Obama will match better against Santorum, who will look far less presidential and less rational against the pres.
Romney will match well against BHO.
The black and latino and women votes are going to go massively for the dems. Those groups will put up with neither RS nor MR.
I think Santorum, good solid Catholic, will probably do better with Hispanics than Mr. "I can't have illegals, I'm running for office, for Pete's Sake" who has demogouged the issue to beat Perry and Gingrich.
I don't think either will do well with voters who identify with their uteri. They've both sucked up to the men in dresses against women, they've both been against the women's right to choose.
But the important thing is, this election is based on teh stupidity of the electoral college. Now, it's safe to say MOST of the South and Mountain states will still end up going for whoever the GOP guy is. And West Coast and North East will go for Obama because they went for Kerry and Gore and Clinton. The GOP hasn't won these states since 1988, after the last great re-alignment with the end of the Cold War.
So where will the real battle be fought? In the Mid-west, "rust belt" states. Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, Indiana. Illinois would normally be on that list, but Obama is from here and the GOP in this state is a joke.
All these states (except Missouri) went for Obama in 2008, but many of them elected Republican Governors in 2010. These are the states the GOP has to win back in order to win.
Romney won't be able to pull it off. Sorry, he won't. His business record is why these states have the rusting factories, assholes like him who moved all the good paying jobs to China. Santorum gets these people, he's one of them. He can relate to their largely Catholic and socially conservative background.
Now, again, I think either of these guys have an uphill battle, given the liberal media cheerleading for Obama, the fact he has the incumbancy working for him, and the fact the GOP has so much ground to make up with so many key groups they've lost in the last 20 yeas. But I think Santorum has a far better chance than Romney does.