JimofPennsylvan
Platinum Member
- Jun 6, 2007
- 967
- 762
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I just finished watching a good portion of Vice-President Vance's Press Conference and it occurred to me that President Trump needs an out of the Iranian war, he needs something to occur where if he indefinitely ceases military operations without a nuclear deal he won't take the blame! Because as VP Vance has said the White House's plan is either they get a nuclear deal or they commence large scale bombing operations and anyone with at least a minimal amount of knowledge of the situation on the ground in the Persian Gulf knows that if the U.S. re-starts military operations the government of Iran will retaliate by bombing Persian Gulf nation's oil infrastructure and the price of oil and natural gas and related items will massively jump in price and the pain on ordinary consumers will be severe. President Trump knows this crystal clearly that is why he has been bending over backward to avoid re-starting the bombing campaign. This all adds up to the sum that President Trump needs an out that if he isn't able to get Iran to cut a deal about a nuclear weapon he won't have to commence bombing runs and crush the world consumer; this is President Trump's out ask for Congressional authorization ask them to authorize military action against Iran if they don't make a nuclear deal in order to get a nuclear deal and if that means military action sufficient to change the Government of Iran so be it. President Trump and the Republicans more likely than not will "not" get such authorization because re-starting military action means a shortage of the worlds supply of oil which means a dramatic increase in petroleum and related prices which means the U.S. government will have caused such a financial burden on the American consumer that such consumer will buckle under the load and the majority of members of Congress are not going to want to vote for that. Once this war authorization is voted down and it is clear the nuclear talks with Iran are deadlocked President Trump can just end the war and blame it on Congress who didn't give him authorization.
What the American public should also hear is the stark facts about a war with Iran, President Trump of late often talks about finishing the job in Iran. If the truth be told to finish the job means overthrowing the hardline Islamic government in Tehran which means sending in U.S. ground troops. The truth is that America will have to do it alone America's NATO allies justly are not going to participate because this isn't a just war Iran was not weeks away from building a nuclear bomb as President Trump and his allies proclaim these long time allies of America know this truth and so won't participate in this unjust war! Which raises the question can America win this war against Iran alone and I believe the honest answer is probably not! America would be hard pressed to deploy two-hundred thousand combat troops into Iran and If you consider all the types of fighters Iran has they probably have close to a million men under arms, 200K is enough to take whatever ground America wants but it is not enough to wipe out Iran's fighting force which would be what is needed if America wants to get a new Iranian government and be able to leave and be confident that the new West leaning government will stand. America's Army has fifty-nine brigade combat teams and there is about 4000 soldiers in each combat team (32 Active combat teams and 27 in the National Guard) and there is 48K to 90K marines in the Marine Expeditionary forces and if one considers that all combat fighters cannot be deployed to Iran America has other security obligation so a force of 200K combat troops in Iran is pretty reasonable. One also needs to consider if America sends combat troops into Iran they are going to face highly motivated and zealot fighters America is considered by these people to be the great Satan this will be considered a holy war by Iranian fighters. Iranian Quds force has perfected the technology of roadside bombs, American troops are going to be fighting a highly effective guerilla force. It must also be remembered that America has a volunteer force and such a war will bring a lot of casualties and this war by at least half of the American people is considered a war of choice there was no imminent military threat Iran was not weeks or months away from building a nuclear bomb so America will likely see enlistments fall off a cliff and if that is the case America won't be able to keep the deployment numbers in Iran to sustain the war and so it will have to leave thus losing the war! Let me also bring up a point of recent military history back in President George W Bush's second term the Iraq war was at a stalemate the Sunni fighters were very effective at fighting a guerrilla war against America and allied troops. President Bush did a troop surge in Iraq at this time and put General David Petraeus in charge of the war in Iraq; America ended up winning the war but most importantly to note it wasn't through war fighting General Petraeus came up with a brilliant idea he hired these Sunni fighting forces to work for the U.S. and Iraqi government he brought about these forces switching sides. The point being there is no real precedent in modern times for a Western military fighting force successfully fighting and defeating a large scale indigenous guerrilla fighting force in the Middle East acting sensible it would seem to be outstandingly foolish to pursue such a war plan!
What the American public should also hear is the stark facts about a war with Iran, President Trump of late often talks about finishing the job in Iran. If the truth be told to finish the job means overthrowing the hardline Islamic government in Tehran which means sending in U.S. ground troops. The truth is that America will have to do it alone America's NATO allies justly are not going to participate because this isn't a just war Iran was not weeks away from building a nuclear bomb as President Trump and his allies proclaim these long time allies of America know this truth and so won't participate in this unjust war! Which raises the question can America win this war against Iran alone and I believe the honest answer is probably not! America would be hard pressed to deploy two-hundred thousand combat troops into Iran and If you consider all the types of fighters Iran has they probably have close to a million men under arms, 200K is enough to take whatever ground America wants but it is not enough to wipe out Iran's fighting force which would be what is needed if America wants to get a new Iranian government and be able to leave and be confident that the new West leaning government will stand. America's Army has fifty-nine brigade combat teams and there is about 4000 soldiers in each combat team (32 Active combat teams and 27 in the National Guard) and there is 48K to 90K marines in the Marine Expeditionary forces and if one considers that all combat fighters cannot be deployed to Iran America has other security obligation so a force of 200K combat troops in Iran is pretty reasonable. One also needs to consider if America sends combat troops into Iran they are going to face highly motivated and zealot fighters America is considered by these people to be the great Satan this will be considered a holy war by Iranian fighters. Iranian Quds force has perfected the technology of roadside bombs, American troops are going to be fighting a highly effective guerilla force. It must also be remembered that America has a volunteer force and such a war will bring a lot of casualties and this war by at least half of the American people is considered a war of choice there was no imminent military threat Iran was not weeks or months away from building a nuclear bomb so America will likely see enlistments fall off a cliff and if that is the case America won't be able to keep the deployment numbers in Iran to sustain the war and so it will have to leave thus losing the war! Let me also bring up a point of recent military history back in President George W Bush's second term the Iraq war was at a stalemate the Sunni fighters were very effective at fighting a guerrilla war against America and allied troops. President Bush did a troop surge in Iraq at this time and put General David Petraeus in charge of the war in Iraq; America ended up winning the war but most importantly to note it wasn't through war fighting General Petraeus came up with a brilliant idea he hired these Sunni fighting forces to work for the U.S. and Iraqi government he brought about these forces switching sides. The point being there is no real precedent in modern times for a Western military fighting force successfully fighting and defeating a large scale indigenous guerrilla fighting force in the Middle East acting sensible it would seem to be outstandingly foolish to pursue such a war plan!
