Can't Predict a Hurricane but Global Warming is a Certainty?

[longknife]

I've been watching the coverage of Joaquin since it became a Tropical Storm. All I see are guesses. Of course they try to make it legitimate by citing “computer models” that are nothing but guesses. Seems to me that EVERYTHING to do with the weather is little more than guesses.



Read more: Articles: Can't Predict a Hurricane but Global Warming is a Certainty?



Although Joaquin Is Increasingly Likely to Stay at Sea, It Is Still Expected to Produce a “Truly Historic” Wind Event



http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/imageo/files/2015/10/Joaquin-obliue-1024x576.jpg

From Hurricane Joaquin Might Produce "Historic" Wind Event

 

[flacaltenn]

A lot of this is deliberate manipulation of the "weather news". The wife and I were watching the Weather Channel all week and we just shook our heads and groaned. Those jerks had up graphics on Wed. showing a track cone heading right for the DC -NYC corridor --- but THEN --- they superimposed the model tracks on their cone and they were WELL OFF to sea.

They are so f-ing desperate to get another Sandy fable -- that they just can't help themselves. It's like cheering for Armageddon so that they can lecture everybody about about their religion of GW..

All the while largely ignoring the disaster that it is ACTUALLY happening in the Bahamas when a CAT4 storm sits right on your head for 36 hours.. Scumbags and fanatics. ALL of them..

 

[Billy_Bob]

A lot of this is deliberate manipulation of the "weather news". The wife and I were watching the Weather Channel all week and we just shook our heads and groaned. Those jerks had up graphics on Wed. showing a track cone heading right for the DC -NYC corridor --- but THEN --- they superimposed the model tracks on their cone and they were WELL OFF to sea.

They are so f-ing desperate to get another Sandy fable -- that they just can't help themselves. It's like cheering for Armageddon so that they can lecture everybody about about their religion of GW..

All the while largely ignoring the disaster that it is ACTUALLY happening in the Bahamas when a CAT4 storm sits right on your head for 36 hours.. Scumbags and fanatics. ALL of them..

They need hype and disaster to get COP21 off the ground and mother nature isn't cooperating for them.. they are aslo trying like hell to keep the news off their 20 comrades who stepped in the poo rather hard with a letter only to have it backfire and we find out they might have defrauded the government of over 31.5 million dollars..

Desperation is putting it lightly....

 

[skookerasbil]

These AGW people are the most gullible fucks on the planet...........the whole of AGW being dependent on "the models"............

Just 72 hours ago, here is a depiction of the "models" on Juaquin.............

[URL=http://s42.photobucket.com/user/baldaltima/media/Model.jpg.html][/URL]

 

[longknife]

And new they're saying that the majority of rains soaking the Carolinas are NOT even from the hurricane!

 

[Delta4Embassy]

Where a hurricane may go and whether global warming's real roughly the same thing. (rolls eyes)

 

[Billy_Bob]

These AGW people are the most gullible fucks on the planet...........the whole of AGW being dependent on "the models"............

Just 72 hours ago, here is a depiction of the "models" on Juaquin.............

This is classic Global Atmospheric Circulation Model (GCM) failure. These are the same models they want us to believe predict the future of catastrophic warming.. Just a mere 72 hours and it proves they dont know crap and that they are clueless about climate events in total.

Stunning to behold the failure so vividly displayed..

 

[Crick]

I've been watching the coverage of Joaquin since it became a Tropical Storm. All I see are guesses. Of course they try to make it legitimate by citing “computer models” that are nothing but guesses. Seems to me that EVERYTHING to do with the weather is little more than guesses.



Read more: Articles: Can't Predict a Hurricane but Global Warming is a Certainty?



Although Joaquin Is Increasingly Likely to Stay at Sea, It Is Still Expected to Produce a “Truly Historic” Wind Event



http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/imageo/files/2015/10/Joaquin-obliue-1024x576.jpg

From Hurricane Joaquin Might Produce "Historic" Wind Event

Do you know why you call it " guesses"? Because you don't have the education to know what a computer model is.

 

[ScienceRocks]

The european model(Ecmwf) predicted the path it took accurately...Our models like the gfs got kicked in the teeth.

Europe spends more on their shit.

 

[Wyatt earp]

I've been watching the coverage of Joaquin since it became a Tropical Storm. All I see are guesses. Of course they try to make it legitimate by citing “computer models” that are nothing but guesses. Seems to me that EVERYTHING to do with the weather is little more than guesses.



Read more: Articles: Can't Predict a Hurricane but Global Warming is a Certainty?



Although Joaquin Is Increasingly Likely to Stay at Sea, It Is Still Expected to Produce a “Truly Historic” Wind Event



http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/imageo/files/2015/10/Joaquin-obliue-1024x576.jpg

From Hurricane Joaquin Might Produce "Historic" Wind Event

Do you know why you call it " guesses"? Because you don't have the education to know what a computer model is.

She is slamming the heck out of us in South Carolina...I can't even sleep

 

[rdean]

This is the problem with the GOP, who don't understand "collecting data" and "trend".

