Crude Seen Falling to $50 in 2015 as OPEC Fails to Stem Glut

[JakeStarkey]

You all should listen to me more often.

Listen to the likes of some on the Board and lose money quickly.

Crude Seen Falling to 50 in 2015 as OPEC Fails to Stem Glut - Bloomberg

If those does happen, recession time is here again for some; that will be bad in Russia and Iran; and I am curious to see if OPEC cuts production sales.

What will happen here in America is the question.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Cheaper energy....leads to recession....hmmmkay

 

[JakeStarkey]

Frank, I hope you are right.

But cheaper oil will hurt Russia and Iran, for they depend on those revenues to support their regimes.

Cheaper oil means that India, Brazil, and China are not using as much as they did.

I am hoping the fact that we are pumping 50% more oil here since your dear leader took office may make things good for America.

 

[Mr. H.]

Where is my floor price on crude?

Oh that's right. That shit is reserved for the ass-fucking farmer.

 

[waltky]

Dark clouds over the oil industry means lower gasoline prices at the pump...

U.S. crude prices drop on rising stockpiles, Japan recession fears
Tue Nov 10, 2015 - U.S. crude oil prices fell in early Asian trading on Wednesday after industry data showed an increase in U.S. stockpiles, while fears that Japan's economy may have fallen into recession added to demand woes.

Benchmark U.S. crude futures slipped to a two-week low at $43.55 a barrel and were trading down over half a dollar from their last close at $43.68 by 0003 GMT (2003 EDT). The price drop came on the back of rising stocks in North America and slowing economies in Asia.

Towers at an oil refinery in the southern Sydney suburb of Kurnell are silhouetted against a cloudy sky​

U.S. crude stocks jumped by 6.3 million barrels in the week to Nov. 6 to 486.1 million, data from industry group the American Petroleum Institute showed late on Tuesday, compared with analysts' expectations for an increase of 1 million barrels.

On the demand side, confidence among Japanese manufacturers fell in November for a third straight month to levels unseen in more than two years, a Reuters poll showed on Wednesday, reflecting fears that a China-led slowdown in overseas demand may have pushed Asia's second-biggest economy into recession. "The weakness of global manufacturing activity is ... putting pressure on energy demand," JBC Energy said, adding that it expected a significant drop in oil demand growth in 2016.

U.S. crude prices drop on rising stockpiles, Japan recession fears

 

[waltky]

Oil prices still on the downside...

Oil prices remain near two-month low, outlook stays weak
Thu Nov 12, 2015 - Oil prices struggled to break away from over two-month lows on Thursday, and the outlook remains bleak as traders ditch positions and producers hedge against lower prices despite some analysts saying market oversupply may have been overstated.

U.S. crude futures CLc1 were at $43.06 a barrel at 0752 GMT, up 13 cents from Wednesday when prices tumbled 3 percent on the back of high production, rising U.S. stocks and an economic slowdown in Asia. Brent crude futures LCOc1 were at $45.84 a barrel, up merely 3 cents following a 3.4 percent fall the previous day. Trading data showed there seemed to be shift in sentiment towards a lower oil price outlook, with 90,000 contracts having been sold down this month, pulling open interest off a historic high as traders sell out of oil. At the same time, oil producers have hiked their short positions in Brent futures to record highs of almost 1.3 million in a sign that they are increasingly hedging their production in expectation of lower prices.

Pipes are pictured at the refinery of Austrian oil and gas group OMV in Schwechat, Austria​

Beyond high production and brimming storage tanks, sentiment has also been hit by a growing sense that Asia's two biggest economies were slowing sharply after China's factory output growth eased further. The slowdown in China has pulled down the entire commodity sector, with products like crude, copper, liquefied natural gas, coal and iron ore all down between 20 and 30 percent this year, on a re-based basis valued at 100 points on January 1. Adding to demand worries are fears that Japan's economy may have fallen into recession and that emerging markets across the world are struggling with a soaring debt mountain that threatens growth.

Yet some analysts said estimates of oversupply that usually range between 1.5 and 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd) for 2015 were likely overstated. "By our estimates, the average 2015 oversupply is only 0.7-1.0 million bpd," said Morgan Stanley's Adam Longson in a note to clients, adding that most other estimates failed to account for short-term stock changes, including strategic reserves, and seasonality for supply and demand balances. "Intentional efforts to build or sell out government stockpiles that are not available to the market, nor included in demand figures, could help tighten the balance beyond headline implied stock changes," Longson said. "The worst of the price fall could now be behind us," Barclays said, but added that "any significant move up in prices from current levels in the short term might be premature and difficult to sustain."

