What the frock is wrong with Rasmussen?

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Amelia

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It's as if that deranged sign language translator from the Mandela memorial were doing the polling at Rasmussen ---


 
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Rasmussen is consistently the outlier in these polls, sometimes by a wide margin, as they are now. How do they manage that? How do they defend that?
 

RandomVariable

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Rasmussen is consistently the outlier in these polls, sometimes by a wide margin, as they are now. How do they manage that? How do they defend that?
Absolutely nothing is wrong with their poll, if you look at their strongly approve/disapprove poll. That matches all the others about perfectly at -11%. The numbers used in the table you have is from the total approve. I am not sure what this means. You are right though, the Rasmussen number is an outlier.

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll - Rasmussen Reports?
 

emilynghiem

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Rasmussen is consistently the outlier in these polls, sometimes by a wide margin, as they are now. How do they manage that? How do they defend that?
Maybe that's just human. Even results that are close to 100%
always have sticklers in the 1 or 2% range that have to be different.

People don't believe ads that say 5 out of 5 dentists recommend something.
It is always "4 out of 5 dentists" to make it look realistic.

So maybe this one source has to be different
to make the averages come out right.

Maybe that's just life.
 

Spoonman

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Rasmussen is consistently the outlier in these polls, sometimes by a wide margin, as they are now. How do they manage that? How do they defend that?
they don't have to defend it. to challenge it would be racist
 

theDoctorisIn

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Wait, I thought that Rasmussen is "the best".

I always hear from conservatives that Rasmussen is the most accurate because of "likely voters", and that their constant outlier results are because they're the only ones who are right.

I guess that's only "true" when you like the results...
 

Spoonman

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Wait, I thought that Rasmussen is "the best".

I always hear from conservatives that Rasmussen is the most accurate because of "likely voters", and that their constant outlier results are because they're the only ones who are right.

I guess that's only "true" when you like the results...
and libs are usually bashing them for being hacks during those times
 
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Amelia

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Wait, I thought that Rasmussen is "the best".

I always hear from conservatives that Rasmussen is the most accurate because of "likely voters", and that their constant outlier results are because they're the only ones who are right.

I guess that's only "true" when you like the results...

Something appears to have changed. How did they swing from results which tended to favor Republicans in 2012 to results which are something like 20 points the opposite way a year later?
 
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Amelia

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Rasmussen is consistently the outlier in these polls, sometimes by a wide margin, as they are now. How do they manage that? How do they defend that?
Absolutely nothing is wrong with their poll, if you look at their strongly approve/disapprove poll. That matches all the others about perfectly at -11%. The numbers used in the table you have is from the total approve. I am not sure what this means. You are right though, the Rasmussen number is an outlier.

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll - Rasmussen Reports?


That's interesting about how different their "Presidential Approval Index" is from the result used in the RCP table.
 

theDoctorisIn

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Rasmussen is consistently the outlier in these polls, sometimes by a wide margin, as they are now. How do they manage that? How do they defend that?
Absolutely nothing is wrong with their poll, if you look at their strongly approve/disapprove poll. That matches all the others about perfectly at -11%. The numbers used in the table you have is from the total approve. I am not sure what this means. You are right though, the Rasmussen number is an outlier.

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll - Rasmussen Reports?


That's interesting about how different their "Presidential Approval Index" is from the result used in the RCP table.
The "Presidential Approval Index" is statistically meaningless.
 

theDoctorisIn

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Wait, I thought that Rasmussen is "the best".

I always hear from conservatives that Rasmussen is the most accurate because of "likely voters", and that their constant outlier results are because they're the only ones who are right.

I guess that's only "true" when you like the results...

Something appears to have changed. How did they swing from results which tended to favor Republicans in 2012 to results which are something like 20 points the opposite way a year later?
I don't believe their methodology has changed.
 

Statistikhengst

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Wait, I thought that Rasmussen is "the best".

I always hear from conservatives that Rasmussen is the most accurate because of "likely voters", and that their constant outlier results are because they're the only ones who are right.

I guess that's only "true" when you like the results...

[MENTION=28109]Amelia[/MENTION]



Yes, in relation to other polls, Rasmussen (or better put, not-Rasmussen, since Scott Rasmussen has left the firm) is indeed an outlier.

But the approval polls are three day rolling polls. Not all firms do this. Some, but not all.

Rasmussen has a strong history of being the outlier.