Look at the big bang, We can look at stars and galaxies to know everything is moving away from each other by measuring their light spectrum. Even a simpleton understands that two cars driving away from each other means a moment before, they were closer together. What we don't know from actual observation and measurement is what is filled in by what we learned about the laws of physics.

We know the earth is getting warmer because it's "trending". Then scientists look at the variables through both observation and collecting data. Two things those without education don't understand.

Republicans will say, "He's talking gibberish again", everyone else will say, "Ah, yes".

 

[Old Rocks]

Our pet idiots once again showing their inability to grasp simple concepts. We can state with absolute assurance that the physics in the atmosphere and ocean will produce hurricanes. We cannot state how many there will be, or where they will be at at any given time.

We can state with absolute assurance that by the laws of physics, the GHGs that we have put into the atmosphere is going to produce a warming of that atmosphere. We cannot state, given the interaction of the oceans and the atmosphere, plus the cryosphere, what the warming will be in any given year.

Best just to humor them, and hope their children are smarter than they are.

 

[rdean]

Our pet idiots once again showing their inability to grasp simple concepts. We can state with absolute assurance that the physics in the atmosphere and ocean will produce hurricanes. We cannot state how many there will be, or where they will be at at any given time.

We can state with absolute assurance that by the laws of physics, the GHGs that we have put into the atmosphere is going to produce a warming of that atmosphere. We cannot state, given the interaction of the oceans and the atmosphere, plus the cryosphere, what the warming will be in any given year.

Best just to humor them, and hope their children are smarter than they are.

Unfortunately for both them and the country, considering their hatred and suspicion of education, I suspect that won't happen. They may have irreparably damaged the future of their children.

 

[rdean]

I've been watching the coverage of Joaquin since it became a Tropical Storm. All I see are guesses. Of course they try to make it legitimate by citing “computer models” that are nothing but guesses. Seems to me that EVERYTHING to do with the weather is little more than guesses.



Read more: Articles: Can't Predict a Hurricane but Global Warming is a Certainty?



Although Joaquin Is Increasingly Likely to Stay at Sea, It Is Still Expected to Produce a “Truly Historic” Wind Event



http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/imageo/files/2015/10/Joaquin-obliue-1024x576.jpg

From Hurricane Joaquin Might Produce "Historic" Wind Event

Do you know why you call it " guesses"? Because you don't have the education to know what a computer model is.

She is slamming the heck out of us in South Carolina...I can't even sleep

She is slamming the heck out of us in South Carolina...I can't even sleep

I could have predicted that it would affect your sleep. Just not when.

 

[Billy_Bob]

I've been watching the coverage of Joaquin since it became a Tropical Storm. All I see are guesses. Of course they try to make it legitimate by citing “computer models” that are nothing but guesses. Seems to me that EVERYTHING to do with the weather is little more than guesses.



Read more: Articles: Can't Predict a Hurricane but Global Warming is a Certainty?



Although Joaquin Is Increasingly Likely to Stay at Sea, It Is Still Expected to Produce a “Truly Historic” Wind Event



http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/imageo/files/2015/10/Joaquin-obliue-1024x576.jpg

From Hurricane Joaquin Might Produce "Historic" Wind Event

Do you know why you call it " guesses"? Because you don't have the education to know what a computer model is.

A model is a SWAG (Scientific WILD ASS GUESS)

The models you tout have already been shown useless outside of 12 hours..

 

[Billy_Bob]

The european model(Ecmwf) predicted the path it took accurately...Our models like the gfs got kicked in the teeth.

Europe spends more on their shit.

Those models (including ECMWF) all failed outside of 12 hours.. Gawd you are so dam gullible..."Europe spends more on their shit" is a total line of bull shit. Spending more money on crap is not smart..

 

[Billy_Bob]

This is the problem with the GOP, who don't understand "collecting data" and "trend".

Look at the big bang, We can look at stars and galaxies to know everything is moving away from each other by measuring their light spectrum. Even a simpleton understands that two cars driving away from each other means a moment before, they were closer together. What we don't know from actual observation and measurement is what is filled in by what we learned about the laws of physics.

We know the earth is getting warmer because it's "trending". Then scientists look at the variables through both observation and collecting data. Two things those without education don't understand.

Republicans will say, "He's talking gibberish again", everyone else will say, "Ah, yes".

Our pet idiots once again showing their inability to grasp simple concepts. We can state with absolute assurance that the physics in the atmosphere and ocean will produce hurricanes. We cannot state how many there will be, or where they will be at at any given time.

We can state with absolute assurance that by the laws of physics, the GHGs that we have put into the atmosphere is going to produce a warming of that atmosphere. We cannot state, given the interaction of the oceans and the atmosphere, plus the cryosphere, what the warming will be in any given year.

Best just to humor them, and hope their children are smarter than they are.

Our pet idiots once again showing their inability to grasp simple concepts. We can state with absolute assurance that the physics in the atmosphere and ocean will produce hurricanes. We cannot state how many there will be, or where they will be at at any given time.

