According to the swing state polls Obama is set to win a second term

[emilynghiem]

Funny thing is when Obama loses I know you will be okay.

If Obama stays I can't say the same thing with any confidence.

Stop being hyperbolic. We will all be fine either way....I'll just be happier

Tell that to the folks suffring in NYC and New Jersey.

I personally like you but it's pretty clear you're not tuned into reality. As long as you're not directly effected you could care less. I have friends in harms' way. I don't take this lightly.

If Obama wins, the Republican/conservative/business base that COULD have been investing their resources with greater CONFIDENCE in rebuilding economies and jobs will waste even more money lobbying to either impeach Obama, or fight the health care implementations, etc.

If Republicans win, the Democrats will threaten to waste money fighting them politically, instead of investing directly in the education and executive orders that Obama issued, as we SHOULD HAVE IN THE FIRST PLACE -- working locally instead of mandating from DC.

I'd rather fight the second fight, and lobby Obama and Democrats to pay back all their funding they raised to campaign and invest into LOCAL programs to fulfill goals directly!
While the Republicans work on supporting business plans instead of fighting politically too!

 

[AceRothstein]

Ever poll is based on modeling the 2008 election. All of them.

Lie. Polls don't model against prior elections.

 

[Foxfyre]

Ever poll is based on modeling the 2008 election. All of them.

Lie. Polls don't model against prior elections.

Not a lie. Many of the current polls, most especially those conducted by media organizations, are weighting their polls according to the 2008 turnout. And of course if the voting demographics are much different, and by all indications they will be, most of these polls will be nowhere near accurate re the actual vote.

 

[francoHFW]

OP- Thank God, I hope they're right. Romney the lying W clone would be a disaster for the country andvthe world. See BBC- fighting for the soul of America.

 

[AceRothstein]

Ever poll is based on modeling the 2008 election. All of them.

Lie. Polls don't model against prior elections.

Not a lie. Many of the current polls, most especially those conducted by media organizations, are weighting their polls according to the 2008 turnout. And of course if the voting demographics are much different, and by all indications they will be, most of these polls will be nowhere near accurate re the actual vote.

Pollsters DO NOT weight by prior election turnout. They sample by census demographics and that is it. No matter how many times this lie is sprouted that they base their numbers on prior election turnout is made doesn't mean it will come true.

 

[Katzndogz]

Stop being hyperbolic. We will all be fine either way....I'll just be happier

Tell that to the folks suffring in NYC and New Jersey.

I personally like you but it's pretty clear you're not tuned into reality. As long as you're not directly effected you could care less. I have friends in harms' way. I don't take this lightly.

If Obama wins, the Republican/conservative/business base that COULD have been investing their resources with greater CONFIDENCE in rebuilding economies and jobs will waste even more money lobbying to either impeach Obama, or fight the health care implementations, etc.

If Republicans win, the Democrats will threaten to waste money fighting them politically, instead of investing directly in the education and executive orders that Obama issued, as we SHOULD HAVE IN THE FIRST PLACE -- working locally instead of mandating from DC.

I'd rather fight the second fight, and lobby Obama and Democrats to pay back all their funding they raised to campaign and invest into LOCAL programs to fulfill goals directly!
While the Republicans work on supporting business plans instead of fighting politically too!

If obama wins, the business base will not invest resources in America, not even in lobbying efforts. You are going to see an exodus of investment and business out of this country the likes of which you have never seen before. They won't bother with impeachment or fighting healthcare. Business will do what they are doing in France. Abandon the sinking ship.

 

[theDoctorisIn]

Ever poll is based on modeling the 2008 election. All of them.

Lie. Polls don't model against prior elections.

Not a lie. Many of the current polls, most especially those conducted by media organizations, are weighting their polls according to the 2008 turnout. And of course if the voting demographics are much different, and by all indications they will be, most of these polls will be nowhere near accurate re the actual vote.

Where do you guys get this from? It's simply not true.

 

[emilynghiem]

As of this morning, RCP has Romney up .4%. And every single poll cited is also within the margin of error. It is a dead heat in the popular vote going into tomorrow's election. And the polls in almost all of the swing states are equally non conclusive.

Yes, I also heard Obama has .5 to 1 point lead
He has the advantage as incumbent. And the chances of mass population/voter fraud being on the side of Democrats and their lobbyist groups.

