Why Hillary Will Win (probably)

[hortysir]

I hope Bernie and Trump both win their primaries, these other candidates are career bribe takers and they should be in prison, to hell with the e-mails, why do we even THINK of electing a president who lines their pockets with hundreds of millions dollars, and act like they want to serve us. It's an insult to the collective American intelligence at large and I hope we call this bullshit as we see it.

They all line their pockets.

You don't spend billions on a campaign unless there's a profit to be made

 

[NLT]

 

[HenryBHough]

Fortunately for Mrs. Rodham-Clinton/Lewinsky in Post-Constitutional Obamerica a felony conviction no longer results in loss of voting rights let alone cause any ineligibility for any public office.

 

[oreo]

Hillary will be the nominee. But what is astounding is really what is happening in the GOP. All the non-politicians are surging right now. Donald Trump, Carly Fiorina & even Ben Carson. They're kicking the GOP politicians butts in the polls.

This is historic. It's the anger out there of politicians never holding their ground, flipping and flopping all over the place and never getting anything once they're elected.

Carly Fiorina is the best candidate in this group. She's intelligent and articulate--and she handles reporters and journalists like they're putty in her hands.

 

[rightwinger]

Hillary will be the nominee. But what is astounding is really what is happening in the GOP. All the non-politicians are surging right now. Donald Trump, Carly Fiorina & even Ben Carson. They're kicking the GOP politicians butts in the polls.

This is historic. It's the anger out there of politicians never holding their ground, flipping and flopping all over the place and never getting anything once they're elected.

Carly Fiorina is the best candidate in this group. She's intelligent and articulate--and she handles reporters and journalists like they're putty in her hands.

The anti-Trump

 

[The sheeple sea]

I hope Bernie and Trump both win their primaries, these other candidates are career bribe takers and they should be in prison, to hell with the e-mails, why do we even THINK of electing a president who lines their pockets with hundreds of millions dollars, and act like they want to serve us. It's an insult to the collective American intelligence at large and I hope we call this bullshit as we see it.

They all line their pockets.

You don't spend billions on a campaign unless there's a profit to be made

Bernie is severely outspent, with a campaign budget no where near Hillary's 2 billion because he refuses special interest money and super PAC money, last I saw his budget was about 22 million, less than most candidates by alot and donated from real people in real amounts not amounting to millions from corporations.

And Trump has enough money, if he wanted to make more money he could do it without running for President, he's richer than most people who donate money to other candidates in the millions.

Those two candidates are also the only two talking about the corruption of our political system, I don't know about Trumps stance, but Bernie wants campaign finance reform and has always wanted that, he didn't pick it up when it became of movement of people demanding it like many politicians.

My single favorite moment in the Republican primary debate was when Trump said he donated to both sides because he can get them to do what he wants that way, and all the other candidates were speechless (besides one of those idiots asking Trump for money like he was being funny).

Watch Bernie bring it up in the Democratic primary and watch Hillary stare at her feet like a dope.

 

[The sheeple sea]

Hillary will be the nominee. But what is astounding is really what is happening in the GOP. All the non-politicians are surging right now. Donald Trump, Carly Fiorina & even Ben Carson. They're kicking the GOP politicians butts in the polls.

This is historic. It's the anger out there of politicians never holding their ground, flipping and flopping all over the place and never getting anything once they're elected.

Carly Fiorina is the best candidate in this group. She's intelligent and articulate--and she handles reporters and journalists like they're putty in her hands.

Hillary has a 2 billion dollar budget and Bernie Sanders has a 22 million budget and he's gaining hard, ahead in one primary state and gaining in more, there hasn't even been a debate yet, most people still don't know who he is and when people find out, they generally prefer him to Hillary. Democrats want a non politician too, and as they realize there's another choice, they leave her in the dirt, big budget or not.

