Al Bores Movie Bombs at Box Office

[Dr Grump]

If we don't succeed, we run the risk of failure.
...George W. Bush, Jr.

"Republicans understand the importance of bondage between a mother and child."
...Governor George W. Bush, Jr.

"Welcome to Mrs. Bush, and my fellow astronauts."
...Governor George W. Bush, Jr.

"Mars is essentially in the same orbit...Mars is somewhat the same distance from the Sun, which is very important. We have seen pictures where there are canals, we believe, and water. If there is water, that means there is oxygen. If oxygen, that means we can breathe."
...Governor George W. Bush, Jr., 8/11/94

"The Holocaust was an obscene period in our nation's history. I mean in this century's history. But we all lived in this century. I didn't live in this century."
...Governor George W. Bush, Jr., 9/15/95

"I believe we are on an irreversible trend toward more freedom and democracy - but that could change."
...Governor George W. Bush, Jr., 5/22/98

"One word sums up probably the responsibility of any Governor, and that one word is 'to be prepared'."
...Governor George W. Bush, Jr., 12/6/93

"Verbosity leads to unclear, inarticulate things."
...Governor George W. Bush, Jr., 11/30/96

"I have made good judgments in the past. I have made good judgments in the future."
...Governor George W. Bush, Jr.

"The future will be better tomorrow."
...Governor George W. Bush, Jr.

"We're going to have the best educated American people in the world."
...Governor George W. Bush, Jr., 9/21/97

"People that are really very weird can get into sensitive positions and have a tremendous impact on history."
...Governor George W. Bush, Jr.

"I stand by all the misstatements that I've made."
...Governor George W. Bush, Jr. to Sam Donaldson, 8/17/93

"We have a firm commitment to NATO, we are a part of NATO. We have a firm commitment to Europe. We are a part of Europe."
...Governor George W. Bush, Jr.

"Public speaking is very easy."
...Governor George W. Bush, Jr. to reporters in 10/9

"I am not part of the problem. I am a Republican"
...Governor George W. Bush, Jr.

"A low voter turnout is an indication of fewer people going to the polls."
...Governor George W. Bush, Jr.

"When I have been asked who caused the riots and the killing in LA my answer has been direct & simple:

Who is to blame for the riots?
The rioters are to blame.
Who is to blame for the killings?
The killers are to blame.
...George W. Bush, Jr.

"Illegitimacy is something we should talk about in terms of not having it."
...Governor George W. Bush, Jr., 5/20/96

"We are ready for any unforeseen event that may or may not occur."
...Governor George W. Bush, Jr., 9/22/97

"For NASA, space is still a high priority."
...Governor George W. Bush, Jr., 9/5/93

"Quite frankly, teachers are the only profession that teach our children."
...Governor George W. Bush, Jr., 9/18/95

"The American people would not want to know of any misquotes that George Bush may or may not make."
...Governor George W. Bush, Jr.

"We're all capable of mistakes, but I do not care to enlighten you on the mistakes we may or may not have made."
...Governor George W. Bush, Jr.

"It isn't pollution that's harming the environment. It's the impurities in our air and water that are doing it."
...Governor George W. Bush, Jr.

"[It's] time for the human race to enter the solar system."
...Governor George W. Bush, Jr.

 

[Mr.Conley]

In a nutshell, your equation was wrong because it attempts to resolve a multivariable system in a single equation rather than as a system of equations. Each successive "run" or showing needs a seperate equation o represent the differences between the runs. Then the system needs solved for either for maximizing each variable or groups of variables.

Yes and no, although it looks like a single equation, it is actually a system. I combined each individual VX(P/100)NX equation, which represents one weeks's run, to form the overall run.

I also address your other concern about the decline in viewer attendence as the movie expands to less advantageous areas. You simply insert a smaller P variable to account for the decline as the movie expands. The P value had pretty much always gone down (obviously gross per theatre wasn't going to stay at $90,000 or even $15,000) The P value, and the resultant V values, follow correctly, what we missed was the N value. I operated under the assumption that we would see a wider national release of at least 2,000 theatres. Unfortunately, the N reached a limit of 500, but if you account for this mistake, the movie falls back in range of my predictions.

__________________

 

[red states rule]

If we don't succeed, we run the risk of failure.
...George W. Bush, Jr.