We can state with absolute assurance that by the laws of physics, the GHGs that we have put into the atmosphere is going to produce a warming of that atmosphere. We cannot state, given the interaction of the oceans and the atmosphere, plus the cryosphere, what the warming will be in any given year.

Best just to humor them, and hope their children are smarter than they are.

Unfortunately for both them and the country, considering their hatred and suspicion of education, I suspect that won't happen. They may have irreparably damaged the future of their children.

Left wing morons who have chicken little syndrome and no facts... Putting your faith in government and "the Mann" is a fools game you will lose.

 

[flacaltenn]

The models for hurricane path are generally very good. The problem in this instance is that the models TOLD THEM --- there was not enough information to form an accurate projection..

That's a GOOD thing. Because it tells you that the models are SMART enough to know when not to guess.
What the media is NOT discussing and NOT showing you -- is the CONFIDENCE level associated with EACH and every one of them. ANY model that projects without a Confidence level is useless.

You SAW the hurricane doing doughnuts over the outer bahamas for 2 or 3 days. There was no track to predict.

And the media and weather readers are just TOO STUPID to be bothered with details like that. EVEN the Weather Channel KNOWs those details -- but doesn't think the public WANTS to know anything sciency..

BTW -- there are TWO low pressure areas responsible for the Carolina flooding. The one driving the weather on the coast is NOT the hurricane. But the hurricane is feeding warmth and moisture to this one.

 

[Billy_Bob]

The models for hurricane path are generally very good. The problem in this instance is that the models TOLD THEM --- there was not enough information to form an accurate projection..

That's a GOOD thing. Because it tells you that the models are SMART enough to know when not to guess.
What the media is NOT discussing and NOT showing you -- is the CONFIDENCE level associated with EACH and every one of them. ANY model that projects without a Confidence level is useless.

You SAW the hurricane doing doughnuts over the outer bahamas for 2 or 3 days. There was no track to predict.

And the media and weather readers are just TOO STUPID to be bothered with details like that. EVEN the Weather Channel KNOWs those details -- but doesn't think the public WANTS to know anything sciency..

BTW -- there are TWO low pressure areas responsible for the Carolina flooding. The one driving the weather on the coast is NOT the hurricane. But the hurricane is feeding warmth and moisture to this one.

You are Correct in your assessment of the two low pressures. This however does not feed the AGW hysteria they seek to push, as does the lack of confidence and unpredictable track of this storm. Even the European models said no predictable path.

Can you imagine a similar storm in about a month when New York and other areas are below freezing? If this type of water vapor pump continues, the eastern sea board is going to be 4 feet deep in snow very quickly. Several of the predictive models say we should expect several more of these "no land fall" storms over the next 60 days.

If we get another stationary low of cold air above and a warm water pump moving off the east coast we are going to see some very sever winter storms this year. I am currently discussing several scenarios with colleagues and expect to have the winter forecast ready in about one week. If the patterns hold, the US is going to have major snows this year on both sea boards and the Rocky Mountains. The cold air mass in the polar regions has already moved into Canada and is expected to make the Midwest in two weeks..

Its going to be a very interesting winter as even the west has cooled to normal temps as the El Nino continues to die.

 

[flacaltenn]

The models for hurricane path are generally very good. The problem in this instance is that the models TOLD THEM --- there was not enough information to form an accurate projection..

That's a GOOD thing. Because it tells you that the models are SMART enough to know when not to guess.
What the media is NOT discussing and NOT showing you -- is the CONFIDENCE level associated with EACH and every one of them. ANY model that projects without a Confidence level is useless.

You SAW the hurricane doing doughnuts over the outer bahamas for 2 or 3 days. There was no track to predict.

And the media and weather readers are just TOO STUPID to be bothered with details like that. EVEN the Weather Channel KNOWs those details -- but doesn't think the public WANTS to know anything sciency..

BTW -- there are TWO low pressure areas responsible for the Carolina flooding. The one driving the weather on the coast is NOT the hurricane. But the hurricane is feeding warmth and moisture to this one.

You are Correct in your assessment of the two low pressures. This however does not feed the AGW hysteria they seek to push, as does the lack of confidence and unpredictable track of this storm. Even the European models said no predictable path.

Can you imagine a similar storm in about a month when New York and other areas are below freezing? If this type of water vapor pump continues, the eastern sea board is going to be 4 feet deep in snow very quickly. Several of the predictive models say we should expect several more of these "no land fall" storms over the next 60 days.

If we get another stationary low of cold air above and a warm water pump moving off the east coast we are going to see some very sever winter storms this year. I am currently discussing several scenarios with colleagues and expect to have the winter forecast ready in about one week. If the patterns hold, the US is going to have major snows this year on both sea boards and the Rocky Mountains. The cold air mass in the polar regions has already moved into Canada and is expected to make the Midwest in two weeks..

Its going to be a very interesting winter as even the west has cooled to normal temps as the El Nino continues to die.

Just don't panic there bud.. In the absence of a 2ndary system like for this one or for Sandy, Hurricanes breezing by 100 miles offshore or greater are just an annoyance.