The Republicans have underreported support from Tea Party outreach that is not covered in the news until after election results; and also the evangelical/faith groups that have been teaming up to mobilize voters. The fact that groups have put differences aside (such as Log Cabin republicans and ultra-conservative Christian voters) in order to put the economy first, might get enough new or cross over voters out to support Romney this time.

I hope whatever unites people for the right reasons is rewarded, and not whoever is voting for revenge or other negative reasons. I believe God wants us to grow as a nation, and will use all things, such as this whole election process, to further our education and growth.

I believe it is a good sign that so many people who never voted before, never thought they would have representation or stake in the process, are suddenly getting involved and educated. But in that process, you can't have first time students running the school or it falls apart; you have to have the more experienced people teaching and mentoring the newer participants so we can move forward and not sabotage our own interests.

Whatever positions both Obama and Romney need to take in order to lead the nation and respective parties to grow and work together, that is where this process is heading. When we all agree that everyone needs to contribute, and quit overrelying on others to pay or do all the work, then it will be easier to organize resources to achieve this effectively.

As a Democrat, I cannot repeat enough how fellow Democrat and party leaders tend to work more effectively on local levels of representation, in "intake" of input from constituents on a mass scale including diverse groups so no one is left out; while the Republicans who believe in limited govt are better for checking the govt to make sure more governance is handled locally, with more direct accountability, instead of depending on top down mgmt. If the two parties or styles of leadership "work together" in partnership to balance things, this prevents govt from getting "deadlocked" by political competition, or "overburdened" where the resources don't flow freely to keep the system sustainable but are blocked by excess regulation from govt trying to mandate too much that should be handled locally instead.

So I believe Republicans like Romney would make better Presidents, and the Democrats would balance this by electing more reps in the House, Senate and States to operate and organize programs locally instead of bogging down federal govt with contested mandates.

 

[AceRothstein]

Lie. Polls don't model against prior elections.

Not a lie. Many of the current polls, most especially those conducted by media organizations, are weighting their polls according to the 2008 turnout. And of course if the voting demographics are much different, and by all indications they will be, most of these polls will be nowhere near accurate re the actual vote.

Where do you guys get this from? It's simply not true.

The Unskewedpolls guy started it and all the cons have been running with it since.

 

[NYcarbineer]

Obama is leading in Ohio by 2.8 points - realclear average.

I wasn't able to find any case where a presidential candidate leading in any state poll final average by at least 2 points went on to lose the state,

so if Obama does it will be a historic against all odds win there for Romney.

 

[emilynghiem]

If Obama wins, the Republican/conservative/business base that COULD have been investing their resources with greater CONFIDENCE in rebuilding economies and jobs will waste even more money lobbying to either impeach Obama, or fight the health care implementations, etc.

If Republicans win, the Democrats will threaten to waste money fighting them politically, instead of investing directly in the education and executive orders that Obama issued, as we SHOULD HAVE IN THE FIRST PLACE -- working locally instead of mandating from DC.

I'd rather fight the second fight, and lobby Obama and Democrats to pay back all their funding they raised to campaign and invest into LOCAL programs to fulfill goals directly!
While the Republicans work on supporting business plans instead of fighting politically too!

If obama wins, the business base will not invest resources in America, not even in lobbying efforts. You are going to see an exodus of investment and business out of this country the likes of which you have never seen before. They won't bother with impeachment or fighting healthcare. Business will do what they are doing in France. Abandon the sinking ship.

Instead of lobbying to impeach Obama or reform/repeal the insurance mandate, I believe we will move toward financial secession, where businesses and individuals will organize to invest in their own programs as either churches/businesses, deduct the taxes 100%, and quit giving to govt. Build and invest in solutions you believe in, and pay for that instead of paying the feds. If everyone does htis, the IRS cannot audit and stop everyone, especially if it is done legally.

 

[Foxfyre]

Lie. Polls don't model against prior elections.

Not a lie. Many of the current polls, most especially those conducted by media organizations, are weighting their polls according to the 2008 turnout. And of course if the voting demographics are much different, and by all indications they will be, most of these polls will be nowhere near accurate re the actual vote.

Where do you guys get this from? It's simply not true.