 

[Avatar4321]

Hillary will be lucky to stay out of prison

 

[candycorn]

...96% of incumbents won in 2014. There didn't seem to be much anger about the "old guard" then. Congress has 11 approval ratings but 96 incumbent reelection rate meme says PolitiFact

You and I both know that the American People can turn on a dime - they can turn in a heartbeat.

Dear Kondor,

You're right, the American People love new things.

Cordially,

The metric system
Obamacare
Soccer
The previous 30 congressional elections which had the same basic results
John McCain who finished 2nd to bush
Mitt Romney who finished 2nd to McCain

 

[candycorn]

Hillary will be the nominee. But what is astounding is really what is happening in the GOP. All the non-politicians are surging right now. Donald Trump, Carly Fiorina & even Ben Carson. They're kicking the GOP politicians butts in the polls.

This is historic. It's the anger out there of politicians never holding their ground, flipping and flopping all over the place and never getting anything once they're elected.

Carly Fiorina is the best candidate in this group. She's intelligent and articulate--and she handles reporters and journalists like they're putty in her hands.

Hillary has a 2 billion dollar budget and Bernie Sanders has a 22 million budget and he's gaining hard, ahead in one primary state and gaining in more, there hasn't even been a debate yet, most people still don't know who he is and when people find out, they generally prefer him to Hillary. Democrats want a non politician too, and as they realize there's another choice, they leave her in the dirt, big budget or not.

Psst....

Bernie isn't a democrat, never has been one. He will. Not be a factor in either the primary or general election.

 

[candycorn]

The reason Hillary will win is because no such force sits to her left which would force her to react in such an irrational manner.

Oh my God, that is funny. You actually bleev this?

Yes. Emphasis on the word "force".

 

[HenryBHough]

Bernie isn't a democrat, never has been one. He will. Not be a factor in either the primary or general election.

This is true.

Mad old Uncle Bernie IS left-leaning enough to qualify but fails the "Thuggish" test.

 

[The sheeple sea]

Hillary will be the nominee. But what is astounding is really what is happening in the GOP. All the non-politicians are surging right now. Donald Trump, Carly Fiorina & even Ben Carson. They're kicking the GOP politicians butts in the polls.

This is historic. It's the anger out there of politicians never holding their ground, flipping and flopping all over the place and never getting anything once they're elected.

Carly Fiorina is the best candidate in this group. She's intelligent and articulate--and she handles reporters and journalists like they're putty in her hands.

Hillary has a 2 billion dollar budget and Bernie Sanders has a 22 million budget and he's gaining hard, ahead in one primary state and gaining in more, there hasn't even been a debate yet, most people still don't know who he is and when people find out, they generally prefer him to Hillary. Democrats want a non politician too, and as they realize there's another choice, they leave her in the dirt, big budget or not.

Psst....

Bernie isn't a democrat, never has been one. He will. Not be a factor in either the primary or general election.

Psst.. He's running on the Democratic ticket, he's winning in primary polling in new Hampshire against Hillary. He's gaining in other states and there hasn't even been a debate yet, his rallies have had the most people of any political rally this cycle.

 

[HenryBHough]

Bernie might be running for The Democrat NOMINATION but if he's on the November, 2016 ballot it will have to be as an independent. Yes, he IS articulate. Yes, he does clean up nice. But he's the wrong colour and has not come up to required Democrat Party thuggish skills levels.....though he might put that behind him were he to pre-position Algore as his intended running mate.

 

[candycorn]

One smart thing the GOP did was limit the number of debates. On the surface, at least, this was smart because it gives the whackjob candidacies of Cruz and Paul less official forums to announce their positions. Contrary to the belief that the Parties pick the candidtes; they actually have very little authority over them let alone control what they say. The flip side is that the urge to make a "big splash" may be too great for either of them to understand. Those who are looking to put their marker down somewhere between the hard right and the moderate right are probably the most dangerous.

Every karem to or pander toward the hard right forces the eventual nominee to move in that direction. This will, of course, hamstring him in the general election when the enevitable move back to the center has to be made.

