2016 GE: Hillary Clinton vs. GOP Field, Part VI

[Statistikhengst]

Hillary Clinton (D)​

This thread title says "Part VI", because five other reports precede it, but not necessarily all of them here at this forum.

The report is VERY large and you can find it at my politics blog:

Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond: 2016 GE: Hillary Clinton vs. GOP Field, Part VI

At that link to my pollitics blog, a link to an EXCEL TABLE that has every polling matchup bis dato, recorded and hyperlinked.

In report no. VI, you will see:

1.) the number of polls for Hillary vs. prospective GOP candidates, to-date, also by wins/losses/ties. 252 polls.
2.) the number of matchups for Hillary vs. prospective GOP candidates, to-date. 861 matchups.

Both of those data sets are also broken down into national polls/matchups and state polls/matchups.

3.) the number and names of all 33 polling instititutions that have conducted polling for 2016 to-date.
4.) the number and names of all 24 prospective GOP candidates who have been polled, by state, divided into three tiers.

5.) A screenshot example of how the excel table looks and how to interpret the values correctly. LOTS of data is provided in the EXCEL TABLE, as I said, all of it sourced per hyperlink. The excel table also has FAV/UFAV numbers and most (but not all) DEM nomination numbers in addition to the matchups. Also, survey group size, type of voters, MoE, the usual but necessary stuff.

6.) An analysis based on 6 key points: the Quintifecta, the "Clinton 6 states", former Battlegrounds that are already showing penumbra for Hillary or moving toward the GOP, some "bastion" states, national polling and my "wish-list".

There are tables and maps also embedded in the report, for reference.

I quote from the beginning of the report:

This report is NOT here to proclaim that Hillary is going to win, no matter what. This report IS continuing a baseline that I started to build 2 years ago. That being said, it shows amazing consistency in polling for the former First Lady of the USA, former Senator from the great state of New York and former Secretary of State of the USA. This report simply shows the numbers, ALL of the numbers. Until October of 2015, I will not be calculating any polling averages, unless of course an avalanche of polling starts in key states. Some Conservatives express displeasure when they see such a report, but they are being short-sighted: a baseline is only valuable when you see ALL of it, meaning, that should Hillary's fortunes change, we will be able to record that as well. Again, these are just the numbers, as they are right now.

And from the end Facit:

Facit: it's Hillary's election to have, if she wants it. If she declares (and I am more than reasonably sure she will declare), then she is the prohibitive front runner both for her party's nomination and also against any and all comers from the GOP.

Factors working against the GOP are the fact that Obama literally cemented Virginia into the Democratic column by winning the state not just once, but twice, against all conventional wisdom, and current polling is showing this state to be a solidly blue state. This GOP is going to have to fight to regain this state, which means less time, money and resources for other states, like Ohio and Pennsylvania.....If Hillary only wins the states that were common DEM states between Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, then she is already at 290 EV (shown in the Clinton 6 link above, here is the link again). I see a real possibility for Hillary Clinton to go slightly over 400 EV in 2016. States like Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, Arkansas, Kentucky, Arizona, Kansas, South Dakota and even Alaska could become battlegrounds. North Carolina WILL be a battleground.

Those are the current polling statistics. Update in May/June 2015.

What the report does not do is to discuss issues or their impact on any campaigns. It simply shows the numbers, and believe me, there are a whole lot of them.

Because a major poll from Pennyslvania should come out in the next days, it will be a good way to compare new data to this now very large baseline.

I encourage you to go read the entire report before commenting. Believe me, GOP statisticians are looking at these numbers just as hard as I or any other hard-core electoral buffs. Plenty of food for thought in the report.

-Stat

 

[rightwinger]

Hillary can still be beaten

I think the public is tired of her. But that doesn't mean a Republican can beat her.
Hillary represents the past, stale old politics
If Republicans run someone who breaks the mold and addresses the America of the future, they can win

But that doesn't sound very conservative

 

[Statistikhengst]

A good point to start an adult conversation, I would suggest, could be probing as to why I even take time to also analyse "bastion" states and not just the expected battlegrounds.

Or some questions or maybe even predictions from members about my so-called "wish list". But you gotta go to the link and read in order to know what I mean...

 

[Statistikhengst]

Hillary can still be beaten

I think the public is tired of her. But that doesn't mean a Republican can beat her.
Hillary represents the past, stale old politics
If Republicans run someone who breaks the mold and addresses the America of the future, they can win

But that doesn't sound very conservative

Sure, I'm not saying it can't happen. I am only presenting the numbers, ALL of them.

Go to the link.

And in honor of CrusaderFrank , please let me quote you in advance:

"Hillary Clinton is not going to be the DEM nominee."

 

[JoeB131]

Hillary's biggest problem is still her lack of likeability.

The GOP needs to nominate someone who is really charismatic, who hasn't said a lot of crazy shit.

