Palestinian Jew said:
Realism, my friend. So far, all of my predictions I made in early 2002 have been right on. .
realism,,,last refuge of a weak arguement.
SO post those predictions here, all of em..lets us decide
Palestinian Jew said:
What are you basing that on. Mine is on General Casey's opinion that it will take 10 years to defeat the insurgency, with an average of 9 years to defeat an insurgency anyway..
Gen Casey has been wrong on alot of things in this war. If an average is 9 years, then that means some only take 5-6
Palestinian Jew said:
Plus, once the Kurds, Shi'a, and Sunnis begin a civil war, we'll have that to resolve. .....
I dont think that will happen, there are lots of reasons to believe that, for one, the SUNNI, now that they see the process is going forward are not getting involved instead of trying to stop it. The bus is pulling out, they want on.....
Palestinian Jew said:
If history is any indication, a stable democracy(Bush's goal) will not be obtainable within 10 years. .
WHy do you restrict it to a stable democracy? If in four or five years our troop level is down to around 10-15,000 maybe the American publics opinion of them being there will be different, especially if and when the casualty count drops dramatically. I noticed in those polls they didnt ask "If in four years, only 10,000 troops would be needed to ensure the peace, would you be ok with that?"
Palestinian Jew said:
Not yet. See, isn't that at least one optimistic view from me. All of the ethnic groups aren't fighting...yet. Look for a civil war within 10 years, something like Kurd vs. Shi'a vs. Sunni, with Turkey thrown in on the Shi'a/Sunni side, Iran on the Shi'a side, and Jordan/Syria probably being thrown in with the Sunni population.
Your mind is made up. You are basing your opinion on things that havent happened, you are predicting worse case scenario, THAT my friend, is pessimism. Good thing you werent around to advise General G. Washington...