"Republicans understand the importance of bondage between a mother and child."
...Governor George W. Bush, Jr.

"Welcome to Mrs. Bush, and my fellow astronauts."
...Governor George W. Bush, Jr.

"Mars is essentially in the same orbit...Mars is somewhat the same distance from the Sun, which is very important. We have seen pictures where there are canals, we believe, and water. If there is water, that means there is oxygen. If oxygen, that means we can breathe."
...Governor George W. Bush, Jr., 8/11/94

"The Holocaust was an obscene period in our nation's history. I mean in this century's history. But we all lived in this century. I didn't live in this century."
...Governor George W. Bush, Jr., 9/15/95

"I believe we are on an irreversible trend toward more freedom and democracy - but that could change."
...Governor George W. Bush, Jr., 5/22/98

"One word sums up probably the responsibility of any Governor, and that one word is 'to be prepared'."
...Governor George W. Bush, Jr., 12/6/93

"Verbosity leads to unclear, inarticulate things."
...Governor George W. Bush, Jr., 11/30/96

"I have made good judgments in the past. I have made good judgments in the future."
...Governor George W. Bush, Jr.

"The future will be better tomorrow."
...Governor George W. Bush, Jr.

"We're going to have the best educated American people in the world."
...Governor George W. Bush, Jr., 9/21/97

"People that are really very weird can get into sensitive positions and have a tremendous impact on history."
...Governor George W. Bush, Jr.

"I stand by all the misstatements that I've made."
...Governor George W. Bush, Jr. to Sam Donaldson, 8/17/93

"We have a firm commitment to NATO, we are a part of NATO. We have a firm commitment to Europe. We are a part of Europe."
...Governor George W. Bush, Jr.

"Public speaking is very easy."
...Governor George W. Bush, Jr. to reporters in 10/9

"I am not part of the problem. I am a Republican"
...Governor George W. Bush, Jr.

"A low voter turnout is an indication of fewer people going to the polls."
...Governor George W. Bush, Jr.

"When I have been asked who caused the riots and the killing in LA my answer has been direct & simple:

Who is to blame for the riots?
The rioters are to blame.
Who is to blame for the killings?
The killers are to blame.
...George W. Bush, Jr.

"Illegitimacy is something we should talk about in terms of not having it."
...Governor George W. Bush, Jr., 5/20/96

"We are ready for any unforeseen event that may or may not occur."
...Governor George W. Bush, Jr., 9/22/97

"For NASA, space is still a high priority."
...Governor George W. Bush, Jr., 9/5/93

"Quite frankly, teachers are the only profession that teach our children."
...Governor George W. Bush, Jr., 9/18/95

"The American people would not want to know of any misquotes that George Bush may or may not make."
...Governor George W. Bush, Jr.

"We're all capable of mistakes, but I do not care to enlighten you on the mistakes we may or may not have made."
...Governor George W. Bush, Jr.

"It isn't pollution that's harming the environment. It's the impurities in our air and water that are doing it."
...Governor George W. Bush, Jr.

"[It's] time for the human race to enter the solar system."
...Governor George W. Bush, Jr.

The differneces betwen Pres Bush and Al Bore are 1) Pres Bush does not lie about his accomplishments, and 2) Pres Bush is a winner and Bore is a whiner

 

[red states rule]

If we don't succeed, we run the risk of failure.
...George W. Bush, Jr.

"Republicans understand the importance of bondage between a mother and child."
...Governor George W. Bush, Jr.

"Welcome to Mrs. Bush, and my fellow astronauts."
...Governor George W. Bush, Jr.

"Mars is essentially in the same orbit...Mars is somewhat the same distance from the Sun, which is very important. We have seen pictures where there are canals, we believe, and water. If there is water, that means there is oxygen. If oxygen, that means we can breathe."
...Governor George W. Bush, Jr., 8/11/94

"The Holocaust was an obscene period in our nation's history. I mean in this century's history. But we all lived in this century. I didn't live in this century."
...Governor George W. Bush, Jr., 9/15/95

"I believe we are on an irreversible trend toward more freedom and democracy - but that could change."
...Governor George W. Bush, Jr., 5/22/98

"One word sums up probably the responsibility of any Governor, and that one word is 'to be prepared'."
...Governor George W. Bush, Jr., 12/6/93

"Verbosity leads to unclear, inarticulate things."
...Governor George W. Bush, Jr., 11/30/96

"I have made good judgments in the past. I have made good judgments in the future."
...Governor George W. Bush, Jr.