In the 2008 presidential election, Rasmussen was consistently off to the RIGHT by about 4 points across the board in polling margins.

In 2010, it was the same.

In 2012, it got worse:

Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond: The moment of truth: how did the pollsters do?

Rasmussen put out end polls in 21 states in 2012, 12 of them were the big battleground states:

FL, OH, VA, NC, WI, IA, NV, NH, PA, MI, MN, CO.

Of those 12 battlegrounds, Rasmussen missed the call in 6 of them.

Rasmussens mathematical bias (average) of all 21 states was: R +2.81
Of those 21 states, Ras was off to the left in polling in 5 states, it nailed the marigin in 1 state, and it was off to the Right in 15 states.

But of the 12 battleground states, it was R +4.50
Of those twelve states, Ras was off to the Left in polling in one state (NM), it nailed the margin in one state (PA) and it was off to the right in 10 states.

Of the 7 major pollsters, there is no doubt that Rasmussen was by far the worst and most unreliable in the state polling in that year.

By mathematical bias, I mean the average of the polls in the given set, the average of their distance from the actual results. For instance, if a pollster does three polls:

poll 1 is 4 points to the left
poll 2 is 5 points to the left
poll 3 is 1 point to the left

4+5+1= 10 / 3 = average of 3.34 points to the Left.


It's pure, simple math. And all explained at the link above.

It was so unbelievably comical in 2010: I used to see a Ras poll, and then I would mentally move the margin at least 4 points to the Left, and bingo, that ended up being the end result:

2010 WA Senate: Ras said Rossi +1. Murray won by 5.
2010 NV Senate: Ras said Angle +1. Reid won by 5.

And the list goes on and on and on.

The special Senatorial in 2010, early in the year, for Scott Brown, that poll Rasmussen did get right.

Rasmussen also has a very strong tendency to suddenly "find" lots of undecided voters in Blue leaning states and in states where we pretty much know that the Democrat will win and come well over 50%, Ras will have that DEM candidate under 50%.

Ras tends to find lots a lots LESS undecided voters in red leaning states in poll, and I can prove it, for I have collected every single ras poll from 2008, 2010 and 2012. Well, actually, I have collected every single poll out there.

Many pollsters open up their crosstabs for others to see, including all internals. Ras does not.

Hope that information helps. This is Rasmussens exact track record, esp. in end-polling. It is a record that Rasmussen cannot hide from, because the topline data was made public.
 
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boedicca

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Rasmussen samples what they define as Likely Voters...seems very out of sync with the actual sentiments of the public.
 

william the wie

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The problem is that the Ds are likely to be in very big trouble on several fronts so Rasmussen is carrying water for the country club Rs to avoid a party split.
 
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Amelia

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Everyone seems to understand that Rassmussen is usually off to the right.

That's what makes their recent trend so mystifying.

They appear to have swung sharply in the opposite direction.

I guess I should look at their results for specific candidates to see if those have also veered left in the last several months.
 

Derideo_Te

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Everyone seems to understand that Rassmussen is usually off to the right.

That's what makes their recent trend so mystifying.

They appear to have swung sharply in the opposite direction.

I guess I should look at their results for specific candidates to see if those have also veered left in the last several months.
Stat is correct that Rasmussen's steering has a hard pull to the right and yes, you are right that is an anomaly for them.

What usually happens when they get out of step is that they do drop their rightward bias in the last 2 weeks immediately prior to an election in order to be "accurate" as far as the results are concerned. Since they are known to do things like this it would not be surprising if they screwed up this result by getting a decimal point in the wrong place or forgetting to add instead of subtract.

The problem with being a liar is that they have to be both consistent and never forget the lies that they have told in the past. It is when liars catch themselves out with contradictions that you know that they are untrustworthy.

So when it comes to Rasmussen I usually just ignore everything they publish because there is no way to be sure exactly how much bias they are using at any point in time. And yes, even venerable Gallup has become suspect of late too so it isn't just Rasmussen.

The indexes of the polls are a much better measure in my opinion and I ignore the current snapshot unless it is right before an election and focus instead on the trends because they are the best indicator of all in my opinion. I am sure that [MENTION=46168]Statistikhengst[/MENTION] can do the math but my experience tells me that the trend predicts the winner/loser far more accurately than any specific pollster.

Just my 2 cents since you were kind enough to invite me. :)

Peace
DT
 

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