Economic REALITY thread

[The Rabbi]

I'll bet THAT wasn't the change anyone else had in mind.
HOPE we can get out of this one with our asses.

 

[Zander]

More economic reality...stocks at 7 month low.DJIA Falls Through 'Flash Crash' Low - WSJ.com

Stocks fell on Monday in a late-day selloff that took the Dow Jones Industrial Average below its lows of the May 6 "flash crash."

The Dow ended down 115.48 points, or 1.2%, at a seven-month low of 9816.49 and below 9869.62, its low-point of the May 6 slide. That day, buyers rushed into the market at that level, helping pare a 1,000-point drop to a decline of 347.80 points.

But on Monday, no such buying appeared. The Nasdaq Composite fell 2%. The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index slid 1.4%.

"Global tensions are at a pinnacle," said Mike Daly, gold specialist at PFGBest in Chicago. That has prompted investors to move money into "tangible, safer assets."'

As part of that move, gold soared, ending with its biggest one-day gain in almost four months. Gold also began the day quietly. But at around 10 a.m., a sudden wave of buying drove the metal up by 2% within an hour, pushing it toward record Comex highs reached in mid-May.

 

[Old Rocks]

Worms eye view again. We have enough orders for our mill that we are going on six day weeks. Which means that I will have only 1 day for maintenance. I am getting more overtime than I want, and working holidays again. Our primary product at present are alloys that are used in construction and machine fabrication. Still can't get them to assign me a millwright to train to replace me.

 

[Neubarth]

More economic reality...stocks at 7 month low.DJIA Falls Through 'Flash Crash' Low - WSJ.com

Stocks fell on Monday in a late-day selloff that took the Dow Jones Industrial Average below its lows of the May 6 "flash crash."

The Dow ended down 115.48 points, or 1.2%, at a seven-month low of 9816.49 and below 9869.62, its low-point of the May 6 slide. That day, buyers rushed into the market at that level, helping pare a 1,000-point drop to a decline of 347.80 points.

But on Monday, no such buying appeared. The Nasdaq Composite fell 2%. The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index slid 1.4%.

"Global tensions are at a pinnacle," said Mike Daly, gold specialist at PFGBest in Chicago. That has prompted investors to move money into "tangible, safer assets."'

As part of that move, gold soared, ending with its biggest one-day gain in almost four months. Gold also began the day quietly. But at around 10 a.m., a sudden wave of buying drove the metal up by 2% within an hour, pushing it toward record Comex highs reached in mid-May.

I suspect that Goldman Sachs wants it a lot lower. They know what they are doing.

 

[Neubarth]

I'll bet THAT wasn't the change anyone else had in mind.
HOPE we can get out of this one with our asses.

Double check the bolts on your ass just to make certain they are on there tight.

 

[The Rabbi]

Worms eye view again. We have enough orders for our mill that we are going on six day weeks. Which means that I will have only 1 day for maintenance. I am getting more overtime than I want, and working holidays again. Our primary product at present are alloys that are used in construction and machine fabrication. Still can't get them to assign me a millwright to train to replace me.

Exactly the kind of production that has been going on to restock depleted inventories. Without demand further down the pipeline it will peter out.
One of my customers is in the explosives business, primarily for construction. He tells me they see no bottom to this market.

 

[Neubarth]

Worms eye view again. We have enough orders for our mill that we are going on six day weeks. Which means that I will have only 1 day for maintenance. I am getting more overtime than I want, and working holidays again. Our primary product at present are alloys that are used in construction and machine fabrication. Still can't get them to assign me a millwright to train to replace me.

Exactly the kind of production that has been going on to restock depleted inventories. Without demand further down the pipeline it will peter out.
One of my customers is in the explosives business, primarily for construction. He tells me they see no bottom to this market.

Oh Learned Man of the Sacred Scrolls, when I see permanent jobs created by this administration, I will start looking up. Right now, I am not optimistic. People attack me just like they attack you because we point out the obvious. When are they going to learn?

 

[PixieStix]

Here is some economic reality..... Defaults and Foreclosures are at a record high.....Sorry folks, the truth is often bitter.

Mortgage delinquencies drag on economic recovery - Yahoo! Finance

ASHINGTON (AP) -- The mortgage crisis is dragging on the economic recovery as more homeowners fall behind on their payments.