"The future will be better tomorrow."
...Governor George W. Bush, Jr.

"We're going to have the best educated American people in the world."
...Governor George W. Bush, Jr., 9/21/97

"People that are really very weird can get into sensitive positions and have a tremendous impact on history."
...Governor George W. Bush, Jr.

"I stand by all the misstatements that I've made."
...Governor George W. Bush, Jr. to Sam Donaldson, 8/17/93

"We have a firm commitment to NATO, we are a part of NATO. We have a firm commitment to Europe. We are a part of Europe."
...Governor George W. Bush, Jr.

"Public speaking is very easy."
...Governor George W. Bush, Jr. to reporters in 10/9

"I am not part of the problem. I am a Republican"
...Governor George W. Bush, Jr.

"A low voter turnout is an indication of fewer people going to the polls."
...Governor George W. Bush, Jr.

"When I have been asked who caused the riots and the killing in LA my answer has been direct & simple:

Who is to blame for the riots?
The rioters are to blame.
Who is to blame for the killings?
The killers are to blame.
...George W. Bush, Jr.

"Illegitimacy is something we should talk about in terms of not having it."
...Governor George W. Bush, Jr., 5/20/96

"We are ready for any unforeseen event that may or may not occur."
...Governor George W. Bush, Jr., 9/22/97

"For NASA, space is still a high priority."
...Governor George W. Bush, Jr., 9/5/93

"Quite frankly, teachers are the only profession that teach our children."
...Governor George W. Bush, Jr., 9/18/95

"The American people would not want to know of any misquotes that George Bush may or may not make."
...Governor George W. Bush, Jr.

"We're all capable of mistakes, but I do not care to enlighten you on the mistakes we may or may not have made."
...Governor George W. Bush, Jr.

"It isn't pollution that's harming the environment. It's the impurities in our air and water that are doing it."
...Governor George W. Bush, Jr.

"[It's] time for the human race to enter the solar system."
...Governor George W. Bush, Jr.

The differences betwen Pres Bush and Al Bore are 1) Pres Bush does not lie about his accomplishments, and 2) Pres Bush is a winner and Bore is a whiner

 

[no1tovote4]

The fifth highest box office movie of all time was The Two Towers with $921 million. Al's movie is the fifth highest (at the moment, it'll probably end up at about number 3 or 4) doco of all time. I reiterate, what is your definition of a bomb. Take your time...

According to USA Today his movie is 10th highest Documentary..

http://www.usatoday.com/life/movies/news/2006-06-22-truth-test_x.htm

Come on, link us up with your claims.

 

[CockySOB]

Yes and no, although it looks like a single equation, it is actually a system. I combined each individual VX(P/100)NX equation, which represents one weeks's run, to form the overall run.

I also address your other concern about the decline in viewer attendence as the movie expands to less advantageous areas. You simply insert a smaller P variable to account for the decline as the movie expands. The P value had pretty much always gone down (obviously gross per theatre wasn't going to stay at $90,000 or even $15,000) The P value, and the resultant V values, follow correctly, what we missed was the N value. I operated under the assumption that we would see a wider national release of at least 2,000 theatres. Unfortunately, the N reached a limit of 500, but if you account for this mistake, the movie falls back in range of my predictions.

__________________

The problem with your methodology is that when you move to insert values for P, you are subjecting your equation to arbitrary values which support your conclusion rather than using a standardized system which represents ALL similar systems (i.e. other movies). As such, it is flawed as a predictive system because the arbitrary values should in fact be qualified within your system as another set of component equations within your system, and not simply "filled in" in an arbitrary fashion. Now if you can refine P[0..n] as constants and incorporate a standard method of adapting the system to handle each successive run, you'd be on hte way to having a decent predictive system.

I'd be interested to see how you try to evolve your system. It has promise.

 

[CockySOB]

According to USA Today his movie is 10th highest Documentary..

http://www.usatoday.com/life/movies/news/2006-06-22-truth-test_x.htm

Come on, link us up with your claims.