Oil prices remain near two-month low, outlook stays weak

 

[waltky]

Oil Price Plunge Doesn't Bother Renewable-Energy Growth Here...

Oil Price Plunge Has Scant Impact on Renewable-Energy Growth in US
December 18, 2015 | WASHINGTON — The plunging price of oil has hurt the stock price of some investments in solar and wind energy, but industry experts say it is having surprisingly little impact on renewable energy industries in the United States.

The Solar Energy Industries Association reports that 2015, a year that saw oil prices fall drastically, is on track to be a time of record growth for solar alternatives to traditional energy sources. SEIA also predicts the first part of 2016 also is likely to see strong sales and growth in the United States. Most solar-energy facilities produce electric power, by converting sunlight into electrical energy. Very few electricity generating stations in the United States are fueled by oil — natural gas, coal or nuclear reactors are other energy sources in addition to the sun energy — so fluctuating oil prices have little impact, according to industry experts. The government’s Energy Information Agency reports that oil is currently used to generate less than one-fifth of the U.S. electricity supply. Coal accounts for nearly two-fifths of electricity production and renewable sources account for a little over one-tenth.

Renewables surging

Renewable energy, from the sun, wind and biomass projects, is expected to power more than a quarter of all electricity production by 2040, EIA estimates, while coal usage will decline sharply. Oil's role in producing electric power also will be slightly lower than current levels. The U.S. renewable-energy sector has shown strong growth since 1990, although China is by far the world leader, with renewable-energy capacity of 450 gigawatts. The U.S. can produce 200 gigawatts of electricity from renewables, about twice as much as Brazil, Germany or Canada.

Some of the more than 37,000 solar panels gather sunlight at the Space Coast Next Generation Solar Center, in Merritt Island, Florida​

Further growth in U.S. renewables is expected from congressional approval of a five-year extension of tax reductions for investments in renewable-energy projects. Without such tax breaks, experts say, the biggest U.S. solar projects would not be economically viable. Most Democrats in Congress support favorable tax treatment for renewable-energy projects in the hope that industry expansion will create jobs and curb pollution. To gain approval from the Republican majority on Capitol Hill, Democrats had to agree to permit international exports by U.S. oil producers, which they have traditionally opposed.

Oil prices

See also:

Analysts: Russia’s Oil Addiction, Putin’s Political System Mutually Sustaining
December 18, 2015 — Russia's leaders often voice the need to diversify the Russian economy away from a reliance on the export of raw materials, such as oil and gas, in order to stabilize growth. Revenues from petroleum exports make up almost half the country's federal budget.

At his annual press briefing Thursday, President Vladimir Putin responded to concerns about Russia’s economy, which is projected to contract by about about 4 percent this year, with world oil prices now below $40 a barrel and a devalued currency. Putin repeated the optimistic outlook that the economy would soon begin to grow. “Proceeding from the current value of our exports,” he said, “the government is expecting our economy to achieve at least a 0.7 percent growth in 2016, 1.9 percent in 2017 and 2.4 percent in 2018.”

But Putin went on to clarify that those projections were based on oil prices of $50 a barrel. With the price of oil now lower and volatility high, he said, further adjustments would have to be made. Vladimir Milov, a former Russian deputy minister of energy who now heads the Democratic Choice political party, said he expected oil prices would continue to drop, with further negative consequences for the country.

“The average price of oil for the next year, the whole next year, might be in the range of $35 to $40, which is substantially lower than forecasts that have been recently included in the adopted budget for 2016,” he said. “So, they will have to consider severely cutting federal spending, which is something that has not been done over the whole 16 years of Putin in power.”

No quick adjustment

 

[Mr. H.]

Why would it impact "renewable" energy industries? Those fuckers are financed to the hilt by taxpayers.

If anything, it would make them yet more profitable, considering the massive hydrocarbon input that each requires.

Fuck that shit.

 

[JakeStarkey]

Good morning, Mr. H., Lighten up, it's going to be a great week.

 

[Toro]

WTI is going into the $20s.

Lots of bankruptcies coming.