 

[rightwinger]

Hillary's biggest problem is still her lack of likeability.

The GOP needs to nominate someone who is really charismatic, who hasn't said a lot of crazy shit.

I agree, Hillary needs Bill with her to light up a room

But if Republicans still plan to run against her with BENGHAZI, blowjobs and that she is a scary old hag they will get people to rally round her and lose by bigger margins than they lost to Obama

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Hillary can still be beaten

I think the public is tired of her. But that doesn't mean a Republican can beat her.
Hillary represents the past, stale old politics
If Republicans run someone who breaks the mold and addresses the America of the future, they can win

But that doesn't sound very conservative

Sure, I'm not saying it can't happen. I am only presenting the numbers, ALL of them.

Go to the link.

And in honor of CrusaderFrank , please let me quote you in advance:

"Hillary Clinton is not going to be the DEM nominee."

Thank you, my Friend.

She looks really old in the OP.

Also, have you looked at HER cheekbones? She may have some Cherokee in her as well

 

[jon_berzerk]

Hillary can still be beaten

I think the public is tired of her. But that doesn't mean a Republican can beat her.
Hillary represents the past, stale old politics
If Republicans run someone who breaks the mold and addresses the America of the future, they can win

But that doesn't sound very conservative

Sure, I'm not saying it can't happen. I am only presenting the numbers, ALL of them.

Go to the link.

And in honor of CrusaderFrank , please let me quote you in advance:

"Hillary Clinton is not going to be the DEM nominee."

Thank you, my Friend.

She looks really old in the OP.

Also, have you looked at HER cheekbones? She may have some Cherokee in her as well

plus she may have rekindle her story of landing

in Bosnia under sniper fire

--LOL

 

[Esmeralda]

Hillary can still be beaten

I think the public is tired of her. But that doesn't mean a Republican can beat her.
Hillary represents the past, stale old politics
If Republicans run someone who breaks the mold and addresses the America of the future, they can win

But that doesn't sound very conservative

Sure, I'm not saying it can't happen. I am only presenting the numbers, ALL of them.

Go to the link.

And in honor of CrusaderFrank , please let me quote you in advance:

"Hillary Clinton is not going to be the DEM nominee."

Thank you, my Friend.

She looks really old in the OP.

Also, have you looked at HER cheekbones? She may have some Cherokee in her as well

She doesn't look as old as McCain looked when he ran. It is apparently okay for a man running for president to look old, but not a woman. Will the American public ever be mature enough to elect a female president?

 

[Derideo_Te]

Hillary can still be beaten

I think the public is tired of her. But that doesn't mean a Republican can beat her.
Hillary represents the past, stale old politics
If Republicans run someone who breaks the mold and addresses the America of the future, they can win

But that doesn't sound very conservative

Yes, I agree, because Obama beat her by representing something different from the past, stale old politics.

There is a possibility that Rand Paul could be that "something different". He has been moving to the center and even reaching out to the left on the college level with his "libertarian idealism" and that is fertile ground for him because very few of those voters have the real life experience to know that it doesn't work.

And yes, the GOP establishment could opt to sell the "libertarian platform" since it closely matched to what they want as far as deregulation and the economy are concerned. It will come unglued on the social issues because genuine libertarianism means endorsing gay marriage, legalizing marijuana, amnesty for illegals, etc, etc. How they address that hurdle and keep the extreme right on board remains to be seen.

So the concept is fascinating and I agree that it is a possibility for 2016 but it will be a hard sell in the primaries.

 

[gipper]

If Americans elect a Clinton or a Bush in 2016, they are much dumber than I ever believed.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Hillary's biggest problem is still her lack of likeability.

The GOP needs to nominate someone who is really charismatic, who hasn't said a lot of crazy shit.

I agree, Hillary needs Bill with her to light up a room

But if Republicans still plan to run against her with BENGHAZI, blowjobs and that she is a scary old hag they will get people to rally round her and lose by bigger margins than they lost to Obama

Which is exactly what the current numbers are showing. Hillary is doing considerably better in all the states where it really counts than Obama did in 2012.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Hillary can still be beaten

I think the public is tired of her. But that doesn't mean a Republican can beat her.
Hillary represents the past, stale old politics
If Republicans run someone who breaks the mold and addresses the America of the future, they can win

But that doesn't sound very conservative

Sure, I'm not saying it can't happen. I am only presenting the numbers, ALL of them.

Go to the link.

And in honor of CrusaderFrank , please let me quote you in advance:

"Hillary Clinton is not going to be the DEM nominee."

Thank you, my Friend.

She looks really old in the OP.

Also, have you looked at HER cheekbones? She may have some Cherokee in her as well

You are welcome, mon ami.

Old can also mean sage.

Besides, this dude likes cougars!!!



I said "cougars", not "cankles".