Can you validate the claim of 10th highest grossing documentary of all-time? That's what your cited article claims, yet doesn't provide any validation for.

I've provided rudimentary research which indicates that such a claim is most probably unfounded. I will endeavor to find a more complete roster of documentaries and their gross sales to date, and any help you can provide would be appreciated.

 

[Dr Grump]

Come on, link us up with your claims.

Already did. See post 273....

 

[red states rule]

Already did. See post 273....

To Dr Grump, Al Bores movies is the grestest docudrama of all time

Air America has higher ratings then Rush and Sean combined

The only reason all this great liberal news is not getting out is because of the right wing media

Sat hi to Toto and the Tin Woodsmen for me Doc

 

[red states rule]

Already did. See post 273....

The libs will never admit it, but this bomb keep slipping lower and lower

4th of July weekend and this flop takes in a meager $1,172,984

Avg per theater falls to $2,087

Will libs blame the vast right wing conspiracy?

http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/inconvenient_truth/numbers.php

 

[red states rule]

The problem with your methodology is that when you move to insert values for P, you are subjecting your equation to arbitrary values which support your conclusion rather than using a standardized system which represents ALL similar systems (i.e. other movies). As such, it is flawed as a predictive system because the arbitrary values should in fact be qualified within your system as another set of component equations within your system, and not simply "filled in" in an arbitrary fashion. Now if you can refine P[0..n] as constants and incorporate a standard method of adapting the system to handle each successive run, you'd be on hte way to having a decent predictive system.

I'd be interested to see how you try to evolve your system. It has promise.

Even BEFORE this bomb came out they were making excuses for its miserable failure


MSNBC's Countdown documented the "swift-boating of Al Gore"
Summary: On MSNBC's Countdown, fill-in host Brian Unger denounced the baseless attacks -- including Nazi references -- against the documentary film An Inconvenient Truth, which chronicles former Vice President Al Gore's campaign to raise awareness about global warming. Noting that these attacks ignore the scientific facts put forth in the movie, Unger characterized them as "swift-boating."
On the May 31 edition of MSNBC's Countdown, fill-in host Brian Unger, a commentator on National Public Radio's Day to Day, denounced the baseless attacks -- including Nazi references -- against documentary film An Inconvenient Truth (Paramount Classics, May 2006), which chronicles former Vice President Al Gore's campaign to raise awareness about global warming. Noting that these attacks ignore the scientific facts put forth in the movie, Unger characterized them as "swift-boating," referring to the attack ads by Swift Boat Veterans for Truth against Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) during his 2004 presidential campaign. He added that "Third Reich analogies are the nuclear bombs of oratory, rhetorical, or literary devices," which "obliterate any logic or reason within miles of the hurler."

Unger pointed out that global warming skeptic William M. Gray, professor emeritus of atmospheric science at Colorado State University, stated that "Gore believed in global warming almost as much as Hitler believed there was something wrong with the Jews," according to a May 28 Washington Post Magazine article. Unger also highlighted an unnamed pundit who compared An Inconvenient Truth to Joseph Goebbels's Nazi propaganda films. Unger may have been referring to Sterling Burnett, a senior fellow at the National Center for Policy Analysis, who, as Media Matters for America has documented, called the film "propaganda" and added: "You don't go see Joseph Goebbels's films to see the truth about Nazi Germany. You don't want to go see Al Gore's film to see the truth about global warming."

From the May 31 edition of MSNBC's Countdown with Keith Olbermann:

UNGER: Third Reich analogies are the nuclear bombs of oratory, rhetorical, or literary devices. They obliterate any logic or reason within miles and the hurler of the Hitler bomb almost always looks worse than the intended recipient of the blast. Seinfeld's soup Nazi episode gets the only waver. The latest target of the Hitler comparison: Al Gore and his global warming film. And anyone who has a beef with it should probably base their criticism on the science and not the mindset of old Adolf.

In our third story on the Countdown: the swift-boating of Al Gore -- the former vice president's wake-up call on climate change, leading to some unfortunate analogies and a debate that seems lacking in substance. The documentary itself, An Inconvenient Truth, making an impressive debut at the box office, raking in an average of just over $70,000 per screen over the holiday weekend. The No. 1 film, X-Men III, averaging less than half of that. As a result, the counterattacks beginning in earnest. Meteorologist Bill Gray making little mention of the weather in his rebuttal. Quote, "Gore believed in global warming almost as much as Hitler believed there was something wrong with the Jews." Which doesn't even make sense.