It is true. Here for instance is how Gallup does it:

After Gallup collects and processes survey data, each respondent is assigned a weight so that the demographic characteristics of the total weighted sample of respondents match the latest estimates of the demographic characteristics of the adult population available from the U.S. Census Bureau. Gallup weights data to census estimates for gender, race, age, educational attainment, and region.
Public Opinion Polls: How does Gallup Polling Work?

Here's a crash course:

National political polls are done by various private companies that handle the wording of questions, sampling and the weight of results differently for each poll. Be very wary of trying to compare national political polls with advice from an experienced political blogger in this free video on polling.

Read more: Video: How National Political Polls Work | eHow.com Video: How National Political Polls Work | eHow.com

 

[Katzndogz]

If Obama wins, the Republican/conservative/business base that COULD have been investing their resources with greater CONFIDENCE in rebuilding economies and jobs will waste even more money lobbying to either impeach Obama, or fight the health care implementations, etc.

If Republicans win, the Democrats will threaten to waste money fighting them politically, instead of investing directly in the education and executive orders that Obama issued, as we SHOULD HAVE IN THE FIRST PLACE -- working locally instead of mandating from DC.

I'd rather fight the second fight, and lobby Obama and Democrats to pay back all their funding they raised to campaign and invest into LOCAL programs to fulfill goals directly!
While the Republicans work on supporting business plans instead of fighting politically too!

If obama wins, the business base will not invest resources in America, not even in lobbying efforts. You are going to see an exodus of investment and business out of this country the likes of which you have never seen before. They won't bother with impeachment or fighting healthcare. Business will do what they are doing in France. Abandon the sinking ship.

Instead of lobbying to impeach Obama or reform/repeal the insurance mandate, I believe we will move toward financial secession, where businesses and individuals will organize to invest in their own programs as either churches/businesses, deduct the taxes 100%, and quit giving to govt. Build and invest in solutions you believe in, and pay for that instead of paying the feds. If everyone does htis, the IRS cannot audit and stop everyone, especially if it is done legally.

People will just find ways to not pay taxes at all. Or, refuse, which is what happened in Greece. But in this country, businesses, skilled workers, and anyone who can pack a bag is going to get out.

 

[AceRothstein]

Not a lie. Many of the current polls, most especially those conducted by media organizations, are weighting their polls according to the 2008 turnout. And of course if the voting demographics are much different, and by all indications they will be, most of these polls will be nowhere near accurate re the actual vote.

Where do you guys get this from? It's simply not true.

It is true. Here for instance is how Gallup does it:

After Gallup collects and processes survey data, each respondent is assigned a weight so that the demographic characteristics of the total weighted sample of respondents match the latest estimates of the demographic characteristics of the adult population available from the U.S. Census Bureau. Gallup weights data to census estimates for gender, race, age, educational attainment, and region.
Public Opinion Polls: How does Gallup Polling Work?

Here's a crash course:

National political polls are done by various private companies that handle the wording of questions, sampling and the weight of results differently for each poll. Be very wary of trying to compare national political polls with advice from an experienced political blogger in this free video on polling.

Read more: Video: How National Political Polls Work | eHow.com Video: How National Political Polls Work | eHow.com

You've confirmed what I've said. They sample/weight to meet demographics but not party.

 

[theDoctorisIn]

Not a lie. Many of the current polls, most especially those conducted by media organizations, are weighting their polls according to the 2008 turnout. And of course if the voting demographics are much different, and by all indications they will be, most of these polls will be nowhere near accurate re the actual vote.

Where do you guys get this from? It's simply not true.

It is true. Here for instance is how Gallup does it:

After Gallup collects and processes survey data, each respondent is assigned a weight so that the demographic characteristics of the total weighted sample of respondents match the latest estimates of the demographic characteristics of the adult population available from the U.S. Census Bureau. Gallup weights data to census estimates for gender, race, age, educational attainment, and region.
Public Opinion Polls: How does Gallup Polling Work?

Here's a crash course:

National political polls are done by various private companies that handle the wording of questions, sampling and the weight of results differently for each poll. Be very wary of trying to compare national political polls with advice from an experienced political blogger in this free video on polling.

