CDZ When will the GOP field start to shrink

[SingleVoyce]

Will the Iowa caucus results cause any of the current candidates to give up? How about New Hampshire? South Carolina?

Or will they all hang in there until the tsunami of primaries in March?

 

[Kosh]

After the Iowa and New Hampshire caucuses.

 

[TNHarley]

It shouldn't. Didn't Huckabee win Iowa a few years ago?

 

[rightwinger]

After Iowa and NH the field will drop to
8

After Super Tuesday on March 1 you will see the field drop to Trump, Cruz, Rubio, Bush and maybe Christie

 

[Zander]

Who cares? Nobody can stop Trump. Not even Trump.

At this point He's more inevitable than hiLIARy.....

 

[Luddly Neddite]

Is Santorum still in?

The Huckster will still have his phony cancer/diabetes cures.

They all plan to raise taxes on the working class and declare war on several countries so really, I don't know that it matters much. Drumpf lies the most and the loudest but even that doesn't set him apart.

If any one of them wins, I suggest y'all take second jobs to pay for their tax hikes.

 

[aaronleland]

It shouldn't. Didn't Huckabee win Iowa a few years ago?

Didn't Michelle Bachmann win it last time? The Iowa caucuses are retarded.

 

[TNHarley]

It shouldn't. Didn't Huckabee win Iowa a few years ago?

Didn't Michelle Bachmann win it last time? The Iowa caucuses are retarded.

I don't see how they have that much influence. Hell, this debates admission requirements were based off those 2 states. I don't get it man..

 

[aaronleland]

It shouldn't. Didn't Huckabee win Iowa a few years ago?

Didn't Michelle Bachmann win it last time? The Iowa caucuses are retarded.

I don't see how they have that much influence. Hell, this debates admission requirements were based off those 2 states. I don't get it man..

Correction. Rick Santorum won in 2012. That guy who didn't get even remotely close to the nomination.

 

[SingleVoyce]

Is Santorum still in?

The Huckster will still have his phony cancer/diabetes cures.

They all plan to raise taxes on the working class and declare war on several countries so really, I don't know that it matters much. Drumpf lies the most and the loudest but even that doesn't set him apart.

If any one of them wins, I suggest y'all take second jobs to pay for their tax hikes.

Santorum is evidently still in. I added him in the the list for the poll question.

 

[LoneLaugher]

Marco Rubio needs to start begging people to drop out.

There is a guy named Dr. Sam Wang......with a website called the Princeton Election Consortium. He's got a pretty damned good track record when it comes to predicting election results based on polling.

He says that "The Donald" has as good a shot at being the GOP nominee as Hillary does of being the Dem nominee......and as good a chance as both George W Bush and Al Gore at this time in the 2000 cycle.

According to him ( see interview on Michael Smerconish radio program ) if there are more than three people left in the race by Super Tuesday.....Marco (the person best situated to defeat Trump and Cruz) is SOOL.

He says, by the way, that Cruz has more problems than Trump based on his interpretation of the polling data. Take a look.

The predictive value of GOP Presidential polls

You can thank me for this link later.

 

[Gracie]

Kasich.

 

[TNHarley]

Is Santorum still in?

The Huckster will still have his phony cancer/diabetes cures.

They all plan to raise taxes on the working class and declare war on several countries so really, I don't know that it matters much. Drumpf lies the most and the loudest but even that doesn't set him apart.

If any one of them wins, I suggest y'all take second jobs to pay for their tax hikes.

Do you ever NOT talk out of your ass?

 

[SingleVoyce]

Who cares? Nobody can stop Trump. Not even Trump.

At this point He's more inevitable than hiLIARy.....

Trump certainly seems inevitable if the field doesn't narrow in a hurry. There is an interesting web site at the link below that allows you to project the delegates won by each candidate in each primary based on current poll numbers (or others you choose). I ran through it with the current national numbers and, if all the current candidates stay in the race, Trump has 80% of the delegates needed for the nomination by the end of the March 15 set of primaries and that's before New York has even selected their delegates. However, if all but one of the "establishment" candidates drop out after New Hampshire and consolidate behind one then it becomes much more difficult for him to accumulate enough delegates to win.

Probably won't happen though.

The GOP Race for Delegates: An Interactive Tool | RealClearPolitics

 

[Zander]

Who cares? Nobody can stop Trump. Not even Trump.

At this point He's more inevitable than hiLIARy.....

Trump certainly seems inevitable if the field doesn't narrow in a hurry. There is an interesting web site at the link below that allows you to project the delegates won by each candidate in each primary based on current poll numbers (or others you choose). I ran through it with the current national numbers and, if all the current candidates stay in the race, Trump has 80% of the delegates needed for the nomination by the end of the March 15 set of primaries and that's before New York has even selected their delegates. However, if all but one of the "establishment" candidates drop out after New Hampshire and consolidate behind one then it becomes much more difficult for him to accumulate enough delegates to win.

Probably won't happen though.

The GOP Race for Delegates: An Interactive Tool | RealClearPolitics

Yeah, that's not going to happen. Ted Cruz, La Raza Rubio, Fat Slob Christie, Wimpy Rino Kasich, and Low Energy Bush - are all going to stay in until at least Super Tuesday. By that time Trump should have the nomination sewn up.

 

[baileyn45]

Anybody recall if having this many still in is unusual, unprecedented?

 

[blackhawk]

After Iowa it will likely be Santorum or Huckabee.

 

[SingleVoyce]

After Iowa it will likely be Santorum or Huckabee.

Huckabee stuck around until the bitter end the last time he ran so I can't see him giving up early this time around. Who knows why Santorum is still in the race but whether or not he stays in it probably doesn't depend too much on actual results since he already knows he has no chance.

 

[rightwinger]

Anybody recall if having this many still in is unusual, unprecedented?

Thirteen is unusual

Now that we have citizens united a candidate with no chance can stay till the end
Helps Trump

 

[SingleVoyce]

Anybody recall if having this many still in is unusual, unprecedented?

In both 2008 and 2012, there were still 7 candidates going into the Iowa caucus so it's not really unusual.