Then there's the pundit who compared the Gore movie to Joseph Goebbels films about Nazi, Germany. The Fox News analyst who said that global warming was bogus and dreamed up by environmentalists to stop economic development. And in true swift-boat fashion, the campaign-style attack ads produced by a conservative think tank that is funded largely by the energy industry.

ANNOUNCER [clip]: There's something in these pictures you can't see. It's essential to life. You breathe it out, plants breathe it in. It comes from animal life, the oceans, the earth, and the fuels we find in it. It's called carbon dioxide -- CO2. The fuels that produce it have freed us from the world of back-breaking labor, lighting up our lives, allowing us to create and move the things we need, the people we love. Now, some politicians want to label carbon dioxide a pollutant. Imagine if they succeed. What would our lives be like then? Carbon dioxide. They call it pollution. We call it life.

UNGER: Time now to suspend this lesson on photosynthesis for a closer look at the politics involved here with the White House correspondent for the New York Daily News Ken Bazinet.

Thank you for joining us.

BAZINET: Hi Brian. Good evening.

UNGER: For five years now, Al Gore has been, you know, little more than a political punch line at times. Why go to all this trouble of attacking him now? I mean, are conservatives legitimately scared of a Gore comeback here?

BAZINET: I don't -- I don't know that they're necessarily scared of a Gore comeback, but I think it's the message. It's sort of a -- it's a wine whose time has come, I think. In 2000, when Al Gore was talking about climate change and global warming, I don't think people by and by could state their position, articulate how they felt about it or even tell you what it was. I think now, in 2006, we're at a place were people actually do have an opinion of this. They go on the Internet and they want to try and find out what does climate change have to do with hurricane season, for instance. What exactly are greenhouse gases? So, I think the timing of this really is -- is what's essential. I don't think it's so much the messenger as it is the message.

UNGER: It feels, though, that this is a personal attack. The politics of global warming has -- of course, you know, the science has long been in dispute. Is this more personal?

BAZINET: Well, I don't think that Al Gore has sort of manufactured himself to become a candidate overnight, but I do think that he can lay claim to this issue. But again, I want to get back to my -- to really, my first answer. They're attacking Al Gore because he's the perfect messenger. He can articulate this. I spoke with someone who attended a screening of this film, and one point that she made was that he really does a good job of simplifying things that are very complicated to, I think, the untrained mind. I think that's very dangerous. If you can say in a simple declarative sentence what the problem is, back it up with science, I think that really you have a hot potato there and I think that the right is very concerned about that, potentially those folks who are on the payroll of big oil at this point, I believe.

UNGER: The swift-boating of John Kerry helped secured four more years of George W. Bush. Anything that it would suggest that it won't work this time?

BAZINET: Well, first of all, what ballot is he on? And, you know, second of all, I think that there is probably more science to back up Al Gore's case at this point. I'm not sure that this will work to destroy Al Gore as much as it's going to cause an awful lot of people who, you know, quite frankly, he wasn't on their radar screens, but now he will be. Any time you hammer someone, I mean, people want to know why. So, I think it's a real risk move and I think that's why you don't necessarily see so-called mainstream Republicans jumping in on this, but rather sort of the fractured right at this point.

UNGER: Big box office does not mean a film like this will have any real lasting impact at the ballot box, Fahrenheit 9/11 being a recent example of that. Is it too soon to be hailing the success of An Inconvenient Truth?

BAZINET: I think -- I think it's not necessarily too soon to hail it, but I think that you can measure it, both dollars and cents wise -- people, obviously, showing up at the theaters -- but also, let's see whether or not he's able to, you know, get people talking. If he's able to galvanize, for instance, part of the true left, I mean, that can work to the advantage, obviously, of those Democrats, those progressives who are on the ballot this fall. So, I think, you know, yes, the jury's out, but we're already talking about this.

UNGER: Ken Bazinet, thank you very much for joining us.

BAZINET: My pleasure.

