Wrong. I know I've seen that claim all over the web, but it's just plain wrong. In 1970 the consensus among all professional geologists was that the continents were stationary. They didn't move with respect to one another. That theory was dead wrong. The consensus was wrong, and every "valid authority" on the subject was wrong.
Experts are not infallible, so the fact that they hold a particular position, even on a subject that are supposed to be authorities on, doesn't gaurantee that their position is true.
Wikipedia is wrong, and I already quote the comments that explain why it's wrong. There is no "valid authority" when it comes to truths about nature.
I'm sorry Paddy, but it is you that are wrong - and fundamentally so on every count here. I don't think you've put on your thinking cap here.
And whether or not the experts are actually correct about the point in question actually has no bearing on whether or not it is logically valid to call upon their authority.
What you're saying is that whether claim 'A' is valid has no bearing on whether the authority's opinion determines whether claim 'A' is valid.
It's hard to believe anyone who claims to understand logic could utter such a Rube Goldberg syllogism.
I think for a starter that you ought to look up the difference between an inductive and a deductive argument.
You and PMS and all the other AGW cultists are making a deducting argument. Every time you claim claim AGW is true because of the so-called "scientific consensus," You aren't referring to the evidence. You're only invoking the so-called "authority" of the IPCC and so-called "climate scientists." If you're making a case based on the strength of the evidence, then post the evidence. Don't claim it's true because the IPCC or Michael Mann says so.
It will tell you where you went wrong when you said "There is no "valid authority" when it comes to truths about nature". I am not claiming truths. I am claiming likelihoods. The opinion of the experts is a valid reference when claiming that one thing is more likely than another.
Likelihoods are just another truth about reality. The likelihood that I will die of cancer may not be known by me or my doctor, but it's still a scientific fact that there is a certain likelihood of it occurring. Insurance companies invest millions of dollars trying to determine the likelihood of various kinds of life events, but they still come up with incorrect numbers and get soaked for billions of dollars.
The fact is that the IPCC doesn't have a clue what the temperature of the Earth's climate will be in 2050. Their guess so far have been abysmally wrong. Based on their track record they aren't experts. They are charlatans.
The bottom line is, no matter how brilliant, no matter how educated, and no matter how dedicated an expert supposedly is, he can still be dead wrong about something he is supposed to have expert knowledge about.
All the geologists in 1950 were dead wrong about continental drift. That fact alone should make anyone pause before claiming some theory is true because authorities 'X,' 'Y' and 'Z' says it's true.
As is almost always the case, Wikipedia is completely correct. It is logically correct to use an appeal to authority under the circumstances detailed and those are the circumstances under which we reference them as support for the validity of anthropogenic global warming.
Again, from Wikipedia:
Inductive reasoning (as opposed to deductive reasoning) is reasoning in which the premises seek to supply strong evidence for (not absolute proof of) the truth of the conclusion. While the conclusion of a deductive argument is supposed to be certain, the truth of an inductive argument is supposed to be probable, based upon the evidence given.
and
Deductive reasoning, also deductive logic or logical deduction or, informally, "top-down" logic, is the process of reasoning from one or more general statements (premises) to reach a logically certain conclusion.
Deductive reasoning links premises with conclusions. If all premises are true, the terms are clear, and the rules of deductive logic are followed, then the conclusion reached is necessarily true.
Deductive reasoning (top-down logic) contrasts with inductive reasoning (bottom-up logic) in the following way: In deductive reasoning, a conclusion is reached from general statements, but in inductive reasoning the conclusion is reached from specific examples.
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This is a deductive argument.
All men are mortal.
Aristotle is a man.
Therefore Aristotle is mortal.
This is an inductive argument
Most men have facial hair
Aristotle is a man
Therefore Aristotle likely has facial hair
If you find somewhere, that someone here has made some form of the argument: "AGW is a fact because the IPCC says it is", they will have made a fallacious use of an appeal to authority. If, instead, you find that people have said "The IPCC's statements support the validity of AGW", they are logically correct.
The other point I made along these lines (and to which you were the only respondent) was that. logically, it did not matter whether or not the experts were correct in the matter under discussion. Hindsight is 20-20. Whether or not it turns out to have been correct in the long run, taking reference to the best information available at any given point in time is logically unassailable. You can hardly fault someone for failing to accept some point when, at the time, it is effectively unknown or, as is the case here, is espoused by a minority and rejected by the experts.
You said,
"What you're saying is that whether claim 'A' is valid has no bearing on whether the authority's opinion determines whether claim 'A' is valid." Unfortunately, that is not a correct description of the situation. We do not
know at this time whether or not AGW is valid (and will never KNOW whether it is TRUE because it is not epistemologically possible to do so) but we do know that the majority of the experts in the field believe it to be valid. The question, then, is has it been logically correct of us to believe it valid because the experts believe so - to take their word for it. As long as we do not claim that AGW is
proven or to hold it as a
fact simply because the IPCC accepts the validity of the theory, and as long as a consensus exists among the actual experts in the field supporting our contention, we are logically correct in so doing.
I was not attempting to refute your argument with my correction about the dates at which plate tectonics became accepted theory and my apologies that it turned into such. I saw your "just make it 1960" comment and accept it. However, the fact that professional geologists rejected plate tectonics does not make it incorrect to have relied on their opinion at the time or, in general to rely on the opinion of experts at any time. No one has always been right ('cept you and I, eh? ;-)), everyone has been wrong at some point or another. If you will reject everyone who has ever made a mistake, you will be spending the rest of your life by yourself.
You also stated, "The fact is that the IPCC doesn't have a clue what the temperature of the Earth's climate will be in 2050. Their guess so far have been abysmally wrong. Based on their track record they aren't experts. They are charlatans."
The scientists of the IPCC are not charlatans. You are making unjustifiable and unsupportable generalizations. They are all simply scientists doing their job. The vast majority of them are college professors and institute researchers who would be doing much the same research and publishing much the same papers whether or not the IPCC even existed. They are not employed by the UN.
These scientists DO have a clue what the temperature of the Earth will be in 2050; far more of a clue than do you or I. It is what they have been trained to do. It is what they do professionally, every day, most for many years. And the projections they have made so far are NOT guesses and have NOT been abysmally wrong. They have not been perfect and neither they nor we ever claimed that they were. But, when they were made, they were the best estimates available. As we have all seen, new information, new data, new knowledge can change the landscape as we speak.
To get back to the real question with which we need to deal: the balance of energy at the top of the Earth's atmosphere (the ToA), as measured by several different satellites, is still uneven: less energy is reradiated from the Earth back to space than is falling on the planet. The Earth is still accumulating solar energy. As far as I can see, that point overwhelms
all arguments about global warming having ended. Whether it is some unknown natural cycle, whether it is caused by CO2 or TSI variations or cosmic rays...No matter WHAT its cause - it has not stopped. The Earth is continuing to warm.
Now then, since the increase of the temperature of the air, the land and the sea's surface has slowed dramatically since 1998, one has to wonder where that energy IS going. The answer, per a growing body of evidence, is that it is going into the deep ocean.
Do you agree?