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The models for hurricane path are generally very good. The problem in this instance is that the models TOLD THEM --- there was not enough information to form an accurate projection..
That's a GOOD thing. Because it tells you that the models are SMART enough to know when not to guess.
What the media is NOT discussing and NOT showing you -- is the CONFIDENCE level associated with EACH and every one of them. ANY model that projects without a Confidence level is useless.
You SAW the hurricane doing doughnuts over the outer bahamas for 2 or 3 days. There was no track to predict.
And the media and weather readers are just TOO STUPID to be bothered with details like that. EVEN the Weather Channel KNOWs those details -- but doesn't think the public WANTS to know anything sciency..
BTW -- there are TWO low pressure areas responsible for the Carolina flooding. The one driving the weather on the coast is NOT the hurricane. But the hurricane is feeding warmth and moisture to this one.
You are Correct in your assessment of the two low pressures. This however does not feed the AGW hysteria they seek to push, as does the lack of confidence and unpredictable track of this storm. Even the European models said no predictable path.
Can you imagine a similar storm in about a month when New York and other areas are below freezing? If this type of water vapor pump continues, the eastern sea board is going to be 4 feet deep in snow very quickly. Several of the predictive models say we should expect several more of these "no land fall" storms over the next 60 days.
If we get another stationary low of cold air above and a warm water pump moving off the east coast we are going to see some very sever winter storms this year. I am currently discussing several scenarios with colleagues and expect to have the winter forecast ready in about one week. If the patterns hold, the US is going to have major snows this year on both sea boards and the Rocky Mountains. The cold air mass in the polar regions has already moved into Canada and is expected to make the Midwest in two weeks..
Its going to be a very interesting winter as even the west has cooled to normal temps as the El Nino continues to die.
Just don't panic there bud.. In the absence of a 2ndary system like for this one or for Sandy, Hurricanes breezing by 100 miles offshore or greater are just an annoyance.
)
I've been watching the coverage of Joaquin since it became a Tropical Storm. All I see are guesses. Of course they try to make it legitimate by citing “computer models” that are nothing but guesses. Seems to me that EVERYTHING to do with the weather is little more than guesses.
Read more: Articles: Can't Predict a Hurricane but Global Warming is a Certainty?
Although Joaquin Is Increasingly Likely to Stay at Sea, It Is Still Expected to Produce a “Truly Historic” Wind Event
http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/imageo/files/2015/10/Joaquin-obliue-1024x576.jpg
From Hurricane Joaquin Might Produce "Historic" Wind Event
Do you know why you call it " guesses"? Because you don't have the education to know what a computer model is.
if we look at the temperature trend from 7:00 AM until 12:00 Noon, we would conclude that in a week the temperature of the earth will be hot enough to melt lead.This is the problem with the GOP, who don't understand "collecting data" and "trend".
Look at the big bang, We can look at stars and galaxies to know everything is moving away from each other by measuring their light spectrum. Even a simpleton understands that two cars driving away from each other means a moment before, they were closer together. What we don't know from actual observation and measurement is what is filled in by what we learned about the laws of physics.
We know the earth is getting warmer because it's "trending". Then scientists look at the variables through both observation and collecting data. Two things those without education don't understand.
Republicans will say, "He's talking gibberish again", everyone else will say, "Ah, yes".
Our pet idiots once again showing their inability to grasp simple concepts. We can state with absolute assurance that the physics in the atmosphere and ocean will produce hurricanes. We cannot state how many there will be, or where they will be at at any given time.
We can state with absolute assurance that by the laws of physics, the GHGs that we have put into the atmosphere is going to produce a warming of that atmosphere. We cannot state, given the interaction of the oceans and the atmosphere, plus the cryosphere, what the warming will be in any given year.
Best just to humor them, and hope their children are smarter than they are.
I've been watching the coverage of Joaquin since it became a Tropical Storm. All I see are guesses. Of course they try to make it legitimate by citing “computer models” that are nothing but guesses. Seems to me that EVERYTHING to do with the weather is little more than guesses.
Read more: Articles: Can't Predict a Hurricane but Global Warming is a Certainty?
Although Joaquin Is Increasingly Likely to Stay at Sea, It Is Still Expected to Produce a “Truly Historic” Wind Event
http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/imageo/files/2015/10/Joaquin-obliue-1024x576.jpg
From Hurricane Joaquin Might Produce "Historic" Wind Event
Do you know why you call it " guesses"? Because you don't have the education to know what a computer model is.
A computer model is nothing more than a guess.
I've been watching the coverage of Joaquin since it became a Tropical Storm. All I see are guesses. Of course they try to make it legitimate by citing “computer models” that are nothing but guesses. Seems to me that EVERYTHING to do with the weather is little more than guesses.
Read more: Articles: Can't Predict a Hurricane but Global Warming is a Certainty?
Although Joaquin Is Increasingly Likely to Stay at Sea, It Is Still Expected to Produce a “Truly Historic” Wind Event
http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/imageo/files/2015/10/Joaquin-obliue-1024x576.jpg
From Hurricane Joaquin Might Produce "Historic" Wind Event
Do you know why you call it " guesses"? Because you don't have the education to know what a computer model is.
A computer model is nothing more than a guess.
This thread shows why deniers are now often referred to as "dukes", the term referring to "DUnning KrugEr Syndrome."
"Can't Predict a Hurricane but Global Warming is a Certainty?"
This fails as a false comparison fallacy.
