2 remarkable facts that illustrate solar power’s declining cost
That annual report (which I covered in
this post) covers the development of renewable energy in emerging nations. It shows, among other things, that those countries, led by China, are now investing more in renewable energy and installing more renewable energy capacity than developed nations.
It also shows that, thanks to recent cost declines, the capital costs of new solar in emerging economies has nudged down barely below the costs of new wind:
(
Bloomberg)
As Randall says, “solar was bound to fall below wind eventually, given its steeper price declines, [but] few predicted it would happen this soon.”
Keep in mind, this is only capex — capital costs. The total cost of energy wind produces for emerging nations is still cheaper, because wind turbines produce more output per megawatt of capacity than solar panels. (They have a higher “capacity factor,” in the lingo.) But it is an impressive milestone nonetheless.
It is one reason that solar PV capacity is set to outpace wind for the first time this year. In a year-end
note, BNEF chair Michael Liebreich says, “the latest projections from our solar and wind analysis teams are that there will be almost 70 gigawatts of photovoltaics added globally in 2016, up from 56 gigawatts in 2015, and that wind installations will total 59 gigawatts, down from 62 gigawatts last year.”
Together, wind and utility-scale solar are now the cheapest available energy sources in the places that are building the most of them. Liebreich says bluntly, “renewable energy will beat any other technology in most of the world without subsidies.”
The cost of the renewables is far less to install, and you don't need railroad spurs or pipelines to the site. And the fuel is free. Combine that with the new grid scale batteries, and Solar and Wind are 24/7. From here on, renewables are less costly than fossil fuels.