Dail Kos Forecast for GOP in 2016

[deltex1]

Why not? You may be too close to see what's really happening.

I voted for Goldwater...I know what SHOULD happen.

I thought nominating a true conservative would lead to a victory, not a historic loss.

One would think so.....but then there are these low information voters....

 

[konradv]

I thought nominating a true conservative would lead to a victory, not a historic loss.

One would think so...but then there are these low information voters.

So you're saying the Republicans are screwed whether they nominate a true conservative or a moderate, like Romney or McCain? Should Hillary be putting the champagne on ice already?

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

Wisconsin, Illinois, Ohio, PA, Florida, New Hampshire all have Republican senators who probably aren't going to survive if the Democrats take the White House.

Unless it's a wave it's highly unlikely all six of them are going to lose. With the exception of Illinois they are all swing states and there is nothing uncommon about a state electing a president of one party and reelecting their Senator and members of Congress of another at the same time.

 

[Antares]

Wisconsin, Illinois, Ohio, PA, Florida, New Hampshire all have Republican senators who probably aren't going to survive if the Democrats take the White House.

Unless it's a wave it's highly unlikely all six of them are going to lose. With the exception of Illinois they are all swing states and there is nothing uncommon about a state electing a president of one party and reelecting their Senator and members of Congress of another at the same time.

Don't piss on Joe's wet dream.

 

[JoeB131]

Joe just when I'm about to put you on ignore you come up with a smart statement.
Yes, I suspect the establishemnt GOP will want a sure thing and push for Jeb. With any luck the party base will reject this Dole/McCain/Romney wing candidate and go for a real conservative like Walker or Perry, who will of course beat the shit out of the left wing nutjob the Dems pick.

Rabbid, please put me on ignore. I really don't want to talk to you, anyway.

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

Joe just when I'm about to put you on ignore you come up with a smart statement.
Yes, I suspect the establishemnt GOP will want a sure thing and push for Jeb. With any luck the party base will reject this Dole/McCain/Romney wing candidate and go for a real conservative like Walker or Perry, who will of course beat the shit out of the left wing nutjob the Dems pick.

I would never vote for Rick Perry. Walker, maybe. It depends.

 

[deltex1]

I thought nominating a true conservative would lead to a victory, not a historic loss.

One would think so...but then there are these low information voters.

So you're saying the Republicans are screwed whether they nominate a true conservative or a moderate, like Romney or McCain? Should Hillary be putting the champagne on ice already?

I think conservatism will win in the end. I worry most about foreign policy....we have been floundering for decades. Time to man up. Time to take a stand. Time to deal severly with our enemies.

 

[JoeB131]

Unless it's a wave it's highly unlikely all six of them are going to lose. With the exception of Illinois they are all swing states and there is nothing uncommon about a state electing a president of one party and reelecting their Senator and members of Congress of another at the same time.

But I think it probably is going to be a wave, that's my point. I know Kirk is dead meat, I don't even think that fool is running again. (He hasn't been the same since the stroke.)

Wisconsin and PA are hardly "Swing States". Republicans haven't won them on a presidential level since 1984 and 1988, respectively.

 

[JoeB131]

Joe, I too am close to putting you on ignore and here you go making sense for once.

Where's the real Joe and what did you do with him?

I think the Bush name is as toxic and has as much baggage as brand Clinton. If the Rs run another Bush, it'll be like the Dole candidacy all over again. I never put it past the Rs to screw up a political campaign or messaging.

Guy, like I said to rabbid, please put me on ignore. YOu are really not a smart conservative and not someone I would really want to waste excessive time slapping down.

But, yeah, actually, I think the GOP establishment will run Bush. As toxic as his brand name is, he's all you got.

 

[JoeB131]

Joe just when I'm about to put you on ignore you come up with a smart statement.
Yes, I suspect the establishemnt GOP will want a sure thing and push for Jeb. With any luck the party base will reject this Dole/McCain/Romney wing candidate and go for a real conservative like Walker or Perry, who will of course beat the shit out of the left wing nutjob the Dems pick.

