Speculators react to what they think will happen to oil prices, which in turn pushes prices in that direction. If an American president, for example, looks weak and ineffective while a Russian dictator convinces them he's serious about invading another country, they expect the ensuing war to cut world supplies of oil and push things accordingly. In fact, they all try to get out in front of the expected price increases, which in turn exaggerates the increase. That's how Quid Pro drove up prices, by making war more likely.