I can go first, since that's only fair.
There's a lot about the AZ audit that seems sketchy to me, but I know one thing they're supposedly doing is surveying people who are recorded as having voted to confirm that they did, in fact, vote. If Cyber Ninjas finds a major discrepancy on that front, I expect various other organizations or state governments will try to reproduce their results, both in Arizona and elsewhere. If those attempts consistently show a wide variance between recorded voters and self-reporting voters then, yeah, I'd have to get on board with the idea that something very sinister screwed with the 2020 election.
There are probably other ways to get there too, but that's the one strikes me as reasonable and not requiring any highly improbable events.
So that's what would change my mind now. Looking back I can see a number of times when, had things gone differently, I would have had to change my mind along the way. Many of them involved recounts, such as in Georgia, where there were claims that election workers had fed the same ballots through the machines over and over and over again. I was dubious (though that famous one video clip did make me stop and work on learning more), but if the recounts had significantly differed from the original count such that the ultimate result was in doubt, I was ready to conclude that the process of fundamentally compromised.
Another key moment was the Allied Securities audit of Atrium County in Michigan (remember that one?) when Russell Ramsland's analysis purportedly showed that the Dominion machines were systematically skewing the vote count. I have a friend who firmly believed that was the smoking gun and that a hand recount, without using the tampered machines, would prove it. I was iffy, Ramsland's track record is not great, but had to agree that if the machine count and the hand count were substantially different from one another, then yes there was clearly fraud happening in one or the other (if not both).
The other test I set for myself was watching State governors and State Sec. States. I knew a number of Republican governors and Sec. States were standing firmly by their state's results for Biden, which I thought was telling (particularly in the case of Kemp, who was pretty much universally acknowledged to be a pro-Trump Republican until that moment). What I wanted to see was if ANY Democratic governors or Sec States would call into question their state's results for Biden. E.G. Had Gov. Wolfe in Pennsylvania raised any doubt about the legitimacy of PA's result, that would have immediately called the whole thing into question for me.
None of that played out, of course. The GA recounts all agreed with a tiny margin of error, even on a county-by-county level; the Atrium county hand count was effectively the same as the machine count, wholly defying Ramsland's predictions; and as far as I know, not a single gov. or sec. state, Democrat or Republican, has claimed their state's results were illegitimate. So that's why I'm where I am.