 

[Mr.Conley]

The problem with your methodology is that when you move to insert values for P, you are subjecting your equation to arbitrary values which support your conclusion rather than using a standardized system which represents ALL similar systems (i.e. other movies). As such, it is flawed as a predictive system because the arbitrary values should in fact be qualified within your system as another set of component equations within your system, and not simply "filled in" in an arbitrary fashion. Now if you can refine P[0..n] as constants and incorporate a standard method of adapting the system to handle each successive run, you'd be on hte way to having a decent predictive system.

I'd be interested to see how you try to evolve your system. It has promise.

In part yes, the equation does rely on the user to determine P, and I agree that this can lead to inadvertedly flawed results, that is why I used the P value changes of other limited release movies that came out recently as my own. I also gave myself an extremely large margin for error. Both of these acted to deter me from making selfjustifying predictions. Considering that once you readjust the N values to reflect the actual limited release track my prediction fall in line with the movies actual gross, I am inclined to believe that my personal methiod of applying P was good. You are correct though, I and wish I could determine a constant for each P. Ultimately, I don't think there is a way to create a reliable P value with the information we currently have. We could determine a constant value for P by collecting all the week to week or day to day P changes of a large collection of recent limited and nationwide movies and finding their mean, but I don't have time to do that. For nationwide releases, we can rely on the fact that those movies will almost always see a consistently low P throughout their run, but for limited releases, serious statistical work would be required before determining a correct constant P value.

 

[red states rule]

In part yes, the equation does rely on the user to determine P, and I agree that this can lead to inadvertedly flawed results, that is why I used the P value changes of other limited release movies that came out recently as my own. I also gave myself an extremely large margin for error. Both of these acted to deter me from making selfjustifying predictions. Considering that once you readjust the N values to reflect the actual limited release track my prediction fall in line with the movies actual gross, I am inclined to believe that my personal methiod of applying P was good. You are correct though, I and wish I could determine a constant for each P. Ultimately, I don't think there is a way to create a reliable P value with the information we currently have. We could determine a constant value for P by collecting all the week to week or day to day P changes of a large collection of recent limited and nationwide movies and finding their mean, but I don't have time to do that. For nationwide releases, we can rely on the fact that those movies will almost always see a consistently low P throughout their run, but for limited releases, serious statistical work would be required before determining a correct constant P value.

Why not admit the movie sucks instaed of trying to spin the declining numbers?

 

[red states rule]

Yes and no, although it looks like a single equation, it is actually a system. I combined each individual VX(P/100)NX equation, which represents one weeks's run, to form the overall run.

I also address your other concern about the decline in viewer attendence as the movie expands to less advantageous areas. You simply insert a smaller P variable to account for the decline as the movie expands. The P value had pretty much always gone down (obviously gross per theatre wasn't going to stay at $90,000 or even $15,000) The P value, and the resultant V values, follow correctly, what we missed was the N value. I operated under the assumption that we would see a wider national release of at least 2,000 theatres. Unfortunately, the N reached a limit of 500, but if you account for this mistake, the movie falls back in range of my predictions.

__________________

Poor Al, the numbers keep coming in, and they prove Americans do not give a damn about him or this bomb
http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/inconvenient_truth/numbers.php
7 weeks in release, and this flop has a gross of $15,050,824

Average per theather has fallen to a measly $2,087.00

If this was a horse, it would put out of its misery

 

[MtnBiker]

If this was a horse, it would put out of its misery

Great idea!

Let's apply it to this thread as well.

 

[red states rule]

Time Mag Flashback: 1974 Issue Warns of Man-Made 'Global Cooling'
Posted by Greg Sheffield on July 24, 2006 - 10:48.
Do you want to know the real reason there is global warming now? It's because people in 1974 panicked about news that humans were actually causing "global cooling." To remedy the situation, countries upped their pollution and cut down more trees. But now it's gotten too hot again.

Entertainment Weekly said that Al Gore's movie "An Inconvenient Truth" had done the "inconceivable," it "made Al Gore cool." If Al Gore can save us from the next crisis, and make world temperatures be as "cool" as he is, maybe a future leader who is "hot" can save us from the next "global cooling" catastrophe.

From the Jun 24, 1974, Time Magazine, entitled: "Another Ice Age?"

