNLEE
JULY 22, 20194:48 PM

In 2003, Elizabeth Warren predicted that subprime mortgage lending would lead to a big economic crash. In 2008, it came true. Now a Democratic presidential candidate, Warren is warning that another crippling economic crisis—this time fueled by rising household and corporate debt—could be on the horizon, unless we (she) take(s) swift action. “Warning lights are flashing,” the Massachusetts senator wrote in a Medium post Monday. “Whether it’s this year or next year, the odds of another economic downturn are high—and growing.”
She’s not the first presidential candidate to predict a looming recession, and she won’t be the last. Back in 2016, then-candidate Donald Trump warned of a “very massive recession” that never happened. And Ted Cruz said a stock market crash was imminent. Neither of those claims has come true. Economic alarmism from presidential candidates is about as common as it is ignored. But unlike other “predictions” based on nothing other than a dislike for the other party, Warren’s claim that she predicted the Great Recession received a “true” rating from PolitiFact. She’d been speaking about debt, risky mortgage lending practices, and the looming housing and financial crisis for years.
Warren’s campaign promises massive reforms for the U.S. economy intended to stave off a recession and improve the lives of working people. Convincing people that the economy isn’t on strong ground could prove difficult, because unemployment recently hit a 50-year low, and the majority of Americans describe the economy as “good” or “excellent.” But Warren is not alone in sounding the alarm. The New York Federal Reserve Bank’s recession probability index, one economic barometer looked to since the 1960s, broke 30 percent in July for the first time since 2009. In March, the U.S. Treasury yield curve inverted—another predictor that’s only been wrong once—for the first time since 2007. In June, consumer confidence dropped to a near-two-year low (though it rebounded slightly in July and remains pretty high). And—as Warren pointed out in her Medium essay—the U.S. manufacturing sector is already in a mild recession after its second straight quarterly decline.
Warren also points out that household debt has surpassed previous records set before the last recession in large part because of stagnant wages and increasing student loan, credit card, and auto loan debt. Corporate debt—particularly lending to companies with already high levels of debt—is snowballing, too. (Former Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen has raised similar concerns.) “I see a precarious economy that is built on debt—both household debt and corporate debt—and that is vulnerable to shocks,” Warren wrote. “And I see a number of serious shocks on the horizon that could cause our economy’s shaky foundation to crumble.” So it’s not surprising that much of Warren’s agenda lines up with her causes of concern.
Warren didn’t release any major new proposals in her essay Monday, but she did connect the most ambitious of her plans to the problems she points to in the economy. To reduce household debt, Warren has proposed raising the minimum wage to $15 an hour, banning so-called “right-to-work” laws, ensuring equal pay for women of color, and canceling up to $50,000 in student loan debt for 95 percent of the people who have it. She’s also released plans to increase access to affordable housing and to provide universal affordable childcare, policies she said would reduce costs for working families.
Three other proposals also fit within her crisis response plan: imposing rules to limit leveraged corporate lending, investing in green manufacturing, and limiting shocks to the economy by replacing “trade-war-by-tweet” with a—wait for it—“coherent” trade strategy. Oh, and she wants to ditch the debt limit altogether in favor of a system that automatically raises the debt limit to coincide with revenue and spending decisions made by Congress. (The White House and congressional Democrats are currently negotiating on raising the debt ceiling for two years. If they don’t, the government could run smack into the ceiling in September.)
Meanwhile, Warren is still battling it out against more than 20 other candidates vying for the Democratic Party’s nomination. Her warning about a possible recession comes just a week after she released another extensive plan to place new regulations on Wall Street. Ahead of next week’s Democratic debate, where recent polling placed her among the “top tier” of candidates, Warren seems to be directing her message back squarely at her favorite issues of income inequality, Wall Street, and the economy.

Why would anyone listen to an admitted liar and criminal who defrauded a college, stole a Native American's scholarship, never reimbursed the school for the cost of the scholarship, and continued to falsely claim minority status for personal benefit until forced to admit it years later?

 

[blackhawk]

Wow someone who wants to be President predicting bad economic news in an election cycle that has to be a first.

 

[BluesLegend]

Wow someone who wants to be President predicting bad economic news in an election cycle that has to be a first.

She's plagiarizing Obama and the Dem's 2008 campaign strategy. Just one problem, the economy is on fire its not crashing. Warren is so stupid she's a danger to herself and others.

 

[AzogtheDefiler]

Since 2009, the economy has grown by only 25%, which compares poorly against the much shorter periods of expansion in the 1980s and the 1990s, which grew by 38% and 43% respectively. Even the record low unemployment rate is also not what it seems.

Use the naked eye test. Here in Boston the traffic is horrendous and our utilities cannot keep up. Companies cannot find employees. This low unemployment is for real. At least it is in New England.