- Sep 15, 2012
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- #221
Depends on the Candidate in 2020 for the Democratic Party...
Also it will depend if someone like Sanders runs Green or Third party causing the Democrats to lose votes allowing a weaker candidate like Trump to win.
It would be the Ross Perot effect that happen when Clinton won twice while Perot took votes from the right.
So can Trump win?
Yes.
That is Trumps only path to victory in 2020. Sanders is too smart and principled to run a third party campaign that would get Trump re-elected. I think its unlikely that there will be a viable third party candidate that will split the Democratic vote in 2020. But it is the only way Trump can be re-elected in 2020. The only reason Hillary lost in 2020 is because she left the back door open in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania by not visiting and spending enough money in those states allowing Trump to eek out tiny victories in those states.
She lost in 2016.
Also she lost because of a few factors:
1. Bernie Sanders and the Wikileaks scandal that hurt the Democratic Party.
2. Jill Stein and her strong showing in States like Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
3. Her being Hillary Clinton.
No one knows how 2020 will turn out and I remember in 2004 many thought Bush would lose and he won the Popular vote and the Electoral College while America was in a unpopular war in Iraq...
So can Trump win?
Yes.
In 2004, a majority of Americans still approved of the Iraq war as well as George Bush's handling of that war. That's why George Bush was re-elected President in November 2004. Trump does not have majority support for anything based on the approval rating polls. His average of 40% approval over the past two years is lower than any President in history. George W. Bush's first term approval rating average was 62%!