I would never vote for Rick Perry. Walker, maybe. It depends.

Except for his anti-working people policies, i kind of like Walker.

However, America is not going elect a man who never achieved a college degree in this day and age.

Perry is an idiot. He beclowned himself in 2012 and will never be able to correct that.

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

Unless it's a wave it's highly unlikely all six of them are going to lose. With the exception of Illinois they are all swing states and there is nothing uncommon about a state electing a president of one party and reelecting their Senator and members of Congress of another at the same time.

But I think it probably is going to be a wave, that's my point.

What do you base that on? There is absolutely no indication whatsoever that will be the case and it's far too early to tell anyway.

I know Kirk is dead meat, I don't even think that fool is running again. (He hasn't been the same since the stroke.)

Kirk may not run again due his health reasons, but if he does I suspect he'll survive. He's the kind of blue state Republican that tends to get reelected, like Collins in Maine. A lot of it will depend on who his opponent is.

Wisconsin and PA are hardly "Swing States". Republicans haven't won them on a presidential level since 1984 and 1988, respectively.

They are both very much swing states. Both have Republican controlled state legislatures, a majority Republican Congressional delegation, until this past election both had GOP governors and they hold most statewide offices. While they haven't voted for the GOP for the presidential race in a while both states have remained very much in play and have come close in a few elections. Wisconsin has slowly been trending more Republican. Pennsylvania has pretty much remained the same. Pennsylvania voted Democratic for president while repeatedly reelecting Santorum and Specter for Senate at the same time. Santorum finally lost in a midterm election which resulted in a wave favoring the opposite party, much like what just happened to Landrieu and Pryor down south this year. Snowe and Collins were repeatedly reelected in Maine while the state went Democratic for president. Same with Democrats Dorgan, Conrad, and Johnson in the Dakotas while the states went heavily GOP for president.

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

Joe just when I'm about to put you on ignore you come up with a smart statement.
Yes, I suspect the establishemnt GOP will want a sure thing and push for Jeb. With any luck the party base will reject this Dole/McCain/Romney wing candidate and go for a real conservative like Walker or Perry, who will of course beat the shit out of the left wing nutjob the Dems pick.

I would never vote for Rick Perry. Walker, maybe. It depends.

Except for his anti-working people policies, i kind of like Walker.

However, America is not going elect a man who never achieved a college degree in this day and age.

Why wouldn't they and what evidence of that do you have?

 

[deltex1]

Joe just when I'm about to put you on ignore you come up with a smart statement.
Yes, I suspect the establishemnt GOP will want a sure thing and push for Jeb. With any luck the party base will reject this Dole/McCain/Romney wing candidate and go for a real conservative like Walker or Perry, who will of course beat the shit out of the left wing nutjob the Dems pick.

I would never vote for Rick Perry. Walker, maybe. It depends.

Except for his anti-working people policies, i kind of like Walker.

However, America is not going elect a man who never achieved a college degree in this day and age.

Perry is an idiot. He beclowned himself in 2012 and will never be able to correct that.

You mean like Bill Gates or Steve Jobs?

 

[Antares]

Unless it's a wave it's highly unlikely all six of them are going to lose. With the exception of Illinois they are all swing states and there is nothing uncommon about a state electing a president of one party and reelecting their Senator and members of Congress of another at the same time.

But I think it probably is going to be a wave, that's my point.

What do you base that on? There is absolutely no indication whatsoever that will be the case and it's far too early to tell anyway.

I know Kirk is dead meat, I don't even think that fool is running again. (He hasn't been the same since the stroke.)

Kirk may not run again due his health reasons, but if he does I suspect he'll survive. He's the kind of blue state Republican that tends to get reelected, like Collins in Maine. A lot of it will depend on who his opponent is.

Wisconsin and PA are hardly "Swing States". Republicans haven't won them on a presidential level since 1984 and 1988, respectively.