Analysts expect improvement soon, but the number of homeowners in default or at risk of foreclosure will have a lingering effect on the broader economy.

More than 10 percent of homeowners with a mortgage had missed at least one payment in the January-March period, the Mortgage Bankers Association said Wednesday. That's a record high and up from 9.1 percent a year ago.

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ssl5yb7FewA]YouTube - Indymac Boys Get Sweetheart Deal[/ame]

 

[Zander]

More bad news....News Headlines

Existing Home Sales Tumble Unexpectedly in May

Sales of previously owned homes fell unexpectedly in May as delays in processing mortgage applications hampered the closing of contracts benefiting from a popular homebuyer tax credit, an industry group said on Tuesday.

AP

The National Association of Realtors said sales fell 2.2 percent month over month to an annual rate of 5.66 million units from an upwardly revised 5.79 million-unit pace in April.

Analysts polled by Reuters expected May sales to rise 5.5 percent to a 6.12 million-unit pace from the previously reported 5.77 million units in April. Sales were up 19.2 percent compared to May last year.

Sales were expected to rise as transactions for existing homes are measured at contract closing.

Although the tax credit for home buyers expired in April, qualified home owners have until June 30 to close contracts.

There hasn't been much of a rebound in housing.

 

[Zander]

The bad news just keeps coming. Even Tax Cheater Timothy Geithner admits the economy is in the shitter and likely to get worse before it gets better.

US economy still in 'difficult period': Geithner

US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner on Tuesday said the US economy was "still going through an incredibly difficult period," as he warned the impact of the crisis would be "lasting."

"Millions of Americans are still looking for work and are suffering from the damage of a deep recession. The impact of this crisis will be lasting," he said in prepared testimony to Congress.

I am hoping for the best, but preparing for the worst. I suggest you do the same.

 

[Zander]

More Economic REALITY.....New home sales at record low as tax credit expires - Yahoo! Finance

Sales of new homes dropped a record 32.7 percent in May to the lowest level in at least four decades as the boost from a popular tax credit faded, adding to worries of a slowing economic recovery.

The Commerce Department said on Wednesday single-family home sales tumbled to a 300,000 unit annual rate, the lowest level since the series started in 1963.

The expiry of the tax incentive has also resulted in a decline in new home construction and demand for home loans applications for loans to buy homes fell last week, staying near 13-year lows.

Last month's weak sales pace saw the supply of homes available for sale jumping a record 46.6 percent to 8.5 months' worth, the highest in nearly a year, from 5.8 months' worth in April. However, the number of new homes on the market dipped 0.5 percent to 213,000 units, the lowest since November 1970.

The median sale price for a new home fell 1 percent in May from April to $200,900. In the 12 months to May, prices fell 9.6 percent, the largest decline since July 200

Why would anyone buy a new home today, when it will be cheaper in the future? Deflation....it's a bitch.

 

[topspin]

sell sell sell,
I'm buying the economy is going to boom

 

[topspin]

More Economic REALITY.....New home sales at record low as tax credit expires - Yahoo! Finance

Sales of new homes dropped a record 32.7 percent in May to the lowest level in at least four decades as the boost from a popular tax credit faded, adding to worries of a slowing economic recovery.

The Commerce Department said on Wednesday single-family home sales tumbled to a 300,000 unit annual rate, the lowest level since the series started in 1963.

The expiry of the tax incentive has also resulted in a decline in new home construction and demand for home loans applications for loans to buy homes fell last week, staying near 13-year lows.

Last month's weak sales pace saw the supply of homes available for sale jumping a record 46.6 percent to 8.5 months' worth, the highest in nearly a year, from 5.8 months' worth in April. However, the number of new homes on the market dipped 0.5 percent to 213,000 units, the lowest since November 1970.

The median sale price for a new home fell 1 percent in May from April to $200,900. In the 12 months to May, prices fell 9.6 percent, the largest decline since July 200

Why would anyone buy a new home today, when it will be cheaper in the future? Deflation....it's a bitch.

don't fight the fed 4.6 on 30 mortgage will sell those shitty houses

 

[The Rabbi]

sell sell sell,
I'm buying the economy is going to boom

So where are you investing your quarter?