As they review the bizarre and unpredictable weather pattern of the past several years, a growing number of scientists are beginning to suspect that many seemingly contradictory meteorological fluctuations are actually part of a global climatic upheaval. However widely the weather varies from place to place and time to time, when meteorologists take an average of temperatures around the globe they find that the atmosphere has been growing gradually cooler for the past three decades. The trend shows no indication of reversing. Climatological Cassandras are becoming increasingly apprehensive, for the weather aberrations they are studying may be the harbinger of another ice age.
Telltale signs are everywhere —from the unexpected persistence and thickness of pack ice in the waters around Iceland to the southward migration of a warmth-loving creature like the armadillo from the Midwest.Since the 1940s the mean global temperature has dropped about 2.7° F. Although that figure is at best an estimate, it is supported by other convincing data. When Climatologist George J. Kukla of Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory and his wife Helena analyzed satellite weather data for the Northern Hemisphere, they found that the area of the ice and snow cover had suddenly increased by 12% in 1971 and the increase has persisted ever since. Areas of Baffin Island in the Canadian Arctic, for example, were once totally free of any snow in summer; now they are covered year round.

Scientists have found other indications of global cooling. For one thing there has been a noticeable expansion of the great belt of dry, high-altitude polar winds —the so-called circumpolar vortex—that sweep from west to east around the top and bottom of the world. Indeed it is the widening of this cap of cold air that is the immediate cause of Africa's drought. By blocking moisture-bearing equatorial winds and preventing them from bringing rainfall to the parched sub-Sahara region, as well as other drought-ridden areas stretching all the way from Central America to the Middle East and India, the polar winds have in effect caused the Sahara and other deserts to reach farther to the south. Paradoxically, the same vortex has created quite different weather quirks in the U.S. and other temperate zones. As the winds swirl around the globe, their southerly portions undulate like the bottom of a skirt. Cold air is pulled down across the Western U.S. and warm air is swept up to the Northeast. The collision of air masses of widely differing temperatures and humidity can create violent storms—the Midwest's recent rash of disastrous tornadoes, for example.

Sunspot Cycle. The changing weather is apparently connected with differences in the amount of energy that the earth's surface receives from the sun. Changes in the earth's tilt and distance from the sun could, for instance, significantly increase or decrease the amount of solar radiation falling on either hemisphere—thereby altering the earth's climate. Some observers have tried to connect the eleven-year sunspot cycle with climate patterns, but have so far been unable to provide a satisfactory explanation of how the cycle might be involved.

Man, too, may be somewhat responsible for the cooling trend. The University of Wisconsin's Reid A. Bryson and other climatologists suggest that dust and other particles released into the atmosphere as a result of farming and fuel burning may be blocking more and more sunlight from reaching and heating the surface of the earth.

Climatic Balance. Some scientists like Donald Oilman, chief of the National Weather Service's long-range-prediction group, think that the cooling trend may be only temporary. But all agree that vastly more information is needed about the major influences on the earth's climate. Indeed, it is to gain such knowledge that 38 ships and 13 aircraft, carrying scientists from almost 70 nations, are now assembling in the Atlantic and elsewhere for a massive 100-day study of the effects of the tropical seas and atmosphere on worldwide weather. The study itself is only part of an international scientific effort known acronymically as GARP (for Global Atmospheric Research Program).

Whatever the cause of the cooling trend, its effects could be extremely serious, if not catastrophic. Scientists figure that only a 1% decrease in the amount of sunlight hitting the earth's surface could tip the climatic balance, and cool the planet enough to send it sliding down the road to another ice age within only a few hundred years.

The earth's current climate is something of an anomaly; in the past 700,000 years, there have been at least seven major episodes of glaciers spreading over much of the planet. Temperatures have been as high as they are now only about 5% of the time. But there is a peril more immediate than the prospect of another ice age. Even if temperature and rainfall patterns change only slightly in the near future in one or more of the three major grain-exporting countries—the U.S., Canada and Australia —global food stores would be sharply reduced. University of Toronto Climatologist Kenneth Hare, a former president of the Royal Meteorological Society, believes that the continuing drought and the recent failure of the Russian harvest gave the world a grim premonition of what might happen. Warns Hare: "I don't believe that the world's present population is sustainable if there are more than three years like 1972 in a row."


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