They are both very much swing states. Both have Republican controlled state legislatures, a majority Republican Congressional delegation, until this past election both had GOP governors and they hold most statewide offices. While they haven't voted for the GOP for the presidential race in a while both states have remained very much in play and have come close in a few elections. Wisconsin has slowly been trending more Republican. Pennsylvania has pretty much remained the same. Pennsylvania voted Democratic for president while repeatedly reelecting Santorum and Specter for Senate at the same time. Santorum finally lost in a midterm election which resulted in a wave favoring the opposite party, much like what just happened to Landrieu and Pryor down south this year. Snowe and Collins were repeatedly reelected in Maine while the state went Democratic for president. Same with Democrats Dorgan, Conrad, and Johnson in the Dakotas while the states went heavily GOP for president.

He bases it solely upon his hatred for Repubs, there is no reason in the world to think it will be a wave for anyone at this point.

 

[Toro]

Wisconsin, Illinois, Ohio, PA, Florida, New Hampshire all have Republican senators who probably aren't going to survive if the Democrats take the White House.

Rubio will probably be reelected even when Hillary wins.

Bush will beat Hillary in Florida if he is the nominee.

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

Wisconsin, Illinois, Ohio, PA, Florida, New Hampshire all have Republican senators who probably aren't going to survive if the Democrats take the White House.

Rubio will probably be reelected even when Hillary wins.

Bush will beat Hillary in Florida if he is the nominee.

What makes you so sure Hillary will be the nominee? Furthermore, what makes you so sure she'll win even if she is?

 

[JoeB131]

Kirk may not run again due his health reasons, but if he does I suspect he'll survive. He's the kind of blue state Republican that tends to get reelected, like Collins in Maine. A lot of it will depend on who his opponent is.

NO, actually, I don't. I saw him on Fox News recently, and even though the so-called "Journalist" was throwing him softball questions, he was still slow and disjointed on his answers.

Also, a lot of republicans in the state like batshit crazy Joe Walsh are screaming to primary him.

They are both very much swing states. Both have Republican controlled state legislatures, a majority Republican Congressional delegation, until this past election both had GOP governors and they hold most statewide offices.

Which is a good argument to get rid of midterms, but it's not an argument these are "swing states".

 

[JoeB131]

He bases it solely upon his hatred for Repubs, there is no reason in the world to think it will be a wave for anyone at this point.

Actually, there's a lot of good reasons.

First, your primary is going to be pretty fucking contentious. Your candidates barely break double digits at this point. Even the Weird Mormon Robot had 25% support pretty consistantly.

Second, you are defending too many seats- the same problem the Democrats had in 2014. You have 24 seats up, and we haven't even gotten into the retirements yet. (Keep in mind, the only reason why you guys won in 2014 was the Democrats lost four vacancies they'd have won without retirements.)

Third- people are going to show up, especially when we see what assclowns are in charge of the senate right now. Rubio and Paul and Cruz all trying to one up each other. That should be fun to watch.

 

[BULLDOG]

Oh, do tell.

Nope, moron's quote kos as "authoritative".

Please do expatiate.

No need, moron's further the need to use silly words to show how big they think their dick is.

You are very angry, what? No recess time today at the Sanitarium?

I am never angry kid.....it's just the internet.

Fact, kos and HuffPo are bullshit Lefty sources, the fact that that statement bothers you tells me you a lefty wingnut.

I take it that you prefer the gospel truth you receive from fox.

 

[BULLDOG]

I thought nominating a true conservative would lead to a victory, not a historic loss.

One would think so...but then there are these low information voters.

So you're saying the Republicans are screwed whether they nominate a true conservative or a moderate, like Romney or McCain? Should Hillary be putting the champagne on ice already?

I think conservatism will win in the end. I worry most about foreign policy....we have been floundering for decades. Time to man up. Time to take a stand. Time to deal severly with our enemies.

FOR GOD'S SAKE, IT'S TIME FOR ANOTHER WAR. Republican campaign slogan.