Will Donald Trump run for President in 2024?
I say he will because at the moment, based on current counts, he lost by small margins in three states that could have changed the outcome of the election. Given his force of personality and control of the Republican Party, I think he is going to run for President again in 2024 and try and avenge his defeat.
People have run from prison before, so that wouldn't be a hindrance.
Whether he'd want to or not hangs heavily on what happens in the interim when he has to answer court charges and debtors. And given the wide gap between how he did and how the rest of the Republican Party did in the same election, I don't think he's quite got "control" of anything. They have no use for him now.
Actually, if the Republicans end up winning the Senate, it will likely be because of Trump. In particular it looks like Trump's potential win in North Carolina may have saved the Republican Senate seat there.
Again, many will say Trump only lost by a combined 49,000 votes in three states, just like Hillary only lost by a combined 77,000 votes in three states in 2016. Trump just had 71,108,000+ Americans vote for him. It does not seem like his popularity has been diminished.
Completely disagree --- if they win the Senate (and/or to whatever degree they hold/held), they do so/did so in spite of Rump. The numbers plainly show that. Clearly voters exhibited a repudiation of Rump and not a repudiation of "Republicans" ---- which title Rump has never qualified for anyway.
As for the Terrible Three, Biden's margin there is already well over 200,000 and climbing. Rump's absolute number increase is the inevitable result of (a) considerably higher turnout. which means more votes for everybody, and (b) dearth of any prominent third parties to siphon votes off as existed in 2016. While Rump's total increased over '16, Biden's increase over Clinton is way bigger. As Colin Jost pointed out, he lost the PV in '16 by three million votes and contrived a story of "three million illegals" coming in and voting against him, which, considering he'll lose this PV by five million, means by his own logic that Rump allowed two million MORE "illegals" in to vote against him than O'bama did.
Rump is pretty much toast. He can run if he wants to, it ain't going anywhere. The various court proceedings between now and then are going to bury him. If he doesn't flee the country altogether.
And his petulant sulking in the present is going to chip away at whatever allure he had as well. He's looking like Richard Nixon circa early 1974 right now.
Biden's margin of victory in Wisconsin, Arizona, and Georgia combined is only 48,025. A flip of those three states would have given Trump 269 electoral votes. The election would have gone to the House Of Representatives, and because of the rules of contingent elections where each state only gets one vote, Donald Trump would have won.
So were talking 3 states and a combined 48,025 votes separating Trump from victory compared to Hillary Clinton's 3 states(Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania) and 78,000 votes separating her from victory in 2016.
As for the popular vote, outside of California in the other 49 states and territories, Trump wins the popular vote at the moment with 66,389,563 votes to BIDEN's 66,269,626 votes.
I agree that if he fails to handle the transition in a professional manner, that will hurt him going forward.
The point I'm making is that Trump essentially repeated his success from 2016, the only difference being winding up on the other side of the fence in three states where the margin of victory was tiny.
What I wanted to see was a massive repudiation of Trump and Trumpism. Huge margins of victory in all battle ground states and Florida, Ohio, Iowa, North Carolina, and TEXAS all going Blue for BIDEN. An increase in the Democrats majority in the House Of Representatives and at least a 51 to 49 control of the U.S. Senate.
Unfortunately, that did not happen. Votes are still coming in, but Trump nearly repeated his victory in 2016 only missing out by a tiny margin in the three states of Arizona, Wisconsin, and Georgia. Just 48,025 votes separate him from four more years in the White House. I wanted a BLUE WAVE and total repudiation of Donald Trump. What happened is not anywhere near that.
Several simply invalid pretexts here. Biggest of which is that you don't cherrypick states out so you can then say "without California (Texas, Nebraska, whatever), THIS happens, simply because eliminating California (Texas, Nebraska, whatever) is not an option in reality. They are part of the count, like it or lump it. That's the same as saying "if we hadn't given up those 43 runs in the third inning we could have squeaked out a win here". You DID give up those 43 runs. You can play that "if only" game for eternity but we don't live in If land, we live in Reality.
The other one is that you shifted the three states from the ones originally cited to three new ones, comparing apples with oranges. But if we're suddenly switching to three new states, AridZona Wisconsin and Georgia, Rump's combined margin (over Clinton) in 2016 was roughly 343,000. If Biden's is now 48,000 that means a shift away from Rump of 391,000 votes. THAT is the direct comparison.
As for the final numbers, again what they show is that the electorate repudiated Rump and at the same time declined to repudiate Republicans as a label. And that's a good thing. Nobody wants a political party obliterated when it's the only opposition there is.