I've been watching the coverage of Joaquin since it became a Tropical Storm. All I see are guesses. Of course they try to make it legitimate by citing “computer models” that are nothing but guesses. Seems to me that EVERYTHING to do with the weather is little more than guesses.
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Although Joaquin Is Increasingly Likely to Stay at Sea, It Is Still Expected to Produce a “Truly Historic” Wind Event
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From Hurricane Joaquin Might Produce "Historic" Wind Event