Did you actually read the data??

 

[Derideo_Te]

Hillary's biggest problem is still her lack of likeability.

The GOP needs to nominate someone who is really charismatic, who hasn't said a lot of crazy shit.

Hilary is going to become "America's Grandmother". There will be ads and pictures of her with her granddaughter and it will be a major selling point. That strategy turns around the GOP attack that she is "too old" and it negates her "lack of likability". Makes it really hard for the GOP to attack her personally too since it makes them look bad for "beating up granny". Oh, and then there is the hypocrisy angle since plenty of presidents have been grandfathers.

 

[SteadyMercury]

There is a possibility that Rand Paul could be that "something different". He has been moving to the center

Yup he's no dummy, he's seen how refusing to soften your views for mainstream appeal worked out for Dad every four years... online straw poll stud, voting booth dud.

I'm still amazed that Romney is actually fritzing around the edges of this thing.

 

[rightwinger]

Hillary's biggest problem is still her lack of likeability.

The GOP needs to nominate someone who is really charismatic, who hasn't said a lot of crazy shit.

Hilary is going to become "America's Grandmother". There will be ads and pictures of her with her granddaughter and it will be a major selling point. That strategy turns around the GOP attack that she is "too old" and it negates her "lack of likability". Makes it really hard for the GOP to attack her personally too since it makes them look bad for "beating up granny". Oh, and then there is the hypocrisy angle since plenty of presidents have been grandfathers.

If Republicans run on how old and ugly she has become, the public will rally around her. Turn her into a victim, you lose

Republucans need to remind the public that they really don't like Hillary and run someone the public does like

But who do Republicans have that is likeable?

 

[Derideo_Te]

There is a possibility that Rand Paul could be that "something different". He has been moving to the center

Yup he's no dummy, he's seen how refusing to soften your views for mainstream appeal worked out for Dad every four years... online straw poll stud, voting booth dud.

I'm still amazed that Romney is actually fritzing around the edges of this thing.

That is because Republicans prefer him over Jeb and Christie according to the latest polls.

 

[Derideo_Te]

Hillary's biggest problem is still her lack of likeability.

The GOP needs to nominate someone who is really charismatic, who hasn't said a lot of crazy shit.

Hilary is going to become "America's Grandmother". There will be ads and pictures of her with her granddaughter and it will be a major selling point. That strategy turns around the GOP attack that she is "too old" and it negates her "lack of likability". Makes it really hard for the GOP to attack her personally too since it makes them look bad for "beating up granny". Oh, and then there is the hypocrisy angle since plenty of presidents have been grandfathers.

If Republicans run on how old and ugly she has become, the public will rally around her. Turn her into a victim, you lose

Republucans need to remind the public that they really don't like Hillary and run someone the public does like

But who do Republicans have that is likeable?

Excellent question because Romney was/is considerably less likable than Hilary. Christie's nasty side will come out and turn people off. Jeb probably has the smarts to be "likable" but he is too "liberal" and has a great deal of "baggage". Rand Paul still strikes me as being the most likely GOP candidate but he will have a hard time against Hilary in the debates. That will be where his "libertarian" positions will unravel under hard scrutiny.

Maybe Kasich can step up to the plate?

 

[BULLDOG]

Hillary's biggest problem is still her lack of likeability.

The GOP needs to nominate someone who is really charismatic, who hasn't said a lot of crazy shit.

Can you name one republican who hasn't said a lot of crazy shit?

 

[rightwinger]

Hillary's biggest problem is still her lack of likeability.

The GOP needs to nominate someone who is really charismatic, who hasn't said a lot of crazy shit.

Hilary is going to become "America's Grandmother". There will be ads and pictures of her with her granddaughter and it will be a major selling point. That strategy turns around the GOP attack that she is "too old" and it negates her "lack of likability". Makes it really hard for the GOP to attack her personally too since it makes them look bad for "beating up granny". Oh, and then there is the hypocrisy angle since plenty of presidents have been grandfathers.

If Republicans run on how old and ugly she has become, the public will rally around her. Turn her into a victim, you lose

Republucans need to remind the public that they really don't like Hillary and run someone the public does like

But who do Republicans have that is likeable?

Excellent question because Romney was/is considerably less likable than Hilary. Christie's nasty side will come out and turn people off. Jeb probably has the smarts to be "likable" but he is too "liberal" and has a great deal of "baggage". Rand Paul still strikes me as being the most likely GOP candidate but he will have a hard time against Hilary in the debates. That will be where his "libertarian" positions will unravel under hard scrutiny.

Maybe Kasich can step up to the plate?

Of the bunch, I see only Jeb capable of taking Florida from Hillary. If Hillary takes Florida, the election is over

Is Jeb likeable? He lacks the personality of W but seems more intelligent. He is not a great speaker and doesn't inspire

But I still see him as the GOPs best shot