The reason Hillary will win is because no such force sits to her left which would force her to react in such an irrational manner. Also, if such a force were to materialize, there would still be no need for Clinton to make the move; the voters on the hard left will be there for her in November. If we learned anything from 2012 it is that the hard right will abandon a GOP candidate that is seen as not willing to carry their water and message.

Obama fatigue and the ocassional flub (if they are ocassional) and tactical mis-step of the Clinton campaign will play a role as well but there shouldn't be enough of them to swing the election.

Clinton will win the nomination--but what is going with the GOP is astounding. The soon to be pack leaders are NOT former or current politicians. Donald Trump, Carly Fiorina, Ben Carson. People are paying attention to what they're saying, because when they say something they actually mean it. They don't dish out the political double-speak.

We have the rest of the political pack losing ground quickly to the non-political, and they're stunned by it.

Carly Fiorina is surging right now, she is all over the news, and in interviews. She handles these reporters and journalists like their putty in her hands. Nothing gets past her. She is intelligent & articulate,something I haven't seen come out of any candidate, and she's NOT a politician!

Here is a recent CBS interview: Carly Fiorina on abortion, planned parenthood, Clinton's emails, immigration.
You have got to see this: This woman is incredible.
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Your msg got truncated oreo

Carly is formidable. No question about that. I gave this example the other day. A Rubio administration would likely be a lot like Clinton's first year where it was like a frat house. Lloyd Bentsen basically had to spank people and tell the President what they were going to do.
With Carly, you'll know who is in charge.

Clinton would have zero problem dispatching her.

 

[candycorn]

Hillary will be the nominee. But what is astounding is really what is happening in the GOP. All the non-politicians are surging right now. Donald Trump, Carly Fiorina & even Ben Carson. They're kicking the GOP politicians butts in the polls.

This is historic. It's the anger out there of politicians never holding their ground, flipping and flopping all over the place and never getting anything once they're elected.

Carly Fiorina is the best candidate in this group. She's intelligent and articulate--and she handles reporters and journalists like they're putty in her hands.

Hillary has a 2 billion dollar budget and Bernie Sanders has a 22 million budget and he's gaining hard, ahead in one primary state and gaining in more, there hasn't even been a debate yet, most people still don't know who he is and when people find out, they generally prefer him to Hillary. Democrats want a non politician too, and as they realize there's another choice, they leave her in the dirt, big budget or not.

Psst....

Bernie isn't a democrat, never has been one. He will. Not be a factor in either the primary or general election.

Psst.. He's running on the Democratic ticket,

There is no ticket. He is one of several dems vying for the nomination via delegates to the National convention. What you're saying is going to happen is that these Democrats will select a non-democrat over one of their own. Not going to happen.

he's winning in primary polling in new Hampshire against Hillary.

He's from the neighboring state. Big deal.

He's gaining in other states and there hasn't even been a debate yet,

bingo

his rallies have had the most people of any political rally this cycle.

Yep....it's hard to get a liberal crowd in Oregon.

 

[Kondor3]

...96% of incumbents won in 2014. There didn't seem to be much anger about the "old guard" then. Congress has 11 approval ratings but 96 incumbent reelection rate meme says PolitiFact

You and I both know that the American People can turn on a dime - they can turn in a heartbeat.

Dear Kondor,

You're right, the American People love new things.

Cordially,

The metric system
Obamacare
Soccer
The previous 30 congressional elections which had the same basic results
John McCain who finished 2nd to bush
Mitt Romney who finished 2nd to McCain

Fine... don't believe me about the ability of the American People to turn on a dime, when presented with evidence of wrongdoing.

Circumstances and the near-term future will give us more a more definitive answer.

 

[The sheeple sea]

Hillary will be the nominee. But what is astounding is really what is happening in the GOP. All the non-politicians are surging right now. Donald Trump, Carly Fiorina & even Ben Carson. They're kicking the GOP politicians butts in the polls.