 

[Toro]

sell sell sell,
I'm buying the economy is going to boom

Depends on your time frame. The next few years could be rough but there are parts of the real estate market that are staggeringly cheap.

Personally, I'm hoping for another leg down and the banks have to puke out another round of properties.

Further, since I live in the Florida Panhandle, I'm hoping the oil slick slams onto our beaches because I'm looking at beachfront property and I want to see it collapse!

 

[william the wie]

sell sell sell,
I'm buying the economy is going to boom

Depends on your time frame. The next few years could be rough but there are parts of the real estate market that are staggeringly cheap.

Personally, I'm hoping for another leg down and the banks have to puke out another round of properties.

Further, since I live in the Florida Panhandle, I'm hoping the oil slick slams onto our beaches because I'm looking at beachfront property and I want to see it collapse!

Don't know if it is still true but I hear it still is: 25% discount for cash on repos. Flippers can drop the fair market value by 10%/qtr for a 13% annualized profit. With 90% leverage and 6% for 10 year money my guess is around 62.5% return after debt service. Just don't get greedy when the returns go below 50% in a given real estate market pull in your horns because that is the point when that market is ready to collapse back to 1988 prices.

 

[Neubarth]

sell sell sell,
I'm buying the economy is going to boom

Depends on your time frame. The next few years could be rough but there are parts of the real estate market that are staggeringly cheap.

Personally, I'm hoping for another leg down and the banks have to puke out another round of properties.

Further, since I live in the Florida Panhandle, I'm hoping the oil slick slams onto our beaches because I'm looking at beachfront property and I want to see it collapse!

Don't know if it is still true but I hear it still is: 25% discount for cash on repos. Flippers can drop the fair market value by 10%/qtr for a 13% annualized profit. With 90% leverage and 6% for 10 year money my guess is around 62.5% return after debt service. Just don't get greedy when the returns go below 50% in a given real estate market pull in your horns because that is the point when that market is ready to collapse back to 1988 prices.

At best Toro, you will see two to three percent more selling of beach front properties. Most will know that gushers, even underwater do not last for ever. Nature can quickly heal the damage from the oil. I remember as a ten year old living north of Manzanillo where my father and I used to body surf on pristine beaches every day. The only footprint on the white sand beaches would be ours from the day or days before. One day we went to our favorite beach, Olas Altas (High Waves), and it was covered with an oil slick that had washed up at high tide. About ten feet of sand for miles up and down the coast was stained black by a layer that was about one half to a third of an inch thick. It stained the sand for several days after that. It was mostly gone except for an occasional tar ball buried in the sand after four or five days. Nature does clean itself up.

As regards appreciation of property, that always comes with inflation. Unfortunately we might see some Deflation over the coming months.

 

[Old Rocks]

The economy is still in the dumps and likely to get worse. Unemployment is growing, foreclosures are increasing, the stock market is ready to tank, and our debt is skyrocketing. This thread is about the economic reality that we are facing.

Hmmm....... Now over thirty days later. Market has not tanked, just kind of gone sideways. Your prophesy license is hereby revoked.

 

[The Rabbi]

Gov't just revised downward GDP growth expectations. Market ready to tank, no one has any confidence in it (I posted this in the "Market bottom" thread some time ago).
No, it's double dip time. ANy growth we've seen is partially from the expectation of higher taxes in January.

 

[Toro]

sell sell sell,
I'm buying the economy is going to boom

Depends on your time frame. The next few years could be rough but there are parts of the real estate market that are staggeringly cheap.

Personally, I'm hoping for another leg down and the banks have to puke out another round of properties.

Further, since I live in the Florida Panhandle, I'm hoping the oil slick slams onto our beaches because I'm looking at beachfront property and I want to see it collapse!

Don't know if it is still true but I hear it still is: 25% discount for cash on repos. Flippers can drop the fair market value by 10%/qtr for a 13% annualized profit. With 90% leverage and 6% for 10 year money my guess is around 62.5% return after debt service. Just don't get greedy when the returns go below 50% in a given real estate market pull in your horns because that is the point when that market is ready to collapse back to 1988 prices.

I'm looking at a beachfront piece on the ocean for sale that has fallen by 62.5% from the peak based on the asking price. The broker says they'll go lower to a 67.5% decline. But I still think it will eventually go for 75%-80% when the bank repos it. So I'm just waiting.