Will the PIGS slop our economy too?

The Rabbi

Diamond Member
Joined
Sep 16, 2009
Messages
67,602
Reaction score
7,864
Points
1,840
Location
Nashville
With Greece probably about to default, and downgradings with Spain, Portugal, and Italy in the works, what are the chances of that economic crisis spilling over and causing a double dip recession in this country? Added to that the potential default by California, Michigan, and New York the economy is looking less than stellar.
 

Old Rocks

Diamond Member
Joined
Oct 31, 2008
Messages
59,352
Reaction score
7,232
Points
1,840
Location
Portland, Ore.
Naw, we got the Republicans out of office. We will do the neccessary things to prevent a meltdown, against united Republican opposition, of course.
 
OP
The Rabbi

The Rabbi

Diamond Member
Joined
Sep 16, 2009
Messages
67,602
Reaction score
7,864
Points
1,840
Location
Nashville
Naw, we got the Republicans out of office. We will do the neccessary things to prevent a meltdown, against united Republican opposition, of course.
You mean throwing unprecedented levels of borrowed money at failing entities and creating speculative bubbles? Yeah, that's a plan all right:cuckoo:
 

william the wie

Gold Member
Joined
Nov 18, 2009
Messages
16,667
Reaction score
2,383
Points
280
Two corrections Rabbi, the Spanish banking system is in excellent shape with a huge bond sales franchise in Latin America that somewhat insulates Spain from the international bond market and you didn't include Illinois in your list of states likely to default. Otherwise you are dead on.
 

Paulie

Diamond Member
Joined
May 19, 2007
Messages
40,408
Reaction score
5,955
Points
1,830
What are you guys talking about, the DOW is at 11,000 :lol:
 

Toro

Diamond Member
Joined
Sep 29, 2005
Messages
79,515
Reaction score
17,340
Points
2,180
Location
Surfing the Oceans of Liquidity
Maybe. Sovereign defaults are serious.

Greece is irrelevant. What matters is if it spreads to the rest of the EU.

I bought gold today.
 
OP
The Rabbi

The Rabbi

Diamond Member
Joined
Sep 16, 2009
Messages
67,602
Reaction score
7,864
Points
1,840
Location
Nashville
Two corrections Rabbi, the Spanish banking system is in excellent shape with a huge bond sales franchise in Latin America that somewhat insulates Spain from the international bond market and you didn't include Illinois in your list of states likely to default. Otherwise you are dead on.
It's an issue of their sovereign debt.
Amid Rush to Aid Greece, Spain Looms as Bigger Problem - NYTimes.com
The country was just downgraded and potentially is much worse than Greece, being larger.
 

Big Black Dog

Gold Member
Joined
May 20, 2009
Messages
23,365
Reaction score
7,913
Points
340
At the rate Owe Bama and his dumb ass Congress are spending money, we will most likely be next to go down the tubes.
 

william the wie

Gold Member
Joined
Nov 18, 2009
Messages
16,667
Reaction score
2,383
Points
280
Two corrections Rabbi, the Spanish banking system is in excellent shape with a huge bond sales franchise in Latin America that somewhat insulates Spain from the international bond market and you didn't include Illinois in your list of states likely to default. Otherwise you are dead on.
It's an issue of their sovereign debt.
Amid Rush to Aid Greece, Spain Looms as Bigger Problem - NYTimes.com
The country was just downgraded and potentially is much worse than Greece, being larger.
Yeah I heard that today. As an apology take a look at Spanish banking in Latin America and see what kind of thread suggests itself. Hint normal arbitrage is to short the domestic bond and go long Spanish bonds.
 

Toro

Diamond Member
Joined
Sep 29, 2005
Messages
79,515
Reaction score
17,340
Points
2,180
Location
Surfing the Oceans of Liquidity
Two corrections Rabbi, the Spanish banking system is in excellent shape with a huge bond sales franchise in Latin America that somewhat insulates Spain from the international bond market and you didn't include Illinois in your list of states likely to default. Otherwise you are dead on.
It's an issue of their sovereign debt.
Amid Rush to Aid Greece, Spain Looms as Bigger Problem - NYTimes.com
The country was just downgraded and potentially is much worse than Greece, being larger.
Yeah I heard that today. As an apology take a look at Spanish banking in Latin America and see what kind of thread suggests itself. Hint normal arbitrage is to short the domestic bond and go long Spanish bonds.
Spain's deficit is lower than Greece's, its total debt is lower, more of its debt is financed internally, and there is no evidence of a massive cover-up of its liabilities, unlike Greece.

But that doesn't mean it can't succumb to contagion.
 

Neubarth

At the Ballpark July 30th
Joined
Nov 8, 2008
Messages
3,751
Reaction score
200
Points
48
Location
South Pacific
With Greece probably about to default, and downgradings with Spain, Portugal, and Italy in the works, what are the chances of that economic crisis spilling over and causing a double dip recession in this country? Added to that the potential default by California, Michigan, and New York the economy is looking less than stellar.

What is this double dip recession shit? We are still in a massive DEPRESSION with more and more people losing their jobs every day. 49 out of 50 states attest to the Depression. Their economies are worse off now than they were 12 months ago. Ain't nothing getting better other than a few manufacturing companies are actually improving sales. The rest of the nation is on its way to hell.
 
OP
The Rabbi

The Rabbi

Diamond Member
Joined
Sep 16, 2009
Messages
67,602
Reaction score
7,864
Points
1,840
Location
Nashville
Greek bailout appears to be headed for disaster. This will likely spread to other countries. Copper prices declining. Dow Jones declining.
Here comes the double dip, for those who thought we were in recovery. Or part II for those who didnt.
 

eagleseven

Quod Erat Demonstrandum
Joined
Jul 8, 2009
Messages
6,517
Reaction score
1,370
Points
48
Location
OH
There reaches a point, when things look so dismal, that nothing you say matters.
 

william the wie

Gold Member
Joined
Nov 18, 2009
Messages
16,667
Reaction score
2,383
Points
280
Greek bailout appears to be headed for disaster. This will likely spread to other countries. Copper prices declining. Dow Jones declining.
Here comes the double dip, for those who thought we were in recovery. Or part II for those who didnt.
Copper is stockpiled mostly in China. China is also raising reserve requirements on its banks while its de facto colony Australia raises taxes and interest rates. There's more than just the PIIGS in this mess.
 

Toro

Diamond Member
Joined
Sep 29, 2005
Messages
79,515
Reaction score
17,340
Points
2,180
Location
Surfing the Oceans of Liquidity
I started pairing back my euro shorts today and yesterday.

However, the euro can go a lot lower. It was 85 cents several years ago. And it is probably still over-valued. The purchasing power parity of the euro is $1.15-$1.20.

It probably isn't a tenable currency in the long-run. There are simply too many structural imbalances and not enough safety valves to release those imbalances to allow all the current members to be part of the eurozone.
 

New Topics

Most reactions - Past 7 days

Forum List

Top