Read more: Video: How National Political Polls Work | eHow.com Video: How National Political Polls Work | eHow.com

I don't see anything about "weighing turnout based on the previous election" in there, which is what I was talking about.

Polling is never weighted by self-identified party registration - because that's far too fluid a metric.

 

[Foxfyre]

Where do you guys get this from? It's simply not true.

It is true. Here for instance is how Gallup does it:



Here's a crash course:

National political polls are done by various private companies that handle the wording of questions, sampling and the weight of results differently for each poll. Be very wary of trying to compare national political polls with advice from an experienced political blogger in this free video on polling.

Read more: Video: How National Political Polls Work | eHow.com Video: How National Political Polls Work | eHow.com

You've confirmed what I've said. They sample/weight to meet demographics but not party.

Political party is one of the demographics that is used in the weighting. They do the sampling of 400 people polled or 1000 people polled or whatever and then weight the results according to some pre-determined criteria. In the case of most of the media polls, they weight their sampling according to the demographic breakdown, including political party, that was the case in the 2008 election. So if fewer blacks or fewer Catholics or fewer Democrats or more or fewer of any particular demographic votes in the 2012 election, their polling data will moist likley be off by that much.

 

[AceRothstein]

It is true. Here for instance is how Gallup does it:



Here's a crash course:

You've confirmed what I've said. They sample/weight to meet demographics but not party.

Political party is one of the demographics that is used in the weighting. They do the sampling of 400 people polled or 1000 people polled or whatever and then weight the results according to some pre-determined criteria. In the case of most of the media polls, they weight their sampling according to the demographic breakdown, including political party, that was the case in the 2008 election. So if fewer blacks or fewer Catholics or fewer Democrats or more or fewer of any particular demographic votes in the 2012 election, their polling data will moist likley be off by that much.

Nope, they don't weight/sample by party. That isn't a pre-determined criteria, it is an answer that the respondents provide.

 

[theDoctorisIn]

It is true. Here for instance is how Gallup does it:



Here's a crash course:

You've confirmed what I've said. They sample/weight to meet demographics but not party.

Political party is one of the demographics that is used in the weighting.

No, it isn't.

They do the sampling of 400 people polled or 1000 people polled or whatever and then weight the results according to some pre-determined criteria. In the case of most of the media polls, they weight their sampling according to the demographic breakdown, including political party, that was the case in the 2008 election.

Also, not true. Polls are certainly weighed by demographic information, but party identification is fluid, not constant. People who were black in 2008 are likely to still be black, so race is used as a demographic for weighing. Similar with age, and socio-economic indicators. But party identification is fluid.

So if fewer blacks or fewer Catholics or fewer Democrats or more or fewer of any particular demographic votes in the 2012 election, their polling data will moist likley be off by that much.

As I pointed out above, people's party identification changes, whereas race and religion generally don't. Which is why polls DON'T weigh by party identification.

 

[thanatos144]

Tomorrow will be a busy day for me....I have to work then go vote then I have to go home and make dinner and when I wake up Obama will have been given the pink slip....News will be talking about the protests screaming theft of the election and some stupid shit about counting every vote with burning cars in the backdrop.

 

[Foxfyre]

You've confirmed what I've said. They sample/weight to meet demographics but not party.

Political party is one of the demographics that is used in the weighting.

No, it isn't.

They do the sampling of 400 people polled or 1000 people polled or whatever and then weight the results according to some pre-determined criteria. In the case of most of the media polls, they weight their sampling according to the demographic breakdown, including political party, that was the case in the 2008 election.

Also, not true. Polls are certainly weighed by demographic information, but party identification is fluid, not constant. People who were black in 2008 are likely to still be black, so race is used as a demographic for weighing. Similar with age, and socio-economic indicators. But party identification is fluid.

So if fewer blacks or fewer Catholics or fewer Democrats or more or fewer of any particular demographic votes in the 2012 election, their polling data will moist likley be off by that much.

As I pointed out above, people's party identification changes, whereas race and religion generally don't. Which is why polls DON'T weigh by party identification.

Party identification is often the most important demographnic in poll weighting when the polls are to evaluate whether one candidate is ahead of another.

http://courses.ttu.edu/hdfs3390-reifman/weighting.htm

The demographics are divided into those who identify as Republicans and Democrats with everybody else thrown into the Independents division.