This is historic. It's the anger out there of politicians never holding their ground, flipping and flopping all over the place and never getting anything once they're elected.

Carly Fiorina is the best candidate in this group. She's intelligent and articulate--and she handles reporters and journalists like they're putty in her hands.

Hillary has a 2 billion dollar budget and Bernie Sanders has a 22 million budget and he's gaining hard, ahead in one primary state and gaining in more, there hasn't even been a debate yet, most people still don't know who he is and when people find out, they generally prefer him to Hillary. Democrats want a non politician too, and as they realize there's another choice, they leave her in the dirt, big budget or not.

Psst....

Bernie isn't a democrat, never has been one. He will. Not be a factor in either the primary or general election.

Psst.. He's running on the Democratic ticket,

There is no ticket. He is one of several dems vying for the nomination via delegates to the National convention. What you're saying is going to happen is that these Democrats will select a non-democrat over one of their own. Not going to happen.

he's winning in primary polling in new Hampshire against Hillary.

He's from the neighboring state. Big deal.

He's gaining in other states and there hasn't even been a debate yet,

bingo

his rallies have had the most people of any political rally this cycle.

Yep....it's hard to get a liberal crowd in Oregon.

Yes, yes I think they'll pick a non Democrat, just like Republicans are picking a non Republican, people are sick of the corruption, sick of seeing 2 billion dollar war chests of campaign funds, and the people they get that money from. I can't wait for the debates, because Hillary will come off as the corrupt puppet she is. I would love to see a question asked about campaign finance reform and watch Bernie tear Hillary down. People are sick of dirty money in politics and Democrats will want someone who's not swimming in it.

 

[JoeB131]

Hillary is, indeed, a Known Commodity... one of the Old Guard... part of Business-as-Usual.

It's just that America is showing VERY strong signs during the earliest months of the 2016 campaign, of being goddamned sick-and-tired of Business-as-Usual, and the Old Guard, and is now easily attracted to Outsiders.

Whether that lasts or not is anybody's guess, but, I wouldn't count-on Hillary's being a Known Commodity too heavily, in conjuring-up Wishes-and-Fishes about the Winner.

i think you missed my point. I don't know if explaining it to you again would so much good.

Okay. Here's the thing. Hillary starts the game at about 47% of the vote, as Mitt Romney famously said. I think it's actually closer to 49%, as the Democratic Candidate has not gotten LESS than that since 1992. So all she need to do is convince 1-3% of the electorate to come to her side.

The GOP guy really starts at about 45%. that's the low mark. although it's sunk to 38% in 1992, and 43% in 1996, in the last four elections, it's ranged from 45% (McCain) to 51% (Bush the second time with all the wind blowing in the right direction for him.)

Now, if you are fighting over that 6-8% in the middle, who are persuadable, you aren't going to get them by appealling to your base.

So, yeah, Trump and Sanders are doing very well now because this is probably the last time they will ask the base what they REALLY feel about things. Then both sides will probably nominate the safest candidates they can and fight for that 6-8% in the middle.

People know a lot about Hillary. They don't know a lot about Walker. They don't know a lot about Rubio. They don't know a lot about Jeb! other than he was the idiot's brother.

Those guys are going to have to do a lot more work to convince the undecided 6-8% than Hillary will.

 

[candycorn]

Hillary will be the nominee. But what is astounding is really what is happening in the GOP. All the non-politicians are surging right now. Donald Trump, Carly Fiorina & even Ben Carson. They're kicking the GOP politicians butts in the polls.

This is historic. It's the anger out there of politicians never holding their ground, flipping and flopping all over the place and never getting anything once they're elected.

Carly Fiorina is the best candidate in this group. She's intelligent and articulate--and she handles reporters and journalists like they're putty in her hands.

The tractor-pull contingent is showing up. They won't be there later on.

Carly is the best candidate? Based on what?